Fantasy Baseball Advice

To come up with the 20 biggest draft busts — pitcher’s edition! — I used Rudy Gamble’s fantasy baseball player rater. Some of the schmohawkiest pitchers, like Carlos Silva, I left off. Not because he was better than expected, but because he was as expected. That’s not a bust. This is similar to Tim Gunn’s monkey house analogy that goes something like this, “If you visit the monkey house, it smells like crap. If you live in the monkey house, it no longer smells like crap.” In each entry of the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, you’ll find the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Forget the Plunger, Call the Plumber (FPCP) metric, which I made up to illustrate how badly some of these fantasy baseball pitchers shat your proverbial house. Anyway, here’s the 20 biggest draft busts of 2008, the pitchers:

20. Daniel Cabrera - No, this is the year for the breakout! No, wait… I mean, next year!… Or 2010! Yes, definitely by 2010. ADP, 329 — FPCP, 1.3

19. Matt Cain - His numbers are actually close to what I was worried Lincecum would do. Good Ks, decent ERA but an 8-14 record. ADP, 131 — FPCP, 2.1

18. Jeremy Bonderman - Frankly, I don’t know anyone that drafted him, so maybe he doesn’t deserve to be on this list. Then again, he has an average draft position of 169 so someone drafted him. Hmm… Maybe fantasy baseball is really popular in Michigan and these numbers are skewed by Tigers fans. I’ll need a statistician with lots of free time to figure this out. Email me at totallyeffinbored [at] razzball.com. ADP, 169 — FPCP, 2.5

17. Josh Beckett - Not really an awful year, but you wanted more than a 12-10 record. This is the problem with Wins. “When I say no rhyme, you say no reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” ADP, 44 — FPCP, 3.7

16. Carlos Zambrano - 130 Ks in almost 190 innings is a major problem. Another problem, never knowing if you were going to get “Thanks for the no-hitter, Big Z!” or “Z just soiled my team’s linens.” ADP, 66 — FPCP, 4.9

15. Johnny Cueto - Hey, it’s the wunderkind! Hey, wunderkind, how are ya doing? Say hello to ya mother for me. Undrafted according to Mock Draft Central, but you know you drafted him. FPCP, 5.5

14. John Maine - I had high (big) apple pie in the sky hopes for this schmohawk. He gave you some stretches where he was decent. Other times, he gave you stretch marks on your ulcer. ADP, 133 — FPCP, 6.2

13. Jeff Francis - Luckily for fantasy baseballers (<–that sounds like something my Mom would say), Jeff Francis pitches at Coors so it makes dropping him feel much easier. ADP, 152 — FPCP, 6.9

12. J.J. Putz/Chad Cordero - This was supposed to be for just starters, but, well, these closers busted. Why did I put them at 12? Cause it’s my list. ADP, High — FPCP, 7.4

11. Francisco Liriano - What, you drafted him in March for six solid starts in August? Yeah, a’ight. ADP, 112 — FPCP, 9.1

10. Pedro Martinez - Watching Pedro this year, Nelson de la Rosa rolled over in his shoe box. ADP, 160 — FPCP, 9.5

9. Yovani Gallardo - At least he had the decency to go down early in the year. It still hurt watching him grab his knee like he was just put in the Figure Four Leg Lock. ADP, 135 — FPCP, 10.1

8. Ian Snell - He was supposed to be a hidden gem at the end of the draft. Instead, he was the backwash at the end of a draft beer. ADP, 154 — FPCP, 10.3

7. Chien-Ming Wang - If you drafted Wang, his injury was a blow. And that’s the only time it’s upsetting to see “blow” and “Wang” in the same sentence. ADP, 146 — FPCP, 11.2

6. Rich Hill - Right now Rich Hill is reenacting spring training using vegetables, and whenever Sweet Lou Potato tells him he’s going to the minors, he mashes him. Or not! ADP, 113 — FPCP, 12.1

5. John Smoltz - Sadly, this might be the last we see of him. Hey, I just got schmaltzy for Smoltzy. (<–alliteration in lieu of wit) ADP, 82 — FPCP, 13.9

4. Fausto Carmona - When Sabathia stood up from the Indians seesaw, Carmona fell and never recovered. ADP, 106 — FPCP, 15.6

3. Erik Bedard - It could’ve been worse. He could’ve been healthy and terrible. BTW, I picked Bedard to win the AL Cy Young. See Verlander, Justin. ADP, 39 — FPCP, 17.1

2. Aaron Harang - Instead of 184.1 innings of a 4.78 ERA with a 6-17 record, Harang should’ve put a sweaty glass down on my Reggie Jackson rookie card while recording a sex tape with my girlfriend. ADP, 72 — FPCP, 19.5

1. Justin Verlander - 200 innings of suck?! For crimey’s sake, man. Help a brother out — get injured! Take a knee! Something! BTW II, Rudy picked Verlander to win the AL Cy Young. Ladies and gentlemen, your Razzball ‘perts! ADP, 62 — FPCP, 19.7

Yesterday Ramon Something-or-other hit two home runs. Ben Zobrist (a quarter Jewish, not too shabby!) hit two home runs. Others getting in on the action were Mike Hessman, Ryan Raburn (who sounds like he should be dating Angela Lansbury), Casey McGehee, Control Alt-Delete, Jeff Bailey, Francisco Cervelli, Cousin Jerri and lots of dudes that don’t even have pictures in their ESPN player profile so I just assume they all look like a young Micah Hoffpauir. With half of these guys, you don’t know if you’re watching your brother Rob or Disco Bob. You name ‘em, and they’re starting right now. Really bad time to be trying to make up some offense. Your absolute best bet right now is to load up on Brewers, Mets, Twins, White Sox and Phils. There is also something to starting guys that are going against these teams. Many times opposing managers will play their regulars as an unwritten law of sportsmanship. (Oh, no! I wrote it!)  Finally, look for guys that are going for personal accomplishments. For instance, Mussina goes this Sunday for his 20th win. The Yankees and Mussina will give it their all on Sunday. Everyone else, there’s no saying if they’re going to start. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mariano Rivera - Done for the year with a sore shoulder. I imagine Girardi’s so pissed at the mess Torre left him that he can’t even watch a movie that stars Paul Sorvino. Joba Chamberlain will close in Mariano’s place.

Pedro Martinez - Pedro really wanted to help the Mets in some big games. He’s not. It’s actually pretty depressing watching him pitch. He was incredible for some many years. Last night I kinda felt like I was watching him for the last time. Guys who carry around dwarfs aren’t supposed to go out like this!

Micah Hoffpauir - 5-for-5 with 2 HRs yesterday. He had a huge season at Triple-A this year and should see playing time this weekend. Definitely worth a look.

Scot Shields - Got the save yesterday and might get more this weekend as the Angels prepare for the playoffs.

Cliff Lee - Good chance he does NOT pitch on Sunday. (Supersized “not” is for our elderly readers. Hey, they’re showing Car 54, Where Are You? reruns! Ever notice how old people always specify when something is a rerun? Like we didn’t know a show that was off the air for 20 years wasn’t live.)

Mark Reynolds - Sets the strikeout record with 201 Ks. In the beginning of the year, Reynolds said he would not let striking out hinder his approach at the plate. Here’s the thing, Whiffie. 201 strikeouts kinda hinders your approach at the plate. Cust kayin’.

Anibal Sanchez - Lost his last start of the year to rain. Damn, Joba, stop dancing.

Troy Percival - Returned to action yesterday. Had this to say, “The run in from the bullpen is a bit much. Maybe we should bring back the bullpen cars.”

Yovani Gallardo - Did what was expected. Pitched well for 4 innings. Thankfully he didn’t reinjure himself. But there’s always the playoffs.

Carlos Gomez - 4-for-5 yesterday. Obviously he likes playing in April and September.

Kaz Matsui - 3-for-3 yesterday. He’s hit in 7 straight. Those chasing steals in these final days might wanna look at K-Mat aka Godzilla Jr.

Ichiro Suzuki - Supposedly some Mariners players wanted to knock Ichiro out. As in punch him and not stop. Here’s the story. Few things spring to mind — Point #1, All the players on that team and Ichiro is the one you want to beat up? The Mariners play the blame game as well as they play baseball. Point #2, Have any of them seen him run to first? Who was going to catch him? Carlos Silva? Which brings me back to point number #1. Beat up Carlos Silva! Point #3, Ichiro will crane kick your ass. Wax on, wax off, Jose Lopez.

First the Brewers fire their manager in September, then they pitch CC on three days rest for about a month after letting him throw 150 pitches per start for two months and now they rush back their prized pitcher, Yovani Gallardo. The Brewers are officially trying to choke worse than the Mets, while the Mets are showing they weren’t one-flop wonders last year. Too bad the Astros and the Diamondbacks just flat out sucked for three months or they’d be battling for the Wild Card. Gallardo will probably only get to the fourth or fifth inning so he might not have much value. Then again, the Brewers may let him throw 100+ pitches until he turns the ball over to Sabathia for the final three innings. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark DeRosa - HR yesterday and then a leg injury forced him out of the game. Ah, the agony and the ecstasy… What? I was being poetic.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday for the 4th game in a row. I told you to pick up Blalock two days before he hit his first. But whatever, you like to be difficult. It’s your thing.

Michael Young - 4-for-4, I think he still has, like, a fractured finger or something. If not scoring the winning run would help the Rangers go into extra innings and allow Young a chance for 200 hits, he would not score that run.

Carlos Zambrano - Since his no-hitter, he’s been a crap satay.

Willy Taveras - Done for the season with a stress fracture. Back date this to August. Dude stole 68 bases this year and collected only 64 runs. According to Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first time in a long time, maybe even forever, that someone stole as many as 68 bases and failed to score that many runs. Okay, maybe they didn’t say that. But here are some things heard around Elias Sports Bureau’s office in the last week, “Gloria, Roy’s secretary, said ‘It’s Jayson Stark calling’ thirty-eight times this week for a new office record,” “Roy said ‘Tell Stark I’m in a meeting’ a record thirty-eight times this week,” and “For a record ten times in one day, Mike coughed “loser” when asked if he was going to William’s birthday party.”

David DeJesus - Left yesterday’s game with a high hip flexor something or other. May not play again this year. Buh-but the Royals are fighting for 4th place!

Edinson Volquez - Likely done for the year. Finally drafting Cueto and Harang before Volquez looks like a smart move.

Andy Pettitte - Done for the year. Aceves will start on Saturday. I like that start, friend.

Ryan Franklin - Got another save. Looks like he’s the Cards closer for the final weekend. Do take note, save vultures.

Manny Delcarmen - There’s more vulture saves where that came from, carcass breath. The Sawx rested Papelbon and gave the save to Manny of Carmen.

Cameron Maybin - 3-for-3 with a steal before leaving the game with a stiff hip. Two stiff hips and he wouldn’t be able to walk out of the bar. Ladies and gentlemen, Kevin Eubanks.

Rafael Furcal - Was activated from the DL, and got into the game as a pinch hitter in the 8th inning. I wouldn’t expect too much from him these final few days; Torre says he’ll play “here and there. And I love cannolis.”

Adam Wainwright - In his last start of the year, gave up two earned in six innings. Decent return from injury in the 2nd half. That real upside of his struggles this year will be the fresh arm he’ll have next year. He’ll be on 75% of my teams next year, fo sho.

Mark Reynolds - His 199th K last night to tie the major league record. Earlier in the year, Rudy and I had a friendly wager going for who would strikeout the most, Cust or Reynolds. Unless Cust Ks eight more times than Reynolds this weekend, I should have it locked up. In other words, this bet is still very much undecided.

Max Scherzer - 5 IP, 2 ER. Last start of the year and he’s had prettier ones. I will write a lot more about Jobacum this offseason.

Todd Jones - He’s thrown his last 76 MPH fastball as he announced his retirement in his The Sporting News column. Other topics he covered in his column, “Real Men Rely on Finesse,” “Pussies Throw Fast,” and “Where have you gone, Fu Manchu mustache?” Pour some prune juice out for Jones.

Usually a pitcher’s third season in the bigs is the year they truly break out. Another factor to look for is their BB/9, is it trending downwards? Another factor, is K/9 trending upwards? WHIP heading down? Innings aren’t piling on too fast? ERA, while not really a great stat, is it heading down? BABIP fine? On a team that can win some games? Check. Check. Check. Double check. Check. Yup. Oh, yeah. Uh-huh and you betcha. I might sound flippant at times, but I’m not shooting from the hip. And definitely no hip shooting, when I pegged Rich Hill as a breakout for the 2008 season. Hill had my faith. All of the data I looked at told me to ignore his spring training mechanics issue. He would figure it out. According to WebMD, Rich Hill came down with Ankielitis. A rare condition when stats don’t matter nearly as much as a psychiatrist’s opinion. He is a shook one. Maybe Greinke can sponsor him on his road back from his ‘psyche ache.’ Until then, I suggest you drop Hill in all but the deepest of leagues. I’m holding onto him right now in a NL-Only league. In all other leagues, I’ll be cutting ties. Goodbye, Hill. Oh, yeah, goodbye to Gallardo, as well. His injury isn’t the kind he’s going to come back from any time soon. You should cut ties with him in all one year leagues. That’s if you’re paying attention. (I hate people who abandon teams. But then you wouldn’t be reading this if you abandon teams, unless you just like to be contrary.) To replace Hill and/or Gallardo, I’m looking at these guys (obviously depends on league depth): Shawn Hill, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Lieber, Tom Gorzelanny (extremely high risk, and I wouldn’t start him until he shows he can be decent), Mark Buehrle (not an every start starter), Jo-Jo Reyes (high risk, high reward), Jason Schmidt (looking for a late-May/early-June return, expect setbacks), Braden Looper (not an every start starter) and Aaron Laffey (probably loses his starting job when Westbrook returns). All and all… Ugh. But the show must go on. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Taylor Buchholz - Now setting up Fuentes. I picked him up in a NL-only league and got a random save. Hey, if you’re trolling for MRs, you can do worse.

Aaron Laffey - Sometimes teams don’t have scouting reports on guys and they sneak through. Consider Laffey a sneaker at this point.

Mike Jacobs - I tried to trade him for Saito in one league. (The team announced they were punting saves and I figured I’d make a run at their only closer.) Anyway, I was denied. Hey, if you hit on enough girls, eventually you get laid. I think this non-trade could end up benefiting me in the end. That’s if Jacobs’s finger holds up.

Nick Markakis - Hit his six out of the parkakis on Sunday and he’s a second half hitter.

Kenny Rogers - Yesterday, I watched some Baseball Tonight for the first time all year. (They should consider hiring a homeless person to dress as Kruk and dole out some insight. Ravich, “Kenny Rogers can still get out of jams.” Homeless Kruk, “I urinate in public!”) The reason why I mention this because now on Baseball Tonight they highlight someone from each team in their “Fantasy Impact” section. (Maybe this is an old feature, but I don’t usually watch Baseball Tonight. I just watch the games.) So in their Fantasy Impact section for the Twins/Tigers game, who do they focus on? Cabrera? Morneau? Gomez? Sheffield? Any hitter on either team? Nope, Kenny Rogers. I kid you not. They run his line like this is helpful to someone. Outside of AL-Only leagues, is he even on anyone’s team? I think I’m getting an ulcer. Thanks, Baseball Tonight!

Joe Saunders - Kruk, “Give up solo home runs. That’s what great ones do.” Somewhere Bert Blyleven is smiling. Anyway, Saunders shouldn’t have won this game. He was very hittable.

Carlos Ruiz - Hit a home run on Sunday. Another preseason fave of mine that fell out of favor, but maybe he can get hot. If you’re still looking for a catcher, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to turn things around.

Santiago Casilla - Still no runs given up. I don’t think he reaches Orel’s record 59 scoreless innings, but he got a vulture win yesterday. Ya know, every little bit helps.

Melky Cabrera - Leads the Yankees in home runs. I think Arod might have something to say about that by the end of the year.

Robinson Cano - Sunday home run. I think you still can buy low on him, but you better act fast.

German Duran - Hit a home run as he filled in for Kinsler yesterday, but he could get time at third with Blalock on the DL (Blalock on the DL? No way!). Duran went 22/11 in Double A last year. Cust kayin’.

Jack Cust - Speaking of which, he hit another home run. He goes on streaks where you wonder why he isn’t owned on 100% of teams. Then he gets cold and you wonder why you ever picked him up. Ride the hot streak.

Chone Figgins - Looks like he might be headed to the DL, which will be a good thing rather than him sit on the bench for two weeks and hinder your ability to fill in for him.

Ian Stewart - I now have him in three leagues. I’ll probably drop him by next Sunday, but the Rockies are a bit of a mess right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they call Stewart up sooner rather than later. If they don’t call him up, you drop him. No harm, no foul. I know you’re probably excited about the prospects of having Eric Hinske on your bench all week, but why not pick up Stewart? Are you afraid of success? Winning got you down?

Tony Pena Jr. - Hillman gave Pena 27 days to get himself straight or Callaspo gets the start.  Considering Pena has a .252 career average in seven minor league seasons, I’d say he’s probably had enough time to prove himself. Pena, don’t go away mad, just go away.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - I’ve never seen someone get so many empty lines. He has more 0-for-4s than Robert Downey Jr. has drug relapses (BTW, Thought Iron Man was entertaining if uneven. What I don’t get is why was Paltrow in this movie? Who likes her besides Chris, Apple and Moses? She really makes my skin crawl. Why can’t Mila Kunis be in every movie that needs to have, like, a girl? Kunis could’ve pulled this role off even if it does seem like she’s coked out of her mind all the time. That would’ve at least made for an interesting subtext with Bob Downey. Like when are they going to stick needles in each other’s veins? Which reminds me, for a few of those early scenes when Downey’s partying I couldn’t help but think, “Not only was he partying like this for real, but he was probably doing it while getting a hummer from Anthony Michael Hall.”)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - He’s starting two days then Laird for two days. Best platoon ever for fantasy baseball purposes. You know exactly when to start him. I have Navarro and Salty switching out in one league, so far 6-for-14 with 2 RBIs.

Scott Kazmir - Returns to take a four inning dump. Wasn’t a fan coming into the season, and I’m still not. I’d see what I can get for him in a trade.

Mike Cameron - Hit two home runs. No reason why he can’t do his uze — 20/20, .250.

Eric Gagne - Pre-steroids testing — 84 consecutive saves. After steroids testing — 25 saves and a plus 5 ERA. Weird!

Hunter Pence - I wasn’t that high on Pence coming into the year, but he has three home runs in three games. You know, um, consecutively.

Greg Smith - At this point, I’d use him in mixed leagues (especially for his next start against the Rangers), but I wouldn’t bet that this streak of excellent pitching will last. I think he’s another sneaker.

Aaron Cook - I can’t imagine anyone’s trading for a Rockies pitcher, but if you have him I’d see what you can get.

Ryan Zimmerman - Sat for the first time in 205 games. He insists that he didn’t sit because he’s batting .217/3/14. I insist he’s an effin’ liar.

Evan Longoria - I think there’s probably a more reliable (read: boring) option on your waivers. Upside’s cool and all, but in one year leagues I’d prefer Zimmerman. And I don’t like Zimmerman. Maybe someone’s fed up in your league with Zimmerman and would like some Longoria.

Tim Redding - If picking up Redding causes you to get an erection for longer than four hours, you should see a doctor, but NL-Only owners could do worse.

On each Sunday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go. Please ask the minor questions i.e. Should I drop Chad Cordero for Santiago Casilla? (yes, you should) in the comment section. It’ll be a quicker answer there from Grey or I (or even a regular commenter). Thanks, we really do appreciate your support and feedback. (But if you try to hug me, it might get weird.)

QUESTION:

Now, I am not going to say which side of the deal I am on but here is a trade that went down in my league yesterday:

Team A agreed to deal Yovani Gallardo to Team B for Nick Markakis yesterday morning.  Unfortunately, we play in a league that votes on trades (I know…whole other topic there).  The commissioner announced the deal prior to the Brewers game.  Four votes trickled in before the news broke today regarding Gallardo being out for the year.

My question is this:

Should league owners be voting on this trade based on when the deal was agreed upon or based on circumstances that have occurred since then.

ANSWER:

Your league owners SHOULD be reviewing this trade without factoring in the injury news as that was the status of Gallardo when the trade was made.  Same as if Gallardo went out there and threw a no-hitter or gave up 8 runs in the first.

Whether they will or not is another matter.

I think there’s a fair argument that Markakis is worth more than Gallardo in any case.  Not enough that I would veto (Razzball is anti-veto) but the case could be made by a veto-friendly owner.  (The tough part is knowing whether the injury pushes them over the edge.)

Let us know how it turns out.

QUESTION:

In the 9-team 8×8 roto league with L, CG, K/BB, H, TB, and XBH added to basic Yahoo! 5×5.  I’m trying to become more independent of experts and pundits and such with my analyses and player projections, and I think I’m getting the hang of it.  What I would like to know is how you get your BAO, briefly, and what your BAO lines are for 2008.  I think I found your batting lines of

C – 47 / 13 / 57 / 2 / 0.273 (Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski)
1B – 63 / 18 / 68 / 1 / 0.279 (Matt Stairs, Conor Jackson, Aubrey Huff)
2B – 79 / 11 / 61 / 9 / 0.288 (Orlando Hudson, Brendan Harris, Mark DeRosa)
SS – 72 / 11/ 60 / 11 / 0.279 (Brendan Harris, Jack Wilson)
3B – 70 / 18 / 72 / 4 / 0.279 (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Aubrey Huff)
OF – 67 / 14 / 65 / 6 / 0.273 (Luis Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, JD Drew)

but I do not have anything for pitchers except a reference to Carlos Silva and 3.96 / 1.32.  What are the expectations for SP and RP BAO this year?

As for my team, I’ve done tons of trades since the beginning of the season and it’s changed quite a bit.  My current roster:

C - Geovany Soto
1B - Garrett Atkins
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Aramis Ramirez
SS - Ryan Theriot
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Alex Ríos
OF - Carl Crawford
Util - Josh Hamilton
BN - Justin Upton
BN - Conor Jackson
BN - Evan Longoria
DL - Troy Tulowitzki

SP - Cole Hamels
SP - James Shields
RP - J. J. Putz
RP - Joe Nathan
P - Matt Capps
P - Javier Vázquez
P - Santiago Casilla
BN - Max Scherzer
BN - Garrett Olson
DL - Rafael Soriano
DL - John Lackey

Now for a few specific questions about my team, if you’d be so kind.  Is Putz something to worry about?  He pitched 94 and 95 mph consistently during that blown save, just never in the strike zone.  I already made an offer of Geovany Soto for Bobby Jenks today (Dioner Navarro and Jeff Clement are FA) just in case.  Next, I kicked Brett Myers to the curb the day before Gallardo blew his ACL.  Is the long toss really his answer, or is he trash this year?  I’m personally beginning to think he punched his wife on a ‘roid rage.  My other available options besides him are Jonathan Broxton, Wandy Rodríguez, John Danks, and Shawn Hill.  With Soriano likely losing his job to Smoltz I have also had an eye on Rich Harden, who may come back for 10 to 20 minutes in the near future.  What do you think?

Also if you see any glaring weaknesses in my team (besides CG, I don’t have one yet and am one of only 3 teams with none) let me know.

RUDY’S ANSWER:

Here’s the 2007 BAO for pitchers:
Starters - 11 W, 4.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 191 IP, 132 Ks
Relievers - 4 W, 6 SV, 3.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 68 IP, 61 K

(The 3.96/1.32 is the composite of the two)

The BAO methodology is laid out HERE.

I can’t provide it for 2008 as it requires having a full year of stats and then determining the replacement level totals for each stat for each position.  I could’ve done this based on 2008 projections but I moved to the Point Shares methodology (explanation and methodology HERE.  It’s an improvement in our eyes as it ties back to Roto points.

If you’re trying to do something based on BAO, I’d just work off the same totals as last year.  It’s too early to assume any major shifts between the two years.

I don’t see why you’d trade Soto for Jenks as you seem set on closers.  Too early to bail on Putz.  Nathan and Capps are solid.  I’d think Smoltz would close if he relieves, so Soriano would be out.  If you can get anything for him, go ahead.  Otherwise, he’s probably useless in your league.   Hamels, Shields, and Vazquez are a solid starting three.  Lackey is due back on May 14th.  Nice you got Scherzer.  Not sure why you have Olson - is he a friend of the family?  I don’t see any FA out there that would replace your pitching lineup so it’s not a big deal.

Tough break with Tulo.  Theriot is your weakest link but he’s been hot. Assuming no one is stashing SS on their bench, you should be able to rotate SS for a while.