Since I opened with an odd title, I figure I might as well open with an awkward fun fact! Carbonation in your beer comes from yeast digesting sugar. Think about that for a minute…or better yet, think about what happens after you consume a bean burrito and go swimming. Do you get the general gist, colonel confused? Yeah, I’m just gonna leave that dangling out there. Ponder on ponderers whilst I move on to talking some Patrick Corbin. This will be Corbin’s 4th start of the year as he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery and so far it’s been ‘baseball’ successful, ‘fantasy baseball’ so-so and ‘daily fantasy’ blech. I know, I totally just sold you on him. But the key to this suggestion really comes back to Brewers and their bats and how they seem to have holes in them when facing a left-handed pitcher. For the year, the Brewers have an 81 wRC+ and a healthy 20% K rate on the year against southpaws. Given his surgery, I’m not going to push him for cash but for your tourney lineups, he makes a lot of sense. There’s potential for 6 innings and perhaps 5 or 6 Ks to go along with minimal damage on the basepaths and the scoreboard. Given its a Coors night, that along with his pricetag of just $5,900 could go a long way in helping your LUs. So crack a cold one and put Corbin in your lineups tonight. Just remember that beer carbonation is actually just yeast farts. Sorry, it had to be said but you know beer is tasty and you DGAF. So enjoy those ‘bubbles’ and I’ll carry on with my steaming hot takes for this Friday DK slate…
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Chris Archer, SP: $11,400 – My SP1 with a heart emoji in cash games. The Orioles are very much a boom or bust team a la the Astros this year as they own a 22.3% K rate on the year (4th worst overall) and a 22.4% K rate vs righties (3rd worst) but on the flip side, they have the 5th highest ISO overall. With Chris pitching at Tropicana, though, methinks we get the home of the Golden Archer tonight.
Andrew Cashner, SP: $7,200 – Well, that escalated quickly. This is a very, very top-heavy pitching night as I don’t like very many middle options available. That said, Andrew was straight Cashner homie in his last start…but you wouldn’t know that because the stats got rained out. However, through 4.2 IP he had 8 K in his last outing and I expect those good times to keep rolling against a weak Marlins lineup.
Colby Lewis, SP: $6,900 – It feels very weird suggesting a guy who got shelled by the team he’s about to face but the merit is there. The Angels’ lineup is very right-handed and Lewis owns a 25.1% K-rate against RHHs for the year with a 21.6% K%-BB% ratio. In other words, he’s been bordering on elite against righties all year. It’s a tourney play with reasoning behind it…I know, weird right?
Nicholas Tropeano, SP: $6,100 – I’m on the fence on this pick and let me tell you…that’s really uncomfortable. It’s one of those white picket ones and it’s really hard to find a spot where I can relax my muscles back there if you know what I’m saying. I liked Nick coming into the year as I even drafted him on my NFBC team thinking he’d overtake Andrew Heaney on the incumbent call up chart. WELP! But in daily fantasy we just need him to be good today and I think there’s a shot for some excellence as he faces someone coming off a Rocky Mountain high in the Rangers. Angels stadium ain’t Coors, bros. I’m looking for high K totals from Tropeano with the hopes he can minimize the damage with his end line.
Jake Peavy, SP: $6,000 – I know, I know, Ks are king and Peavy really doesn’t produce many of those but he pitches very well at home and there is some upside here for that reason alone. If I’m down in this price range, though, I’ll probably just be going with my boys Corb or Trop (you see they’re my boys so I can call them that).
John Jaso, C: $3,700 – A catcher who’s not really a catcher who bats leadoff. I know, it sounds like fan fiction but much like fan fiction, sometimes it becomes a book and then gets turned into movies and really tries to take gender equality backwards about 100 years. His name is Jaso, he’s reasonably priced, and he doesn’t make you uncomfortable with suggestions of sadomasochism.
Brayan Pena, C: $2,800 – Consider this the first and the last Colorado bat I’m suggesting. Not because it’s the best but because me mentioning a career backup catcher kinda tells you enough about the situation: ITS VERY VERY GOOD. We’re done with this analysis, moving on…
Victor Martinez, 1B: $3,700 – There are bigger names we could talk about here but I’d rather talk about the fact that Porcello has only lived up to the first syllable in his last name so far this year. Overall, a stack of Detroit bats is in play for me so consider JD Martinez, Yoenis Cespedes, and even Nick Castellanos here if you’re feeling frisky.
Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF: $3,100 – You’re going to get my first of three reverse split callouts for the day here. Drew Hutchison has been statistically weird so far this year. At home, he has a 2.21 ERA and a reasonable .309 wOBA vs righties. On the road? An 8.81 ERA and a .463 wOBA vs righties. Rogers Centre is one of the friendliest parks for righties. Hutch you make no sense! But you know what does make sense? Snagging some Mariners righties bats…so Trumbo and Nelson Cruz. Well that’s a small stack. That said, Hutch can get blown up so a full Mariners stack isn’t out of this world crazy and may be low owned.
Luis Valbuena, 2B/3B: $3,800 – Strictly a tourney-only call here but a lefty facing Guthrie can be like mana from the gods. Valbuena has cooled his HR roll since the start of the year but it just takes one bomb to pay off at this price.
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B: $3,300 – Reverse split call number deuce! Tillman has a 1.58 HR/9 on the year against righties and Logan usually finds himself batting around 4th or 5th for the Rays. At this price, you don’t need a bomb, you could make due with a double, an RBI, and a walk. I know, I know, the Rays have been bad against righties this year but those righties weren’t Tillman. In fact, I question whether or not Tillman is Tillman with the way he’s pitching…
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: $4,300 – Reverse split call triple lutz! Hughes has given up a whopping 23 homers so far this year and has been touched up by righties so far, but that’s mostly on the road. I’m going out on a limb here and aiming for A-Rod as I don’t think many will be on him in a hitter neutral park.
Jake Lamb, 3B: $3,100 – It’s the right park and Jimmy Nelson has been absolutely hammered by left-handers all year both home and away. Consider this a wink, wink, nudge, nudge say no more for David Peralta and Ender Inciarte.
Mike Aviles, 3B/SS: $2,500 – I’m out hunting for a punting and do believe I’ve found it. I’m not spending up at SS outside of tourney plays. Aviles doesn’t cost much and prolly starts because of the platoon advantage. I’m just as bored as you.
Mookie Betts, OF: $4,100 – Remember earlier when I said attacking Porcello was wise? Yeah, so is attacking Verlander. Wanna know what game could mirror the COLvsCIN game for offensive fireworks? Here you go. I’d consider a Boston stack without hesitation. That would include David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez and even Alejandro De Aza. It could get that epic people!
Kole Calhoun, OF: $3,900 – So I talked about Lewis’ splits against righties above for the tourney play. It don’t mean he’s gonna get the lefty Kole out. Lewis owns a 5.05 xFIP vs those southpaws. Even if I’m rostering Colby, I have no problem going with K.C. and the Sunshine Bat in my OF.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only game looking dangerous right now is BOSvsDET but at worst, it looks like an early rain delay right now. That said, weather is like magnets in that I don’t know how they work. That link is NSFW…heck, it’s just NSF anything, especially if you have musical taste.
Doing Lines In Vegas
We’re gonna look at some oddities before we move on to the real line discussions. Firstly, COLvsCIN opened at 6.5 but currently sits at 11? That’s gotta be a glitch in the matrix. I also see the run line for SDvsMIA go from 8.5 to 6.5 so perhaps there really is some goofiness afoot. Meanwhile, the odds for the NYMvsLAD game probably has all to do with the uncertainty of who was starting today. That said, it was supposed to be Greinke and now it’s Ian Thomas. The line went from +100 to -180? I am sure that line and the run line for the game will adjust over the course of the day. Keep your eye on it and important note: that game is a bullpen game for Los Doyers. Don’t bite on Ian regardless of the line. Of the ‘real’ starters going in the late slate, Tim Cooney and Corey Kluber hold the edge at -175 on the day. Do with that what you will. Outside of the Colorado game, BOSvsDET is sitting pretty at 9 o/u and it originally opened at 8. Giddy up.