Trying to track rotations in September is similar to watching the Cha-Cha Slide at a wedding. Pitchers slide to the right…slide to the left…criss cross…CHARLIE BROWN. September brings so much rotational uncertainty with call-ups, 4 man, 6 man and even 7 man rotations utilized with spot starts out of the blue.
Here are my best guesses and some 2 start notes to help you find 2 start options this week.
- The Blue Jays rotation is up in the air right now. There’s a few option for their 2 starter this week, and could even utilize a 4 man rotation to get a couple 2 start pitchers.
- Jacob Waguespack could move up to Monday after a light schedule for the Jays last week. In this case, Trent Thornton would move up to Tuesday, and if the Jays do run a 4 man rotation, could be a 2 starter. Both would be in the I Immediately Regret This Decision grouping.
- Zack Godley could also take the TBD start for Monday if he doesn’t follow Font on Sunday. Godley has enough intrigue to reach the Maybe, Maybe Not group.
- Oakland is a bit of a mess as well. They’ve said they will give Mike Fiers a break and he got the day off Sunday. It remains unannounced whether he will start Tuesday or have his spot in the rotation skipped. The A’s likely are running a 6 man rotation this week, and maybe even a 7 man rotation technically with their Thursday doubleheader.
- I put Alex Wood on the list, but there are rumors that the Reds may run a 6 man rotation, which would leave Desclafani as the only 2 start option in Cinci.
- The Dodgers and Padres are running a 6 man rotation. Padres continue using their 6 man to spread out the innings on their arms. The Dodgers have too many good pitchers to send another to the bullpen, so, unfortunately, no 2 start Walker Buehler this week.
- The Cardinals may also run a 6 man rotation. Unfortunately, that would cost Capt’n Jack his 2 start week when I’m sure we would all rather him go 2 than Wainwright.
- The Royals may utilize a 6 man rotation, which would cost Mike Montgomery his 2 start week.
No Doubt
| Name | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 | Player Rater | ERA 2nd Half | FIP 2nd Half | BABIP 2nd Half |
| Gerrit Cole | HOU | @MIL | SEA | 32.5 | 2.35 | 2.72 | 0.248 |
| Jack Flaherty | STL | SF | @PIT | 13.4 | 0.98 | 2.39 | 0.233 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | CWS | @MIN | 11.5 | 2.04 | 2.25 | 0.341 |
| Max Scherzer | WSH | NYM | @ATL | 20.6 | 4.05 | 4.2 | 0.355 |
Jack Flaherty is proof that you should trust the skills over the surface numbers when it comes to pitchers, and also point to the volatility that exists in pitching now.
If only some podcast out there had told you to acquire Flaherty….
Pretty…Pretty Good
| Name | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 | Player Rater | ERA 2nd Half | FIP 2nd Half | BABIP 2nd Half |
| Ryan Yarbrough | TB | BAL | TOR | 13.3 | 1.15 | 1.72 | 0.187 |
| Mike Soroka | ATL | TOR | WSH | 13.3 | 2.47 | 3.36 | 0.298 |
| Mike Fiers | OAK | LAA | DET | 11.5 | 2.53 | 4.43 | 0.284 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | SEA | @MIL | 8.7 | 3.42 | 4.72 | 0.235 |
In case you haven’t noticed, Ryan Yarbrough has been among the best in the league in the 2nd half, and in general, as a starter this season. Yarbrough started the season as a long man, occasional spot start, and opener, but after getting the opportunity to start in August, he’s grabbed a hold of the opportunity.
Yes…But
| Name | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 | Player Rater | ERA 2nd Half | FIP 2nd Half | BABIP 2nd Half |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | @WSH | PHI | 6.7 | 3.14 | 2.82 | 0.297 |
| Lance Lynn | TEX | @NYY | @BAL | 16.1 | 3.5 | 3.03 | 0.327 |
| Aaron Civale | CLE | CWS | @MIN | -5.1 | 2.35 | 2.47 | 0.273 |
| Jake Odorizzi | MIN | @DET | CLE | 12.8 | 4.28 | 3.84 | 0.338 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | @BOS | CLE | 11.1 | 4.85 | 3.91 | 0.354 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | PHI | ARZ | 4.1 | 3.67 | 4.32 | 0.266 |
Remember when Thor was up 2 groupings without thinking about it…? Yeah, me too. Although his last outing was absolutely brutal, he has improved in the 2nd half, but as you just saw, there still seem to be some command issues that have haunted him at times this year.
Serviceable
| Name | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 | Player Rater | ERA 2nd Half | FIP 2nd Half | BABIP 2nd Half |
| Joe Ross | WSH | NYM | @ATL | -13 | 1.74 | 3.67 | 0.278 |
| Mike Minor | TEX | @NYY | @BAL | 13.9 | 4.71 | 4.3 | 0.331 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | TEX | @BOS | 3.8 | 5.71 | 4.45 | 0.294 |
| Mitch Keller | PIT | MIA | STL | -17.5 | 7.45 | 4.31 | 0.455 |
| Patrick Sandoval | LAA | @OAK | @CWS | -13.2 | 5.71 | 3.91 | 0.36 |
| Alex Wood | CIN | PHI | ARZ | -13.2 | 5.8 | 6.39 | 0.294 |
Talking about how the might have fallen, remember when I told you to sell high on Tanaka and ignored me? Well, the splitter never came back, and when the pitch that carries the whole mix isn’t working, it eventually brings the rest of the mix down with it.
Maybe, Maybe Not, Maybe Go F Yourself
| Name | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 | Player Rater | ERA 2nd Half | FIP 2nd Half | BABIP 2nd Half |
| Adrian Houser | MIL | HOU | CHC | -0.7 | 2.97 | 4.03 | 0.278 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | @KC | @OAK | -8.5 | 3.96 | 5.26 | 0.283 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | SF | @PIT | -1.9 | 4.91 | 4.08 | 0.359 |
| Asher Wojciechowski | BAL | @TB | TEX | -9.4 | 4.91 | 6.24 | 0.228 |
| Mike Montgomery | KC | DET | @MIA | -11.8 | 3.98 | 4.72 | 0.351 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | @CIN | @NYM | -3.7 | 5.18 | 5.27 | 0.264 |
| John Means | BAL | @TB | TEX | 6.4 | 5.62 | 5.31 | 0.273 |
Part of me wanted to move Adrian Houser higher based on his recent performance. Another part of me wanted to move him down a tier because, well, it’s Adrian Houser. He lands here because the category title felt about right on him with 2 tough opponents this week.
Do You Feel Lucky Punk?
| Name | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 | Player Rater | ERA 2nd Half | FIP 2nd Half | BABIP 2nd Half |
| Dylan Cease | CWS | @CLE | LAA | -14.1 | 7.09 | 5.82 | 0.341 |
| Justus Sheffield | SEA | @CHC | @HOU | -15.2 | |||
| Mike Leake | ARZ | SD | @CIN | -0.8 | 5.47 | 5.57 | 0.328 |
| Drew Smyly | PHI | @CIN | @NYM | -18.9 | 4.97 | 5.33 | 0.307 |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | @PIT | KC | -6.4 | 4.97 | 4.99 | 0.258 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | MIN | NYY | -2.7 | 5.62 | 5.38 | 0.296 |
Free Streamonator Pick: Mike Leake. Home against the Padres and then back to GABP where he has plenty of experience.
I Immediately Regret This Decision
| Name | Team | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 | Player Rater | ERA 2nd Half | FIP 2nd Half | BABIP 2nd Half |
| Peter Lambert | COL | @LAD | @SD | -18.8 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 0.329 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | MIN | @OAK | -16.3 | 6.18 | 4.62 | 0.297 |
| Ariel Jurado | TEX | @NYY | @BAL | -8.8 | 7.52 | 5.93 | 0.338 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | SF | @STL | @LAD | -11.1 | 6 | 5.43 | 0.3 |
| Ross Detwiler | CWS | @CLE | LAA | -14 | 6.11 | 6.76 | 0.269 |
| Tyler Beede | SF | @STL | @LAD | -13.6 | 5.48 | 5.51 | 0.345 |
Projected 2 Start Days and Opponents
| Team | Projected 2 Start Days | Opp. 1 | Opp. 2 |
| AL EAST | |||
| BAL | Monday, Tuesday | @TB | TEX |
| BOS | Tuesday | MIN | NYY |
| NYY | Monday | TEX | @BOS |
| TB | Monday, Tuesday Tuesday Doubleheader |
BAL | TOR |
| TOR | Monday (Possible 4 man) | @ATL | @TB |
| AL CENTRAL | |||
| CWS | Monday, Tuesday | @CLE | LAA |
| CLE | Monday, Tuesday | CWS | @MIN |
| DET | Monday, Tuesday | MIN/@KC | @OAK |
| KC | Tuesday (Possible 6 man) | DET | @MIA |
| MIN | Monday, Tuesday | @DET/@BOS | CLE |
| AL WEST | |||
| HOU | Monday | @MIL | SEA |
| LAA | Tuesday | @OAK | @CWS |
| OAK | Tuesday (Possible 6 or 7 man) | LAA | DET |
| SEA | Monday | @CHC | @HOU |
| TEX | Monday, Tuesday | @NYY | @BAL |
| NL EAST | |||
| ATL | Monday | TOR | WSH |
| MIA | Tuesday | @PIT | KC |
| NYM | Monday | @WSH | PHI |
| PHI | Monday, Tuesday | @CIN | @NYM |
| WSH | Monday, Tuesday | NYM | @ATL |
| NL CENTRAL | |||
| CHC | Monday | SEA | @MIL |
| CIN | Monday, Tuesday (Possible 6 man) | PHI | ARZ |
| MIL | Monday | HOU | CHC |
| PIT | Tuesday | MIA | STL |
| STL | Monday, Tuesday (Possible 6 man) | SF | @PIT |
| NL WEST | |||
| ARZ | Monday | SD | @CIN |
| COL | Monday | @LAD | @SD |
| LAD | Monday (6 man) | COL | SF |
| SD | X (6 man) | @ARZ | COL |
| SF | Monday, Tuesday | @STL | @LAD |
