Welcome to the start of the weekend DFSers! We have a 13-game slate on FanDuel this Friday. The Twins send their ace, Jose Berrios ($8,800), to the mound where he gets one of the best matchups a pitcher could ask for in the Tigers. In the second half, the Tigers have just a 70 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is good for 28th best in the league. They also have the highest strikeout rate against righties at 28.2%. Jose Berrios has always had better numbers at home, and this year is more of the same (3.27 ERA vs. 3.45). Berrios should have no problem cruising through the declawed Tigers. My only worry with this pick is at this price, Berrios is likely to be heavily owned. Let’s take a look at the rest of FanDuel’s slate to see if we can find a decent pivot.
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Lance Lynn, SP: $9,700 – Pivot number one should be relatively low owned. Lynn is priced in between deGrom/Greinke and Berrios but has almost as good of a matchup as Berrios against the White Sox.
Zach Plesac, SP: $8,000 – Real talk, I’m not a Plesac guy. I keep thinking regression is coming, but he gets through unscathed. Plesac faces the Royals, who have a 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the second half.
Vince Velasquez, SP: $7,700 – Pivot number three comes with a park upgrade and against the team with a 75 wRC+ against righties, the Marlins. Velasquez has struggled against teams with lefty power, which is exactly what Miami lacks.
Yuli Gurriel, C/1B: $3,300 – Gurriel is such an underrated bat in the Astros lineup. The Astros face Jose Suarez, who’s allowed a 43.5% hard-hit rate and has had trouble with the long-ball.
Paul Goldschmidt, C/1B: $3,200 – Goldy’s had a meh first season with the Cardinals. The homers have been there, but the walk rate, average, and OBP are all significantly down. The Cardinals face Peter Lambert, who’s struggled against both sides of the plate this year.
Travis d’Arnaud, C/1B: $2,700 – After being released by both New York teams, d’Arnaud has smashed left-handed pitching. He’s put up a .274 ISO against lefties this year, which has Ty Blach shaking in his boots.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B: $2,700 – Unless you’re paying up for Jose Altuve, I really hate second base today. Cesar Hernandez is better from the left side of the plate and gets a good matchup against Hector Noesi.
Jason Kipnis, 2B: $2,700 – The Indians are one of my favorite stacks of the day, due to their friendly prices. Kipnis fills a premium position at a reasonable cost.
Isan Diaz, 2B: $2,100 – The ultimate boom or bust paydown option, Diaz is the lone power lefty in the Marlins’ lineup.
Manny Machado, 3B: $3,500 – Machado has crushed lefties this year, putting up a .354 ISO and .464 wOBA against them.
Jose Ramirez, 3B: $3,400 – Jakob Junis has allowed a 44.3% hard-hit rate to left-handed batters this year. The Indians lefties are gonna crush today.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,300 – Seager and Vogelbach have kept this lineup viable against righties and Trent Thornton is nothing spectacular.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $3,900 – I don’t usually do BvP, but this is too good to ignore – 15/29, 7 extra-base hits, .483 ISO, and .640 wOBA.
Bo Bichette, SS: $3,800 – Bichette is just a really special player. Quickly ascended to the lead-off spot and has thrived this year.
Jean Segura, SS: $3,000 – I really like this spot for the Phillies today against Hector Noesi, who has a 5.79 SIERA to go along with his 9.39 ERA.
George Springer, OF: $4,100 – Springer is my favorite expensive bat today. If you can afford a little Astros stack, they will not disappoint.
Michael Conforto, OF: $3,400 – Folty has struggled against both sides of the plate this year, allowing a 41.8% hard-hit rate. If the Mets can get to Folty early, they’ll face the Braves bullpen, which has a 5.60 ERA this month.
Bryan Reynolds, OF: $3,300 – Anthony DeSclafani has struggled against left-handed batters all year, allowing a 46.4% hard-hit rate which has led to a .264 ISO and .397 wOBA. Reynolds is affordable, projects to bat second, and has put up a .424 wOBA against righties this year.
David Peralta, OF: $3,200 – Jordan Lyles has put up DeSclafani numbers against lefties this year (see above). David Peralta should have no problem taking advantage today.
Trent Grisham, OF: $3,000 – I wanted to highlight the Brewers left-handed bats today, but Yelich and Moustakas are really expensive. Grisham will lead off and faces Merrill Kelly, who’s struggled mightily in his transition from Korea.
Manuel Margot, OF: $2,800 – Margot has a .420 wOBA against lefties this year. The matchup with E-Rod is meh, but at this price, that wOBA needed to be highlighted.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF: $2,200 – Teoscar failed to take a step forward this year, but if he’s in the lineup, gets a matchup with Justus Sheffield, who struggled in his only major league start this year.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Temperatures are dropping slightly pretty much across the country. Most games will be played in high-70s to low-80s with no precipitation in the forecast. I’m setting up a tent in the back yard and making s’mores with my boys. Enjoy the weekend!
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas continues to fawn over the Astros (-300), with the Cardinals (-230) and Twins (-220) following as the biggest favorites today. Looks like Vegas noticed the cooler weather too, as we have just one game with a double-digit total in Brewers/Diamondbacks (10). The next highest is the Mariners/Blue Jays at 9.5.
