Bullpen Report: Who Is Drafting Whom And Where

A bullpen battle is like watching a boxing match with a blind man in one corner, and a one-legged man in the other.  The ole’ mantra of never paying for saves is the cattle call of many Razzballians, but in leagues that we all pay, in terms of saves there has to be some semblance of order, and ADP plays a huge part in that.  No one ever admits to paying up for saves, but when push comes to shove in your draft, more times than not, you are most likely jumping at the chance to own an elite closer.  I love being the fifth guy to draft a closer.  It allows me the extra round to grab another essential roster piece, and since I am awesome at my craft, I tend to get my pick of the litter of who I really want.  Listen, not everyone pays for saves, but it isn’t an awful thing to do.  They do only really count for one category, with parts of another, but in reality, so does a hitter drafted in the eighth round.  That eighth round product isn’t going to give you, at best, a five share in a points league (minus Billy Hamilton).  He is the same product that we are saying don’t pay for and falls firmly into the SAGNOF sandbox.  So I am here to tell you that paying for saves is okay, but within reason of course.  Don’t be a lemming and get sucked into a bidding war or a run scenario where it leaves you completely short after the draft without any saves to speak of.  So here are some strategies and basic ideas I like to use for approaching saves based on formats and for giggles, we’ll be looking at some ADP stuff after my advice.  Cheers!

The best idea for draft day is a little different depending on league style, setup, and scoring.  In H2H, you basically want to have at least one closer, then mix and match with bullpen pieces that will accumulate saves throughout the week.   This is basically “anyone getting a save is a good thing” theory.  In a H2H, scoring you want to end the week accumulating between 4-6 saves.  That is all it takes to compete.  Some teams will have more, some will have less.  Starting pitching of quality is much more important in this format, as if you can win the wins, K’s, and usually ERA/WHIP with stud SP’s, then saves is just one category.

In RCL leagues, there are multiple approaches.  There will always be one guy in every league who wants to reinvent the wheel and draft five closers.  He usually wins the category by August and then starts streaming the hell out of pitchers.  In theory, it’s not an awful practice, but at what cost?  Wins, K’s, and offense.  Those are huge deficits to overcome when the season starts to dwindle down.  The number I tell everyone to shoot for in RCL’s is 120.  Last season, there were 1292 saves by all teams in the MLB.  Figure 7% (90) of those are from guys that weren’t rostered at the time of the save. That leaves 1200 saves to be divided up among 12 teams.  You only need 10% of that total to be a competitive franchise.  So what I am basically saying is that there are 30 MLB teams each with a closer.  Be the first to get three closers and call it a night.  While everyone else is scrambling to get bottom feeders like Fernando Rodney and David Hernandez, you can already be done and working on everyone else by round 14.  By wrapping up the 120 number by round 14, you seal, at worst, a seven in most leagues.  Of course, injury and overall blahness occurs from the closer spot.  Not if you draft the three, you want and need that by the time pick 170 is said and done.

ADP chart is using info from the three main sites we all use for drafting…

• People are buying into the juice that I have been preaching for four years about Wade Davis, finally…

• The suspension of Chapman has already dropped him in the ADP, and has had the ancillary affect on Andrew Miller in the chart.  Expect Miller to be around pick 140 around your draft and Chapman to be about the same.

• The Carter Capps news is doing the same to A.J. Ramos draft value, as he looks to be more trusted.

• This list is where I would cap my reach for saves.  Anyone after this list is a in the “Brain Freeze” category and I wouldn’t chase unless forced into a crappy run on closers.

• For me, I would start attacking the closer spot at Familia and then alternate every 2-3 rounds and pick another guy off the list until I had three by round 14.