So what if you took a bunch of us “experts” and gave us $260 to bid with and populate a fantasy team? How accurately can we value these guys? Well, it’s technically still early, but not too soon to see that just like every other year, we’ve missed a lot. Here are the top 10 outfielders in average auction values (AAV) from all NFBC auctions, compared to their earned auction values (EAV) here at Razzball
Aaron Judge $48 vs. $31
Ronald Acuna Jr. $43 vs. $12
Juan Soto $42 vs. $21
Julio Rodriguez $38 vs. $19
Kyle Tucker $35 vs. $8
Corbin Carroll $35 vs. $19
Fernando Tatis Jr. $34 vs. $5
Jackson Chourio $31 vs. -$10
Brent Rooker $26 vs. -$2.6
Pete Crow-Armstrong $25 vs. $15.1
The numbers aren’t apples to oranges comparisons…to state one obvious point, no one has a negative AAV. But it’s close enough, and it’s kind of stark that no one is particularly close to their AAV. I would argue that if you auctioned Judge or drafted him where he went (typically 2nd), you should be perfectly happy with what you’ve gotten so far. His .248 average is a bit light as his K% has lifted to 27.6%, his highest since 2020. But he’s played every day and hit 17 homers with 43 runs, 38 RBI’s, and 5 steals. He’s 5th on the player rater.
Of these others, the next three are on absolute fire right now and may yet earn their draft cost. Acuna started slow and missed 2.5 weeks in May. But in his last 4 games he’s hit 5 homers and thrown in a steal. Soto also missed a few weeks. In 15 games back to May 14th he’s hitting .382 with 9 homers, 16 runs, 18 RBI’s and 4 steals. And then there’s JRod who’s remained healthy but is sluggish out of the gate every year. He had just 2 homers at the end of April, but then mashed 10 in May.
Of the others, well, Carroll is the only one you’re probably not completely gnashing your teeth at. It’s not fantastic, but he has 7 homers and 7 steals each, and he’s hitting .287 with 37 runs and 28 RBI’s. He went 32-31 last year, and he’s a bit off that pace. PCA’s not a disaster either, as he has 12 steals and 7 homers, but he’s hitting .237 and was always a huge risk as he slumped big time in the 2nd half of 2025.
And then there’s the absolute season wreckers. Tucker was my most expensive purchase on my most expensive team (NFBC NJ Auction Championship). He hasn’t destroyed my team, fortunately, as I also have James Wood, but ugh. He’s been healthy all year and has just 4 homers, 4 steals, and a .242 average. His only plus stat is that he’s scored 37 runs. I was kind of optimistic he’d turn this around last time I mentioned him. I’m not so sure now, it’s just not happening. He’s never been a high bat speed guy, but he’s down to a low 71.5 (41st percentile). His EV has dropped to 89.1, his lowest ever, while he’s also making less contact, at 78.8% its his worst since 2020. Not good, Bob.
Tatis’ quest for a homer got so much attention, I’m not going to bore you with that here. Chourio’s woes are mostly because he missed the first month and a half of the season, but he’s also not that great upon his return, as his K% has ballooned to 28.7% with just 2 homers in 22 games. Rooker missed a few weeks too, but is hitting just .194 with 8 homers in the 41 games he has played with a 77 wRC+. Ugh.
So how about the flip side? Here are the top 10 in EAV compared to their AAV
James Wood $41 vs. $23
Oneil Cruz $39 vs. $15
Andy Pages $36 vs. $10
Jordan Walker $35 vs. $2
Randy Arozerena $26 vs. $17
Byron Buxton $25 vs. $19
Mike Trout $25 vs $8
Michael Harris II $24 vs. $16
Cody Bellinger $21 vs. $17
Walker is the biggest “surprise” still, and he just continues to mash. Pages, when last we saw him in 2025, was on the Dodgers bench after a massive playoff slump. I really FOMO-ed this one, I just never got any shares to my detriment, as his metrics have caught up to his production. By that I mean his 27 homer, 14 steal season was a bit over his skis last year, but he’s cut his K’s down and moved his EV up, and he’s on an even higher pace now with 13 homers and 7 steals. He’s the one taking advantage of the Dodgers’ lineup instead of Tucker, as he has a league high 50 RBI’s.
The two top guys, Wood and Cruz, are two major power speed guys whose whiff concerns tamped down their prices. Well, so far so great, though I’d suggest those concerns remain, especially for Cruz. The Pirate has a 34.9% K% in 25 games back to May 5th. But he’s still paying the Fantasy bills with 4 homers and 8 steals over that stretch. His .242 average isn’t great, but you’ll live with that if he goes 30-50 this year for sure.
Wood has gone 16-10 with a league high 53 runs batting leadoff in a surprisingly potent Nats lineup. He’s slashing a fantastic .272 /.411/.548, and his K% of 28.7% is easily manageable while he’s doing that. Now he started on fire in 2025 before a massive 2nd have slump, so he’ll still have to prove he can maintain this for the rest of the season.
As for the others, I’m not sure there are any major surprises. Trout and Buxton always have playing time concerns, but so far, so good. MHII and Bellinger remain solid 5 category assets. Arozerena is a 20-20 machine, and at 6-15 so far, there’s a decent chance he gets there again.
Who you got H2H Carpenter or Marsh?