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Today’s journey through the recaps take us to the 1st basemen. They’re better than the top 20 catchers for 2021 fantasy baseball (not clickbait at all), but by how much? How do I explain that? I have an idea! By recapping them! To recap my recap before the recap, this final ranking is from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments. This is not for next year. Hayzeus Cristo, just enjoy a recap before we get into next year. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2021 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – “Every year there’s a Cake Batter. We should have someone grab all the Cake Batters of the last ten to twenty years and see if we can find any commonality.” The preceding is what it’s like for Donkey Teeth to receive a DM from me. If anyone reading this understands everything in the world except what I just said, what I meant is every year guys break out like Vlad Jr., and we should grab all of them for the last 20 years and see if we can use them to predict next year’s Vlad Jr. Any hoo! We could’ve had Cake Batter in every league this year. Alas, I only had him in two. (Out of like five, so maybe not that bad — oh, I had more leagues, but some were NL-Only.) He corrected his Launch Angle just the perfect amount. He went from a circle who hits flat to a flat circle that hits everything. From the body of a couch cushion that you can’t get up from to one of those couches that is comfortable and springs you right back up. Like a tight waterbed. Damn, I love this guy. Preseason Rank #7, 2021 Projections: 86/24/94/.292/3 in 584 ABs, Final Numbers: 123/48/111/.311/4 in 604 ABs
2. Paul Goldschmidt – Think it’s time we put away the “guy is old” storyline until they are actually showing signs of being old across a full season. Au Shizz, Jose Abreu, Freeman and Votto have all put that shizz to bed before they’re in bed, and they’re in bed early because they’re old. Never again should any of us say, “I’m worried about (player’s name) because he’s older,” when said player just came off a good season. Goldschmidt had a confusing season. He had the highest exit velocity of his career, after many years of steady decline. Also, he had the most steals since 2017. All this with his worst BB% and more chase contact (usually leads to weak contact). So, yeah, confusing! Preseason Rank #9, 2021 Projections: 91/29/96/.271/2 in 571 ABs, Final Numbers: 102/31/99/.294/12 in 603 ABs
3. Freddie Freeman – As mentioned in the Au Shizz blurb, Freeman isn’t old just because his age is old. If Freeman struggles next year, then we can dust off the dusty story line. Until then, they’re just mature. Also, look at all the at-bats these guys had. I wonder if 2020 had the opposite effect on hitters than it had on pitchers. Lots of hitters played almost every game because they were fresh coming off a partial season. Preseason Rank #2, 2021 Projections: 101/32/113/.297/4 in 588 ABs, Final Numbers: 120/31/83/.300/8 in 600 ABs
4. Matt Olson – His Star Mitzvah was about two years in the planning stages, but the DJ finally showed up and the aunts are pinching his cheeks and telling all their friends, “See, the nogoodnik did good.” If I had to pinpoint one change that made all the difference for Olson it would be the polar opposite of Cake Batter, Olson’s Launch Angle flattened, but it was too pronounced previously, and now it’s less all-or-nothing. All praise Allahson. Preseason Rank #5, 2021 Projections: 88/39/102/.246/1 in 571 ABs, Final Numbers: 101/39/111/.271/4 in 565 ABs
5. Jose Abreu – Lot of the 1st basemen have become machines for certain outcomes. Whether it’s Abreu always getting a lot of RBIs or Alonso hitting for power or Au Shizz getting a 27/10/.280 season. Just machines of stats, which I love. Preseason Rank #3, 2021 Projections: 102/34/114/.294/1 in 609 ABs, Final Numbers: 86/30/117/.261/1 in 566 ABs
6. Max Muncy – Another machine of stats, Max Machiney gives 35/.250 like someone’s paying him to do it (someone is). Max Machiney’s also become one of those guys that gets his stats whether it’s in 140 or 110 games. Just need him to never catch whatever it is Cody Bellinger has. Wear a mask around him to avoid Cody-19. Preseason Rank #8, 2021 Projections: 88/34/94/.246/3 in 531 ABs, Final Numbers: 95/36/94/.249/2 in 497 ABs
7. Pete Alonso – Gonna vent for a second on a subject no one like cares about but me. I hate preseason projections. Sure, I do them, but they’re super dumb. People put way too much credence in what they say rather than treating them as a jumping off point. What no one says is they’re more a glimpse of what a guy could do. Instead, people are like Alonso is a .250 hitter. That’s it. Now, if he hits .260 this year, then next year, he’s a .260 hitter. That’s it. No one says he’s a .270 or .250 hitter. They say he’s a .260 hitter. Everything is finite. When nothing’s finite. Well, nothing we want to think about. Preseason Rank #4, 2021 Projections: 95/45/108/.249/1 in 584 ABs, Final Numbers: 81/37/94/.262/3 in 561 ABs
8. Joey Votto – Here’s what I said a month or so ago, “Whether or not Joey Votto is a Hall of Famer, it doesn’t matter to me or for fantasy, but I do find it funny (not haha) that everyone was talking about how Votto is a Hall of Famer when he was hitting .326 in July with 11 homers, but no one was talking about it in April when he hit .220 with four homers or (mid-August to mid-September) when he’s hitting around .200 with only a handful of homers. Even the smartest baseball minds (whatever that means) were kneeling in front of a kangaroo and blowing Joey’s horn about the Hall in July. Truly is remarkable. ” And that’s me quoting me! P to the erhaps I’m bitter because Votto is the first and, honestly, only guy I totally missed on in this top 20. Preseason Rank #37, 2021 Projections: 72/16/77/.254/2 in 531 ABs, Final Numbers: 73/36/99/.266/1 in 448 ABs
9. Jared Walsh – His splits pre- and post-injury are a bit of an Aaron Bummer. They make it hard to trust him, though, so I guess that’s a good thing. The less people excited for him, the better. I know the hestitation will be there, because I like him, and even I’m a little bit like, “Is there a concern here how much worse he did after his injury?” I don’t think there is, but prior there was nothing but confidence. As for my discrepancy in preseason to post-season on Walsh, anyone who’s read the site knows how much I loved him, and wrote a sleeper post on him, but I lowered him in the last days of spring when it looked like he was behind Pujols like at a bathhouse. Even the projections until three days before the season were 79/24/71/.281/1 in 487 ABs, then I changed them to…Preseason Rank #44, 2021 Projections: 32/12/32/.281/1 in 287 ABs, Final Numbers: 70/24/98/.277/2 in 530 ABs
10. Ryan Mountcastle – Puts on a full-body white forensics body suit, enters the tent with the recently-deceased, takes one look and quickly surmises, “This was a murder, innit?” We see the body is a fantasy team with Cody Bellinger. That’s Mountcastle, the greatest British TV detective. I see this list of 1st basemen floating above the written word like I’m A Beautiful Mind and the guys who have been here for a long time are floating down and Mountcastle is floating up. Can’t wait to see how high Mountcastle floats up, and wondering if he can lasso himself to Alec Bohm or Cody. Preseason Rank #17, 2021 Projections: 67/21/74/.279/3 in 512 ABs, Final Numbers: 77/33/89/.255/4 in 534 ABs
11. J.T. Realmuto – See the top 20 catchers for 2021 fantasy baseball recap.
12. Kris Bryant – You’re underestimating me if you don’t think I can take a very respectable, bounce back season from Bryant and make a negative out of it. Yes, you got value from his 120-ish ADP, but how much of a bounce back really was it and how great was the value? He hit for a better average and more power as recently as 2019. Sure, his 2020 was a mess. Well, if you hadn’t heard, it was a mess for everyone. If anything, Bryant’s ADP shouldn’t have been so low. It should’ve been around 75, and his end-of-the-year ranking was around that. Oh, and even my preseason projections for him were pretty much spot-on. So, his surprising bounce back? Wasn’t that surprising or bouncey-back. Preseason Rank #17 for 3rd baseman, 2021 Projections: 84/22/72/.264/3 in 528 ABs, Final Numbers: 86/25/73/.265/10 in 513 ABs
13. Yuli Gurriel – No one talked about Yuli this year, but his ADP was 290+ and he was nearly as valuable as Kris Bryant. Okay, I’ll leave Kris Bryant alone now. Preseason Rank #29, 2021 Projections: 70/21/83/.271/2 in 531 ABs, Final Numbers: 83/15/81/.319/1 in 530 ABs
14. C.J. Cron – Connor Joe Cron aka Curtis Jackson Cron aka Country James aka Colorado Jackhole aka Cronomatic aka the guy who you started while he was home and not away aka I can’t believe Bud Black played a guy who does nothing for a team that clearly needs to rebuild but I guess it’s no worse than Jesus Aguilar in Miami or anyone in the Pirates’ lineup except Ke’Bryan. Preseason Rank #36, 2021 Projections: 64/26/72/.249 in 444 ABs, Final Numbers: 70/28/92/.281/1 in 470 ABs
15. Jonathan Schoop – Bit surtprised he finished the year as high as he did. Thought he was more of a two-month schmotato vs. a top 20 1st baseman. The takeaway from that is if a player is great for two months, as long as he doesn’t fall off completely and continues to get runs and RBIs, he won’t be that bad at the end of the season. His pre- and post-All-Star break splits are remarkably similar, except for homers. Also, his at-bats every year are hilarious. He should be on the HGTV show, Bang For Your Buck. If you can bet on which player will get the most at-bats next year, put five dollars on Schoop. Preseason Rank #29 for 2nd basemen, 2021 Projections: 58/23/66/.254/1 in 474 ABs, Final Numbers: 85/22/84/.278/2 in 623 ABs
16. Ryan McMahon – He was a rich man’s Christian Vazquez. Instead of two weeks, McMahon was good for roughly six weeks early on, then coasted off that for a few months with some home allure. By the by, don’t ever say the word “allure” in-person to someone, because that gives them reason to punch you. Preseason Rank #32, 2021 Projections: 67/22/75/.245/3 in 477 ABs, Final Numbers: 80/23/86/.254/6 in 528 ABs
17. Jake Cronenworth – We’ll (I’ll) get to the top 20 2nd basemen and shortstops and I’ll talk about it in three of the next three posts, but Cronenworth had 2nd base and shortstop eligibility and those positions vs. 1st base? Nearly identical. Can’t remember at any point in the recent past when all positions were nearly identically deep (shallow, if you’re a pessimist). Preseason Rank #23, 2021 Projections: 61/12/67/.298/12 in 441 ABs, Final Numbers: 94/21/71/.266/4 in 567 ABs
18. Josh Bell – Bit surprised to see him so buried in this top 20, but I guess objects in mirror are closer than they appear and Bell was better than McMahon and, say, Walsh after July vs. those guys who did most of their damage on the previous side of the break. Also, wanna see what it’s like to nail a ranking and projection? Look at my Josh Bell preseason predictions. Preseason Rank #19, 2021 Projections: 73/26/81/.257/1 in 512 ABs, Final Numbers: 75/27/88/.261 in 498 ABs
19. Ty France – For France, this was a breakout. Call him Papillon. Ty France must live in the 11th arrondissement, because I like his “bat still.” The only regret I have with him is when I’m driving on the Rue du Ty France. *smacks French pun generator* Give me more! Preseason Rank #26 for 2nd basemen, 2021 Projections: 51/20/63/.277 in 474 ABs, Final Numbers: 85/18/73/.291 in 571 ABs
20. Nate Lowe – With Nate in the 1st basemen, you can’t get any Lowe’r. Do you see what I did there? You did? From a mile away? Nice vision you got! Lowe has a Launch Angle that would make Yandy Diaz blush, and Yandy Diaz never blushes, unless someone points out his Launch Angle. The irony! Finally, not to toot my own horn — if I could toot my own horn, I’d never leave my house *Groucho Marx cigar waggle* — this is the first time I can remember a recap position not having one single player who was unranked or projected by me. Preseason Rank #39, 2021 Projections: 56/18/54/.248/1 in 402 ABs, Final Numbers: 75/18/72/.264/8 in 557 ABs
