Ah, it’s the ending of another season, another era completed. It’s been fun, insane, frustrating, and maybe I’ll actually win a league (I’m in first in the playoffs in one, sixth in TGFBI with a chance at third, home league second, Razzslam, let’s not mention).
In the last article of the year, let’s go through the lessons from this season. What did we learn about the landscape in 2027?
New Top Dogs at Both Spots
Entering the season, Jose Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were the talk of the town, the belle of the ball, etc. To say the least, they disappointed. Bigly. Luckily, two new players have legitimately stepped up into first round consideration.
Kyle Schwarber is the top ranked 1B headed into next season (sorry Nick Kurtz). Long-time readers of this space know about my affinity for Guerrero. What you may not know is that Schwarber is my favorite current player, and third favorite of all time after Ryne Sandberg and Anthony Rizzo. Fantasy managers caught a break when he started to fill in at first base. As of this writing, he has 8 appearances there, qualifying him for first base. Lady and gentlemen, we have a prototypical 1B masher back! With 44 dingers so far, a league-average .241 batting average, and elite runs and RBI, we have a first-round pick. Schwarber at first changes the calculus at the position for the good.
Junior Caminero takes the top dawg spot at the hot corner. Remember when people were fading him? Well, look at this from my preseason ranks:
Any concern about moving to a regular ballpark affecting his numbers should be alleviated by the following:
A: He’s only 22. Improvement should be expected still.
B: He has the fastest swing (78 MPH) in the league.
C: Grey ranked him top 20 overall,
D: Projections still have his batting average the same at around .260, but still 35-40 HR. That’s good, and any improvement puts him at the top of third base.
And check out my Jose Ramirez:
The veteran still has to be the top third baseman, but don’t be shocked if this is his last season with that label.
To quote Grey, that’s me quoting me! All of this came to pass, and that makes me proud.
The Return of the Big Boppers
7 of the top 10 players for home run value play first or third. 15 out of the top 20. 20 out of the top 30. This is after looking at the Razzball Player Rater and home run value. You get the drift? The corners are the power supply once again. So, that’s going to be reflected in the ranks. Home runs or home run potential reign supreme. So let’s list off the 1B/3B who are the new generation of Big Boppers:
Matt Olsen
Alec Burleson (would hit 30 if not in St. Louis)
All of these guys hit 30 HR or close to it this year, are corners eligible, and should be drafted as primary power sources. Yes, I know Jac doesn’t, but throw out the adjustment months and he’s gonna get 30. Next season, I’m writing for power hitters, and I’m excited to do it. Chicks dig the long ball, right, Greg Maddux?
I’m ready to say it. First base is BACK.
Always Bet on Elite Tools
I know Pete Crow-Armstrong is an outfielder, but man, that breakout was one that I missed. In fact, I traded him in a keeper for Caminero, not bad, but not ideal. That’s also not the point. PCA had elite, elite tools and needed to fix his plate approach. He certainly did that! It doesn’t always happen like that, but it can, and that’s the fun part. Who are the guys with the tools that can break out next year?
Jac Caglianone: 97th percentile bat speed, great hard hit metrics. He put it together in the second half this year, and there’s no reason that won’t continue. I’d take Jac confidently in the third round and maybe higher depending on pre-draft helium. He’s a young guy with huge tools who’s making the leap.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Still great bat speed and K rate. Vladito’s expected batting average was .285 compared to .260 on the season. The power is the question; but his bat speed and hard hit rate were still quite good. He’s missed a smattering of games with back and general soreness issues; buy the dip for a guy with an elite bat tool. Vlad has an MVP-caliber season under his belt and many good years ahead.
Munetaka Murakami hit a massive slump after returning from injury. The power is still real, though. He does need to make more contact (like he did before injury), but look at his power metrics and that’s elite elite power. That’s the kind of guy who can give great value at a discount next year. We’ve seen guys rebound from bad halves before after they make adjustments. Bet on the raw power as a sure thing, if the plate approach improves, we could have a PCA-type leap.
There are more guys, but that’s my thought process. Here’s my top 15 ranks at this point for 2027 drafts:
FIRST BASE: TOP 15
| 1.Kyle Schwarber
2. Nick Kurtz 3. Pete Alonso 4. Matt Olsen 5. Bryce Harper 6. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 7. Jac Caglianone 8. Freddie Freeman 9. Sal Stewart 10. Rafael Devers 11. Miguel Vargas 12. Ben Rice 13. Alec Burleson 14. Willson Contreras 15. Munetaka Murakami THIRD BASE: TOP 15 1. Caminero 2. Kevin McGonigle 3. Bo Bichette 4. Alex Bregman 5. Manny Machado 6. Kazuma Okamoto 7. Jose Ramirez 8. Max Muncy 9. Casey Schmitt 10. Curtis Mead 11. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. 12. Zach Gelof 13. Caleb Durbin 14. Matt Shaw 15. Brooks Lee
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That’s it! That’s the season for me. I hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as I have providing it to you. I should be back next season unless Grey actually reads my stuff, in which case it’s been real, it’s been fun, but it hasn’t all been real fun. Keep an eye on Razzball for football (those guys are killing it) and hoops stuff (also killing it). Thanks for reading and for the season once again.
One thing of note: Vargas should be on the 3b list too.
Other than that, great write up!
Why Rice #12? We have an open spot in my league (:-) . Let me know if you’d like to join.
I guess I think the first month was just an outlier