Happy Monday everyone, and welcome to the start of a new fantasy baseball week. The last full week before the All-Star break begins with a short schedule Monday that includes a day-night double header in KC between the Tigers and Royals. Speaking of the All-star break, this is the day where we get to look at who isn’t on the roster that should be. For me, the biggest Snub is Dylan Cease. He has an absurd 133 Ks in just 92 IP, good for second in the AL. Cease also ranks fourth with a 2.45 ERA and opponents are hitting just .205 against him good for sixth in the AL. There’s still a chance he gets in due to injury, or maybe a pitcher scheduled to throw on Sunday next week needs to be replaced. He’s no Joe Mantiply, but Cease should be there. My biggest hitting snub would be Austin Riley, who has a .908 OPS which is 4th in the NL. He pairs that up with 23 Home Runs, which is tied for second in the NL and the 7th most RBIs, meaning he should also be in Hollywood.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main evening slate on Monday, July 11th, 2022. If you play on DraftKings, it is an 8-game slate starting at 6:05 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you play on Fanduel I encourage you to sign up for the DFS tools to help you make the best decisions for your lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.
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Max Fried, SP: $9,600. I booked Fried into my lineup first as he has been the most consistent of any pitcher on the docket tonight. He has tossed a quality start in 9 of his last 10 outings while averaging 5.9 punch-outs per start. He gets the Mets on Monday who he held to 2 ER over 6 innings while striking out 6 in May. The Mets have struggled vs lefties this year with a .702 OPS, good for 20th in MLB.
Aaron Nola, SP: $10,000. I debated some of the lessor options here, but the K upside on Nola is just too great to pass up. The Cardinals hammer lefties, but are middle of the pack against right-handed pitchers. With two pricey options I will be looking for some bargain values at catcher and in the outfield to fill out the lineup. Honestly, my second choice was going to be Brayan Bello, SP: $5,000. at half the cost as he has the most upside of anyone below Miles Mikolas on the card. I just couldn’t pull the trigger for my main lineup. He will be in some of my tournament plays on Monday night though.
Carson Kelly, C: $3,100. – While Mitch Garver (Edit: – He’s done for the season) and Eric Haase will likely find my lineups where I played Bello, I will simply be looking for a cheap catcher in a lineup come time to finalize things tonight. Kelly has 3 Home Runs in his last ten games and has hit safely in seven of those contests, so that’s where I’m starting off at. I could pivot to a cheaper option with a good match-up when lineups come out.
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B: $3,800. There is only one team yet to crack 30 wins in MLB and that is the Oakland Athletics. One reason is pitchers like Adrian Martinez are taking the bump. While he does have some pedigree and pitched well at lower levels in the minors, his best ERA at AAA or above is 44 innings of 5.28 ERA ball last season. I like the Rangers to get after him as they have been putting runs up lately. Lowe went without a hit Sunday, but has raised his average up to .277 and has 11 Home Runs. Hoping to make it 12 Monday night.
Marcus Semien, 2B: $5,200. Semien is the most expensive option at second base tonight for a reason, and I can’t pass him up against Martinez. He has 4 Home Runs in his last 11 games and 5 multi-hit efforts in that span.
Manny Machado, 3B: $4,900. Manny and the Padres travel into Coors to face Jose Urena and the Rockies. He has not had any multi-hit games since coming back from his injury but did get the power stroke going with 2 Home Runs this weekend.
Corey Seager, SS: $5,100. Seager homered in his third straight game on Sunday and has 5 multi-hit games in his last 6 contests. It’s hard to make an argument to not have him in any lineup on Monday against Martinez.
Trent Grisham, OF: $2,900. Spending up for the top-tier arms, and knowing I wanted the Rangers stack means I have to get creative with this outfield to make sure I get some meaningful at-bats. Grisham goes into Coors against Urena with a less than wonderful .191 batting average. He has still been hitting at the top of the Friar’s lineup, so I will trust him to take advantage of the ballpark where the wind should be blowing out slightly.
Luis Gonzalez, OF: $2,300. Gonzalez started the first game back from injury this weekend and got Sunday off until he had to replace Yermin Mercedes mid-game. He should be back in there vs right-hander Merrill Kelly Monday night and provides a cheaper option that should hit right in the middle of the lineup.
Brad Miller, OF: $3,000. I wasn’t looking for another Ranger here, but Miller was sitting right there at this price range. It looks like I am all in on the Power Rangers. Miller hasn’t homered since May, so I’m gonna say he’s due.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Very active weather pattern today. Potential for issues in Kansas City, Denver, St. Louis, Cleveland, and Atlanta. Strong wind potential blowing out in Cleveland and Denver.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I did mention I do a bit of Sports Handicapping. Follow me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche for more info. I’ll give out a Free Play here every Tuesday, but you can find all my free and premium picks for MLB and a few other sports at The Odds Breakers
Aces abound in two match-ups on Monday night. I am taking the first 5 under in both the Mets/Braves at 3.5 and the Phillies/Cards at 4.