Fantasy Baseball Advice

With more outfielders than random hairs growing from my grandfather’s ear, we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  And, just like your grandfather’s ear hair, a lot of these guys are gross.  I don’t know what happened to the outfielders, they just went and got ugly.  You look at Ryan Braun like he ruined your childhood by taking a performance-enhancing drug, but at least he’s trying to put some offense back into the modern-era of baseball.  Now someone start manufacturing aluminum bats painted to look like a wooden bat.  Thank you.  As with the other 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, where tiers start and stop are mentioned and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

41. Carlos Beltran – This tier started in the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball and ends at Ichiro.  I called this tier, “Vets that I’m either lukewarm about or slightly more than lukewarm about.  Read the temperature gauge.”  If you get 140 games from Beltran, then you’re going to get a solid 3rd outfielder.  But if that “if” had hips it would drop it like it’s hot and never get up again.  On a side note, how awesome would it be if during Spring Training, the Cards have a split squad game and Wainwright throws Beltran nothing but knee-buckling curves?  2012 Projections:  65/18/80/.275/7

42. Nick Swisher – I’m not super excited about Swisher when I look at his ground ball rate going up and his fly ball rate going down, but I do like his side burns.  If Luke Perry were a ballplayer and I were Jennie Garth and we both hated Shannen Doherty then… Well, I have no idea where this is going so I’ll stop now.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.270

43. Carlos Quentin – A guy that has 30 homer power + Injuries + Petco = Death + Breathing.  2012 Projections:  60/22/75/.250/3

44. Ichiro Suzuki – I was telling people to avoid Ichiro for years and it seems like the public perception of him has finally caught up to my reality.  To incorrectly quote Drake’s lyrics, “Ichiro has faded way too long, he’s floatin’ in and out of public consciousness.”  Crazy for me to say, but I think Ichiro is slightly undervalued now.  Is he that different than Brett Gardner?  Yeah, maybe a tad.  Fielders sic Ichiro’s choppers and his gams aren’t what they were, but he doesn’t look done done, just maybe medium done.  2012 Projections:  80/6/40/.310/30

45. Jose Tabata – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Fowler.  I call this tier, “At least two of these guys will break out and shoot up the rankings for 2013.”  Even in his tizzerible 2011 season, Tabata still was on pace for 25+ steals if he got in a full season.  Also, he hit 4 homers.  Is he going to be a 15/40 guy?  Nah, not likely.  But 7/30 with a solid average and runs is… Okay, you know what I’m most worried about.  How am I gonna find players I’m excited about for the top 80 outfielder post?  Seriously, the entire top 80 outfielder post might be just one giant tier of guys I don’t like since I’m only at the 45th ranked outfielder and I’m hardly building much enthusiasm.  This is an issue.  Okay, enough negativism.  Tabata is one of my best bets to shoot up the rankings from this tier.  He has some power, steals bases and isn’t an average drain.  2012 Projections:  90/7/50/.285/30

46. Austin Jackson – Jackson is basically Tabata with the possibility of an average drain.  Jackson’s K-rate is tizzerible so he’ll need to luck into an average over .260.  With Fielder inserted into the Tigers lineup, opposing pitchers will have to attack the first two hitters in the Tigers lineup.  Keep that in mind when you read Boesch’s blurb, I may or may not repeat it.  You’ll have to wait and see!  2012 Projections:  100/9/50/.260/27

47. Delmon Young – Let’s see what Young has going for him.  1) He was good after his trade to the Tigers. 2) He’s out of Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome.  3) He’s still only 26 years old.  4) There’s no 4.  5) He can fling a bat at an ump better than most.  Now, let’s see what he has going against him.  1) 4 of 5 seasons in the majors have been yawnstipating.  2) Blimpotence. 3) A hideous walk rate. 4) Still no 4.  5) He can fling a bat at an ump better than most.  2012 Projections:  70/17/80/.285/3

48. Cameron Maybin – Some may say that Maybin already broke out last year, so why is he so low on my rankings?  Some may be right, but you want to rely on Padres hitters?  Yeah, me neither.  Put Maybin on the Rockies and I’d have him in the top 25 outfielders.  2012 Projections:  75/7/35/.255/30

49. Lorenzo Cain – From this tier, Cain has the most upside, but he also has the most downside.  I mean, he’s gonna be 26 years old and he’s still yet to break into the majors.  Capricorns are late bloomers, but Cain is an Aries so I have no New Agey reason why he’s looking like a career minor leaguer.  But if I needed to shoehorn in a New Agey reason… An Aries is a Ram, it’s quality is a Cardinal and it’s element is Fire.  So it seems like Cain should play for the St. Louis Cardinals with their fire-red uniforms, but his planet is Mars, which has “ram” in it backwards.  Now the opposite of fire-red is ice blue and if you face St. Louis behind you is Kansas City.  So this is his year!   As of right now, he’s set to play center in Kay Cee and bat leadoff.  The table has been set, now it’s up to Cain to step up to the plate.  2012 Projections:  80/8/50/.280/25

50. Lucas Duda – This is more of a general point for upside outfielders than specifically about Duda.  The lack of enthusiasm you hear in my typees as I write up these blurbs is that some of these upside outfielders are on the Pirates, Padres, Royals and Mets.  Um, yay?  I’m not a Mets hater as some have accused me of, but Metco has a well-warranted bad rep.  Maybe the fences coming in will change all of that and we’ll be calling for a humidor in Metco.  One can hope, I suppose.  2012 Projections:  75/20/85/.280/3 (<–optimistic and still kinda whatever)

51. Brennan Boesch – If Boesch gets in a whole season, he could get you 25 homers and 10 steals.  Assuming he doesn’t take a dump in the 2nd half of the year or get injured.  To summarize what I said about twelve words ago in Spanglish, sin dumpo o mal healtho, then bueno.  2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.270/7

52. Dexter Fowler – One year with the Rockies, he stole 27 bags.  One year in the minors, he hit 9 homers.  Mark him down as a sleeper and move on (without mentioning he was caught stealing nine times last year and only successful 12 times).  Hey, it took me saying Maybin was a sleeper for 3 years before he finally broke out, maybe this is Fowler’s time.  You know, even a broken clock is right twice a day.  That’s more than Matthew Berry.  2012 Projections:  90/7/50/.270/20

53. Jeff Francoeur – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Joyce.  I call this tier, “Price is too steep for guys coming off career years so I’m probably going to miss out on these schmohawks.”  22 steals last year while being caught 10 times is, how do they say it?  Terrible.  So put that back to the 5-7 steals that he’s actually good for and you have a guy that has worse plate discipline than someone on The Biggest Loser with the upside of Vernon Wells.  Yes, his ceiling is Vernon Wells.  Sorry for the shot of reality.  2012 Projections:  70/22/80/.260/7

54. Melky Cabrera – Another guy with the caught stealing percentage that could even turn Joe Morgan against the steal.  Can we please get Michael Lewis to write a Dayton Moore book?  Call it “No Moneyball.”  Chapter 1:  Willie Bloomquist, Chief Justice of the Supreme Crap.  Chapter 2:  Stealing — If At First You Don’t Succeed, Try and Try Again.  2012 Projections:  75/14/65/.270/15

55. Matt Joyce – He hit 12 homers in the first half with a May where he donged 7 dingers.  I loved him then.  It was like a shawl made of a giant mustache wrapped around both of our shoulders as we watched When Harry Met Sally in an outdoor screening in a park.  There’s a very outside chance I end up with Matt Joyce on a team or two this year if he goes for cheap enough.  I don’t think he comes close to his 2011, but if he can start the year hot again, then maybe you can get a couple months of production and flip him for a Brain Freeze.  2012 Projections: 55/17/65/.265/10

56. Brandon Belt – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 80 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “You may get a top 20 outfielder from any of these guys.  Or a guy you want to drop by April 15th.”  I went over Brandon Belt’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

57. Eric Thames – With a full season of at-bats, Thames stands to have a huge break out…Or he’ll hit 20 homers and .250.  Right now, he’s in the 2 hole — not that there’s anything wrong with being in the two hole — while Rasmus is in the 7 hole.  Heresy!   Blasphemy!  Other words in the thesaurus!  I imagine Rasmus and Thames will flip-flop by May at the latest, possibly as soon as Opening Day.  Either the hoo, we’re just talking about runs vs. RBIs…Or are we?!  Yeah, we probably are, but Thames may see better pitches in the two hole.  It’s worth noting, so I did.  Worth Noting, II:  The Return of Worth Noting, the Blue Jays have, like, a dozen outfielders.  I like Thames for power, which is also called hydroelectricity.  Al Gore invented that.  After the internet.  2012 Projections:  70/20/75/.255/5

58. Yonder Alonso – Went over my Alonso projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

59. Nolan Reimold – I already went over my Nolan Reimold 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it prior to the O’s being boneheads and getting Betemit.  Play some Bruno Mars in the O’s front office and send in Tyler the Creator to kill everyone.  I think Reimold will still get his 500 ABs because Betemit will play some 3rd, isn’t an everyday player and Chris Davis is at 1st.  Only people that know how well Davis will do at 1st is your deity of choice and Bill James, which might be the same thing in some circles. (Which should not to be confused with Google Circles.  BTW, if Google+’s whole point was to see how fast people will abandon a social networking site, it’s a success.)  2012 Projections:  65/24/80/.250/10

60. Roger Bernadina – If I didn’t get burned by Bernadina last year, he might’ve showed up higher on these rankings.  Ooh, hold on, someone’s knocking on my door.  “Hey, it’s Excitement For Bernadina here.  I just moved into the building and wanted to say you shouldn’t give up hope on Bernadina.  He should be starting this year.”  Me, “The Nats sent Bernadina down last year and decided to start Brian Bixler.  If you know who Brian Bixler is, you’re related to him.”  Excitement For Bernadina, “I know, that was a tough blow.”  Me, “Blow?  Sending down Bernadina and starting Bixler was the equivalent of Bixler taking a bat and hitting Bernadina in the balls – assuming Bixler would actually make contact.”  Excitement For Bernadina, “I appreciate you, Grey Albright.  Please give Bernadina another chance.  Us Excitement For Bernadina’s have to stick together.  By the way, did you see a package from Amazon by my door?  It’s missing.”  Me, “Nope.”  2012 Projections:  55/10/65/.260/20

No, they don’t refer to these Nolan Reimold-types as being “Grey’s stubborn and unable to let go of past” sleepers.  No, I’m not just recycling posts from 2009.  Though how about that Garrett Atkins?!  These players are post-hype sleepers, y’all!  Catch the excitement!  Don’t worry, I won’t push Carlos Quentin on you.  Though he is reporting he’s fully healthy.  (I’m joking; Quentin is never fully healthy.  Padres might want to consider the Tijuana farmacias to cut back on Quentin’s overhead (and under-oblique. (Bee tee dubya, this is gonna be a challenge counting how many end parentheticals I’m gonna need. (A little help?)))) (Phew.)  I might’ve cooled on Nolan Reimold at some point last year (after pouring a Slurpee down my pants), but “if you really love something set it free” isn’t just for Hallmark cards.  It works just as well for fantasy baseball and rabid dogs.  So what can we expect of Nolan Reimold for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

In 267 ABs last year, he had 13 homers and 7 steals *whispering fast* while only hitting .247.  So he’s no young Ichiro Suzuki, as someone who doesn’t know baseball would call him.  I’m more interested in the homers and steals.  Neither is out of line for him.  He has sneaky 7-10 steal speed and his power knows no limits (<–total exaggeration).  His 13 homers in 267 ABs is just about in line with what he’s capable of.  His HR/FB of 14.8 doesn’t look obscene.  If he can get 500 ABs, and at the age of 28 he should, he could easily reach 25 homers.  With that, he’ll get some RBIs and a few less runs.  I’m going to be crazy optimistic and say in 500 ABs his line will be 65/24/80/.250/10.  To throw back at you a name previously mentioned, is that line that different from Carlos Quentin?  Not really.  It’s rare to find a guy that can hit for power and chuck in some steals.  Granted, it’s even rarer (is that a word? Who cares!) that Reimold actually hits for power and chucks in some steals.  I get it; he’s disappointed in the past.  This is a trust exercise; fall into Reimold’s arms one more time.

Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur were shut down for the year because the peasant Royals want to give Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson a full three days to show their worth.  Gordon’s line this year was 101/23/87/.303/17.  Terrific!  Wonderful!  Tonderific!  But if you peak under the hood, things aren’t as they seem.  His BABIP is .358, easily a career high in the majors.  His walk rate and line drive rate dropped from last year, and his ground ball rate nudged up.  His homers and speed look about right, but if luck goes against him those two categories could get affected.  He’s probably much closer to a .280 hitter with 17-20 homers and 12-15 steals.  With just a tad bad luck, he becomes a fifteen homer guy with 10 steals and a .265 average.  That’s far from spectacular.  That’s spectaculess.  I just made that up; you like it?  You use it.  As for Frenchy, his line was 77/20/87/.285/22.  Oh, well, that looks pretty normal– Wait a second, 22 steals?!  Where the eff in the effhole did those come from?  His previous high was 8.  He always failed to take pitches like he needed some ADHD medicine, but now he’s running the bases like it too.  “Sorry, first base coach, whatever your name is, can’t stay at 1st, gotta run, peace!”  That’s Frenchy, and he can’t even stop for a period at the end of sentences; he only has time for commas.  He’s always been a notorious bad ball hitter.  This year Frenchy swung at 41% of balls outside the strike zone, which is actually high for him, and his percentage of balls swung at inside the strike zone was actually down.  Only thing that changed this year, he made more contact with pitches outside of the strike zone.  If that stops along with his whacked out of his mind stealing, he may use 2012 to revert to his old ways, so it’ll be hard to give Frenchy my arrondissement.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  Before we get into the roundup, I just wanted to announce a very good friend of mine is putting on a one man show in Los Angeles.  If you go see the play, you may just run into yours truly and my significant other — my mustache.  If you can’t make it to Los Angeles or if you’re in Los Angeles but afraid to leave your house, you can buy his book.  Anyway II, the roundup:

Hunter Pence – 3-for-5 with his 21st homer.  Hey, that homer can drink legally!  After Pence sat out for three games with a sore knee, it was good to see him return, unless you had him on your bench like I did.  Sonavabench!

Jacoby Ellsbury – Hit his 29th, 30th and 31st home runs yesterday.  For the Sox’s sake, it’s too bad he can’t pitch.

Francisco Liriano – 1/3 IP, 5 ER in middle relief.  How’d he go from one of the best arms in the game to mop up duty?  When Dr. James Andrews tells people 9 out of 10 pitchers agree with the good doctor, I think I know which one doesn’t agree.  “I feel like Bruno Mars’s forehead, big and empty!”  That’s Liriano talking through a translator.

Wilson Ramos – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in his last three starts.  I specify his last three starts, because the Nats have been sitting him every other game.  It’s really important to get at-bats for Pudge, whose nickname wasn’t always ironic, and Jesus Flores?  Rhetorical!

Stephen Strasburg – Nats announced he would have an innings limit next year.  The GM said that innings limit has been semi-calculated.  The equation he used was pretty straightforward:  A Reinjured Strasburg = No Job.

Wade Davis – 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Nice end to what’s been a pretty terrible season.  His K-rate was atrocious and it wasn’t like he was getting unlucky with his 4.45 ERA.  Usually the third year a starter is in the majors is when their breakthrough comes, which next year will be for Davis, but I don’t have high hopes here.

Jason Bay – Didn’t play Sunday and was pulled from Saturday’s game because of illness.  Illness sounds like it should be managing the Mets.

Nolan Reimold – 2-for-4 with his fourth homer in the last ten games; also he’s hitting .300 over the last week.  He’s either hitting really well recently, or it’s an illusion to get people to draft him again next year.

Robert Andino – 1-for-2 with a steal.  After 136 games, he has 13 steals with 4 coming in the last week.  I don’t get that.  Did he just suddenly realize he’s fast?  Was he auditing a summer class from the University of Phoenix on base stealing and he just passed?  If you have speed, then run.

Brian Matusz – 5 IP, 6 ER.  On the year, he gave up 59 earned runs in… Guess how many innings.  Wait for it… Here it comes… Wait, where did I put it?… How did it end up in my glove compartment?  Anyway, in 49 2/3 innings.  That gives him the worst single-season ERA in MLB history (10.69).  On the bright side, for the record he beat Halladay’s 10.64 ERA of 2000.  Then again, Halladay was throwing with his left hand that season.

Grady Sizemore – Shut down for the year.  Backdate that to the moment his flash went off in front of a mirror.  Use any definition of the word flash you’d like.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Left Saturday’s game with an elbow contusion and didn’t play Sunday.  On a side note, I think Asdrubal should follow Ichiro’s lead and have just Asdrubal on his jersey.  Imagine parents taking their kids to a game and covering their eyes when they see Asdrubal.

Shelley Duncan – 2-for-3 with his 7th homer in September.  I feel sorry for all those that had to high-five him during his torrid month.  He’s always so intense.  Here’s him at a post-game press conference.

Felix Hernandez – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 13 baserunners, 2 Ks and was pulled from the game after being hit by a comebacker.  Over the winter, I want a 500 word essay from him about what he did this summer that made me no longer love him.

Miguel Cabrera – Hit a homer in his third straight game, then left due to lightheadedness.  After the game, he said he prefers Amstel Light-headedness.

Matt Holliday – 2-for-7 over the weekend as he returned.  La Russa, wearing a jacket made from veggie burgers, said as long as Holliday’s healthy, he’s going to be out there.  Now it’s a judgment call whether you should play him.  I wouldn’t necessarily go back to him if I had options that were hitting.

Jose Bautista – After crashing into a wall, he stayed in the game for five innings only to then leave with a knee injury.  I think he should be fine.  My mom was right, I could’ve been a doctor.  “But, mom, there’s a whole lot more zeroes in blogging.  Though that’s not zeroes as in money.”

Brett Cecil -  3 1/3 IP, 4 ER and ends the year with a 4.73 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  Somehow, I’ll find a way to make him seem attractive yet again next year; you just wait and see!

Carlos Gonzalez – As reported here first on Friday after inferring shizz from other sources, CarGo is done for the year.  As I said in the preseason, “He’s a bumps-and-bruises, miss-a-few-days-here-and-there type guy.  Those day-to-day things can turn into more.”  And that’s me quoting me!

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 3-for-6, 5 RBIs and 2 homers.   Don’t mess with The ‘Noff.

Josh Willingham – 1-for-4 with his 28th homer.  I’d put $5 on The Other White Meat getting to 30 homers, if I were a betting man.  Okay, if I were a betting man on things I actually know and not just random rolls of a die.

Torii Hunter – 1-for-3 with a steal yesterday, and a homer on Friday and Saturday.  Not the same homer, that would be weird.

Vernon Wells – Slam & legs yesterday and 4 homers in the last 8 games.  You looking at his 25 homers and 9 steals on the year, “Hey, Vernon Wells had a good year?  Who knew?”  You looking at his average, “He hit .220?  Crimey a river, Justin Timberlake.”

Adrian Beltre – 3-for-4 with his 30th homer and 101st RBI while hitting .293.  I don’t get it, is he gonna try to renegotiate his contract?

Ian Kinsler – 3-for-4, 3 runs and a homer and two steals.  Totally just padding his stats to get to 30/30 and I love it.  This is why all players should have to own themselves in an H2H league with 50% of their contract in their fantasy league pot.  I wonder if the union will go for it.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games, and he’s 7 for his last 13.  Can you tell I don’t want the season to end?  This is like the longest roundup ever.  Bonifacio is hot, moving on…

Ricky Nolasco – 2 IP, 6 ER.  Ends the season with a 4.67 ERA.  Somehow, he’ll be hyped again next year by everyone but me.  “Hey, ESPN analcyst here, and I want you to look at Nolasco’s strikeout to walk ratio.  He’s awesome!”

Clayton Kershaw – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks and his 21st win to go along with his 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 248 Ks.  Even with an injured knee, that had Ethier dancing.

Justin Upton – Left the game after being hit in the head by a Lincecum fastball.  Tests are showing no signs of a concussion.  Too bad.  I was hoping he’d return as Jason Bourne and bring down Justin Morneau for trying to kill my fantasy teams.

Twins aren’t winning.  Twins haven’t won all year, actually.  You can look it up.  They’re 0-for-2011.  But Ben Revere wants to steal bases for no reason.  I love that.  I’d prefer my fantasy players act selfishly and just try to inflate their own value.  Maybe that’s lame, but we’re talking about fantasy baseball.  We’re not talking about getting chicks with your IROC.  When a player tries to inflate his own value, it helps us fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!).  With so many players shut down or resting for the playoffs, the best thing we can hope for right now is someone who just wants some stats.  Revere is the player.  In the last week, Revere is hitting .464 with 5 runs, 4 RBIs and 3 steals.  In the last ten games, he has 7 steals.  (BTW, the Twins lost each of those ten games.  Ha!)  He’s not glamorous, you’re not going to want to keep him for next year (outside of very deep leagues that have a “Must Have A Ben” clause), but if you need steals, grab him quick.  Now if only Revere played for the Red Sox, it would be like a player on the Yanks named Sam Yonkers.  Or a Jimmy Burbank on the Dodgers.  Or Sadaharu Tacoma on the Mariners.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Mike Carp - He’s hitting .400 over the last week with two homers.  This from our frequent commenter, Rabbit, “So how much of a team can you fill up with fish-themed players?  You’ve got Carp, Trout, and Anthony Bass.  I’d say you can include Jason Bay and Dan, Tim and Kyle Hudson (but not Vernon Wells – the first two bodies of water contain fish, the other better not) and maybe one of the Thames (whichever one pronounces his name like the river).  Jerry Sands and Brandon Beachy seem a close enough fit.  If you push it a bit, your catcher could be Pierzynski (Where do you fish from?  The pier, Zynski.), and maybe you could have Wilson “Exxon” Valdez (he sure killed a lot of fish).”

Nolan Reimold – Has three homers and three steals in the last ten games.  Sure, he’s flopped a bunch in the past, but who are you to judge Reimold?  Fred Savage?

Jerry Sands – Him and Bugsy helped build Vegas and now Sands is hitting .458 over the last week with 2 homers.

Salvador Perez – In his short time in the majors, he’s hitting .344 with 2 homers.  In the even shorter time of the last week, he’s hitting .579 with one homer.  In the even shortest time of his last at-bat, he’s 1-for-1.  That’s batting one thousand!  Use Ted Williams’s frozen medulla oblongata and carve out Perez’s Hall of Fame plaque!

John Mayberry Jr. – With the Phils clinched, Mayberry’s seeing more time and hitting (.409 with 2 homers in the last week).  It’s Mayberry BFD.

Joel Peralta – Farnsworth should return today, but you never know what can happen, except there will be a plague of locust as we know from The Book of Joel Peralta.

Greg Holland – Besides the saves (which he is getting now), he’s had a much better year than Soria.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!

Mike Aviles – Starting at 3rd base for the Sawx over the last week and he’s hitting .385 with 2 homers.  Last September, he had 6 homers and hit .357.  I accept this H2H trophy on behalf of all the men and women in the Armed Forces, and Mike Aviles.

Eric Young Jr. – Do I dare recommend him again?  I dare, I dare.  Do you care to pick him up again?  You care, you care.  Do you have someone to change your baby’s diaper?  Au pair, au pair.

Mike Moustakas – Over the last seven days, he has 2 homers and is hitting .500.  Finally, someone sprayed some Windex on his bat.

Lonnie Chisenhall – It seems inevitable that all of these guys that are hitting in September are going to be overrated next March.  Cust kayin’.

Brent Morel – Not only is he hitting (4 homers in the last ten games) but he seems like a funghi.

Cory Luebke - If you want a list of starters for the last week of the season, head over to the borderline fantasy starter post.  I wrote it while covering my eyes during the elevator scene in Drive.

SELL

Joakim Soria – I don’t think he’s going to pitch again this year.  Seriously, no Joakim.

Mitch Moreland – Before he just wasn’t hitting, now he’s not playing.  You see how that could hurt his value?  I.e., stop your Mitchin’.

Brett Lawrie – You guys will always have those moments you shared.  No one can take those from you.  Not even the IRS.

Troy Tulowitzki – Unlike previous years, the Rockies threw up the white flag in late August.  Hey, on the bright side, you don’t need a huge September from Tulo to make his season worthwhile.

Carlos Gonzalez – Probably done for the year.  His season ending stats are 92/26/92/.295/20.  My preseason projections were 90/24/95/.285/20.  Is that a boo-ya?  Or just boo-ya adjacent?

Anyone that is not going to help you win right now – There’s no time left, drop anyone that is not playing and add players that are.  Now excuse me while I go see Moneyball.  BTW, I’d love to hear a review of Moneyball by Joe Morgan.  “Is that John Kruk playing opposite Brad Pitt?  He was excellent!  I didn’t know he could play so Jewish.”

Cliff Pennington – Pennington was the 21st overall selection in the 2005 draft by the Oakland Athletics. He started in A ball that year and looked pretty good over 69 games:  .276/.364/.359. While the power wasn’t really there, he was only 21 and did manage 15 doubles in 334 plate appearances. He was also 25/31 in stolen base attempts, a nifty ratio.

Given the first round pedigree and moderate success, Baseball America rated him the #83 prospect before the 2006 season. Unfortunately, he got off to a slow start and suffered a leg injury, resulting in just 234 plate appearances. He would never appear on another Baseball America top 100 list.

Still, in the following season, he finally got a full season of minor league ball, appearing in 138 games across A+ and AA ball. The results weren’t good for the 23-year-old: .253/.348/.368 – but hey, the slugging percentage was higher than his OBP! At least Pennington showed an advanced approach at the plate, posting a walk rate north of 12% and not striking out a whole lot.

There was still potential in the shortstop given that approach and it appeared he made use of his tools in 2008. He started off in AA, posting a .260/.379/.314 line. The batting average and power were absent – however the near 16% walk rate showed that he had mastered that level of pitching. Pennington was promoted to AAA and would get 294 plate appearances and do some damage: .297/.426/.386. Across both levels he had 31 steals in 37 attempts. He earned a quick cup of coffee for his efforts and batted .242/.339/.293 in the majors. He held his own with an 11.1% walk rate and 15.4% K rate.

Still, he started 2009 in AAA and didn’t quite perform as well. His BABIP dropped from .338 in 2008 to .300 and his slash line followed (.264/.345/.367). Still he was walking and not striking out a lot, so the Athletics brought him to the majors.

He batted an impressive .279/.342/.418 in 229 plate appearances in 2009 – although the line was buoyed by a .342 BABIP that wasn’t supported by great contact (just an 18.5% line drive rate). He was also striking out a lot, not walking nearly as much as you would like and he wasn’t successful stealing. It was hard to see where Pennington’s value would come from if (when) that BABIP normalized.

In his first full year in the majors, 2010, Pennington’s BABIP normalized to .296 (even though he hit more line drives: 21.5%) and his slash line suffered. He hit just two more homers than he did in 2009 in nearly 350 more at bats. Still, he stole 29 bases and was caught just five times. The steals were nice, but their value was useless given his inability to get on base/hit for a good average. Still he wasn’t hitting a ton of ground balls (just 35.6%) and the line drive rate should have produced a slightly better BABIP.

The question remained whether Pennington could hit the ball well enough to be fantasy relevant. Well, he has a 24.9% line drive rate this year and an improved and sustainable BABIP at .316. He is hitting a not awful .265/.321/.367. Unfortunately, he is just 13/22 in stolen base attempts and has only eight homers.

However, he’s been damn good since July 15. It’s a small sample (56 games and 232 plate appearances), but he owns a .309/.371/.454 line. Of course he has a .376 BABIP during that time and the competition usually gets weaker as the season goes on.

This year has been a nice step forward for Pennington and he is entering his prime. You cannot bank on him to continue his second half trend going into next season. He hasn’t mastered the strike zone like you would expect and he still hits too many fly balls for his home ballpark. It would not surprise me if he finds his way inside the top 10 at his position next year and does have upside to the 5-7 range. So he’ll be a good gamble late in drafts – but is far too risky to count on in anything other than AL-only leagues. That said, I’m happily riding him down the stretch.

Nolan Reimold – A former standout at Bowling Green State University, Reimold was the 61st overall selection in the 2005 MLB Draft. He played pretty well in the minors in his initial stint (73 games): .285/.385/.551 with 15 homers across A- and A+.

He drew the attention of Baseball America and was rated the #99 prospect in baseball before the 2006 season. However his grasp on the top 100 would slip through his fingers after a somewhat poor season at A+. He struck out a good bit (21.2%), but still walked enough and hit for enough power to remain intriguing.

He played sparingly, but well in 2007 at AA. In just 50 games, he hit .306/.365/.565. The power was there, but he struck out a ton (23.2%) and had an inflated BABIP (.359). Still, he was the #91 prospect going into the 2008 season.

He spent the entire 2008 season in AA and looked good: .284/367/.501 and really cut down his Ks (14%). He earned his promotion to AAA in 2009. He wouldn’t be there long though – after 31 games and a .394/.485/.743 line, he made his way to the big league club. On May 20, against the hated New York Yankees, Reimold hit his first career homer – it happened to be off Mariano Rivera – pretty sweet. Then, seven days later, he hit a walk-off dinger in the 11th against the Blue Jays. Reimold finished the year with 15 HRs and a .279/.365/.466 line in 411 plate appearances.

Clearly, 2010 would be a 20-HR campaign with the RBIs to go with them. Unfortunately, Reimold battled injuries and inconsistency. He played just 39 games for the big league club and struggled to a .207/.282/.328 line. He struck out more, even though he swung and missed less. While his line drive rate dipped to 12% (from 14.4% the year before), his BABIP really dipped – all the way to .236. In addition, his HR/FB rate dropped to 8.3%. Either Reimold suddenly got terrible, or he was the victim of serious bad juju.

While he spent time in the minors in 2011, he has mostly returned to form in the majors. Clearly his .235/.324/.429 leave a lot to be desired but his ISO, HR/FB% and line drive rate are all in line with 2009. His average on balls in play is still a tad low, so there is room for optimism that he can improve the rest of the way and in 2012.

He is probably not viable in 10-team leagues next year. However, he should have enough mojo for every other kind of league – he could legitimately hit 20-30 HRs.