Last week’s slate of two-start starters was pretty light, so it is nice to see our list back to being robust for Week 20. A week after not having any two-start starters with a positive dollar value who were owned in less than 75% of RCLS according to Streamonator, we now have three. Streamonator likes two of the starters and like likes another one. Enough stalling and fluff, here are your three beloveds for this week:

 

 

Lamet and Eickhoff are both guys we have talked about a few times in this space this season, mostly due to some up-and-down performances, some injuries, and some resurgences. Both are on bad teams, which hurts their value a little bit, but both have electric strikeout stuff that makes them tasty. McHugh is not someone we have really discussed here before, but that is because he has been injured for most of the year.

Now, Streamonator obviously loves Lamet the most and by a wide margin, which you can clearly see based on the values listed above. This is due mostly to his strikeout potential and his recent success. In his last four starts, Lamet has lowered his ERA by a run and a half while giving up two runs or fewer in every start and earning three wins. His 11.20 K/9 highlights his appeal, while the lowlights are his 3.69 BB/9 and the fact that he plays for the Padres. He has a good matchup against the Phillies and a not-great matchup against the Nationals, but he does get to face both of them at home in a ballpark that takes up much of San Diego.

Eickhoff also offers a solid strikeout rate, though not the elite 11.20 K/9 that Lamet offers. He hovers more around 8 K/9, which is fine. He has battled some injuries this season but seems to be on the other side of them now (cue him going on the disabled list shortly after this is posted). His 4.45 ERA is slightly inflated by an awful May and not-great June, and he has been much better in July (3.27) and August (3.55). I have him ranked slightly ahead of Lamet this week, which is mostly due to his matchups: at San Diego and at San Francisco. If you have to have two starts on the road, those are the teams and ballparks I would prefer most. At just 19% owned, he is definitely worth a stream this week.

McHugh’s last outing was, well, not great. After two straight quality starts, he got walloped by the White Sox for seven runs (note to self: cross off “walloped” from list of words you were challenged to include in an article). So, in four starts this season, we have an underwhelming season debut, two quality starts, and then a dud. The dud is probably why he is owned in just 54% of RCLs and just 33% of ESPN leagues overall. One of his starts coming at Arizona doesn’t help, either. But his other start is at home against Oakland, and McHugh has been striking out a batter per inning and did look sharp before the start against the White Sox. And even in that start, he tossed four shutout innings before the wheels came off.

Plus, he has the added bonus of pitching for the Astros. That means: 1. He has one of the best offenses in baseball supporting him, and 2. He doesn’t ever have to pitch AGAINST the Astros. The Arizona start is why I dropped him to the bottom of the Replicas tier, but he should still be a solid value start this week. Now, for the rest of the list…

 

Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent 8 toughest or 8 easiest opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days.

THE BEST

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Madison Bumgarner SF @MIA, PHI 2.71/3.24 8.55/1.63
Danny Salazar CLE @MIN, @KC 4.15/3.72 12.66/4.15
Jose Quintana CHC CIN, TOR 4.42/4.06 9.58/3.15
Jacob deGrom NYM @NYY, MIA 3.21/3.53 10.65/2.74
Alex Wood LAD CHW, @DET 2.37/2.67 9.46/2.45

THE REPLICAS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Zack Greinke ARI HOU, @MIN 3.14/3.29 9.97/1.87
Brad Peacock HOU @ARI, OAK 3.07/2.90 11.45/4.50
Jerad Eickhoff PHI @SD, @SF 4.45/4.13 8.16/3.56
Dinelson Lamet SD PHI, WSH 5.00/4.19 11.20/3.69
Kyle Hendricks CHC CIN, TOR 3.70/4.21 7.51/2.83
Justin Verlander DET @TEX, LAD 3.97/4.07 8.81/3.91
Sonny Gray NYY NYM, @BOS 3.39/3.19 8.75/3.06
Collin McHugh HOU @ARI, OAK 5.32/4.73 9.00/3.27

THE STANDARDS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Ivan Nova PIT @MIL, STL 3.87/4.34 5.68/1.27
Marco Estrada TOR TB, @CHC 4.85/4.35 9.31/3.72
Blake Snell TB @TOR, SEA 4.69/4.87 7.78/4.92
Rick Porcello BOS STL, NYY 4.63/4.40 8.25/1.78
Kevin Gausman BAL @SEA, LAA 5.21/4.60 8.53/3.72
Masahiro Tanaka NYY NYM, @BOS 4.92/4.65 9.49/2.22
Trevor Bauer CLE @BOS, @KC 4.79/3.80 9.95/3.29
Luis Castillo CIN @CHC, @ATL 3.73/4.51 8.80/3.88
Ty Blach SF @MIA, PHI 4.15/3.82 4.43/1.90
Mike Leake STL @BOS, @PIT 3.48/3.99 6.12/2.13

THE KNOCKOFFS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
A.J. Griffin TEX DET, CHW 5.40/6.38 7.56/2.88
Jake Odorizzi TB @TOR, SEA 4.38/5.65 7.66/3.38
Jharel Cotton OAK KC, @HOU 5.72/5.40 7.69/3.84
Anthony Banda ARI HOU, @MIN 4.60/3.26 9.19/2.87
Adam Conley MIA SF, @NYM 5.43/4.86 6.64/3.62
Sean Newcomb ATL @COL, CIN 4.45/4.28 9.36/5.06
Jason Hammel KC @OAK, CLE 4.68/4.11 7.09/2.62
Ben Lively PHI @SD, @SF 3.80/4.61 3.59/2.74

THE 

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Travis Wood SD PHI, WSH 6.71/4.78 7.49/4.21
Rafael Montero NYM @NYY, MIA 6.06/4.64 9.37/4.82
Julio Teheran ATL @COL, CIN 5.25/5.67 6.97/3.45
Asher Wojciechowski CIN @CHC, @ATL 4.23/4.50 9.27/1.81
Nick Tepesch TOR TB, @CHC 9.00/11.30 9.00/4.50
Yovani Gallardo SEA BAL, @TB 5.38/5.13 6.39/3.95
Bartolo Colon MIN CLE, ARI 6.77/4.74 5.53/2.19
Martin Perez TEX DET, CHW 5.18/4.74 5.83/3.17
Chad Bettis COL ATL, MIL 4.82/5.09 5.30/2.89
Miguel Gonzalez CHW @LAD, @TEX 4.85/5.11 5.10/3.18

All pitchers are projected for two starts as of Friday night. 

If you would prefer to see the above tables as a color-coded graphic, we’ve got that too!

(Click to enlarge.)

As always, disagree with anything here? Have any questions or comments? Want to tell Mike how great he is or how much you agree with him? Want relationship or investment advice?

DROP THOSE COMMENTS!

 

If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!

 

22 Comments
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Question...
Question...
4 years ago

I always roll with 2 starts pitchers (Point league) but now I have Arenado injured..

I need to drop one of these (Salazar, Senzatela, Eickoff, Griffin, Conley) to pick up a 3rd basement as well as start one of these:
Morton, Happ, Duffy, E-Rod

What do you suggest?

Thanks!

true and correct
true and correct
4 years ago

Doesn’t appear that Bum will 2 step.

Yankee My Wanky!
Yankee My Wanky!
4 years ago

Mike,
Nice job once again. Any interest in Nova? I dropped him 2 weeks ago (or maybe it was last week), but whatever the case, it was a few weeks too late. You have him in The Standards, so you obviously like him a bit. Would you risk it?

Yeah, saw the question on A. Wood and 2 starts. I actually have Darvish, Hill, Wood and Ryu on a team, so although I have say 65% to 75% of their current staff (missing the key one of course), I am having a hard time recalling a 2 start from one of these guys. Pretty frustrating.

Thanks much.

Dave
Dave
4 years ago

Looking forward to 2018, do you see any WW players that could be sneaky adds now for next season? I realize you don’t know my WW, but just generally speaking….guys trending upward on the low end of the spectrum.

Stumanji!
Stumanji!
Reply to  Dave
4 years ago

@Dave: Alex Reyes if he’s available?

Mike
Mike
4 years ago

Anyone rolling Fister out vs CLE and NYY? I am in 8th place, might as well

Stumanji!
Stumanji!
4 years ago

Drop manaea in a 10 tm h2h league for a streamer spot, or are you still holding him?

Last 3 starts: 6.2 IP (total!), 21 hits, 13 ER, 4 BB, 2 Ks (TOTAL!!!), ERA and WHIP +/- a million

Stumanji!
Stumanji!
Reply to  mikeMaher
4 years ago

@mikeMaher: Well I own him at a $5 value in my keeper (keep 5 players) but tbh there are other guys I’d probably keep over him so that’s not really a consideration.

Raj
Raj
4 years ago

according to cbssports.com, Jon Gray is v. ATL (Newcomb) on 8/15 and v. MIL (Garza) on 8/20. If that’s accurate info, where would you rank him on your list?

Roger Anderson
Roger Anderson
4 years ago

Tanaka hits the DL, so that one goes off the list.

Fogimon
Fogimon
4 years ago

Really expect Wood to make 2 starts next week? Every publication I’ve read show him making only 1.

Fogimon
Fogimon
Reply to  Fogimon
4 years ago

@Fogimon: Plus, Dodgers have 5 games next week and a 6-man rotation. Something doesn’t add up.