Greetings one and all…oh who am I kidding.  Greetings the one that is all.  Thanks for reading!  So, in full truthiness, I went and googled ‘Full Nelson’.  I always gotta check myself before I wreck myself.  I had always heard the term with regards to wrestling.  Well, not real wrestling.  The kind where the big steroid guys shouted the loud, funny words before taking a chair up the backside of their head from Captain Lou Albano.  Seriously, that shizz was like stage ballet for meatheads.  But back to the point, I found out it does pertain to wrestling (score one for my tattered mind) but also no one knows where the term actually comes from.  Meanwhile, the pitcher I’m spotlighting today seems to have come from obscurity as well…hrm, I guess I should’ve just queued the awkward segue because that was, uh, awkward.  Neverthewho, Jimmy Nelson wasn’t extremely high on many radars coming into the year.  Oh sure, known entity deep sleeper type stuff but everyone said the same thing about him: He can’t get out lefties.  So far, that adage has not held true as he’s held them to a .205 wOBA on the year to go with a .195 against righties.  Now all the numbers say an adjustment is due as his ERA is a full 2 runs below his xFIP but how many pitchers are really 1.35 ERA pitchers?  And that adjustment doesn’t have to all happen in one start, especially against a Reds team that is near the bottom in wRC+ so far this year.  In short, he’s pitching like a pitcher who can pitch well and that’s all we need in this crazy little game of ours.  At $6,900, he makes it easy to get in a quality high priced arm without skimping the hitting budget.  So break out your Hulkamaniac shirt and bring your opponents to the matt with this Nelson.  But enough about wrestling, it’s time for my hot takes on the DK Monday afternoon slate…

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James Shields, SP: $9,600 – There are three things you can count on in life.  Death, taxes, and the Astros striking out a ton.  Push in the Petco factor and you have yourself a cash game ace.

John Lackey, SP: $8,000 – Give Lackey a low enough bar to hurdle and he’ll clear it with flying colors.  The last time Lackey had a good start was against the Brewers who have the second worst wRC+ on the year.  His next opponent is the team that takes the taco in that stat in the Phillies.  We can’t get any lower for you, Lackey.  Do your thang.

Jason Hammel, SP: $7,100 – Sometimes, numbers can be deceiving.  I see you, number 7, with your Snidely Whiplash ‘stache!  Ok, actually the number that’s deceptive is his ERA.  It sits at 5.19.  Meanwhile, his K/9 sits at 8.31, his BB/9 sits at 0.52 and his xFIP is at 3.25.  Which numbers do you believe?  I believe in ratios and we’re at three to one in truthful vs bunk #s.  Give me the Hamminal for today.

Brett Anderson, SP: $6,000 – So far, Brett Anderson has been hot poop warmed over.  To clarify, ‘hot s#$%’ is supposed to be cool but I said ‘poop’ for a reason.  He gets to face the same Giants team that he put up a -2.4 against.  It might be a little too early to rely on Brett as he’s still getting his sea-pitching legs but if you’re feeling frisky, Anderson could be worth the risk.

Chase Anderson, SP: $5,400 – Another Anderson, another ‘nothing is safe about this’ warning.  I could honestly see this game going either way.  On the one hand, the Rockies are leaving home for their first road game which usually doesn’t go well.  On the other hand, the Rockies now have had a day of rest after Sunday’s game was postponed and could be ready to roll.  On the third hand which is actually just a cut out of the Hamburger Helper guy glued to my forearm, Chase is a decent pitcher who could go 7 and K 6 guys.  What I’m telling you is this is a Choose Your Own Adventure.  Full disclosure: I’d give Chase a whirl if I build multiple GPP lineups but he won’t be a staple for me today.

Buster Posey, 1B/C: $4,300 – Oh, the top priced catcher of the day is the best play at C you say.  WOW.  I know and I don’t normally go this route but if Posey’s career numbers vs lefties (.243 ISO) catches up with his current poor seasonal numbers, that price will look like chump change when its all said and done.

Martin Maldonado, C: $2,800 – You want cheap, I’ll give you cheap.  Jason Marquis de Sad is on the mound for the Reds.  It’s not very often one of the worst offenses in baseball could be the best stack play of the day.  Enjoy.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B: $5,100 – I get it, Goldy has a great matchup but at his price, he makes my eyes wander a little further down.  At $5,700 I’d have to rob Peter to pay for Paul and I ain’t about that life, son.  This opens the doors to a Tigers stack vs a lefty.  That lefty’s name if he were a gangster would be Tommy ‘The Nibbler’ Milone because that’s how he pitches.  He’s gonna walk himself into trouble and then if Miggy runs into one, he could be trotting around the bases.  You feel me?  This all leads to the potential of moving Miggy to 3rd, Victor Martinez to 1B, and loading your OF with J.D. Martinez, Rajai Davis, and Yoenis Cespedes.

Mark Teixeira, 1B: $4,600 – Vegas expects Nathan Karns to become Karne Asada in NYY and given how patient the Yankees lineup is from top to bottom, it’s hard to argue it.  Mark is most likely a boom or bust play as he’s only hitting .242 but has 8 HRs on the year.  That said, he could also walk three times and score a couple of runs.  When fleshing out your lineup today, don’t forget about the Bronx Bombers in general.

Adam Lind, 1B: $4,300 – Remember what I said about Marquis de Sad?  Yeah, it still fits plus the park plays to lefties well.  Let Adam Lind you a hand…full of money.

Ian Kinsler, 2B: $4,300 – Could I have mentioned him in the stack suggestion?  Yup.  But I wanted to point out his pricing isn’t overweight considering Robinson Cano’s asking price.  Even if you’re not stacking the Tig ‘ole Bigers, Kinsler is a reasonable get here.

Matt Duffy, 2B/SS: $3,000 – With a lefty on the mound, most likely Duffy finds a way into the lineup in some fashion.  If he takes on the usual 2 spot Panik hole (something that should be in Urban Dictionary if you ask me), then the Duff man becomes a great punt man.

Kyle Seager, 3B: $4,700 – The price isn’t exactly what I am hoping for in terms of cheapness but with all the factors involved (great LHH ballpark and a pitcher who gives it up to lefties on the mound), it’s hard not to get a little eager for Seager.

Chris Davis, 1B/3B: $4,700 – I’m not sure if Hector Noesi’s splits are simply normalizing or if the sampling size be small but LHHs are getting to him so far on this young season.  It only takes one blast for Davis to go from Crash to Cash.  Put on your Eastwood face and find out if you feel lucky, punk.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS: $3,900 – I’m not hot about this call.  In fact, I’m not hot at all, honestly.  I mean, here’s my headshot.  What can I say, when they said it was a shoot for ‘The Gap’ I thought they meant my teeth?  But back to A-Cab…well he IS a cab…meh, I’m trying to punt MI today if I can get away with it.  Might as well punt with a switch hitter who gets to bat left in the best HR park for lefties I guess.

Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF: $4,300 – You can also consider Trumbo a cheap 1B play but so far Trumbo has a .333 ISO against southpaws on the year and has hit them well for his career.  You can also consider this a call for A.J. Pollock at $4,500 while we’re at it.  Yes, a D-backs mini-stack ain’t that crazy if you can afford it.

Bryce Harper, OF: $4,500 – The matchup says no because you’re expecting a lefty on lefty hate crime to get something from it.  Then you realize said lefty is Eric Stults and realize lefty, righty, ambihandedness…it don’t matter because Eric is *inserts man putting trash in trash can emoji*

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

You’ll notice I didn’t talk up the Mariners stack too much and there’s good reason.  Weather currently makes it look like this game will have a hard time getting in.  I actually think this is the game to attack if the weather is right as the wind is blowing out to right field and both teams have tons of lefties and the pitchers have bad splits against them.  If weather conditions clear up, I might be willing to treat this matchup like the game is being played in Colorado.

Doing Lines In Vegas

The odds makers must be playing with us.  The BALvsCHW features two very hittable pitchers and yet the betting line has this game going under its 8.5 run line and said 8.5 run line is already down a half a run from the initial opening line.  Obviously I didn’t talk about him because I don’t believe but if you want to do a funny GPP lineup, Ubaldo is favored at a healthy -140 in the game.  Meanwhile, Vegas has swung from +114 to -132 in favor of Brett Anderson and the Dodgers while the run line has bumped up a half run.  It may be smart to get in some Los Doyers bats for today’s slate.

 
  1. **** Made a big update a few minutes ago to PA/AB projections and % Start projections. May want to double-check your lineups. FYI, I’m in 3 DraftKings contests tonight including the $150K Payoff Pitch! ***

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Whew, go Rudy!

  2. Cram It says:
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    I read this. You sound like a guy who plays multiple contests on the same night. Do you tend to play the same lineup across them?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I do single bullets (one lineup over many different contests) but will also do multi-lineups of a similar fashion. Really depends how much exposure I want to the slate. Tonight is a single bullet for me, personally. The pitching is too sketchy to have too many variable lineups, IMHO. Plus I don’t have time to go in depth tonight like I do some other nights.

  3. Cram It says:
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    UPDATE: So there’s all kinds of rioting going on here in Baltimore. Curious if they’ll cancel the O’s game.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      They keep saying they won’t. I have my doubts. I wouldn’t want to be there as a player, I can’t see how this game gets in. I’m avoiding the game. Probably a good tourney entry since many will be off it but only if you’re doing multiple lineups.

  4. J-FOH says:
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    Choose your own adventure books? Nice pull. I forgot all about those. I saw the other kids reading them before I would beat them up.

    I go Rick Flair yesterday and you go wrastling today, is that your way of winking at me?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @J-FOH: I winked at you with one of my brown eyes. I have three, you guess which one. I got back from the conference on Saturday and spent all of Sunday with Holly so I wasn’t around the site much. I’ll have to take a gander at your writeup.

      My favorite books when I was in 4th/5th grade was Choose Your Own Adventure and ‘The Dark Is Rising’ series by Susan Cooper. If/when I have kids, I’m totally buying the whole series of both for them.

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Sky: you have already planned on how many kids you are going to have? Have you cleared this with Holly?

        I guess the lazy one on the left

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Much like my single bullet entry into DK tonight, I’m gonna go with one.

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