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I went ahead and picked up Jarrod Dyson this past week only to watch him sprain his ankle before even entering my lineup. ESPN has him listed as 0.0% ownership, so apparently my team doesn’t even count in their world. I was about to get all depressed about it and throw on my Skinny Puppy t-shirt and black eyeliner when I realized that this is a SAGNOF world, and that means when one speedster goes down, we just go to the heap for another. We’re about 1/4 of the way through the season already, and that means it’s time to take a look at some stats for pitchers, catchers, and teams to try to exploit when chasing steals. I’ll also take a look at what Will Venable is up to and how Pedro Florimon may be a possible source of cheap speed in very deep leagues. At the beginning of the season, I posted the 2012 numbers for pitchers and catchers who should be exploited or avoided when it comes to steals, as well as team SB allowed for matchup purposes.  Here are those same stats through the first 40 games of the 2013 season.

MLB Catchers CS%
Red Light Green Light
Wieters 56% Salty 6%
Rosario 47% Iannetta 9%
Eliis 46% Suzuki 9%
Martin 43% Lucroy 11%
Y. Molina 35% C. Santana 15%
MLB Team SB Allowed
Red Light Green Light
Orioles 9 Pirates 39
Yankees 11 Rays 37
Twins 13 Angels 36
DBacks 14 Padres 36
Dodgers 14 Mariners 32
MLB Pitchers SB Allowed
Red Light Green Light
Griffin 0 Volquez 14
Corbin 0 Burnett 13
Kuroda 0 Feldman 9
Hellickson 0 Cain 8
Kershaw 0 Lincecum 8
Kennedy 0 Hanson 7
Lee 0 Hamels 7
Sabathia 0 S. Miller 7
Wainwright 0 A. Sanchez 7
Stults 0 R. Hernandez 7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes:

Ryan Hanigan and Brian McCann are throwing runners out at a clip of 67% and 57% respectively, but their time on the DL keeps them from qualifying on the MLB leaderboards yet. I would avoid matchups against Hanigan like the plague. He’s one of the best catchers I’ve seen outside of Yadier Molina and gets half the hype. Obviously, I’d be cautious about chasing steals against Wieters, too.

– As a team, the Dodgers have caught 13 base stealers, while only allowing 14 steals. Meanwhile, teams seem to be running at will against the Rays, Angels, and Jesus Montero in the AL and the Buckos and Friars in the NL.

– It looks a little odd to see the Pirates in the top 5 for most SB allowed while Russell Martin is in the top 5 for CS%. This is partly due to the fact that Michael McKenry has allowed 23 SB in only 14 games played this season.

– As far as the pitchers go, David Price would have actually made this list with 8 SB allowed, but I didn’t include him since he’s on the DL. It shouldn’t be a big surprise to see Burnett and Volquez at the top of the list. Of the ten “red light” pitchers, five are lefties and five are righties. I would have thought it would be a lefty heavy list. Those ten pitchers are the only ones in MLB who have yet to allow a steal and have at least 50 innings pitched. Eric Stults is doing his part not to add to the high SB allowed numbers in San Diego.

What does this all mean for those of us chasing steals? When deciding who to sit/start or who to pick up for a week to fill in, it’s wise to look at team matchups and pitching matchups to know which players to avoid starting or adding to our rosters in hopes of a steal or three. For example, as much as I love Juan Pierre, I’m not going to start him in a week where he faces the Reds and the DBacks, but I’ll be sure to get him in there when he sees the Padres.

Adam Eaton, OF  (9% owned) – Eaton is scheduled to begin his rehab at AAA, and could rejoin the DBacks soon. He will most likely be inserted immediately into centerfield and the leadoff positions, and could have an impact in multiple categories, including steals, for your fantasy squad in the second half of the season. If he’s not already stashed, I’d forgo the rest of this article and grab him.

Will Venable, OF (17% owned) – Venable had his second slam and legs in two weeks on Sunday and he looks like somebody that can contribute to a lot of fantasy teams. While his average still leaves a lot to be desired, he’s getting some regular playing time and has shown a nice combination of power and speed already. I’d watch Venable closely if you have a need in your outfield, but I’d be wary of picking him up this week for steals alone, since he’ll match up against both Yadier Molina and Miguel Montero.

Pedro Florimon, SS (1% owned) – The Twins shortstop is more of an AL-only or very deep look, but worthy of a look nonetheless. He’s got 5 steals on the season already, and while I wouldn’t expect much, he’s got the wheels to steal 15-20 bases on the year, which is useful in some formats. The Tigers have allowed the tenth most SB in baseball, and the Twins have a four game set against them at the end of this week.  

Odds and Ends:

Jurickson Profar, 2B – Profar stole 16 bags in 126 games at AA last year, but you really don’t need me to tell you to go pick him up.

Eric Young Jr., OF – Cuddyer could be back later this week, which means EY2 could see more time on the pine.