So, how’s everyone holding up without fantasy baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  This week I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Chris Tillman for 2016.  Then I laughed hysterically for a good twenty minutes until someone asked me to leave.  We’ve gone over the final 2015 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  There’s no more of these godforsaken recap posts left.  You’re welcome.  I, my over-the-internet friend, will be talking about 2016 rookies next.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Michael Wacha – Other than wins, I pretty much nailed Wacha, which makes my preseason rank for him even more perplexing.  *looks at his peripherals*  Wow, he didn’t do anything like I thought he would to end up nearly identical to my preseason ratio projections.  It’s like when you leave your house at the same time as someone else, then you both arrive at the same destination, but your friend took a helicopter and stopped for caviar-covered poutine while you took your hooptie.  Wacha’s K-rate fell, his FIP went up to 3.87 and his walk rate went up.  Essentially, he was lucky to win that many games and have that low of an ERA.  Preseason Rank #69, 2015 Projections:  9-8/3.31/1.22/134, Final Numbers:  17-7/3.38/1.21/153

22. Marco Estrada – An early-30’s, gopher ball-prone pitcher moves to Rogers Centre and the AL East and has the best season of his career.  If you want, you can Skype me to watch as I scratch my head and shrug.  I have no idea, but I have a Ponch I won’t own Estrada next year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-8/3.13/1.04/131

23. Carlos Martinez – I ranked him 74th in the preseason, but some of these preseason rankings are misleading.  I wanted C-Mart on all of my teams and said as much in the preseason, then ranked him a little before he was going and drafted him in multiple leagues.  Of course, I said to drop him in April when he was pitching awful, but that’s quibbling, you quibbler!  Preseason Rank #74, 2015 Projections:  8-6/3.09/1.27/124, Final Numbers:  14-7/3.01/1.29/184

24. Francisco Liriano –  This is what it feels like owning Liriano every year, “He just threw a shutout and K’d 12 guys?  Jesus Alou, how did I draft this guy so cheaply?  *one start later*  Five earned runs in three innings?  I wonder if he can feel it if I drop him really fast to waivers.  *after next start*  A 15-K complete game shutout?  Oh c’mon!”  And that’s how it goes for the better part of six months.  Preseason Rank #33, 2015 Projections: 12-7/3.52/1.26/161, Final Numbers:  12-7/3.38/1.21/205

25. Collin McHugh – Don’t you want to spell his first name Collin’ like ballin’ or fallin’?  Okay, maybe it’s just me.  Wanna know how end-of-the-season rankings lie?  They take into account wins.  McHugh was okay, but 19 wins is going a long way to buoying him here.  Preseason Rank #35, 2015 Projections:  10-9/3.35/1.19/184, Final Numbers:  19-7/3.89/1.28/171

26. Masahiro Tanaka –  Kinda in the same boat as Wacha, and in that boat there’s a Bengal tiger.  Hey, it’s a Life of Pi sequel!  I was right on with Tanaka’s ERA in the preseason, but he needed a ton of luck to get there and that’s showing in his WHIP.  A 3.51 ERA and 0.99 WHIP just don’t make sense together, his BABIP is why, so I guess that’s BABIP = Y.  And now I’m confused.  Preseason Rank #25, 2015 Projections:  10-4/3.49/1.15/150, Final Numbers:  12-7/3.51/0.99/139

27. Garrett Richards – Yet another guy that didn’t really perform as I expected even if his stats don’t necessarily say I was way off.  I was, because I thought he’d only be good for 170 IP, and he pitched 207 1/3 IP, which means his K-rate was much lower than I expected (it was, down to 7.6).  Preseason Rank #44, 2015 Projections:  10-6/3.39/1.21/155, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.65/1.24/176

28. Johnny Cueto – What’s the difference between Cueto and all the other guys up until now in this list?  He can kick an apple off the top of your head?  Good guess, but no.  He’s the first guy here that performed much worse than I expected.  That’s interesting because it means there was quite a few bargains to be had for your pitching slots.  That is slightly less interesting than it could be because everyone knows that there’s pitching to be had late.  Preseason Rank #12, 2015 Projections:  15-8/2.89/1.08/204, Final Numbers:  11-13/3.44/1.13/176

29. Noah Syndergaard – I was mostly off with Syndergaard because I thought he’d only get 100 major league innings and he instead recorded 150.  Well, not including the ton of innings the Mets starters are still throwing.  Can we wrap up this series before it ruins the Mets starters into 2017?  Preseason Rank #101, 2015 Projections:  6-4/3.61/1.29/89, Final Numbers:  9-7/3.24/1.05/166

30. Stephen Strasburg – Here’s what I said after his final start of the year, “From June 1st on, he was hit by random injury after random injury, but when he was on the mound, his ERA was 1.76.  One more time with some stank, in 82 innings from June 1st on, his ERA was 1.76.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Yes, he was Stressbird early on and through the injuries, but, damn, if his end-of-the-season numbers aren’t telling a different story than how good he was for the final three months. Preseason Rank #5, 2015 Projections:  17-6/2.58/1.03/247, Final Numbers:  11-7/3.46/1.11/155

31. Jordan Zimmermann – Random Off The Cuff Prediction Alert!  The Nationals big arms all come through next year like the Mets arms did this year.  Of course, Zimmermann is a free agent so this doesn’t necessarily pertain to him.  Preseason Rank #11, 2015 Projections:  17-7/2.89/1.06/186, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.66/1.20/164

32. Tyson Ross – Ross was also the only pitcher to escape from Rudy’s pitchers to avoid, and since Ross had an April to forget (4.55 ERA) that might’ve had you prematurely ejaculating him.  I’m using an older definition of ejaculating.  Preseason Rank #14, 2015 Projections:  14-9/3.11/1.15/204, Final Numbers:  10-12/3.26/1.31/212

33. Jaime Garcia – I owned Garcia in one league so I know this is what it was like owning him, “He has a one-something ERA so I should start him, but…Wait, let me check to make sure it’s his ERA that is one-something and not his WHIP.  Nope, says here his ERA is one-something.  Let me check his Baseball Reference player page, just in case, because I really don’t believe it’s August and his ERA is one-something.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-6/2.43/1.05/97

34. James Shields – This is what you should be inferring right about now:  there were 32 top starters, then guys that had good stretches.  Preseason Rank #42, 2015 Projections:  13-10/3.42/1.18/181, Final Numbers:  13-7/3.91/1.33/216

35. Jason Hammel – Basically, if you threw 170+ IP and had an ERA under 4 and a K-rate over 7.5, you made the top 40 starters.  What does that mean for next year, because all of this is for the past year, but really it’s to inform us for next year.  It means after your 2nd starter drafted, you could get a third starter from anywhere in the next 150 starters.  Preseason Rank #62, 2015 Projections:  9-11/3.67/1.22/151, Final Numbers:  10-7/3.74/1.16/172

36. Wei-Yin Chen – To continue my Hammel train of thought, Chen only had a 7.2 K/9, but he had 190+ IP so that gets him in the top 40.  That’s me weighing in on Wei-Yin.  Preseason Rank #64, 2015 Projections:  12-10/3.69/1.26/142, Final Numbers:  11-8/3.34/1.22/153

37. Lance Lynn – I thought Lynn had a better season than this, so I went back to look at his game log, and he had an ERA of 2.80 heading into September and really only had three terrible starts all year.  So, the cold hard math that is ranking him 37th here is even underrating him.  Guess that’s why it’s not cold, easy math, or even warm, hard math.  Preseason Rank #43, 2015 Projections:  14-10/3.60/1.28/186, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.03/1.37/167

38. Dan Haren – I guess Chen may not have been owned all year in all leagues, but we are officially in a part of the program where these guys were streamed in many leagues.  To give you a takeaway, you can stream a top 40 starter next year.  Sorry if that takeaway isn’t as good as the chicken tikka masala you got last week.  Preseason Rank #86, 2015 Projections:  11-12/3.98/1.24/135, Final Numbers:  11-9/3.60/1.13/132

39. Jake Odorizzi – Let’s have fun with splits!  His home ERA was 2.79 and his pre-All Star break ERA was 2.30.  In road games after the break, he was egregious.  Those splits were obviously less fun that sploshing.  Preseason Rank #52, 2015 Projections:  10-14/3.83/1.30/181, Final Numbers: 9-9/3.35/1.15/150

40. Edinson Volquez – “Hello, this is Ray Searage calling for Edinson.  I’m calling because he owes me a nickel for every time he pitches well.  I want my $2.00!  No, I’m not doing a Better Off Dead impression.  He really owes me that much!  Yes, I’ll hold.”  Preseason Rank #124, 2015 Projections:  10-12/4.24/1.40/136, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.55/1.31/155

 
  1. J-FOH says:
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    2 DOLLARS!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha!

  2. PancakeMaker says:
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    22??? Any Estrada owner has to shop him right? There’s no way his value gets any higher than it is this off-season.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m not even sure his value is really that high right now in people’s perceptions

      • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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        @Grey: maybe not, but it ain’t getting any higher.

  3. Great article

    WHO ARE YOUR BEST 4 breakout SP next year that will go for under $ 14 in a mixed 280 league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks, Not sure yet

  4. Wilson says:
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    Who do you think in the ranking (21-40) that could become top ten next year? or none of them? Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Syndergaard

  5. Corbleone says:
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    Grey (or another ‘pert),

    I’m in pretty good shape with keepers and need to start looking at some deals. I’m married to Edwin, Hanley, Just Dong and Arrietta for next year. A $2 Andrew Miller, $5 Corey Seager and $6 Carlos Martinez (assuming his shoulder is fine this spring) seem to round out 7 of my 10 keepers.

    My others: $7 Verlander, $6 Liriano, $6 Darvish, $15 Gradner, $12 Calhoun & $7 Soler (only one more year at that price), $5 Piscotty, $5 Burns. Darvish seems close to a no brainer and Liriano kind of does, but if I got him for $6 this year, logically he shouldn’t go for much more next year which proves your theme of his unsexiness.

    I also have Vogt, Moreland, Walker, Iglesias, Tomlin (where will he be ranked?!?) and Nola at $5 who could be a little value to some teams. I don’t mind keeping 5 pitchers. In a weekly league, I load up on mid-level starters to get more 2 start weeks so I can do well in wins and k’s and that has worked for me more years than not.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Soler, Calhoun, Liriano… I wouldn’t bother with Darvish

      • Corbleone says:
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        Thanks Grey, I’m pretty surprised by those three. #stachestrong

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Always!

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Corbleone: I will disagree on Liriano. Is that Taijuan Walker or Neil Walker, if it’s Taijuan I want him

  6. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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    Well, my pitching staff was the best it has ever been this year. People value young talent waaay too much in this league… Here are a few trades that I made in my (5 players for 5 years @ auction cost) 12 team keeper league:

    June – Franco & Rodon for Jake Arrieta. What boggled my mind about this trade was the fact that Arrieta is a $2 keeper for 4 more years… The guy auto accepted it because he loved Franco that much…

    August – Carlos Correa for Max Scherzer/Rosenthal/Bogaerts. This one was a little disappointing for me because I obviously love Correa. Scherzer was making me think I lost this trade up until he threw a no hitter during ‘ship week! Plus Bogaerts was way more valuable that I thought he’d be.

    I won my league for the first time this year! (2 previous years I came in second)

    My keepers performed admirably this year, which made my season. My MVPs — Goldy, Arenado, Pujols, Marte, Harper, Cole, Price, Scherzer, Arrieta.

    Thanks for all the advice this year! This team had Grey written all over it!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Arrieta trade is insane, I can kinda understand the Correa one on both sides…No problem

  7. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Sorry gray. Ok the guy made me an offer. I give up Votto,Cole and kemp for Fernandez Hosmer and heyward

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      It’s more fair for you, what are you trying to accomplish with this trade?

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        @Grey: solidify first base improve the of a little bit more and make my pitching staff better that is my objective

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You want to solidify first base by trading away a 1st baseman?

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            Well I want to counter with this gray: Moustakas Martinez and Kemp for carpenter Heyward and Stroman should I offer it and will it help me?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              That sounds decent, try it

              • Scott Kimmel says:
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                He is mulling it over and will let me know

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Nice!

                  • Scott Kimmel says:
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                    Grey still no word on whether he is accepting my offer

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Geez, takes him a while

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      clsims he wants to do research and will get back to me sometime today

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Gotcha

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      grey he countered with I give up Martinez and Moustakas and I get Carpenter and Stroman. Should I make that deal?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Sounds fair

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      grey should I accept the deal?

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      grey should I accept the deal?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It doesn’t strengthen your pitching necessarily

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      yes or no should I accept the deal?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Depends on needs

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      grey I’m confused. First you said sounds fair then you said it doesn’t strengthen the pitching so should I make the deal or not

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Do you need it to strengthen your pitching?

                    • Red Barons says:
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                      @Scott Kimmel: I mean, it is your team. What do you want to do? Accept? Counter? Grey gave you his advice, he’s not your GM.

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      grey this is my pitching staff:

                      SP Gerrit Cole (PIT)
                      SP Johnny Cueto (KC)
                      SP Matt Harvey (NYM)
                      SP Raisel Iglesias (CIN)
                      SP,RP Carlos Martinez (STL)
                      SP Max Scherzer (WAS)
                      SP Luis Severino (NYY)
                      SP Justin Verlander (DET)
                      SP Michael Wacha (STL)
                      RP Greg Holland (KC)
                      RP Antonio Osuna (TOR)
                      RP Francisco Rodriguez (MIL)
                      RP Joakim Soria (PIT)
                      RP Drew Storen (WAS)
                      RP Shawn Tolleson (TEX)

                      So with the offer does it help my pitching staff, hurt it or is it a lateral move? Getting carpenter helps me at second and third with Altuve and Donaldson at third. I can use carpenter at one of my utility spots. So the real question is grey is it worth giving up Martinez to get Stroman that’s why I asked you

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I don’t see the point of the trade for you

                  • Scott Kimmel says:
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                    Grey I turned the deal down. I want carpenter because he will help out when Donaldson and Altuve are off plus use him in a utility role. I agree with the Martinez and Stroman part. It’s a lateral move

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Makes sense

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      grey. I turned the deal down. Thanks for the advice. Will keep you posted on any trades I want to make

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Sounds good

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      grey just out of curiosity where do you have Stroman ranked versus Martinez

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I don’t have rankings yet

                    • Scott Kimmel says:
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                      grey I am having second thoughts about rejecting that offer. Don’t know if the shoulder issue will linger for Martinez that forced him to be shut down. Talk common sense to me and tell me why I should or shouldn’t make the deal. I trust your judgement Grey.

                • nick the dick says:
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                  @Scott Kimmel: Grey. It’s GrEy!

                  • Beware the Shit Rope says:
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                    @nick the dick: I said it was surprising, i didn’t say i liked it.

  8. Harrison Ford in Air Force One says:
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    GREY!

    A belated major THANK YOU for helping me win my first fantasy baseball championship. Team was anchored by several Grey favorites on draft day–Pollock, Arenado, Arrieta, Carrasco, Bogaerts–and then handy pickups over the course of the year–Fowler, Choo, Lindor, Schwarber.

    Fantasy football is good and all, but I’ve been really lost in the mornings lately without having your updates to read first thing haha. Enjoy the offseason and we’ll see you before you know it for more sleeper picks.

    Cheers!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nice! Congrats, homeboy! I don’t know football, and don’t understand its appeal, but I’m in the minority…

  9. DBo says:
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    Dynasty league advice: Was offered Moose for Wheeler. I don’t have a 3B but I do have Gallo waiting in the wings for 3B but his eligibility at 3B relies on Beltre. Likely won’t use him until 2017. My SP’s are Hamels, Wacha, Stroman, C Martinez, Urias, Lackey. Wheeler or Moose side? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Meh, it’s fair, I’d hold

  10. Packers says:
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    In weekly league guys like Chen, Quintana, Liriano,Lynn along with a couple good closers is the making of a solid staff. Agree?
    In a dynasty keep all Wheeler is sitting in the FA pool. Is he a must add in a vacuume?
    I ended up winning 2 of my 5 leagues with your help.
    One slow Draft I did early I came in last, and quit playing in June. I had pick 11 and took Gomez and Rendon at the turn. Wheeler and Cobb where my 1st two pitchers. I took Arenado and Dickerson pick 3 and 4. Ouch. Like you have said don’t Draft early.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree…I’d add Wheeler

  11. J-FOH says:
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    Conforto showing some wheels

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, Mets looking much better since the 3rd

      • Zeus says:
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        @Grey: they have. Now the pen comes in though. Luckily Fat Bart doesn’t give a shit

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You don’t get to look like Bartolo and care

          • Zeus says:
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            @Grey: ha

          • Zeus says:
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            @Grey: Uribe going deep

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, Mets got hot finally

  12. Jef With 1 F says:
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    What’s up boo…Goo Mets

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Go Mets!

  13. nick the dick says:
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    Fargo and Nathan…Go!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I watched them both… Gotta say I thought Nathan was kinda lame this week… Felt very staged… Fargo is so effin good, though…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: do check out most the Netflix original series?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          What?

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: there are a lot of Netflix original series, do check them all out?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Just the ones that I’ve heard good things about

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: have you seen the killing?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, I watched the first season

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: and…how was it?

                    • nick the dick says:
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                      @J-FOH: just stop messing around and watch Fargo

      • nick the dick says:
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        @Grey: go buy it for yourself

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha… I do by that the news stations actual featured it, but I didn’t by the guy he ‘hired’ to be the face of it… He seemed like an actor

          • nick the dick says:
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            @Grey: You ever think that it seems staged sometimes because it couldn’t possibly be that good, when it really is just that good? I thought the whole thing was brilliant and actor or no actor that guy was one funny idiot. ‘Sign this, just in case of your death, we have the rights to use your likeness, have your DNA’, Steve Jobs childhood friend? Jungle children? haha c’mon!…Fargo, no need to say anything. At the end when blank blanks the hot blank over him? So good. Salverson is badass.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I wanna watch the same episode of Fargo twice it’s so good… Oh wait, I did this week because Cougs slept through the first screening so I watched again with her… How good in Mike Miligan?

              • nick the dick says:
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                @Grey: Ha, standard stuff…dude, I was gonna say about Mike, love him.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Not to sound like Gene Shalit, but Bokeem Woodbine is a revelation…

                  • nick the dick says:
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                    @Grey: Haha you’re Shalit-esque in the top lip region. Never thought I could be so enamored by a man with a name such as Bokeem, but cat got my tongue, Bokeem got me sprung

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      The rest are dung

  14. FrankGrimes says:
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    Your ring depends on Addison reed yuck!

  15. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey

    I know we talked about not doing the deal of Moustakas and Martinez for carpenter and Stroman but here is my thinking why I should. But like I said I trust your judgement and opinion.

    1) Carpenter is 2b and 3b eligible so he can back up Altuve and Donaldson plus be a nice utility bat
    2) The question about Martinez arm that caused him to be shut down at the end of the season concerns me so why not try and get something for him now.
    3) Stroman could be a nice fit with Scherzer,Cole,Harvey,Verlander,Cueto,Severino Wacha,and Iglesias. But Martinez is a little bit more polished.

    So tell me your thoughts. I wanted to get your opinion before I either made or rejected the deal. Please walk me thru it. Thanks in advance Grey.

Comments are closed.