Adam Wainwright goes from the Injured List to the viper’s nest tonight as the Cardinals travel to Arizona.
Before going down, Waino was sporting a 7.66 ERA, which was mostly supported by his 5.87 xFIP. To make matters worse, the Cardinals bullpen was subjected to a lot of high-stress (and largely unsuccessful) innings in their series against the Cubs.
All Diamondbacks are in play, but I’ll prioritize the lefties, meaning Corbin Carroll (OF, $6,000), Gerald Perdomo (2B/SS, $4,200) and Ketel Marte (2B, $5,500) will be fixtures in my GPP lineups.
Let’s see how we can fill out the rest of tonight’s 8-game DraftKings slate, which locks at 7:05 p.m.:
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The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Kenta Maeda, P: $8,600 – It seems like every time I write one of these I’m recommending Maeda and/or whatever right-handed starter happens to be facing the Mariners. It just so happens that on this slate the two coincide. Maeda is in terrific form, and $8,600 feels like a steal.
Yu Darvish, P: $9,400 – The Pirates are a bottom-5 team against right-handed pitching on the season, and if you look at more recent stats it actually gets worse. Darvish has exceeded 27 DraftKings points in each of his last two starts.
Alejandro Kirk, C: $2,900 – I prefer to pay up at pitcher tonight, so I’ll need to save money at some offensive positions. With a four-hit and three-hit game over his last two starts, Kirk appears to be coming around. He gets a good road matchup against Michael Grove. If Danny Jansen ($3,400) draws the start he’s fine, too.
Brandon Belt, 1B: $3,100 – Right back to the Jays for another value play. He’ll see some fastballs batting in the three-hole ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. , and Grove’s fastballs are plenty hittable.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B: $4,000 – Jeimer has five home runs in July. A switch-hitter, he’ll get the platoon advantage against any and all relievers the Rockies trot out from their lousy bullpen.
Daulton Varsho, OF: $3,200 – One of many Jays popping on our DFSBot, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out how well a Jays wraparound stack fits with my D-Backs infielders.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Graham Ashcraft, P: $6,800 – Ashcraft may end up as the field’s go-to cheap pitcher tonight but, truth be told, I don’t like anyone under $8,600. Ashcraft has reeled off four straight quality starts, but due to his low strikeout rate only one of those outings yielded a serviceable DraftKings score.
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Luis Castillo, P: $10,600 – I think a fair number of people will play Castillo, and many will play Maeda, but few will play them together because GPP players just don’t like to do that. These two pitchers just faced off last week and combined for 20 strikeouts, and you’d take that any day for your $19,200.
Logan Allen, P: $8,700 – Allen might be learning to harness his elite stuff, dropping 30 DraftKings points against the Pirates in his last start. The Royals are well-below average (88 wRC+) against left-handed starters.
Travis Jankowski, OF: $2,900 – He hit second yesterday, and with Corey Seager out he may get some run there against right-handers. Normally I’d worry about the Rangers pinch-hitting for him, but the Astros only have one lefty in their pen, and he’s a guy they’re unlikely to go to in a high-leverage situation.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a small chance we get rain in the Rockies/Nationals and Mariners/Twins games. Since we’re interested in players from both, the situation bears watching.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Twins are home underdogs against the Mariners today. With Maeda pitching as well as he is, I think there’s value in taking the Twins on the moneyline.
The Giants have hit poorly against left-handed pitching all season and their own starter, Ross Stripling, has been pedestrian at best. I’ll take the Tigers on the moneyline.
