Greetings, my fine DK’ers and so that we have it out of the way, May the 4th be with you. See that? Now it’s covered so don’t bother me about it. I’m not even a Star Wars fan. There, I said it and I can’t take it back. I don’t care you’re still hot and bothered about Princess Leia in that bikini but I am sorry George Lucas bent over and took a steaming pile on what you divine to be a national treasure and then wiped his pimply butt with the money he made off you. I had a similar thing happen to me with the Alien franchise so I can relate. Alien: Resurrection? *Man dumping trash into trash can emoji* Nonetheless, it’s done, enjoy your new Disney money-making machine while I trudge on in the DFS world. So Travis Wood. He’s been pretty good. Obviously, that’s the only reason I’m suggesting him, right? Welllll, not exactly. I mean, do I love his 9.89 K/9 and his 2.28 BB/9? Of course, but there’s more to love, namely his opponent. On the surface, you wouldn’t think that the Cardinals are a team to attack for Ks, AKA the money-making tool on DraftKings when it comes to taking a pitcher. Their overall team K% of 18.2% puts them 25th worst (well, for them 6th best) in the league. But then you go and look at the splits and realize a hidden gem of a secret. Over 190 PA this year, they strike out 23.7% of the time versus southpaws. But that’s what happens when half your lineup are left handed bats and you force Mark Reynolds into your lineup because he is one of your better hitters against LHP. BTW, thanks STL for those two free Ks! Anywho, let’s move on. Here’s my scalding hot take on the May the 4th be with you DK slate. See, I did it again just for you…
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Dallas Keuchel, SP: $8,000 – To be quite fleeking honest, pitching is a bother today. Sure, there’s your big names in Kershaw and King Felix up there in the nosebleed 12K section. I’m never gonna say no to you there but would like them both more if they weren’t on the road, especially Kershaw, whose in a band box stadium and having already given up 4 HRs on the year. But I digress, like I said, I don’t like the pitching options today so I’m doing what I don’t normally do: suggest a non-K pitcher with limited K upside. In fact, I call him Dallas Euchel because those Ks are silent when he’s on the mound. With Dallas, you’re hoping he’s listening to a little Cake before the game and is going The Distance because he’s not going to go out and strike out 10.
Carlos Martinez, SP: $7,600 – Probably the smarter pick between the two duelers in STL but who has ever accused me of being smart? Wait, that was you? YOU TAKE THAT BACK! Martinez will have an ERA regression eventually but it shouldn’t all come in one game. Yes, I’m linking you back to the last time I said that. Remember that not smart thing I mentioned?
Clay Buchholz, SP: $6,800 – Speaking of not smart, here’s a guy who has an inexplicable second ‘h’ in his last name. I mean, just why? Oh and here’s me staring at a pitcher’s 11.88 K/9 while completely ignoring his 5.76 ERA. You never know from one day to the next what pitcher you’re gonna get from Buchholz. I’m hoping for this Clay, personally, for you and me. I’ll be waiting for that ‘ditto’ in the comments, BTW.
Jesse Hahn, SP: $6,000 – The Twins are grooving, right? Don’t wanna go near them because they went off this weekend? It’s true they got to Chris Sale but, um, Hector Noesi and John Danks, y’all. They’re a boom or bust team and probably will be all year so if I’m going into the teeth of that team, give me a guy who might’ve got his K groove back after K’ing 6 Angels in 5 IP in his last outing. Have I mentioned how much I don’t like today’s pitching slate?
Evan Gattis, OF/C: $4,800 – The big duh, Gattis is at home against a worthless LHP. The two HRs yesterday are gonna make him a hot get so I’m not gonna tell you to force him into your lineups but I am all about an Astros stack today if I can afford it. It’s the least I can do for them after they gave me so much money on Sunday. Consider this a vote of confidence for the LHP mashers of Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Chris Carter.
Josh Thole, C: $2,500 – This isn’t a punt with panache play by any means but if you just can’t afford the White Bear, you can have the other white meat and still have room for something more filling in your lineup.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $4,200 – If I ain’t stackin’ Astros, I’m stacking Dodgers. Gonzo gets the splits advantage and a park bump for LHHs. I fully expect LAD to be playing lambs with Kyle: It puts the Lohse-tion on the skin or else it gets the hose again! Cuz I won’t cover them later, this is my ringing endorsement of Jimmy Rollins, Joc Pederson, and Andre Ethier.
Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF: $3,600 – Yes, I suggested Keuchel. Don’t mean you’re gonna roster him or I am in every lineup today. Kyle has been a platoony toons since before that was a Razz term and gets another lefty. Last time Kyle got a lefty on the mound – Saturday – he went 4/5 with a HR and 3 RBIs. Much like the last time you went at it raw with a girl, saying you’re shooting Blanks out there could pay dividends.
Robinson Cano, 2B: $4,100 – I still don’t like the price and I’m suggesting him and namely because Shoemaker needs to go back to his family business. His pitching game ain’t got no sole when it comes to facing lefties who have a .388 wOBA against him so far in a small sampling size to go with 3 HRs. SEA might be the sneaky stack of the day if you wait for this Shoe to drop. Gimme some Kyle Seager and perhaps Logan Morrison if this is the route you so choose to take.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: $3,800 – In my opinion, BvP is rarely a place to spend much time on hitting analysis unless we have a decent sample size of 25+ ABs and it’s about ISO/XBHs. That said, you give me a knuckle-baller on the mound and I’m all about dat life. A-Rod is 8/24 against Dickey for his career with a .542 slugging. For the price and the park bump for RHHs, I’m on board.
Marwin Gonzalez, 3B/SS: $3,000 – Yes, I suggested an Astros stack so this should already be covered but this is all about price point. I don’t like SS today so I’m fine with finding the cheap get and moving on. Marwin batted 2nd on Sunday with a lefty on the mound. If he gets similar treatment today, he’s a nice punt option who could stumble into 7 points easily based on lineup situation alone. If he scores 10+ and you don’t roster him, you might be deserving of a Marwin Award.
Carlos Gomez, OF: $4,400 – Fun fact, on days where there are big name pitchers on the mound like there is today, I take a GPP shot in the dark and stack against them. You’re gonna hear about Kershaw all day. People are gonna point out the Brewers’ bad team wOBA, wRC+, K% and say the stars have aligned for Clayton to have himself a day. It’s hard to argue, really, when considering the talent that he is. But I just look back to 2014 when the Brewers had four guys – three currently still on the roster – who had ISOs above .200 against lefties on the year. One of said guys was CarGo Ultra. Take this as a crazy like a fox consideration for Khris Davis and Ryan Braun while we’re at it.
Justin Upton, OF: $3,800 – Lefty on the mound, I don’t care who it is, Upton at this price is a great option. You’ll notice I didn’t suggest Madison. More on that later…
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Curious why I didn’t even hint at the COLvsAZ game? Blame it on the rain. If the weather reports hold this way all day, there’s no way this game gets in. Frowny face. The only other game with weather concerns is the STLvsCHC game and it will be one to keep an eye on. It could cut the night short of both pitchers if it gets serious.
Doing Lines In Vegas
If somehow the game in Colorado does go live, it’s the high O/U of the day at 10. In other news, Kim K has a big booty. In other words, ‘duh’. Vegas is basically handing Keuchel the win in Houston with a -200 line which is the best line of the day. Yes, better than Hernandez and Kershaw. Speaking of Felix, he’s only at -135 which goes with the game theory I mentioned in the Carlos Gomez blurb. Could be a night where the King becomes a Pauper. Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez’s line has gone from a -128 open to a current -155 in a game that Vegas has shaved a half run off from 7.5 to 7. Again, I toldja I weren’t smart! Of similar note, Bumgarner has gone from -165 down to -140. Keep in mind these ain’t your mom’s Padres with plenty of bats that are good against lefties.
