Fantasy Baseball Advice

I suggest you grab a 3rd baseman before leaving the top 100, but that’s not always possible.  So, if you miss out on one,  this list is guys that can be had later in your drafts.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen of 2010 fantasy baseball.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Ian Stewart – For those drinking every time I mention Stewart, keep your buzz going.

Adrian Beltre – If he stays healthy, he’ll outproduce Aramis Ramirez.

Chris Davis – May not have 3rd base eligibility in your league (11 games last year).  If he does have the eligibility, there’s a chance he could be a bargain basement Mark Reynolds. (Yes, last year I said Mark Reynolds was a bargain basement Chris Davis.  Weird!)

Chase Headley – He’s a career .301/.368/.437 hitter in 492 ABs.  Oh, that’s in away games.  Yeah, thanks, Petco!  So he’s not going to be last round value that turns into a top 20 hitter, but he could sneak into the top 12 third basemen overall.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – He was actually decent away from Petco in his career.  Then again, he’s moving to another pitchers’ park.  Be hard for me to own Kouzmanoff in a 12 team league… In a 14 team league, Kouz wouldn’t be terrible.  I’d expect a line of 60/24/80/.260.  Nothing spectacular, but in a deep enough league there’s value there.  So, maybe mess with The ‘Noff!

Brandon Wood – Honestly, I won’t believe he has the starting job until I see it.  I have the feeling Scioscia’s spinning bottle is going to stop on Aybar or Izturis’s name to start at 3rd base at least 3 times a week.  It’ll be the Figgy Duets.

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.  The top 20 2010 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go catchers, shortstops, third basemen, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  Last year, I punted 3rd base knowing I could get Mark Reynolds late.  This year, Stewart’s my sleeper du jour, but because of the lack of 3rd base options, he’s not even making it into the 10th round of most drafts.  That’s a bad sign.  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Alex Rodriguez – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball for A-Rod’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Longoria’s projections.

3. David Wright – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Wright’s projections.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Sandoval.  I call this tier, “You didn’t get a top 3rd baseman, so here you are.”  Zimmerman finally came into his own last year.  The homers might plateau around 30 and the average probably won’t go above .300… Then again, he’s only 25 years old and he has some speed potential…. Then again, the Nats have put the brakes on him to avoid injury.  Either either way, Zimmerman’s on the rise with solid power, Runs, RBIs and average.  Hmm… Sounds a lot like Youuuuuk.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

5. Kevin Youkilis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Youkilis’s projections.

6. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball for Reynolds’s projections.

7. Pablo Sandoval – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Sandoval’s projections.

8. Chone Figgins – This is a new tier.  This is a one man tier.  I call this tier, “You better have some serious power from your middle infielders to support Figgy’s dearth.” Figgy’s Dearth is also a great speed metal band.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

9. Gordon Beckham – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Beltre.  I call this tier, “Upside, no upside, upside, no upside, no upside.”  I went over my Gordon Beckham fantasy already.  At that post, I said, “Shoot, Jacquese from The Real World: San Diego could probably see the bottom.”  Then I said, “It’s impossible; LaRussa tried it briefly with Pujols.”  Finally, I said, “I love you, Gordon Beckham even if you sound British and their teeth aren’t the best.”  Hmm… Gotta work on what quotes I pull.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

10. Michael Young – Which percentage doesn’t fit — 8.6%, 6.9%, 7.2% or 14.9%?  If you answered anything other than 14.9%, you might’ve stopped at the “or.”  Fair enough, I do that sometimes.  Those percentages were his last four years of HR/FB.  He’s really not a 20 homer hitter or.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

11. Ian Stewart – I went over Stewart’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.  He also received an Ian Stewart sleeper thing-a-ma-whosie.

12. Aramis Ramirez – He’s Pablo Sandoval with injury concerns, a slightly lower average and no upside.  Aramis is only 31 so you may not want to write him off, but he hasn’t hit more than 30 homers since 2006 so I’m writing him off.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

13. Chipper Jones – Last year, Chipper played in the most games in a season since 2003 and he had his worst season ever.  Hey, Chipper, maybe don’t push yourself so hard to play injured.  ‘09 wasn’t a sign that he can’t still hit .310, just some bad luck.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.310/5

14. Adrian Beltre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cantu.  I call this tier, “You might want to drop these guys from your team before May 1st.”  God knows Beltre had his balls busted enough last year, but in 449 ABs, he hit 8 homers.  So did Gregg Zaun.  The move to Fenway has to help a bit, right?  Sure, or at least that’s what I said.  2010 Projections:  70/24/80/.275/10

15. Mark DeRosa – Is DeRosa a 20 homer hitter or a platoon player?  That’s something to *pinkie to mouth* ponderosa.  2010 Projections:  65/18/75/.265/3

16. Jorge Cantu – I could’ve put Casey Blake here, but what fun is that?  Wait, what fun is Cantu? Yeah, true.  Cantu hit 7 homers in April then took a Taco Bell-sized dump for 4 months.  The batting woes may be attributed to a sore wrist.  In September, he started hitting again.  May have been due to his wrist coming around.  Then again, maybe you’ll want to drop him by mid-April.  It’s called a flier, ya’ll.  2010 Projections:  65/18/80/.280

17. Chris Davis – Only has 11 games at 3rd base so Davis may not have eligibility in your league.  This is a new tier.  This is the last tier and I call it, “Your last chance for some upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Davis’s projections.

18. Jake Fox – Went over my Jake Fox fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  75/24/85/.250

19. Alex Gordon – You know that scene in Notting Hill when Hugh Grant walks through the market and it goes from autumn to spring?  What, not lame enough?  Okay, here’s a lamer example.  You know when Bella is staring out the window in New Moon and the seasons change as the camera goes around her?  Yeah, that’s Alex Gordon staring at his career.  He’ll only be 26 in 2010 and he’s still capable of the upside he hinted at, oh, 4 years ago when he hit 29 homers and stole 22 bases in Double-A and followed that with a 15/14 year with the Royals in 2007, but it’s really getting to be now or never.  2010 Projections:  75/17/85/.270/12

20. Casey McGehee – I went over McGehee’s projections in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

20 1/2. Andy LaRoche – This guy needs Troy Dunn to find his upside.  I contemplated leaving LaRoche off entirely because I can’t imagine him putting together a season to make him worthwhile for fantasy, except for stretches when he can be grabbed off of waivers.  2010 Projections:  75/16/70/.270/3

After the top 20 third basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s some guys, but these two stand out:

Chase Headley – First off, I’d draft Headley before LaRoche.  I only placed them in this order because I wanted to highlight Headley.  So consider him highlighted.  Headley can get 25 homers and steal 10 bases.  Will he?  Who am, Nostradumbass?  I don’t know.  But someone who can produce that should be getting more pub than he has.  I’m righting wrongs like a modern day superhero.  Well, not really, but I am wearing a cape.  2010 Projections:  70/20/85/.290/10

Brandon Wood – The Angels trust him at 3rd about as much as The Old Man trusts Chumlee, but they gotta give Wood the keys to the Imperial at some point.  Don’t they?  2010 Projections: 60/25/75/.250/7 <–optimistic, but whatever

Matt Holliday signed with the Cardinals after it became clear that no one else was signing him.  Other than going to the Padres or A’s (again) or some other terrible team/park, I didn’t think it mattered much where Holliday signed.  He is in the prime of his career and is what he is.  A .315, 15 steal, 25-30 home run hitter.  His absurd 28 steals in 2008 looks to be an outlier.  As does his 36 homer season in 2007.  He’s not signing on for Coors II, The Humidor Breaks.  Currently, I have Matt Holliday ranked in my top 20 for 2010.  (The rankings begin next Monday.  You can hardly wait!  No, you!)  I ranked him there knowing he was probably staying in The Bootheel.  Anyway, here’s other signings and trades and what they mean for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Casey Kotchman – Off to the Mariners.  When your career is five years in and your defining moment is an eight month bout with mono as immortalized by Pulling a Kotchman, you got problems.  A junket to Safeco ain’t helping the cause.  Sorta gives you a good idea about imbalance when Kotchman was a back-up’s back-up on the Sawx and is now the starting first baseman for the M’s.  Conor Jackson looks at Kotchman’s power upside and laughs (then coughs from Valley Fever as he pulled his own Kotchman last year.)  I.e. Ignore Kotchman in mixed leagues unless he’s showing signs in Spring Training or the first weeks of the season.

Adrian Beltre – The Red Sox seem to be intent on making sure the only Lowell in Massachusetts next year is the one 40 minutes NE of Boston.  Our hopes that they’d replace him with a Freddie Saugus or Nick Framingham didn’t work out.  The Red Sox keep signing bleh hitters (Cameron, Beltre) because of their defensive prowess.  Whatever.  We’re a fantasy baseball site.  That doesn’t excite us.  There’s only one good fielder in baseball….and his name is Prince.  Because of his fielding, Beltre should help the Sox pitchers (and their opponents with his hitting).  I keed.  Of course leaving Safeco will help Beltre.  Two things will happen now that Beltre is on the Red Sox.  1) He will be more valuable as a hitter.  Hey, a 315 left field wall can’t hurt.  Unless you’re Mike Cameron and you run into it with your head.  2) Beltre will now be drafted much higher.  So you have to weigh how much 1 warrants 2.  Beltre has been a bit of a hacking mess the past few years.  Last year, he ranked 6th in all of baseball for swinging at pitches outside the strike zone.  Two players worse than Jeff Francouer.  Other than his off-the-charts 2004, Beltre has never cleared the fences more than 26 times in a season.  The Red Sox don’t need production from him so that will either mean he’s more relaxed and hit better or he’ll grow disinterested.  I could see the latter happening.  But that should be offset by Fenway’s favorable conditions.  Either way, he’s a fair bet for 24 homers, a .275 average and 10 steals.  There’s value in that at 3rd base.  Just don’t let his newfound home cause you to push him too far up draft boards.  He did, after all, hit 8 homers last year.  Sure, that was because of a shoulder injury, but what makes anyone think shoulder injuries just go away?  After his shoulder surgery, Mariners medical director said, “(The procedure was) very successful.  We expect a rehabilitation timeline of approximately three to four months.”  That was after his first shoulder surgery back in September of 2008.  He then needed to have a similar surgery in late June of 2009.  I.e., Beltre’s better now, but not without flaws.

Welcome to the year end Razzball Awards!  Unlike the ESPYs, you won’t have to wear a tux or listen to Derek Jeter try to be funny.  Speaking of Viagra — Vlad’s got one good leg and he’s not wearing a shoe on it. Nope, for these awards, all you need to do is read.  How novel!  Anyway, here’s The 2009 Razzball Year End Awards:

Fantasy AL Most Valuable Player – There’s two hitters from the AL in the top ten on the ESPN Player Rater.  Crawford at 4 and Ellsbury at 6.  The next AL hitter is Derek Jeter.  Can we punt the AL hitters award this year?  Wait, I know!  Let’s give it to a pitcher!  Zack Greinke, you’re the Razzball AL Fantasy MVP, how does it feel?  “If I don’t find out who the mother is on How I Met Your Mother by next spring training, I’m going to lose my shizz.”  Thanks for coming, Zack!  You’re the belle of the Razzballies!

Fantasy NL Most Valuable Player – If a no-brainer is my specialty, this one’s easy.  Albert Pujols.

Fantasy AL Cy Young – If Kansas City were a major market, we’d be getting an ESPN movie of the week this winter about Zack Greinke starring Macaulay Culkin.

Fantasy NL Cy Young – Tim Lincecum, but this is pretty close with Javier Vazquez, Dan Haren, Wainwright and Carpenter.  Crazy that those last four guys could’ve been had in any league.  That would’ve made for a nice team if you had all four.  Well, Lincecum gets the nod because he’s 145 lbs.  Those things matter for the Razzballies.

Fantasy AL Least Valuable Player – Grady Sizemore really wanted this award.  He even sat out September in his bid to suck.  But Josh Hamilton started sucking in April.  That’s a tough act to follow, mostly because of the stench.

Fantasy NL Least Valuable Player – The winner is Jose Reyes.  Unfortunately, he couldn’t make it to the awards ceremony because he’s getting in “game shape.”

Special Lifetime Achievement Award That Is Only A Reflection Of This Season And Not Of A Lifetime – Mark Reynolds, because he needed his own award.  Thank you, Mini Donkey.  You made everyone else look like Mini Jackasses.

Fantasy Hitter You Most Likely Dropped and Picked Up A Dozen Times – And the Razzballie goes to Clint Barmes.  He’s starting, but not hitting, I’m dropping him.  He’s starting and hitting, I’m picking him up.  He’s hitting but not playing, I’m dropping him.  He’s hitting and playing… Do I drop him or pick him up?   Forget it, I’m dropping him.  Wait, he’s not even on my team.  Ugh!

Player You Had Forever and Most Wanted to Drop – Felipe Lopez.  Every time I came close to cutting the Fe-Lopezian tubes, he went 1-for-3 with a Run.  If I see one more 1-for-3 with a Run, I’m going to vomit.

Player On The Top Of Your Waivers That You Just Couldn’t Bring Yourself to Pick Up – Michael Cuddyer.  Cuddyer’s boring!  I’ll stick with the rotating Bowden Fluffer turnstile of Delmon Young, Milledge, Dukes and Cameron Maybin.

Pitcher You Streamed So Much You Ended Up Owning Him – Bronson Arroyo.  Now don’t get any pine tar on your award!   A close runner-up was Joe Blanton.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From, But Thankfully It Never Did – Matt Cain.  If regressing to the norm is a 3.50 2nd half ERA, I’ll take it any day of the week and twice on Muesday.

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and It Ended Up Kicking You in the Groin – Johnny Cueto.  Regressing doesn’t have to mean a flippin’ 8 ERA!

Player You Were Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop From and When It Did You Were Okay With It – Ben Zobrist.  Sure, his 2nd half wasn’t as good as his 1st half, but you weren’t actually embarrassed to own Ben Zobrist.  Tell me you saw that coming in February and I have a column for you to write called, “I’m a lying sack of shizz.”

Player You Traded Away That You Most Regretted – Grey seems like a good guy, but there’s no way Mark Reynolds is going to keep this up.

Player You Traded For That You Most Regretted – I just traded a poor-April Verlander and Mark Reynolds for David Wright!  I’m so money and you snitches are so green!

Best Roofie Pitcher – Three way tie with J.A. Happ, Randy Wells and Brett Anderson.

Best Jockular Sphincteritis – Adrian Beltre with his cracked nuts.

Top Cuddle Boy – Ryan Madson.  Our closer is terrible, yet we can’t reliably turn to our set-up man.

Top SAGNOF – Michael Bourn/Andrew Bailey (tie)

Player Who “Pulled A Kotchman“ – Carlos Beltran.  How long can someone nurse an injury that’s “not that serious?”

Remember That Feeling You Had When You Walked In On Your Parents Having Sex, This Pitcher Gave You That Feeling Every Fifth Day – Francisco Liriano

J.J. Hardy wasn’t appreciated by the Brewers earlier this year — I made all the key outs!  I don’t see Ryan Braun doing that! — Well, Hardy will return to the Brewers on Tuesday to pick up where he left off.  Hope he remembers to bring his magic bats with him.  This one here, this one is my runners in scoring position batting .198 bat. Too bad Alcides couldn’t step up in the two plus weeks he had the gig to himself.  Guess he missed the day in If You Have Speed Steal A Damn Base class when they went over if you have speed steal a damn base.  In fact, there’s only one day of class.  That’s all you learn.  This shot of Hardyrenaline will nullify Alcides and Hardy’s value in mixed leagues, unless one gets hot and runs with it.  Runs being the key word, Alcides.  Hardy has pop and little else.  His best month of the last two years saw him hit 9 homers.  Conservatively, I’d say you’re looking at a guy that will give you a .250 average and 4 homers.  I will enjoy not owning you, Hardy.  Be well.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Penny – Signed on with the Giants and will be inserted into their rotation.  Bartleby’s Quote of the Day, “Everything old is new again, except Brad Penny.  He just kinda sucks.” That Bartleby, he’s quotatious!  I do like NL West pitchers and Penny suddenly is on my radar in deep mixed leagues (12+ teams).  In 12 team leagues, I’d grab him for match-ups, but would be cautious.

Jim Thome – Dodgers acquired the forebearer of country strong.  He’ll serve primarily as the guy on the bench that chews tobacco and scratches himself.  Occassionally, he may fill in for the power off the bench when Juan Pierre just won’t suffice.

Jon Garland – Dodgers decided August 31st is the new July 31st as they made a flurry of deals.  Don’t worry, Timmy.  It’s just a flurry of deals.  It’ll pass. If Garland were a Native American, his name would be Man Who Will Serve As Dodgers Long Relief Man In The Playoffs.  For now, he’ll have a slight uptick in value.  Which is to say he goes from negative value to just a smidge.  He’ll give you no Ks, not a great WHIP, but he’s been keeping his team in the game, which could become Wins with the Blue.  Unless your name is Randy Wolf.

Jarrod Washburn – 5 2/3 IP, 8 ER.  About a month ago, I pointed out to you that Washburn’s FIP was showing he was headed for a correction.  His owners and the Tigers obviously didn’t pay attention.

Carlos Guillen – 4-for-5, 2 homers.  Somebody’s been drinking their raw egg Hulk Hogan shakes.  I’m not a fan of Guillen usually, but at this time of the year, he’s hitting with power with 8 homers since his return.  Worth a flier to see if he keeps it up.

Daniel McCutchen – 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks vs. Reds.  The Dread Pirate’s brother from a different mother had his major league debut yesterday.  It was a modest showing against a terrible team.  The Pirates really should be monitoring his innings, but they do what they do, so you can do what you do.  McCutchen has decent value in deep leagues — Think of a 7 K/9 and great control.  On the Pirates, good luck getting wins.

Drew Stubbs – 4-for-9, 2 HRs and a steal yesterday.  His home run balls are still in the left field bleachers since there were only about 2,000 people in attendance.  That’s including players and media.  If you need steals, Stubbs is worth owning.  But, with all of his strikeouts, he’s still a faux hawk away from being cool.

Johnny Cueto – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Great, terrific, welcome back!  It was still against the Pirates and it was still only 5 innings.  I’d risk Cueto in certain leagues, but not for the risk averse.

Chad Qualls – Done for the season.  See yesterday’s roundup for the rundown.  See what I did there?

Juan Gutierrez – Didn’t wanna scroll down, huh?  Gutierrez got the save yesterday.  SAGNOF!  If you need saves, grab him in every league.  He’s just as likely to get 7 saves in September as is Broxton.

Adam Lind – 2 HRs, 8 RBIs.  I fluffed him in a fluff piece just last week.

Rod Barajas – 2 HRs yesterday, but only 5 RBIs so last night he was Barbara Hershey to Lind’s Bette Midler.  But he has six homers in the last 10 games and he’s batting near .400 in the last week.

Jose Contreras – Rockies got Contreras from the White Sox.  This seems like a recipe for blech.

Alexei  Ramirez – 1-for-3 yesterday.  It’s a longshot at this point, but if he somehow gets to 20/20 this year (needs 6/7 respectively), he will be the most disappointing 20/20 middle infielder in the history of fantasy baseball.  He’s like the guy who has a 25 game hitting streak while only hitting .275.  Excite me, Alexei!  Do something!

Vladimir Guerrero – 2 HRs yesterday.  For a guy with 13 homers, he seems like he has ten two homer games this year.  Have to check with Elias or Jayson Stark.

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks vs. the White Sox.  He’s still a risky play in mixed leagues.  I’m not even sure how Blackburn managed 7 Ks.  Guess when the White Sox throw in the towel, they really throw it in.

Cameron Maybin – Returns to the ‘lins, yes!  Has no place to play, no!

Kyle Blanks – Done for the year with a tear in his plantar fascia in his right foot.  He was seen limping out of the clubhouse using David Eckstein as a crutch.

Adrian Beltre – Expected to be activated for today’s game as he was able to take grounders again off his nuts.