Week 6 Fantasy Baseball Fact Or Fiction

The Injury Gods laugh at us once again. This week almost appeared with an executioner’s mask after Jacob Misiorowski left his start with, thankfully, hamstring tightness. Brandon Woodruff, Casey Mize, Nico Hoerner, Ryan Helsley, Yandy Diaz, and Pete Fairbanks. Luckily, Hoerner and Diaz are not diagnosed with anything long-term…yet.

There is SOME good news between the impending returns of Jhoan Duran and Daniel Palencia. This softens the blow for those who lost closers. However, if you lost a starting pitcher, or worse, a core hitter, do not fret (okay, maybe a little). There are cures for your fantasy ails on the waiver wire each week, and I took the liberty of sifting through this week’s notable names to determine whether they are fact or fiction.

1B Nathaniel Lowe (CIN)

Is Nathaniel Lowe BACK?? Well, the last two weeks of baseball would have us all believing it. Lowe has five HR, eight runs, seven RBI, and a .566 wOBA since April 18. He is slashing a completely sustainable .367/.424/.933 in this span with as many walks (3) as strikeouts.

The 2025 season was not kind to Lowe. He posted his only sub-100 wRC+ season and was so bad the Nationals let him go. This is rock bottom for most players, but Lowe persevered and managed to show life in Boston. His .280/.370/.420 line in 119 PA with the Red Sox last year was good for a 114 wRC+

With a fresh start in Cincinnati, Lowe is proving valuable. However, this opportunity is fragile. Eugenio Suarez’s (oblique) IL stint opened up everyday playing time for Lowe. If he cools down upon Suarez’s eventual return, he could be relegated to a bench role.

As things stand, Lowe is playing against righties and lefties. His career splits favor his PA against RHP, while still above average against LHP. Nevertheless, last year was a stark drop off for Lowe against LHP. He embraced a pulled fly ball approach, and that diminished his approach against lefties. He posted a career-high in fly balls last season (37%) and is posting a career-high in pulled balls (50%) this season.

Lowe is transitioning away from a contact-oriented hitter in his later career to keep up with the modern home run environment. This could work for a full season as he plays in the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark for half of his games.

FACT

2B Cole Young (SEA)

The Mariners’ offense has been anemic at times this season, but Cole Young has remained a constant spark at the bottom of the order. Young has three HR, 20 runs, 19 RBI, and a .286/..357/.420 slash-line through 32 games. He has nearly matched his 2025 counting stats in half the PA! This is a very impressive start for the 22-year-old infielder who cruised through Double-A at 20 and Triple-A at 21.

Young is not a high-impact power hitter, nor a significant speed threat. He can do a little bit of both, but with a fantasy ceiling of roughly 10 HR and 25 SB. This is a must-have player due to his everyday playing time and hitting ability in deep formats, but shallower leagues do not benefit much from Young. Even in points leagues, he is an “okay” fantasy asset due to his 21.4% strikeout rate.

There is a lot to like about Young in real life, but unless he moves to the top half of the Mariners’ order, he is not worth the time in most fantasy formats.

FICTION (in fantasy)

1B/2B/3B Casey Schmitt (SF)

The Giants having a fantasy-relevant player in 2026 feels unreal. Between Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Luis Arraez, and Matt Chapman flailing, there is little to like about this lineup early on.

Schmitt and Jung-Hoo Lee have been the Giants’ best hitters to start the season (that is not a good thing!). While Lee is forming into the hitter he was in the KBO, Schmitt’s surge is much more intriguing. The former second-round pick is barreling the ball at a stellar 14.7% rate thus far, thanks to a notable adjustment in his launch angle (23.2). Also, Schmitt’s career-low 18.6% walk rate is balanced by a career-high .301 batting average.

The big issue for Schmitt is counting stats. He has a great average mixed with solid power to start this season, but meager runs and RBI. In theory, the top of the lineup, specifically Devers and Adames, will not hit this poorly throughout the season. Assuming this, along with Schmitt sustaining some of the gains he has made, there should be a lot more fantasy value throughout the rest of this season. For what it is worth, Adames and Devers (albeit on different teams) started slow in 2025 as well.

In deeper leagues, Schmitt should be rostered, but in shallower formats, he is only valuable as a 2B or MI.

FACT

OF Nathan Church (STL)

The Cardinals are flying high on offense, with a top-10 team wRC+ in 2026. Jordan Walker, Alec Burlesone, Ivan Herrera, and JJ Wetherholt are leading the charge from the top half of the order. Meanwhile, Nathan Church is cooking (in fantasy) from the bottom of the order.

Church has five HR and three SB in 29 games. He, like the aforementioned Schmitt, has made a significant adjustment to his launch angle. Unfortunately, Church’s is much more extreme, which is leading to a spike in strikeouts (relative to minor league numbers) for the contact-first hitter. Also, he cannot hit lefties, which limits his weekly output.

Church could be a solid fantasy piece one day, but he is not worth chasing unless he starts stealing bases at an extreme rate. It is always difficult to buy into hitters who could not perform in the high minors until their mid-20’s. Church struggled until his stints in Double-A and Triple-A last season at 24 years old.

FICTION

SP Bailey Ober (MIN)

In Spring Training, it was so Bailey Over. Now, he is once again Bailey Ober. The former fantasy-relevant Twins SP is maybe that again. He has a 3.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 38 innings. This is a far cry from his disastrous 2025 season, where he posted a 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 146 1/3 IP.

Unfortunately, despite these surface-level improvements, Ober’s pitching quality is continuing to dip. Ober’s xFIP is a ghastly 4.64, while his SIERA is worse than last season! This is due to his average fastball velocity dropping to a career-low 89.5 MPH, causing his K-BB to crater. Ober’s 10.2% K-BB in 2026 is well below his 14.3% rate in 2025 and further below his career 18.2% rate. His career-high 8.3% walk rate is specifically concerning. Ober’s calling card was mitigating damage, but now, it may come in clusters.

Even with a 3.82 xERA resulting from an increase in groundballs, there is nothing (well, maybe *some* things) I would trust less than Ober’s weekly outing. His regression will come soon, and it will be ugly.

FICTION

SP Mitch Keller (PIT)

The lowest ERA in the Pirates’ rotation does not belong to Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, or Braxton Ashcraft. Mitch Keller is the team leader in ERA, after it improved in his Friday start against the Reds.

The former Pirates’ top pitching prospect is a veteran with an old-school approach. Keller’s 707 2/3 innings between 2022 and 2025 are tenth in baseball. He has not thrown fewer than 159 IP in a season since 2021! This is a modern-day workhorse, but there are still holes in Keller’s profile.

Like Ober, his average fastball velocity and K-BB are dropping simultaneously. Keller’s 93.6 MPH FB is a full two ticks lower than his career-high in 2022. While his 10.2% K-BB is not a career-low rate, it is still underwhelming. Fortunately, there is some good with his 2026 profile. Keller is inducing the lowest pull rate in his career, which is allowing him to limit home runs. His 2.6% HR/FB this season is a career-low rate. Also, his xERA is below 4.00 for the first time in his career!

Keller is not in the same boat as Ober, despite similar K-BB rates in 2026 and a worse SIERA than recent seasons. There are real changes to his profile that are interesting, largely due to his increase in changeup usage. To play on the safe side, Keller is best left as a streamer at home or in away parks with low home run factors (check StatCast for each team’s rate). He should be rostered in all shallower leagues regardless.

FACT (as a trusty streamer)

SP/RP Jacob Latz (TEX)

Not Robert Garcia. Not Chris Martin. Not Cole Winn. Not Jakob Junis (how did that even happen??). Jacob Latz is your Rangers closer for 2026. Well, at least for now.

After failing to invest in their bullpen this offseason, the Rangers have settled on their left-handed long reliever/spot starter to close games this season. Surprisingly, Latz is doing very well. He has three saves through 14 games, with all three coming in his three most recent appearances.

Latz does not have significant MLB experience, nor any closing experience, but that does not matter to the win-now Texas Rangers. Their goal was to put their best reliever in the ninth inning, and that is Latz. He has a stellar 1.02 ERA in 17 2/3 IP, backed by a 1.74 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, and 3.33 SIERA. Some regression may come via home runs, but with his ability to induce soft contact, it may be minuscule.

Latz should be rostered in every format for the time being, especially those where he can slot in as an SP.

FACT (for now)

RP Jack Perkins (ATH)

The Athletics may have found their closer as well. Jack Perkins is dominating this season. His 2.70 ERA is backed by a 3.41 xERA, 3.00 xFIP, and a 2.43 SIERA. Thanks to his demotion to the bullpen, Perkins’ average fastball velocity is up, causing his K-BB to swell into an elite 25.5% rate.

Perkins has the makings of a dominant closer, but showed signs of promise as a starter last season. The second-year pitcher could be needed in the rotation, yet that would be a disappointment for the fantasy world. Luckily, the Athletics are still years away from contending. They may prioritize sustaining trade value, rather than maximizing their young stud’s output.

Although two other relievers–Mark Leiter Jr. and Joel Kuhnel–have at least three saves as well, Perkins has three of the four most recent opportunities. He is the guy to own and should be valuable until the trade deadline (assuming good health).

FACT