Besides pooping, every fantasy baseballian needs to do prep work. Whether that be reading a publication of your choosing or doing a ton of mock drafts. Well, I am going to do you one better than using a mock draft to help steer your hand. I am using actual drafts that people do for money to lend you an ADP hand in the terms of closers. What else would I be doing? After all, I am Smokey, where only you can prevent fantasy bullpen fires. That public service announcement was brought to you by my own personal sponsor of Fischer pillows. Not everyone uses or believes in ADP as a source because some people in mock drafts are crazy, like legitimately Tehol-type crazy. That mock draft data is basically useless, but what if you had a list of drafts that were for actual dinero, and possibly some American money also? The NFBC is a great contest that we here at Razzball take part in and several of our writers have challenged readers, just like you, in these contests. They draw everyday Joe’s and experts from around the deep spaces of fantasy and all compete for money on varying levels of dramatics. Sounds fun? Cool, let me borrow 150 bucks so I can do one too. So I took that data from the past 35 days for a 12-team based ADP and broke it down into two fun categories. Drafts between February 1st and February 20th, and February 21 to March 6th. Just so they sound more legit, the first group had 88 drafts of ADP values to use and the second had 106. The number of ADP resources to draw from will increase by the time we get closer to actual game times, but for now 194 total drafts with data is at your discretion below. Only the closers side of it.
The 2018 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join with prizes! All the exclamation points!
TOP-7 Drafted Closers
| Player | ADP 2/1- 2/20 | ADP 2/21- 3/6 | Change +/– |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley Jansen | 36.46 | 36.51 | –.05 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 44.73 | 43.39 | 1.34 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 61.16 | 61.00 | .16 |
| Corey Knebel | 62.41 | 63.88 | -1.47 |
| Roberto Osuna | 72.92 | 75.69 | -2.77 |
| Felipe Rivero | 81.08 | 82.92 | -1.84 |
| Cody Allen | 87.76 | 86.61 | 1.15 |
The top six closers off the board are pretty stagnant, and with good reason. These guys don’t have any threat for job security, no committee to ruin the picnic and are awesome K contributors as well. If you want/need/desire a top 6 closer you are going to have to risk a top 100 pick unfortunately. I don’t make the rules, I just stalk bullpens.
Interesting Names After the Top-7
| Player | ADP 2/1- 2/20 | ADP 2/21- 3/6 | Change +/– |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Hand | 102.16 | 97.96 | 4.2 |
| Alex Colome | 110.27 | 121.41 | 11.14 |
| Sean Doolittle | 119.78 | 112.94 | 6.84 |
| Greg Holland | 139.41 | 157.86 | 18.45 |
| Mark Melancon | 148.35 | 151.63 | 3.28 |
| Brandon Morrow | 164.78 | 141.55 | 23.23 |
| Jeurys Familia | 164.00 | 153.69 | 10.31 |
| Blake Treinen | 162.22 | 159.96 | 2.26 |
| Archie Bradley | 177.97 | 170.08 | 7.89 |
| Shane Greene | 214.00 | 210.27 | 3.73 |
Alex Colome – Does drafting someone earlier with the hopes and dreams of him getting traded help his ADP. In this case I think it has and now Colome is on a worse team with far inferior starting pitching than speculated by trade rumors. he still has the goods, just the Rays are his limitation now. last year’s save leader will easily get 8-10 less if on Rays all year just by team attrition.
Brandon Morrow – He seems to have the job,m and is starting to win over hearts and minds on draft day. ha jumped a full two rounds in 30 days which is a huge jump. He has viable, but non-closer type arms behind him in eth Chicago pen so it is safe to say that he has all the leesh right now as the guy. I just worry about last season workload in playoffs plus regular season innings pushing him to 56 on the year. No great number for a reliever, but that is the most he has thrown in the last 2 years combined. Plus has no real closer experience and only 18 saves to his name.
Greg Holland – had he been signed to a team he would have an ADP right around Brad hand I would say right about 100. Unfortunately he doesn’t and now that ST has started he is behind the 8-ball and doesn’t have a job. Only a few teams could offer him a vault into the immediate closer role and until than we have to pray on the low ADP value and hope for the best.
Closer Chart
American League
| TEAM | CLOSER | SETUP | SLEEPER |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Brad Brach | Darren O’Day | Mychal Givens |
| BOS | Craig Kimbrel | Matt Barnes | Carson Smith |
| CLE | Cody Allen | Andrew Miller | Tyler Olson |
| CWS | Joakim Soria | Juan Minaya | Nate Jones |
| DET | Shane Greene | Alex Wilson | Daniel Stumpf |
| HOU | Ken Giles | Chris Devenski | Hector Rondon |
| KC | Kelvin Herrera | Brandon Maurer | Wily Peralta |
| LAA* | Blake Parker | Cam Bedrosian | Jim Johnson |
| MIN | Fernando Rodney | Addison Reed | Gabriel Moya |
| NYY | Aroldis Chapman | David Robertson | Dellin Betances |
| OAK | Blake Treinen | Liam Hendriks | Chris Hatcher |
| SEA | Edwin Diaz | Juan Nicasio | David Phelps |
| TB | Alex Colome | Daniel Hudson | Andrew Kittredge |
| TEX | Alex Claudio | Keone Kela | José Leclerc |
| TOR | Roberto Osuna | Ryan Tepera | Seung-Hwan Oh |
*Indicates Committee
National League
| TEAM | CLOSER | SETUP | SLEEPER |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ* | Archie Bradley | Brad Boxberger | Yoshihisa Hirano |
| ATL | Arodys Vizcaino | A.J. Minter | Jose Ramirez |
| CHC | Brandon Morrow | Carl Edwards Jr. | Steve Cishek |
| CIN | Raisel Iglesias | Michael Lorenzen | Kevin Shackelford |
| COL | Wade Davis | Jake McGee | Bryan Shaw |
| LAD | Kenley Jansen | Josh Fields | Scott Alexander |
| MIA | Brad Ziegler | Kyle Barraclough | Drew Steckenrider |
| MIL | Corey Knebel | Jacob Barnes | Josh Hader |
| NYM | Jeurys Familia | A.J. Ramos | Anthony Swarzak |
| PHI | Hector Neris | Pat Neshek | Tommy Hunter |
| PIT | Felipe Rivero | George Kontos | Kevin Siegrist |
| SD | Brad Hand | Craig Stammen | Kirby Yates |
| SF | Mark Melancon | Sam Dyson | Tony Watson |
| STL* | Luke Gregerson | Tyler Lyons | Dominic Leone |
| WAS | Sean Doolittle | Ryan Madson | Brandon Kintzler |
*Indicates Committee
Hey, Smokey. Why do you think the Cards are closer-by-committee right now? From what I’ve read, it sounds like they’re tabbing Gregerson. I know he has the oblique issue, but he’s not predicted to miss opening day.
@Pouss-Pouss: I have zero point none trust in Gregerson or in the Cards picking a guy by opening day. For th value point I’d rather draft Leone for basically nothing.
Hey Razzballers, the ‘Night of the Living Zombinos’ RCL is still in need of a couple more high-stakes players. The league is in its sixth year running, and has a $100 buy-in. Draft is next Sunday the 18th at 1:00pm EST. (Payouts: $700, $350, $150.)
So, if you don’t have a league yet, or you screwed up your closers strategy in your first one, shoot me an email at: [email protected]. And we’ll get you plugged in!
(*Like all RCLs, this is a Fantrax league, with the full, daily roto Razzball format.)
Smokey- You think Bradley wins the job outright on opening day? I don’t see a committee in ARZ, but I can see any of the guys winning the job, and if not Bradley, How soon into the season does he take over?
@Raider: I do and don’t if that makes sense. Box is a little behind and Hirano has done helium right now, but I think it’s a 80/20 Archie saves to everyone else in that pen.
what am i doing with devenski this year in my dynasty? i currently have osuna, giles, diaz, davis bradley for saves with claudio
should i be dropping devinski or claudio to pick up bedrosian, bearclaww, leone or nate jones?
@slimbo: not a drop Ks and ratio help trump all others since you have saves covered. Unless you are being greedy. Which is also ok.
Smoke Monster- What is your take on the Angels closer shituation? Just grabbed Bedrosian at pick 334 in a deep league. Hoping he gets the job and runs with it. SAGNOF!
@Bill Lumbergh: it’s a disaster. Baby bedrock is the value play but the angels commitment to going for something leads me to believe that holland could end up there and nuke everyone.
Thoughts about Joe Kelly as an option in holds leagues? How do you think Kelly stacks up against, say, Daniel Hudson in a deep-ish holds league?
@Anodyne: in same group but Red Sox win potential greater but with more competition. So having the best on a lesser team is not the worst thing to have.
Bedrosian! It’s finally his year! What round should I give him the reach around?
@Tehol Beddict: he really prefers a ski pole type thing. After top 20 closers are off the board it’s time for the U-God known as Tehol to strike.
Smoke-what is your personal prediction for Minaya and Claudio? I may be able to acquire them cheap but I am not really enthusiastic about either of them. Thanks
@Texas Leaguer: Minaya is behind the vet soria right now but only because if veteran preference. Soria is not the long answer there, unfortunately Minaya isn’t with or for at least this year. I think Nate jones leads them in what saves they get for the year. Claudio has success as the closer just not the arsenal to sustain it, Kela does. The Rangers are almost an avoid for me because of the uncertainty and numerous options.
Hey Smokey,
What do you think of these guys as potential closers:
Lincecum or Minor in Texas(if Minor isn’t in rotation)
Steckenrider in Miami
Leone in St.Lou
Thanks,RICK
@Rick Brown: no, yes, yes. If linc is closing in Texas than the Rangers are in trouble. Steckenrider is the goods arsenal wise and checks all the boxes you want, minus accumulation of save possibility. Leone is in the mix now for saves as Matheny doesn’t seem commuted to anyone even when Gregerson is healthy.
This is more of a Holds question than a Saves question, but would you rather take Scott Alexander as a fifth reliever over Pedro Strop?
@Kris: Alexander but they are close.
@Smokey: Also just noticed Nicasio went undrafted, but for some reason ESPN has him projected for 1 hold…doesn’t seem right. Still Alexander or would you go Nicasio for holds this year?
@Kris: nicasio over alex
Better drafting strategy in 6×6 league which counts both holds and saves separately. Draft top setup guys for each of my closers or just draft the top middle guys available? Based on past years I usually try to go with 4 closers and 3 middle relievers on roster at all times. Thanks.
@hankg: I am for matching the top hold guy with your closer granted the closers are elite. Think too 12-14. Than best available guys there after for holds,but never get attached to the last one as he is the easiest drop on the day after he just pitched.
Smokey,
I am looking for a 3rd closer in my 10 team slow draft. Currently I have Iglesias and Hand.
I am looking at Bradley (saw what you said above about him getting 80% of the saves possibly), Familia, Holland, Brach, Rodney, Gergerson, yuck, etc.
See any guys in that list that stick out to you? Or all about the same value?
Thanks
@Test Kitchen: Bradley is best of the lot with Familia a really close second. Stashing Holland isn’t an awful idea either.
Hey its Turd Fergusons from the RCL that drafted last night.
I ended up with Morrow, Neris, Melancon, and Nate Jones. I’m not really confident in any of them but hope at least 2 can pan out. How nervous are you about Neris’s save chances with news floating around that his role may be flexible?
@Turd Ferguson: hey man good drafting with ya. You basically need 2 1/2 closers our of 4 productive guys. You need to shoot for 110-120 saves out of that lot. Which I think you have. Phillies are a weird animal. They have bigger quality arms but Ibthink it’s just the way of the baseball world to say they are using the closer in all types of save situations whether it be in 7,8 or 9th innings. Be patient and work the wire and don’t beat me to any guys. Lol.
Haha no promises! And yeah the baseball world has been saying that more these days.. not sure what tendencies new Phils manager Kapler has. He’s young so he might toy with Neris’s role… much to my chagrin. I’ll be lookin out for your posts, thanks Smokey!
Thanks Meg! ? It has been fun.