I feel a bit, a bit, a bit, a bit, like a broken record here but these Saturday slates are killing me. Once again we have four whole games in prime time on a Saturday night. I’m pretty much all set with four game slates. I’ve voiced my opinions on slate size before, but in case you’ve missed it, I prefer a bigger slate. More choices means the worse DFS players are more likely to slip up. It also means there are more choices for digging up some value. In small slates, good plays are more obvious, so everyone has them. We’re better DFSers than the herd here at Razzball, so we want more ways to separate ourselves from the pack. For this reason, I’ll be focusing on the “early” slate, locking at 2 PM ET where we have eleven games to choose from, which is much better for us. For that eleven game slate I’m going with ol’ reliable, “Rockies on the road” and the benefactor of that, James Paxton ($23,900). Pax is tossing video game numbers this year with an 11.7 K/9 and only 2.7 BB/9. That’s a difference of 9 or in other words, a total stud. The FIP (2.91) lower than his ERA (3.39) is encouraging as well. Toss in the Rockies bats turning to limp noodles away from Coors and you’ve got yourself a stud pitcher for the day.
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Corey Kluber, SP: $23,100 – An overreaction to a few mediocre (and one horrendous) starts perhaps? All that did was prove Klubot has some human in him still. I’d still roll with Kluber in cash games and wouldn’t begrudge you for starting him over Paxton if you wanted.
Carlos Martinez, SP: $16,300 – C-Mart seems to have righted the ship with his last two starts going for 12 IP, 4 ER and 15 Ks. Today he gets the Giants in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. There’s still some risk here, but that’s built into the price and for the money, I like C-Mart paired with one of the big boys for a nice mix of safety and upside.
Jameson Taillon, SP: $13,100 – Now we’re getting into GPP territory where we spend down on pitching to spend up on heavy hitters. Taillon had been on a nice roll of 13+ points per outing until his most recent dud in San Diego. He’s got 25+ point upside though too and that’s what were hoping for at home against the Phils.
Steven Matz, SP: $12,200 – Matz has really looked good of late with his only blemish a 5 ER outing in Colorado, happens to the best of us. If he returns anything like his 5 IP, 6K, 0 ER outing against MIA last time out, he’ll easily pay off his price tag. Matz is at home, which is a bonus and gets a Tampa bay squad sans DH, all signs pointing up.
Anthony Rizzo, IF: $9,100 – You can bet I’ll be picking on Matt Harvey today. A few decent starts don’t have me convinced he’s suddenly back to ace form and I’ll take all the Cubbie lefties I can fit, starting with Rizzo.
Yonder Alonso, IF: $9,000 – It can be tough to fit the bash brothers of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor into a lineup, but Yonder is a little easier on the wallet while still letting you attack Edwin Jackson. Unreal this guy is still in the league, but go ahead and stack against him while he still is.
Travis Shaw, IF: $8,000 – Anibal has to hit a wall eventually, right? There’s a 3 IP, 8 ER blow-up jut waiting. Miller Park would be as good a place as any for that implosion to happen, so a Brewers stack could be in order.
Rougned Odor, IF: $7,300 – I wish this game was in Texas, but the benefit of grabbing road hitters is they are guaranteed 9 innings of at bats. I’ll take as many shots at Mike Fiers as I can get and I love Odor’s price.
Josh Bell, IF: $6,600 – Josh Bell is a warm body for a low price. I wouldn’t expect a multi-homer game or anything, but some steady production to round out a lineup is sometimes all you need.
Michael Brantley, OF: $9,900 – Indians stacks should be plentiful today and for good reason. Brantley might be the top OF play on the day except for Jose Ramirez having dual IF/OF eligibility. Brantley is priced as the 3rd most expensive OF option today but should perform like the numero uno.
Jason Heyward, OF: $8,000 – FantasyDraft didn’t get the memo that Heyward was Grey’s Friday BUY lede. That may be a very lukewarm buy, but it’s a buy nonetheless and Heyward has been hitting well of late. As I mentioned above, I’m looking for any and all lefty Cubs, so J-OK will be finding his way to my lineups.
Marcell Ozuna, OF: $7,400 – I’m pretty sure I’ve suggested Ozuna in every DFS piece I’ve written this year. Still, the price is low and the opponent doesn’t get much better than “Puke Soup” himself, Jeff Samardzija. Back from the dead and ready to fill the opponents box score. Stack your Cards!
Josh Reddick, OF: $7,400 – Not many players have been hotter than Reddick of late and a match-up with James Shields shouldn’t do much to cool him off.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s finally nothing but beautiful baseball weather to be had.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Charlie Morton and the Astros are the biggest favorites on the day at -280. I didn’t mention him above, but clearly he’s perfectly acceptable in place of Pax or Kluber. The White Sox strike out a ton too. I just think Paxton has been more dominant of late and Kluber is cheaper. Kluber and the Indians are also right there at -250 and Paxton and the Mariners are a little behind them at -170. TB@NYM has the lowest over/under at just 7 runs thanks to Snell vs. Matz. ATL@MIL and TEX@DET have the biggest over/unders on the day with 9 runs each thanks to Miller Park and Mike Fiers respectively.
