Fantasy Baseball Advice

If we take a look at the BS meter, we see Heath Bell still owns the pole position. It still appears that three BS this early in the season is the indicator of a closer losing his job. This means Henry Rodriguez is in some tough straights, word.

Otherwise, aside from health, most relievers are “settling down.” The oddest thing on this chart: Chris Perez. The oddest thing not on this chart: Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney (no jinx, jinx?).

Washington Nationals: As noted, Rodriguez is creeping up the BS meter and in rather spectacular fashion: in five appearances since May 8, Rodriguez has pitched 3.2 IPs, allowed nine base runners and posted a 14.37 ERA. He has blown two saves, saved two games and recorded a hold. In the hold, his latest outing, Rodriguez threw 21 pitches, just eight for strikes. Sean Burnett had to come in and clean up the mess for the save. Rodriguez has one more blown save in him before an outright demotion. Given his lack of control, when he blows his next one is anyone’s guess. That said, it’s time to kick the tires on Burnett. When it’s all said and done, Rodriguez will have fine numbers, they will just include masterful and disastrous outings. There is no in between with him and his control. Both Brad Lidge and Drew Storen have just begun throwing following surgeries, with Storen targeting the All-star break.

Detroit Tigers: Jose Valverde, with one of the longer leashes in MLB, would have to get injured to lose the closer role. So, what did he do? He went and hurt his lower back. At the moment, there is absolutely no clarity on the type of injury. Whether Octavio Dotel or Joaquin Benoit get saves during the upheaval is also up in the air. Given how possible it is this situation bears no saves, if I’m speculating, I’ll go Benoit. He’s a good pitcher, whereas Dotel really can’t get lefties out. ROTW for Benoit: 2.89 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 rate. He has been walking guys a bit more and throwing his fastball a lot less, but expect him to get the location under control.

Chicago White Sox: After earning the save Monday night and being, ya know, good at pitching, I fully expect Addison Reed to be the closer ROTW. He’ll put up fine numbers (3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 11.9 K /9 rate). If he’s somehow available, go get him now. This carousel stops here (god I wish I could be comfortable typing that).

New York Mets: Frank Francisco is also jumping up the BS meter, but has received a vote of confidence from his manager and might be tipping his pitches, so there’s optimism he can turn it around. It’s amazing what counts for optimism these days. He did secure his most recent save opportunity, but has also allowed at least one run in his last three outings. For the year, he’s getting a bit jobbed by a pitiful strand rate and enlarged BABIP. He’s still getting a ton of swinging strikes and maintaining his velocity. For some reason, he is throwing his splitter a bit more which could be partly to blame for his walk rate. Or it could be that it’s just 14.2 IPs. With relievers, though, we can’t really make the small sample size argument, as they are judged on SSS all year long. If healthy, I expect Francisco to be fine, posting a 3.15 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.75 K/9 rate ROTW. In fact, I also think Bobby Parnell will end up with the second most saves on the squad, believing there’s a chance both Francisco and Jon Rauch get injured/traded.

Miami Marlins: The Marlins keep winning despite an unreliable bullpen. Since May 1, Heath Bell has two wins, a save and a blown save. During that span, he has pitched five innings, allowed 12 base runners and posted a 9.00 ERA. Meanwhile, Steve Cishek has two wins and two blown saves in May, but has pitched solid and Edward Mujica has three holds, two saves and a blown save. Again, I’d totally avoid this situation if possible. I do think, as commenter @Jack predicted, Cishek will be first in line for saves if this situation ever stabilizes. However, I give him a 55% chance of having the most non-Bell saves with Mujica having a 43% chance and a 2% chance the world ends because of this. ROTW, Bell probably gets the most saves, but it’s going to be ugly.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Scott Downs has been fantastic all year, yet Ernesto Frieri, aka Padres closer of the future, got the final out in a non-save chance Tuesday night. This is likely nothing, but is a bit confusing. I suppose Downs giving up a hit to Daric Barton would make sense to go righty-righty on Kurt Suzuki, but if that’s the case wouldn’t it make sense to give Frieri the bulk of the save opportunities? For the moment, I think Frieri is a sneaky and worthwhile add, even though I’m dubious on whether he can maintain this success away from San Diego. In addition, Jordan Walden has been good lately and really only had two bad outings. ROTW, Walden will post a 3.80 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.90 K/9 rate. I think he gets the most saves rest of the way, but it’s a toss up with Downs and Frieri performing so well. Don’t rock the boat and all that.

Arizona Diamondbacks: With all the closer disasters, J.J. Putz has somewhat flown under the radar. However, he has allowed runs in five of his 12 appearances. The bulk of the damage came on May 9 when he allowed four runs starting with the bottom of the Cardinals batting order. The Diamondbacks were losing, so it wasn’t a save opportunity, but he made a winnable game totally unwinnable. Still, he pitched a relatively clean frame in his last outing. So far, on the year, he hasn’t walked anyone, is striking out a good number and getting as many ground balls as ever. He has just decided to give up all his HRs early on. He’ll be fine the rest of the season. However, he’s usually good for a DL trip a year and might be traded if the Diamondbacks find themselves out of the race, making David Hernandez a worthy pick-up.

New York Yankees: Of course, David Robertson is injured; it’s that kind of year. The strained oblique will prohibit Robertson from throwing for a week or so. While he believes he can be back in 15 days, don’t most foolish ball players? Enter Rafael Soriano. Soriano has been pretty good this year, only benefiting from allowing no HRs. ROTW, Soriano should be fine, if unspectacular: 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.5 K /9 rate. Robertson is worth a stash based on skills alone, but Soriano has the repertoire to take the job and keep it all year.

Well, not much has changed for closers since last month when we did a run down of all of them.  Kimbrel got a save, Axford got a save, and everyone else sucks.  Holly Robinson Peete closers are a mess!  I don’t think there’s ever been so many Brain Freezes before.  I almost feel like adding an extra category below the Brain Freezes called, “The Legend of Gloom.”  Wha’ happened?  Did someone poison the bullpen water?  Has Mariano Rivera made it so when he retires there won’t be any more closers?  There will only be starters and “Those Other Guys.”  To recap this month in closing quickly:  Valverde has been less than stellar, Putz and Street just don’t close games, Motte hasn’t been good, Brian Wilson became Casilla who Bochy pulled after one batter during one game, Joel Hanrahananananan gave fantasy owners the question, “Who’s Juan Cruz?”, Sergio Santos may start throwing at some point in the next few weeks, the Red Sox gave the job to someone who has an over 10 ERA, Frank-Frank hasn’t had a blank-blank inning in forever, Kyle Farnsworth left stage right and Rodney, who couldn’t get saves last year, entered stage “I can’t believe Rodney’s closing games,” Guerra’s been about as bad as expected, Walden blew one save and lost the job, What the H. Santiago?, What the H. Bell?, Grant Balfour might get traded, Jim Johnson gave fantasy owners the question, “Juan Cruz or Pedro Strop?  Wait, who?”, the closers on terrible teams have looked good so they’ll probably be traded or just not save games, and Brad Lidge is afraid of heights and the mound is above the field so he went to the DL which is on sea level.  Got all of that?  Yeah, I’m not sure I did either.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Huston Street (+3) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
6. Jim Johnson (+15) (Pedro Strop, Matt Lindstrom)
7. Joel Hanrahan (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jason Grilli)
8. J.J. Putz (-2) (David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw)
9. Jason Motte (-1) (Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs)
10. Jose Valverde (-6) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
11. Rafael Betancourt (+7) (Rex Brothers)
12. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen)
13. Fernando Rodney (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
14. Grant Balfour (+6) (Brian Fuentes, Ryan Cook)
15. Brett Myers (+8) (David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
16. Joe Nathan (+6) (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
17. Kenley Jansen/Javy Guerra (+2) (Matt Guerrier)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

18. Sean Marshall (+3) (Aroldis Chapman, Jose Arredondo)
19. Santiago Casilla (-10) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
20. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
21. Matt Capps (+6) (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
22. Jonathan Broxton (+6) (Aaron Crow)
23. Henry Rodriguez (+6) (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
24. Frank Francisco (-8) (Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Ramon Ramirez)
25. Alfredo Aceves (-13) (Franklin Morales, Daniel Bard)
26. Carlos Marmol (-11) (Rafael Dolis, Kerry Wood)
27. Heath Bell (-19) (Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica)
28. Scott Downs (-11) (Jordan Walden, LaTroy Hawkins)
29. Matt Thornton/Hector Santiago (-1) (Addison Reed, Jesse Crain)
30. Francisco Cordero (-15) (Casey Janssen, Luis Perez, Sergio Santos, Lloyd Moseby)

Who really doesn’t love a song that isn’t closely related to baseball being the lead in?  I mean I could have made the title Africa, same band, but further from the premise.  So we are onto an update of those every crazy relievers that garner some attention but are like the guys buried in the lower left corner on Hollywood Squares. Sure, they’re useful, but only when you need to go for the win.  These guys aren’t rosterable everywhere because not every league is cool enough to have a Holds category.  Holds are about as wonky to figure out this early in the season as to why BJ and the Bear isn’t still on TV.  Once you get through all the early stretches, you start to see patterns form on the lesser known guys. The big guns for Holds, are guys that are rosterable everywhere and help out with all those hip peripheral numbers that all the stat heads try to figure out in their dorm rooms in between smoking the tweed and Intro to Human Anatomy. So with 4 weeks in, we can see who is setting up who and how they are being used in certain situations.  So enjoy the holds update and how some teams bullpens are breaking down. The NL version will be along shortly.  (Before we get into the Holds post, here’s this week’s FanDuel contest.)

AL East:

Boston - A muddled up mess.  No clear definition is the best I can come up with.  Franklin Morales looks to be the only usable guy outside of when they get the whole Daniel Bard and Afredo Aceves situation in order.  Sleeper guy here is Scott Atchison, he is a hundred years young and has been pretty affective so far.

New York – K-Rob and Soriano should be owned in most hold leagues already.  Look out for Boone Logan, great K rate early on and has started to get more burn with Girardi. Sleeper guy is Cory Wade as he swoops in and vultures all those wins.

Baltimore – Matt Lindstrom is the most popular guy here, but Pedro Strop is the guy to own in Charm City.  Dude throws hard and Baltimore goes to their bullpen often.  Re-tread Luis Ayala has been getting a few 7th inning appearances and could be a sneaky AL-Only guy.

Toronto – CoCo was the main guy, but now he is off to greener pastures.  Until Sergio gets back it looks like Luis Perez is the guy to own here, failed starter turned reliever. 12/4 K/BB rate so far.  Jason Frasor is the veteran presence when all is normal and sees tons of time in front of the closer, whomever it may be.

Tampa Bay – Has the third worst bullpen ERA in the AL.  Joel Peralta is still the favorite for holds, if you can stomach his 10 ERA.  Jake McGee is on the radar but has been very ineffective.

AL Central:

Chicago – I think they have the best set of bullpen arms in MLB.  Crain.  Reed and Thornton have basically been unhittable and Crain is doing his normal thing. Ventura mixes and matches but all 3 should be owned universally.

Detroit – Joaquin Benoit is the guy here, he should have been drafted as a #1 option in holds leagues anyways.  Coke and Dotel are the other options for when Leyland needs a smoke break.  Leyland uses the same set of relievers a ton so expect to see a lot of games from both guys.

Kansas City – Greg Holland was supposed to be the man and he stumbled, enter Aaron Crow.  Has a .161 BAA and should see most set-up chances if they get any.  Sleeper til Holland gets better is Tim Collins, the non alcoholic version of Tom.

Minnesota – Glen Perkins was supposed to be the stalwart here and he has battled both injury and ineffectiveness. Jared Burton has pitched very unheralded because it’s usually Capps who blows the lead after he holds it.

Cleveland – Tons of great arms here to choose from.  Pestano is most likely owned but other usable options are Tony Sipp and Joe Smith. Sleeper here is Jairo Asencio.

AL West:

Oakland – Oakland’s pen has done a nice job so far in front of Balfour.  Ryan Cook leads the team in holds and is the best option moving forward. Blevins and Figueroa are lying in the weeds for low AL Only productivity.

Los Angeles – Scott Downs is the guy to own here.  LaTroy Hawkins  and Kevin Jepsen have contributed early.  Outside of Downs, this is not a bullpen that screams pennant contender.

Seattle – The flame throwing pot smoking Tom Wilhelmsen is the main set-up guy to League.  Sneaky good option Steve Delabar has a comfy 12/0 K/BB rate in the early going, too bad he gave up 4 Hr’s already.  Sleeper here is Lucas Luetge.

Texas - Mike Adams and Alexei Ogando lead the way in holds for baseball and will be used a ton. Underutilized Koji is still very usable and the sleeper here could be Robbie Ross who is the win vulture in the early going.

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra (-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22. Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

As I awake from my winter hibernation where dreams of twins named Thompson abounded, I realize the time is neigh to learn you all about the potential holds fantasy standouts for the upcoming year. Anyone that knows me knows I love relief pitching, come into my apartment you will see embroidered pillows with my favorite relievers over the years stitched in effigy. Now you’re prolly saying, “Smokey, my league doesn’t use holds,” I say blasphemy. Counting stats is the key here, holds are a category but the counting peripheral numbers they will aide is the key to fantasy prosperity. Everybody knows the key guys below that have a lot of value in most leagues, but I am here to tell you about them (again!) plus the guys that will be useful and aren’t the fantasy stalwarts that we are accustomed. Much props to the Don of Holds who is still searching for a job, Arthur Rhodes.  I hope his first hold is a masculine one.  So enjoy the list of these middle men who help out Holds for 2012 fantasy baseball:

AL

David Robertson - How good was he last year? He finished 11th in the C Young voting and 22nd in the MVP. It’s the highest ranking I could find since 1996 for a non-closing reliever.

Mike Adams - Has become the Cy Spurling of holds. Should reach consigliere status to Art Rhodes.

Glen Perkins - A personal fave of mine because he prolly goes 15/15. For those of you slow on the button, that’s saves and holds.

Jesse Crain - Won’t be caught up in the Reed/Thornton closing sitch. Will plod along as being the most underrated reliever in the AL, and make the All Star game because of it.

Greg Holland - Future closer, but has guys that look the part better for now in front of him. So he is relegated to set-up and has to bide his time like Cobra Commander.

Casey Janssen – Is behind the Latino puppet show known as CoCo and Sergio. Could be a good vulture win candidate again this year, and who doesn’t like something of the aviary variety.

Tony Sipp – Three 6 Mafia must have been fantasy ballers, predicting the future. Cause I would Sipp it faster then Jonny Jolly can make it. On a side note, go buy stock in Vinnie Pestano, if you don’t know now you ya know.

Scott Downs – One season in last 5 with an ERA over 3. Crazy good and will see tons of leads with the celestial bodies.

Joel Peralta - My second 15/15 guy here. Has the guy who used to carry P Diddy’s umbrella ahead of him. Yeah, nuff said.

Joaquin Benoit - Is it just me or whenever you see the name Joaquin you think about a cleft palette? Primary to Valverde, which is hamslapping fantastic.

NL

Sergio Romo - No Tony Romo cracks here… Okay, I lied.  He has the same amount of wins in the playoffs as Tony. Uber effective RH who could fill in if Wilson’s Beard has an out of body experience.

Tyler Clippard - The glasses play; I’m sorry, but they do. Back end of The Nats bullpen is scary good, too bad no one else knows it besides me.

Jose Veras - Who? Yeah, exactly. Had a sneaky great year in the Land of Three Rivers last year.

Marc Rzepczynski - Bobby Digital makes the list, for two reasons. One, I like attempting to spell his name and failing then having to cut and paste it. Second, he isn’t anywhere near the closer spot in the Lou and will see lots of hold opps.

Eric O’Flaherty - The other other white meat in Braves pen. Kimbrel and Venters get the pub, but this guy pitches literally everyday.

Edward Mujica - Is tied with Jim Johnson with J’s in their last name. That random factoid is brought to you by the alphabet. Primary set-up guy to Bell, and jumped over what’s his name.

David Hernandez - Literally waiting for a Putz to fail. Oh, the irony is just to easy write about so go out get a Mad Libs and create your own.

Bill Bray - Loogy’s and Dusty, sounds like a trailer park brochure description. Nope, it’s the Nati’s bullpen.

Antonio Bastardo - Pitches like he really has a daddy, though we read it and he seems like he doesn’t… Weird, but true.

Sean Marshall - Looks like there is a new sheriff in Cincinnati. Oh, Pun Fairy, you kill me. Here is a dollar go away. Madson’s elbow is kinda wonky already, so the Marshall could reach that 15/15 status.