Ah, the smell of a new clubhouse! This week marks our favorite time of year: where winning MLB teams acquire great players to make their championship runs, and where losing teams sell their top players for minor leaguers nobody will see until 3 years from now [stares at Simeon Woods-Richardson]. If you’re a fan of a team that’s buying, congrats! I hope you get a Juan Soto in your “Christmas in July” stocking that hangs over the fire pit. For the rest of us that sing the praises of teams who are classic “selling” teams, may your up-turned cocktail glasses bring you solace.
Let’s check in on the deals and rumors!
Done Deals
Luis Castillo: Two weeks ago, I said the only thing a fantasy manager could want out of Castillo was some Wins. Luis, it’s time to get a Starbucks gift card and pull up one of those Adirondack chairs at SEA-TAC because you’re going to a winning team: the Seattle Mariners! Well, sort of winning. Maybe, just, winning more than the Reds? At the time of writing, the Mariners clung to the second AL Wild Card spot, with basically no chance of catching the division leaders, the Houston Astros. Castillo’s fantasy value improves dramatically: the Mariners want to win, giving Castillo a shot at that fantasy category that has eluded him so far. Additionally, the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is the third-worst ballpark for pitchers in 2022, whereas Seattle’s T-Mobile park is ranked 18th worst, which I suppose normal people would call 12th best. ENYWHEY. Those of you who held on to Castillo could see him surge into the top 20/30 pitchers to finish the year. Congrats! And because Castillo is still under team control, Mariners fans benefit from this trade for years to come. Or, at least, one more year until Castillo hits free agency. Save your Starbucks points!
Chris Martin: I love Coldplay! Martin is a Roleless Rob without any of the W benefits, mostly because he played for the Cubs. Now he’ll play for the Dodgers. It’s pretty ridiculous to try and predict what a team like the Dodgers would do with Chris Martin, other than pair him with Imagine Dragons and charge $600 per ticket. Don’t acquire.
Wow, that was so exciting! On to the rumors!
Rumors
This article was submitted Sunday night (7.31.22).
Shohei Ohtani: Rumors, rumors, rumors. So far, the Los Angeles Angels of Annapolis, Maryland have declined all trade offers. Apparently the same is true for the Anaheim-based Angles team. Still, in the past week, we learned that the Angels’ star outfielder Mike Trout has a chronic inflammatory condition that will affect his back and cause him to take extended and unpredictable trips to the IL. Could this revelation lead the Angels to start a rebuild? The Angels could trade Ohtani for the entire Pirates team at this point…which would then make them the Pirates + part-time Mike Trout. Is that any better? As a Minnesotan, I lived through the 2007 Kevin Garnett for 3/4 of the Boston Celtics trade that brought another championship to Bean Town. Meanwhile, out here in the corn fields, the Wolves did nothing with their trade assets and failed to break .500 until the 2017 season. Are you listening, Angels management? Ohtani’s fantasy value would skyrocket if traded — I mean, he continues to top the Player Rater despite having guys like Luis Rengifo batting behind him. Ohtani becomes arbitration eligible in 2023 and a free agent in 2024. There are GMs out there who are absolutely gnawing at the bit to acquire Ohtani and make him a half-billion dollar man (source: my imagination). Imagine Ohtani ending up in Yankee Stadium, or batting alongside the Blue Jays hitters. Those teams wouldn’t need to pay him until 2024 even. Whew, I’m getting sweaty. No news is bad fantasy news: for now, Ohtani’s staying in Anaheim.
Carlos Rodon: NBC reports that the San Francisco Giants are thinking about trading Rodon, which would signal — most likely — that the Giants are packing in the season and not aiming for the playoffs. Rodon’s been one of the best pitchers in MLB this year, and moving to a more competitive team could buffet those Wins and give fantasy managers a top 10 SP for the rest of the season. Rodon’s guaranteed money runs out after the season and reports indicate that Rodon isn’t interested in staying in the Bay Area, so he could be an acquirable asset for just about any team out there for a reasonable price.
Frankie Montas: The Athletics are giving up on their Moneyball pursuit and going straight dumpster fire. Montas will likely be traded in the next few days. MLB Trade Rumors reported that the front-runners in the Montas trade market are the Cardinals, Yankees, and Blue Jays. Montas has basically replicated his 2021 campaign, which earned him a respectable SP22 finish. Thing was, in 2021, Montas notched 13 Wins. In 2022, Montas has 4 Wins. Yeesh. The Cardinals would be the obvious fantasy best-landing for Montas (do you want to pitch in the AL East?). Regardless of the landing spot, Montas should stay on your roster — he’s not a fantasy sell, unless he ends up on a dark horse team like the Rangers or something.
Tyler Mahle: Same story as Castillo above — moving out of the Great American Ballpark will do wonders for Mahle. Since May 29, Mahle has a 2.83 ERA, 10+ K/9…and 3 Wins in 9 Games Started. Yeesh. Like Luis Castillo, Mahle is still under team control, meaning that potential suitors will likely need to pay beaucoup bucks to land the 27-year-old starter. That said, if you’re a GM of a team that’s 2-3 years from contending, I’d love to employ Mahle. In the past 3 years, Mahle has notched over 330 IP, good for 26th most in MLB, basically tied with Charlie Morton, Logan Webb, and Brandon Woodruff. In the similar cohort of SP, Mahle is 9th overall in K/9, ranking ahead of the likes of Yu Darvish and Luis Castillo. Mahle’s 3.93 ERA sits in-between Aaron Nola and Lucas Giolito, and his 3.75 FIP is just behind Dylan Cease. Fantasy managers — cross your fingers. Mahle on a winning team — or just a competent team — could be a top 15 SP for the rest of season or even next year.
Tucker Davidson: For whatever beat writers are worth, Atlanta Braves writer Mark Bowman noted this week that he thinks the Braves trade two prospects for Tyler Mahle. He lists Kyle Wright and Tucker Davidson as intriguing prospects. I doubt Wright gets moved now — he’s clearly figured it out and he’s under team control until the Forward Party decides a political platform. But Davidson? He’s still got a lot to prove. It’s not like the Great American Ballpark is a great place to prove yourself — see Mahle and Castillo — but opportunity is king. Davidson needs an opportunity, and if the beat writers are name-dropping, it pays to listen.
News and Notes
Brady Singer: I left Singer off of last week’s update because it was getting way too long. Singer’s K/9 had been nearly as blistering (in a good way, like sunburn) as other top pitchers, but at 2K words, I decided to call it a week without a Singer sighting. Then Singer goes for 10K against the Yanks, with an insane 15+ K/9 over his last two outings. Yes, pickup Singer if he’s available. His fastball velocity is up 2 MPH over the past few games, and we’re seeing enough clues of changes that merit Singer entering fantasy relevance for 2022. Just don’t be terribly disappointed if Singer turns into a pumpkin again — his 4.30 ERA matched his 4.20 FIP for the first two months of the year, and he’s only sustained 9+ K/9 one time in his career — a short burst in 2021, where he also had a 6+ ERA and nearly 5 FIP. Fingers crossed Singer can hit the high notes to finish 2022.
Alex Cobb: 10+ K/9 with a near 2.00 ERA over his last three starts. He’s always coming back from injury, and it looks like he’s back on track. Hasn’t allowed a barrel in his past 4 games. Acquire and start.
Braxton Garrett: Seems like he’s learning at the Sandy Alcantara School of Pitchcraft and Whiffery. [thinks about fan fiction] Garrett was pretty bleh when he arrived in MLB, with a K/9 in the 7ish range and an ERA of 4.30. Over his last three starts, Garrett learned his Whiffyarmus spell, with a K/9 exceeding 13.0 and his FIP sitting in the 2.00 range. Admittedly, two of those games were against the Pirates and one against the Reds…but a Whiffer has to start somewhere, right? Acquire, start, but be ready for trolls.
Bailey Falter: Has been picking up slack in the Phillies’ rotation throughout the year, but his 11+ K/9 and 2ish BB/9 over his last 4 starts is intriguing. His BABIP is near .350, meaning teams have been getting overly lucky on contact; the launch angle of nearly 25 degrees doesn’t help. Could be an intriguing arm for deep league managers or those looking for NFBC spot starts — high risk, high reward.
Jose Berrios: Ah, schadenfreude. As a Twins fan, I miss Berrios. Then, as a Twins fan, I secretly had a twinge of satisfaction when Berrios struggled out of the gate in 2022 — not as a hate on Berrios, but more as a satisfaction that I wouldn’t be reliving another instance of “Departed Twin becomes Hall of Famer for another team.” So, Berrios’ first half of 2022 was utter trash and a lot of people gave up on him. But Berrios’ past 5 starts? 11+ K/9, sub 2.0 BB/9, 3.41 ERA/3.20FIP. Is Berrios back? Maybe. He still needs to get more whiffs — his swinging strike rate is massively variant, ranging from 5% to nearly 20%. But, you don’t care when Sandy Alcantara does that, right? More interesting about Berrios is his .364 BABIP over that period. BABIP can be driven by multiple factors, but two primary factors are 1) luck (hit it where they ain’t) and 2) line drives (can’t field what zooms past you). Berrios’ line drive percentage is a nice 18% over the past 5 games, which indicates that we’re seeing more damage done from “bad” luck than the quality of hits. With this evidence in hand, I’m happy to say: start Berrios from here on out. [Siri, remind me to delete this article if Berrios breaks bad again]
Spencer Strider: Just about every week, people ask me, “Are you actually confident in your Spencer Strider ranking?” I mean, I’m confident of nothing. Just ask my friends about my self-image. But, the reason I make this weird little equation is to try and figure out which pitchers are going to do well in the near future. Since Strider debuted atop my rankings after my vacation in June, the rookie has notched a 13.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.20 ERA/1.90 FIP, and 2 Wins while racking up 32 IP. His swinging strike rate has topped 20% multiple times, and his barrel rate is a paltry 6% (5 barrels allowed in his last 7 starts). Strider is now SP30 on the year, and his fantasy value lags only because of his lack of W — he has the fewest Wins of any SP in the top 30 (Strider is the only negative value Win SP among the top 30 SP). Now, any player can turn into a pumpkin at any time — that’s just the nature of the game. But right now, Strider’s showing us all that he’s deserving of an elite ranking for the rest of the year.
The Rankings
Tier | Name | Team | Confidence | Own% | L30$/G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Spencer Strider | ATL | 5.210 | 100 | 24 |
1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | 5.188 | 100 | 27.7 |
1 | Carlos Rodon | SF | 5.100 | 100 | -10.2 |
1 | Shane McClanahan | TB | 5.037 | 100 | 48.6 |
1 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | 4.955 | 100 | 27.6 |
1 | Max Scherzer | NYM | 4.935 | 100 | 31.1 |
1 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | 4.916 | 100 | 11.9 |
1 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 4.881 | 100 | 24.9 |
1 | Dylan Cease | CHW | 4.722 | 100 | 43.3 |
1 | Cristian Javier | HOU | 4.657 | 100 | -3.5 |
1 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | 4.523 | 100 | -27.9 |
1 | Blake Snell | SD | 4.189 | 100 | 15.4 |
1 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.061 | 100 | 3.7 |
1 | Aaron Ashby | MIL | 3.941 | 89 | -22 |
1 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 3.859 | 100 | 28.4 |
1 | Max Fried | ATL | 3.832 | 100 | 10.2 |
1 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 3.823 | 100 | 26.4 |
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | 3.807 | 100 | -1.8 |
1 | Yu Darvish | SD | 3.767 | 100 | 21.8 |
1 | Shane Bieber | CLE | 3.757 | 100 | -1.7 |
1 | Alex Cobb | SF | 3.682 | 86 | -12.5 |
1 | Jon Gray | TEX | 3.643 | 100 | 19.3 |
1 | Hunter Greene | CIN | 3.638 | 64 | -35.9 |
1 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 3.614 | 100 | 20.7 |
2 | Justin Verlander | HOU | 3.593 | 100 | 57.5 |
2 | Tyler Mahle | CIN | 3.582 | 100 | 10.8 |
2 | Joe Musgrove | SD | 3.554 | 100 | -17.1 |
2 | Luis Castillo | SEA | 3.547 | 100 | 23.1 |
2 | Frankie Montas | OAK | 3.505 | 100 | -16.7 |
2 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | 3.498 | 100 | -44.9 |
2 | Corey Kluber | TB | 3.484 | 100 | -10 |
2 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | 3.480 | 100 | 14.8 |
2 | Framber Valdez | HOU | 3.479 | 100 | 0.4 |
2 | Alex Wood | SF | 3.476 | 91 | 24.9 |
2 | Brady Singer | KC | 3.454 | 70 | 13.4 |
2 | Pablo Lopez | MIA | 3.444 | 100 | 11.8 |
2 | Chris Bassitt | NYM | 3.440 | 100 | -2.3 |
2 | Kyle Wright | ATL | 3.424 | 100 | 19.1 |
2 | Logan Webb | SF | 3.401 | 100 | -0.8 |
2 | Martin Perez | TEX | 3.398 | 100 | 10.6 |
2 | Ross Stripling | TOR | 3.390 | 66 | -10.8 |
2 | Tyler Anderson | LAD | 3.382 | 100 | 34.4 |
2 | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | 3.380 | 100 | 22.3 |
2 | Charlie Morton | ATL | 3.379 | 100 | 2.1 |
2 | Alek Manoah | TOR | 3.362 | 100 | 2.3 |
2 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | 3.352 | 100 | 44.2 |
2 | Zac Gallen | ARI | 3.350 | 100 | 5.2 |
2 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | 3.348 | 100 | -12.4 |
2 | Jose Quintana | PIT | 3.311 | 7 | -7.6 |
2 | Sonny Gray | MIN | 3.309 | 100 | -28.4 |
2 | Robbie Ray | SEA | 3.300 | 100 | -17.4 |
2 | Luis Garcia | HOU | 3.265 | 100 | 8.5 |
2 | Luis Garcia | HOU | 3.265 | 100 | 8.5 |
2 | Luis Severino | NYY | 3.254 | 100 | -10.8 |
2 | Marcus Stroman | CHC | 3.229 | 55 | 7.9 |
2 | Jameson Taillon | NYY | 3.229 | 100 | -20.7 |
2 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | 3.224 | 100 | 5.2 |
2 | Julio Urias | LAD | 3.213 | 100 | 32.5 |
2 | Jeffrey Springs | TB | 3.204 | 89 | -44.5 |
2 | Taijuan Walker | NYM | 3.167 | 100 | 21.6 |
2 | Miles Mikolas | STL | 3.152 | 100 | 0.7 |
2 | Justin Steele | CHC | 3.129 | 5 | -4 |
2 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | 3.127 | 100 | 42.1 |
2 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | 3.120 | 57 | -87.1 |
2 | Paul Blackburn | OAK | 3.093 | 48 | -52.6 |
2 | Keegan Thompson | CHC | 3.086 | 32 | -13.8 |
2 | David Peterson | NYM | 3.077 | 20 | -18.5 |
2 | JT Brubaker | PIT | 3.067 | 14 | -14.5 |
2 | Edwin Diaz | NYM | 3.066 | 100 | 8.5 |
2 | Zach Eflin | PHI | 3.065 | 20 | |
2 | Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.048 | 100 | -27.4 |
2 | Sean Manaea | SD | 3.041 | 95 | -41.9 |
2 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | 3.028 | 100 | -14.3 |
2 | Lucas Giolito | CHW | 3.017 | 100 | -19.3 |
2 | Joe Jimenez | DET | 3.008 | -0.6 | |
2 | Adam Wainwright | STL | 3.003 | 100 | -13.2 |
3 | Walker Buehler | LAD | 2.967 | 93 | |
3 | A.J. Minter | ATL | 2.947 | 61 | -5.7 |
3 | George Kirby | SEA | 2.944 | 86 | -3.1 |
3 | Mitch Keller | PIT | 2.934 | 9 | -2.8 |
3 | Kenley Jansen | ATL | 2.931 | 100 | 1.1 |
3 | Cole Irvin | OAK | 2.921 | 45 | 46.8 |
3 | Devin Williams | MIL | 2.913 | 100 | 0.4 |
3 | Andres Munoz | SEA | 2.911 | 25 | 0.1 |
3 | Daniel Lynch | KC | 2.896 | -51.8 | |
3 | Taylor Rogers | SD | 2.892 | 100 | -3.8 |
3 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | 2.882 | 100 | |
3 | Trevor Williams | NYM | 2.879 | 0.2 | |
3 | Joe Ryan | MIN | 2.861 | 100 | -15.7 |
3 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | 2.853 | 73 | 32 |
3 | Eli Morgan | CLE | 2.852 | 7 | -7.6 |
3 | Noah Syndergaard | LAA | 2.851 | 91 | -22.5 |
3 | Ian Anderson | ATL | 2.839 | 66 | -29 |
3 | Justin Wilson | CIN | 2.829 | ||
3 | Ryan Helsley | STL | 2.829 | 100 | 11.7 |
3 | Rich Hill | BOS | 2.824 | -44.8 | |
3 | Brooks Raley | TB | 2.823 | 39 | -4.9 |
3 | Jose Berrios | TOR | 2.813 | 100 | -0.8 |
3 | Kyle Gibson | PHI | 2.809 | 39 | -17.5 |
3 | David Bednar | PIT | 2.807 | 100 | -4.7 |
3 | Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | 2.800 | 95 | -91.2 |
3 | Hunter Harvey | WSH | 2.799 | -2.7 | |
3 | Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | 2.797 | 2 | -1.9 |
3 | Dylan Bundy | MIN | 2.796 | 7 | -23.5 |
3 | Penn Murfee | SEA | 2.791 | -3.8 | |
3 | Eric Lauer | MIL | 2.779 | 84 | -6.7 |
Hi Blair,
i should have listened to you and played Springs. of course, i didn’t. Lesson to self.
1. Would you play Miami’s Pedro Lopez on the road at the Cubs?
2. his next start is home against Atlanta. i was leaning to starting him at home. I was not sure about the game at Wrigley. what are your thoughts.
thanks!
Sorry I didn’t get here sooner! Yeah, Cubs start made sense. Vs Atlanta? I’d give it a shot. fingers crossed!
Hi Blair,
would you start TB’s Jeffrey Springs at Detroit?
thanks!!
martin
yup, go for it!
thanks!!
Yo Blair! Great stuff man. I love the in-depth info you provide on pitchers. Can I make a request for your next post? Would you mind, or is it even possible to give us a list of pitchers that might have their innings limited down the stretch? That, on top of your insight would be extremely helpful!
Also, where’s reid detmers belong on this list?
On my current list, Detmers just landed at #86. System hates his season-long FIP, but his last 30 days FIP looks great.
Yeah, no prob! We’ll make next week “The End is Nigh” edition. :) Thanks for the support!
Thank you!
Also, I don’t know what the problem is, but it’s very difficult to find your posts while on the mobile version of the razzball website. It’s not rendering correctly or something. See the attached screenshot…
H Blair,
Thanks for your wit: loved your clever comment you that you’re a psychic. Took your advice and picked up Singer and will start him today.
i ha tricky question. i have both the LAD’s Tyler Anderson and the Giants’ Wood. of course, the Dodgers are playing SF at SF. Would you start both Anderson and Wood or sit one? if you are starting one, who would you start?
thanks!!
martin
I’m starting both and expecting two no-hitters! Or maybe 2 quality starts. :) Good luck!
To make room for Luzardo them Peralta gotta drop 2, having trouble deciding
Stroman, Walker, Manaea, Ryan
Wins and ERA are what matters to me
I know Ryan is lower on my rankings but I like his upside more. I’d let Str0 and Walker go first.
Hi Blair,
The week officially starts with your Monday column.
1. Yesterday was not a good day, i Pitched Pablo Lopez and lost 26 points Do you think that i should hang in there with Lopez? His next start is on the road at the Cubs. i was going to start him on the road against the Cubs. Do you agree?
2. yesterday, i started Aaron Ashby and wound up with a loss and only 7 points. i have two questions about Ashby. Is he still a keeper? Would you start him in his next start at home against Cincinnati?
3. i think that I could use at least one more bat and would have to therefore waive either Ashby or Jeffrey Springs. i just am not sure. Thoughts on Springs. His next two starts are both on the road against Detroit and Milwaukee. is he a keeper? Would you sit or start him on these two road starts?
thanks again!
martin
Yeah keep Lopez — bombs happen to every pitcher. Can be a ton of reasons — it’s when a pitcher lines up 3+ bad starts in a row where you get concerned.
Ashby’s been doing really well with his true skill stats — last outing was 0 ER, so not really his fault. Keep pitching.
I’d start anybody vs DET — if you can keep him for DET and then move on, that’s fine by me. Good luck!
Thanks for for your help and detailed responses!!
These never make sense to me. Verlander in the “2” group and guys like Greene, Snell, and Ashby above him in “1”??
“top 100 starting pitchers” seems misleading
I read this every week… and can never wrap my head around it. Maybe I’m missing something.
Always happy to point to the pre-season articles for in-depth explanation. :) The Player Rater up top on the Razzball nav bar will show you the actual top 100 SP for fantasy rankings. My job here is to provide a different projection based on true skill numbers that will help pick up hints of players before they break out. As concerned as we can be about Ashby, over his past 5 starts, he has a 2.83 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and a 10+ K/9, with a BABIP of .320 — signs point to a better performance yet to come. Meanwhile, over the same span, Verlander’s K/9 is lower than Ashby, with his xFIP nearly 4x as high as his ERA. Signs point towards a worse than expected fantasy outcome for Verlander in the near future. But like all fantasy rankings, there’s great uncertainty: analysts can merely point the way, because if we were psychic and perfectly accurate, we’d be employed by MLB teams.
Best of luck on the rest of the season
Any reason for true continued confidence in Sandoval? He has a 1.5 WHIP and 3 wins. So he is basically helping in 2 categories in roto (ks and era) and the ERA feels super miss leading given he is putting 1.5 batters on pace each inning. The stuff is good, not denying that. But he had a bad fastball and just doesn’t seem to put it together. Constantly labors in his starts.
A big factor is his BABIP sitting at or above .400 in the past two months, and his FIP/SIERA numbers being 1.5 to 2 runs below his ERA. Combined with a nice 10+ K/9, that’s what my system likes about him. The line drive % is disconcerting, but a .400 BABIP is, as the analysts like to say, ripe for regression.