First and foremost, I want you to know I worked very hard on that title. Like, I spent all of 10 minutes on it. That’s a million years in Fantasy Sports years so be thankful. Admittedly, I didn’t really watch Buffy growing up…or ever for that matter. Believe it or not, not every person who grew up with the 90s as their child/teen playground watched every bad show produced. Dawson’s Creek? Nope. Frasier? Eh, got the comedy, but it wasn’t my bag. Honestly, Seinfeld, Simpsons, and a plethora of awesome cartoons ruled my World. I’m here to tell you that Duckman was the shizz. Still is today. Also was a fan of The Critic, Ren & Stimpy…basically, cartoons gone wrong worked for me. I guess what I’m trying to say was, Sarah Michelle Gellar didn’t do it for me so I had zero reason to watch the show. I’d guess this true of most males my age but what the frick do I know, Duckman and The Critic only lasted 5 seasons total, Buffy 6! Alright, I just finished one of my worst fantasy football drafts with Nick Capozzi, JFOH, and crew and am drifting down the bitter path so let’s get back on track. Danny Duffy was a sleeper for some coming into the year. Yeah I don’t know why either, I’m just putting that out there. What I do know is that the Orioles on the year K 22.7% of the time against lefties and own a 25.4% K rate to go with an 80 wRC+ over their last 14 days. I wouldn’t go anywhere near him in cash but for tourneys, he makes for an intriguing high upside SP2 and at the middling price of $5,600, he allows you to price in all the big bats your heart desires. Obviously it would be a nicer call if Duffy were in KC but beggars can’t be choosers when searching sub $6K. So go…heck, I don’t know. I’m supposed to make a Buffy reference here. I like SMG in The Grudge, does that count? Let’s just roll on. Here’s my ‘at least it was better than Twilight’ hot takes for this Friday DK slate…
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Dallas Keuchel, SP: $13,400 – I wouldn’t pay this price in cash but as my SP1 in tourneys, I think Keuchel will go underowned. He’s been in a groove but has bad home/road splits overall this year. The Angels on the year are sub-par against lefties and Keuchel always has the potential to go deep into a game as well as keep a solid K line while he’s at it. Debbie may do Dallas but I don’t think she does Anaheim. Yeah, I’m not entirely sure what that means either. Moving on…
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP $8,500 – Jake Arrieta is the cash game play if you can figure out how to afford him and still put bats in your lineup that don’t require you donate blood to afford them. We got that out of the way? Good, let’s move on. Rockies have two hot bats in Arenado and CarGo with a possibly heating up Corey Dickerson off of injury. I mention them because Tyson Ross mostly shut them down yesterday with 6 K over 7 innings but all three of those players hit solo shots and Ross had a stomach flu. Overall, I still adhere to the Rockies not hitting on the road. Hisashi will probably be a high end target along with my next call but sometimes ya gotta talk chalk.
Steven Matz, SP: $8,400 – You’ll need/want to keep an eye on Matz’ status throughout the day as he exited his previous start after quoting a Beatles song. It’s always possible he could be scratched so stay tuned. If he is in, I can’t see how he isn’t even chalkier than Hisashi which may make Hisashi less owned given the similar price range of the two. Why? Because Barves. That wasn’t a typo, that’s their name now. That’s what you get when you trade for Swisher and Bourn in the twilight of their careers and play them every damned day.
Ervin Santana, SP: $6,500 – He’s faced the Astros twice in a row and has scored 35+ DK points twice in a row. And that’s really all I have to say about this. Santana might have learned how to pitch again and against a right hand heavy lineup that isn’t overly intimidating, I’m interested to see how much Magic is left in this Ervin.
Erik Johnson, SP: $4,700 – Your DGAF YOLO swag GPP play of the day. The Twins have not fared well against righties all year and have been mired in a two week slump with a 24% K rate to go with an 84 wRC+. I wouldn’t hold Erik’s last outing vs the Royals against him much. Not many pitchers, good or bad, do well or rack up K’s vs that bunch but the Twins are a different story. If Josh Johnson has a brother in porn named Gosh, Something tells me Erik has a bro named Erikt. Speaking of, he might leave you feeling that way after his start today.
James McCann, C: $3,000 – Not sure how to gauge the how and the why here but James has stepped it up against some decent arms of late and they aren’t even lefties. I’d be lying if I said anything other than ‘he’s hot’ as my analysis but if you’re not punting or looking at J.T. Realmuto for similar reasons, I’m not sure what you’re doing today at catcher. Overall, the Tigers have been very light hitting of late but I think Cody Anderson changes those things. I’m fine with looking to your usual suspects in Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez here as well, just not in cash.
Joey Votto, 1B: $5,000 – If I’m paying up at 1B today, I’m inclined to take one of the leaders in wRC+ over the last 14 days who gets to face a pitcher in Lackey who has struggled mightily against lefties on the year, especially away from home. Just gotta hope he doesn’t ask for time…
Billy Butler, 1B: $3,500 – Mr. Moobs has been on fire of late but no one has noticed or cared since he plays for the A’s and bats 7th most days. Definitely a tourney only play but Colby Lewis gives up 1.54 HR/9 to righties on the year and also struggles against lefties in terms of wOBA this year. A mini OAK stack of Butler, Josh Reddick and potentially a healthy Stephen Vogt could be perfect today. Meanwhile, Danny Valencia fits the HR/9 narrative as well so don’t hesitate going double dutch on some A’s.
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B: $3,700 – If it feels like you’ve heard about Logan facing a lefty all week, don’t worry, you’re not going crazy. At least not in this case…anyhoo, Forsythe does indeed get another lefty on the mound which means I get to tout his 3rd best ISO against lefties on the season when he does. Important PSA: I write tomorrow as well so if another lefty is on the mound, I might just CTRL+C this and CTRL+V it then. Overall, I’m ok with Evan Longoria but Wade Miley has pitched well of late so I’m not huge on challenging him right now.
Martin Prado, 2B/3B: $3,200 – Not a sexy play by any means but Prado vs a lefty isn’t bad either when you consider he puts up an .843 OPS and a 125 wRC+ against them. Nice and cheap, just how my cash teams like it.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $4,800 – Wanna know who owns the highest wRC+ over the last 14 days? Yup. Chad Bettis is on the mound…so is Seager gonna be in every lineup today? You Better, you Better, you Bettis!
Starlin Castro, SS: $3,100 – Hard to tell who will and won’t be in for the Cubs of late but I’m gambling that they’ll put in Castro along with Austin Jackson with a lefty on the mound. Now watch them start Chris Denorfia and Tommy La Stella. It’s Maddoning! But before it gets over looked, yes I do like AJax here as well as Kris Bryant and Dexter Fowler.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $4,500 – Choo’s second half numbers have been off the charts and gets to return to a park that benefits lefties, facing a player who can’t get lefties out in Jesse Chavez? I do Choo Choo Choo Choose you! While we’re here, let’s point out that maybe Will Venable leads off and provides a cheap shot at a slam and legs.
Chris Young, OF: $2,800 – Yes, it’s David Price. Doesn’t mean that Crispie doesn’t own the 9th highest ISO against lefties on the year. Was that a double negative? NM, he’s a tourney play; treat him as such.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
We may have some weather woes today so be mighty careful. CINvsSTL looks to have some weather concerns overall at the moment so be sure to check and see if it’s gonna go live or has potential to be cut short or even PPD’d. Same goes for CLEvsDET which looks like it’ll be wet and soppy all day and just a question of whether or not there’s a window of play opportunity available.
Doing Lines In Vegas
It should come as no shock that the Cubs and Arrieta are the heaviest of Vegas favs for tonight with the PHIvsCHC tilt sitting at -275 for Chicago with a 7 o/u. As I alluded to above, don’t let that over/under scare you, a Cubbies stack is in play. The second and third highest go to Iwakuma and Matz at -185 and -180, respectively. As mentioned, they’ll be the chalk. As much as I like Chris Archer, the Red Sox offense has been just too good for me to tangle with them and they don’t K much even when they go bad. Archer makes for an intriguing tourney play but not one I’d tout on today’s slate. It should come as no surprise that the high o/u of the day belongs to TEXvsOAK at 9.5. I mean, I only suggested about a bajillion bats from that game. Some o/u that to a half run slide are CINvsSTL, ARIvsLAD, and SFvsSD. The SFvsSD tilt joins TBvsBOS, PHIvsCHC, and LAAvsHOU as the lows on the day at 7 o/u. Vegas doesn’t really like my Duffy nor my Johnson calls but hey, that’s why they’re GPP, against the grain plays. The house always wins until it doesn’t, fam.
