It’s the oldest trick in DFS. Blah blah blah Rockies blah blah blah Coors blah blah blah all the money. It’s true. If you are the type to play multiple lineups in a day (as I do in low dollar contests), it behooves you to follow the blah blah and build a Rockies stack, as well as their opponent. Right now, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers, the same early season juggernaut that sees them second in road wOBA and tops overall against RHP.
Sometimes the Coors stack goes awry, but not in this series. It’s been some delicious soft serve home runs for many of the participants, largely due to the usual questionable Rockies pitching. Now Wednesday starter Chad Bettis has been better than most Rockies starters. After all, he does sport a spiffy 3.42 SIERA, which isolates the actual skills of the pitchers. He also has missed 10% of the bats he’s faced so far this season, a good measure of the man. Same for the other side, where Michael Bolsinger has surprised, sporting a shiny 3.14 SIERA of his own.
So does that mean you shy away from the game? By no means! There are some excellent bats to target, provided they are playing. In the interest of staying away from this obvious stack below the weekly DraftKings contest invite, here are the names I am tracking for the game today, presented without comment:
Michael McKenry, C: $3,400
Ben Paulsen, 1B: $3,300
Alexander Guerrero, 3B/OF: $3,700
Andre Ethier, OF: $4,400
Joc Pederson, OF: $5,100
The other guys, like Troy Tulowitzki, Nolan Arenado and Adrian Gonzalez, I would love to roster and with some of the picks below, maybe you can fit them in without sacrificing starting pitching. Good luck!
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James Shields, P: $9,400 – Shields is the lead favorite in the night’s lowest scoring projection. His 15% Swinging Strike rate is also tops in the slate and the Mets are in the bottom five in both road hitting and hitting against RHP. Shields is also rocking a strong 2.95 SIERA, so he’s a solid play for cash games.
Jon Lester, P: $9,900 – It was tougher to pick the second SP, as there are very good options on the slate. Lester gets the call because of a projected low total (7), his 10% Swinging Strike rate, the Marlins being 29th in wOBA at home and strike out over 22% of the time against LHP. He’s also the favorite in the game and I also like the Cubs to take some cracks against Marlins starter Danny Haren.
(Second Sidenote: No Corey Kluber! The adopted official SP of this space has been lights out ever since we sang that Brenda K. Starr tune to him in this column a month ago. However, DFS can’t be blind. Kluber gets the Royals in Kansas City and while they don’t walk much there, they don’t whiff either and generally make life rough on any starter. The Royals are 9th in home wOBA and 7th against righties. Kluber is an excellent tournament play, because he’s so fantastic and folks might limit the upside because of the factors above. End Second Sidebar. Will there be a third? Hopefully not, but no guarantees.)
Miguel Montero, C: $3,000 – Montero has been hitting the ball hard and is smack dab in the middle of a strong, if whiffy, lineup. Dan Haren does not miss bats, so you want to line up the hard hitting, power bats and Montero’s metrics around hard hit balls and expected power over the last 31 days, makes him an excellent play.
Adam LaRoche, 1B: $4,100 – LaRoche just keeps on plugging. His power numbers and underlying metrics have been great and Nick Martinez has struggled, historically, against lefties. He’s been better this season all the way around, but the weather conditions and Vegas line say that someone is going to score runs, and LaRoche is the best candidate.
Logan Forsythe, 2B/3B: $3,000 – Forsythe is pretty much lock and load at this price against lefties, and the matchup against Hector Santiago (4.27 SIERA, 49% fly ball rate) gives Logan the opportunity to flourish, as he did Tuesday night against another Angels LHP, CJ Wilson. Tampa has also taken to batting Logan fourth in such situations, which has been nice.
Ruben Tejada, SS: $2,300 – If you decide to go away from Shields, then Tejada is a tremendous play right now on DraftKings. His 2.3K price is mind boggling considering he’s batting second and has above average power metrics over the last 30 days. 2.3K!
Luis Valbuena, 3B/2B: $3,800 – My man Valbuena continues his all-out, power swinging ways. His 51% fly ball rate is impressive, as is his consistent, season-long power metrics. Getting Miguel Gonzalez means Luis will get to bat lefty, which has been his good side (because it’s his only side but hey, I’m just trying to pay the man a compliment).
Ryan Raburn, OF: $2,800 – I love Raburn under 3K in a matchup against one of the weakest arms on the slate (Jason Vargas, 4.84 SIERA, 8% SwStr). Raburn loves mashing LHP and bats fourth in the strong Indians lineup (11th on road in wOBA, 3rd against LHP). Locking him in with Tejada at short opens up so much moolah.
Jose Bautista, OF: $5,100 – With some extra cash, let’s get Bautista involved against (as of now) Nationals starter Taylor Jordan, sporting a weak 6.53 SIERA, albeit in limited time this season. Toronto is the 8th best road hitting team and 5th best against RHP. Bautista’s numbers have been excellent over the last 31 days, which isn’t a surprise. Vegas doesn’t have a number on this game because we’re not sure Jordan is the starter but if he is, Bautista is a strong play.
Bryce Harper, OF: $5,100 – Yes, Mark Buehrle is LHP and Harper only has a .434 wOBA against lefties compared to INF against RHP. Harper will still be in the mix against the hurler that has a laughable 5% swinging strike rate. And, as soon as Buehrle is out, Harper should see some RHP to make the grade. Sure, I think you’ll head to Coors Field with this top end $$, but if you decide to fade that game, Harper may be lower owned because of the L/L matchup than he would normally be against such a weak competitor
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There isn’t supposed to be any bad weather Wednesday, but check your forecasts as lineups begin to get posted. The only real bad weather might be in Miami, but they have a handy, dandy roof to close so the show can go on despite the rain. It’s magic.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The line for the Rockies/Dodgers game isn’t posted yet, but you can bet it will be the top line of the slate, likely no lower than a 9. The low point remains in San Diego at 6.5 as they again take on the Mets. The games have been playing higher, but still, there it is. The evening’s favored favorite at SP is Big Game James Shields at -150.