We have for us today a 9-game Main Slate on FanDuel, and it’s a bit of a mess on the starting pitching front. We have serviceable starting pitchers with great match-ups who we know* are not throwing over 60 pitches in Eovaldi and Richards (*we do not know, but, you know). We have very good starting pitchers with okay match-ups, only they’re pitching in unfavorable conditions in Wheeler and Flaherty. And we have pitchers with favorable opposing starting pitching, who we’d otherwise love to roster, except Fried is facing the Dodgers and Clevinger the Yankees; both very tough match-ups.
So, what to do? We spread our risk, identify the risk areas to avoid – hello Richards and Eovaldi, identify value when it shows up – hello Chris Owings starting for Boston today, and we embrace the unknown.
Read on for additional written words, and best of luck today. May all your lineups be winners.
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Trevor Richards, SP: $6,400. We are detailing Trevor Richards as a warning today, not as a recommendation. Trevor Richards being called up to face the Detroit Tigers would usually be a welcome boon to our DFS lineups, a situation in which he could excel and provide us great value. The Tigers just struck out 24 freaking times yesterday. This should be an amazing spot for Richards. Yet, it’s the Tampa Bay Rays, so this start is probably not going to be conventional. We also know he was stretched out to 49 pitches in his most recent outing for AAA Durham, so we cannot reasonably assume he will hit 100, or even 80, pitches. The most likely outcome seems to be in the 50-70 pitch range over about three innings, or however many innings that workload limit will allow. He is listed as the starter for today’s game, but, given these factors Richards is not worth rostering today, even with the plus matchup.
Matthew Boyd, SP: $9,300. Boyd’s salary hasn’t been this low since April 10th, and while his recent outings offer cause for concern, there is enough expected value here to feel good about this SP choice. One additional point (groundbreaking analysis alert) is Boyd seems to become more vulnerable against teams as a lineup gets more looks against him (told you). He was facing the Kansas City Royals for the fourth time this season when he put up -4 fantasy points on August 8th, and he was facing the Mariners for the second time in just over two weeks when he put up only 10 points earlier this week. This will be the first look for the Rays against Boyd, so the advantage should be with Boyd here.
Let us look at stacks now:
San Diego Padres – The Padres are the team with the greatest enhancement due to park factor this slate, and facing a not-dominant pitcher in Jason Vargas. So they are cheaper than their expected production would indicate. So they offer great value. So we stack them. Our order of preference is all the right handed hitters vs LHP Vargas:
Hunter Renfroe, OF: $3,100
Manny Machado, 3B: $3,900
Ty France, 3B: $2,200
Manuel Margot, OF: $3,200
Luis Urias, SS: $2,500
Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox are home today facing a pretty bad starting pitcher and a pretty bad Orioles bullpen after that. The implied run total for the Red Sox is approaching 8, by far the highest of the slate. The bats are expensive, but the ride to the upside is well worth the cost of admission.
J.D. Martinez, OF: $4,200
Chris Owings, SS: $2,200
Mookie Betts, OF: $4,300
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $4,200
Rafael Devers, 3B: $4,400
Christian Vazquez, C/1B: $2,600
Andrew Benintendi, OF: $3,800
Sam Travis, C/1B: $2,900
New York Mets – The Mets are in a hot and muggy Kansas City today, with the wind gently blowing out to left. They are also facing a pitcher named Glenn Sparkman, who has, thus far in his MLB career, not been a man providing much in the way of spark. It’s unfortunate for him, but it is very fortunate for our Mets hitters, as this is going to be a great opportunity to score plenty of runs. Order of preference:
Amed Rosario, SS: $2,700
Joe Panik, 2B: $2,400
Aaron Altherr, OF: $2,000
Michael Conforto, OF: $3,700
Pete Alonso, C/1B: $4,200
Todd Frazier, 3B: $3,100
Wilson Ramos, C/1B: $2,900
J.D. Davis, OF: $3,300
I’m Only Happy When It Rains18t
Delay possibilities in Kansas City and Philadelphia, New York and Boston late into their games, and Atlanta if there are popups over the stadium. No PPD concerns at the moment, but make sure to check in on these games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Let’s take the over in Kansas City, with temperatures near 90, high humidity, wind blowing out, pitchers on the mound with a combined 9.81 ERA and the over/under sitting at 10.