Please see our player page for Harold Castro to see projections for today, the next 7 days and rest of season as well as stats and gamelogs designed with the fantasy baseball player in mind.

(NOTE: THIS POST WAS RELEASED EARLY THIS WEEK ON OUR PATREON. IT’S $10/MONTH.)

Riley Greene is 21. He was 20 last year. That’s how age works. Next year, he’ll be 22. Guess what he’ll be in two years. Go ahead, I’ll wait. Wrong! 23. *marks test with a D* It’s a passing grade, but I expected more from you. I am passing you because I didn’t want to see you again next year. As a 20-year-old in 124 games at Double and Triple-A, Riley Greene went 24/16/.301 with 25 doubles, eight triples and a 11.5% walk rate and 27.6 K%. That last rate worries me a tad. He was the youngest guy at Double-A, so I’m not writing him off as a guy who can’t make contact, but when a guy with a 27% strikeout rate comes up, here’s what happens:  The strikeout rate balloons to 32%, then people are like, “Damn, I wanted to like Riley but he comes with a .230 average, and I can’t afford that. Maybe some other time!” Then his strikeout rate falls back to 27% and people are like, “That’s better, but he’s still a .250 hitter, and I already have Mark Canha.” Finally, when Riley’s forgotten, his strikeout rate drops to 20%, he hits .285 and people are like, “Wow, where did that come from? He’s breaking out late in his career,” and he’s really only 23 years old. That’s obviously a trend I’ve seen happen more than once. So, he might hit .230 this year. Everything else? Well, kinda beautiful. Five tools gets a bad rap because it’s tossed around with hyperbole, but Riley Greene is five tools without the hyperbole. It’s literal. Riley Greene wears his underwear like a glove because he’s got five tools. On Prospect Itch’s top 100 fantasy baseball prospects, I watched the top 20 or so, and from what I’ve seen, Riley Greene has earned his 6th overall ranking, while also getting short shrift because the guys in front of him are so good. Guess Riley is Greene with envy. *falls down a staircase, sits up* Tah-dah! There’s nothing Riley Greene can’t do. He might’ve broke camp with the Tigers, but he broke a foot instead. Now that he’s healthy, he will be up in a matter of weeks. I’d put the date at June 15th with a plus or minus five days. Also, here’s me talking about Riley Greene on our Youtube channel. Please click that and click subscribe so I can stop asking.

Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Rockies aren’t good at home anymore and it’s so funny. Like, that’s the joke. The Rockies. Excuse me, the Jokies. Is that a thing? It is now! Bud Black is a joke, the entire organization is a joke. From top to bottom, just jokey joke jokes. The Jokies’ owner, Dick Monfort says, “Can’t believe we’ve got Kris Bryant locked up until he’s 37. We are so smart,” as Monfort pushes on a door that says pull. Also, and I know I joke a lot about the Jokies, so I have to tell you this is absolutely true, Dick Monfort appointed one of the majors’ youngest scouting directors. Who is this overachiever? His son! He appointed his son the scouting director. What’s his qualifications? I just told you! He’s his son! Any hoo! Edward Cabrera (6 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, 4 walks, 9 Ks) threw a gem in Coors, in his first start up with the team. The command is pretty worrisome here. In Triple-A, he had a 4.6 BB/9 with a 4.56 ERA. I’m actually surprised he was promoted. The stuff is electric, but he could have some absolute roofies. Outside of NL-Only, I’d be concerned. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

We have every conceivable rookie’s projections who might be called up. Guys I’ve never heard of like Bobson Dugnutt, but even we don’t have Michael Harris II because he was so young and seemingly far away. Michael Harris II is so young Michael Harris I is still in theaters! Andruw Jones played just 50 games above Single A before he was called up by the Braves at age 19 in 1996. Michael Harris II, who is 21, played 43 games above Single A. How’d he go from A to the majors in roughly a month and a half? Hitting, baby! I give a lot of teams shizz for manipulating service time, but the Braves promote guys quickly. Maybe they feel bad after signing them for $500 and a bag of Takis when they’re 12. In 43 Double-A games, Michael Harris II went 5/11 .305/.372/.506 in 174 ABs. His skills are power and speed, which means he’s worth adding in all leagues. Speed doesn’t disappear for a young player after promotion. Power should remain too. The contact is going to make or break his game this year. If he can’t make contact, he might not hit and get demoted. If he can make contact, then he might be on the short list for biggest impact bats to get called up. Here’s what Prospect Itch said, “He’s a must-add where you can fit him. I’m about 60/40 that his swing-happy approach combined with the big-league heavy balls will prove too big a challenge for his first few hundred plate appearances, but stranger things have happened.” This guy sneaking in subconscious Netflix promos! Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

(NOTE: THIS POST WAS RELEASED EARLY THIS WEEK ON OUR PATREON. IT’S $10/MONTH.)

Me and seven guys who I picked up in a Home Depot parking lot are bringing home a life-sized cutout of Grayson Rodriguez in a wheelbarrow. “Cory, please help me get my make-believe son, Gray, uh, son, onto my couch.” Cory and my new Home Depot friends, who I paid with Venmo, manage to lean the 6’5″, 220-pound cutout onto the couch.

Later, me and Cougs are watching The Staircase and between us is my make-believe son, Grayson. “Say hello, Grayson,” I say. I nudge the Grayson cutout with my arm, and it falls over crushing my wife’s foot. At the Urgent Care, I explain to Cougs that Grayson Rodriguez is the best pitcher the Orioles have right now. As a horsey might say, nay, he’s a top five arm in the AL East right now. If he’s healthy, it’s stuff you’re not seeing from many pitchers in the major leagues. Five above-average to plus-plus pitches with control. Through nine starts in Triple-A as the 9th youngest pitcher at the level: His K/9 is 13.7; his BB/9 is 2.9; his FIP is 1.77.

I shush Cougs’s sobs. I ask, “Are you sobbing from your broken foot from my make-believe son cutout falling on you or are you worried about his slider?” Before she can answer, I anticipate and tell her his fastball sits 95 MPH with a plus whiff rate, and his two plus secondaries are his curveball and changeup with whiff rates above 50%. Oh, and by the by, he has a slider and cutter that grade as average or better too. Is this man a hydra? What kind of water do they have in the Rio Grande that they’re giving this Texan? He’s unreal, like an alien. He just needs a nickname to play off Grayson, and being an alien. Oh, I know! Call him Spawn. Grayson’s going to be the best thing you’ve seen since the last future Hall of Famer was promoted. A chip right off the old block that fell on Cougs, that’s my Spawn!

Also, here’s me talking about Grayson Rodriguez (please subscribe to this friggin Youtube channel — click that and click subscribe):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

A sheet attached to a building is covering something in front of the Sears sign on a storefront. The closer we look we see I’m standing on the letter S of Sears. I wave like Forrest Gump. Screaming now, “Okay, when I jump, make sure you film this reveal, because it’s going to be spectacular! …and 1…2…3!” Holding onto the end of the sheet, I jump off the S and Tarzan down the side of the building. Then, the sheet gets to its natural conclusion and, rather than revealing under the sheet the big surprise, it leaves me dangling ten feet off the ground. “Um, a little help.” Cougs puts down the camera and yanks on my feet, and I scream, “Yanks! Perfect!” I fall to the ground, and the sheet covers me, but now it’s revealed that the sheet was covering a spraypainted JP in front of Sears. So, JP Sears (5 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks) had his major league debut. It was vs. the Orioles, so the salt is out to count grains, but he looked fantastic. He has a 93-95 MPH fastball, decent slider and change, and elite command. That’s the JP Sears catalog of pitches. Yanks also have five starters in the rotation, so, with those going out of business sales on Sears, don’t expect refunds. Whether he stays in the rotation or not, he’s someone to keep an eye on, because elite command plays everywhere. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Yusei…

I only hear what I want to. *sob-snorting* I thought what I felt was simple! *mumbling words I don’t know* Turn the MLB dot com on! Yusei is on. *mumbling more words I don’t know* I think that Yusei’s throwing, but I’m thrown. Is Yusei…oh…kay? *mumbling more words I don’t know* You try to give away a keeper, or keep me cause you know you’re just so scared to lose, and Yusei…Stay.

It’s kinda crazy how much Lisa Loeb was singing about Yusei Kikuchi (6 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, 3 walks, 6 Ks, ERA at 3.38) when he was only three years old. Yusei’s command is usually around a 3.5 BB/9, but this year so far it’s 5.6. His Ks are still so far’king good — 9.3 K/9, and his velocity is fine (95 MPH on the speedball), and he seemed like he wasn’t controlling the cutter/slider well early on, and it was forcing him to throw the fastball more. So hitters were sitting dead-red on the chugga-chugga, and it wasn’t working. In his last three starts, things have been better, and Yusei isn’t just a Gen X anthem for lost love angst. Yusei…Stay on my teams. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

(NOTE: THIS POST WAS RELEASED EARLY THIS WEEK ON OUR PATREON. IT’S $10/MONTH OR $13/MONTH WITH AN EXTRA WEEKLY PODCAST.)

Last year, I wrote in my Leody Taveras sleeper post, “You don’t need me to Mr. Shaibel you through the ins and outs of strategy on how to move your pieces around to win your league, but let me just say the quiet part real loud:  SPEED AND POWER MMM YUM. Got it, all you Normies and five Carlas? Leody Taveras is only 22 years old, so his power could be developing into more goodness. He has a 14.3 Launch Angle, which should lead to roughly a 37+% fly ball rate (it was 32.9% last year, but small samples). A 37% fly ball rate should lead to roughly 178 fly balls. Taveras is not built like a brickhouse. He’s built more like a Shed Long. But he has a 50 grade in raw power and who knows? Maybe he runs into 10% HR/FB. That would give him, you guessed it, 18 homers! I’ll be honest, that feels optimistic. Steamer projects him for 13 homers in 133 games, and that feels optimistic too, but pessimistic on his games played. When all things are equal, 13 homers feels like a solid projection, but in more games.” And that’s me quoting me! That just got my pants tent moving north to the Adirondacks for Loedy Taveras in 2022 too. If Siri is reading this to you, we’re not talking about 20222, you didn’t fall asleep for 18,200 years. If you did, your head would be reading this in a jar of formaldehyde. Just had a thought, imagine your head was being preserved in formaldehyde and it was on a shelf behind a bigger head and all you could see was the back of someone else’s head for all of eternity. Writing a note in my Last Will and Testament to not let that happen to me. Any hoo! This is for this year, and Leody has speed and power. He needs to find more contact, but if he can, he could be trouble this year or in 20222. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

If you’re still reading I think it’s safe to assume that you have a playoff spot either locked up or on the line this week. And to that I say congrats. You’ve made it this far, not it’s time to take it home and hoist that championship trophy. So how do you win in the playoffs? Well, you’ve been winning in order to make the playoff in the first place so keep doing what you’ve been doing, it’s clearly working.

Start your studs

You hear this a lot with fantasy football, but it applies here as well. You want your best guys in your lineup. Obviously. But what it really means is don’t get too cute it. Could the guy you just snagged off the wire outscore fantasy god Shohei Ohtani? Yes, it could happen, but the odds are heavily in favor of the Sho.

Max out your starts

Whatever limit your league has on starts, smash it. Otherwise you’re just leaving points on the table. Take advantage of Streamonator to find your plug and play guys. I seriously can’t recommend it enough and it’s been responsible for more than a few of my wins. You can’t replace a true ace but you can approximate their points by rolling out a streaming pitcher every day if your league allows it.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

*throwing cards like in that INXS video* Queller, Stellar, Old Yeller, Bookseller, that kid on ESPN’s Spelling Bee whose name I can’t spell is a good speller, hey, wanna check out my wine cellar, Papa Smurf is a mushroom dweller, love to be a fart smeller, love to be a fart smeller, love to be a fart smeller, wasn’t Winnie Cooper’s real name Danica Something-Keller, if you’re on the east coast you’re riding in an upside down umbreller, Mitch Keller, Mitch Keller, Mitch Keller!

Damn, don’t mess with me when I’m doing an INXS freestyle. So, Mitch Keller went 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks, ERA at *trying not to chuckle* 6.23. His peripherals: 8.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 4.53 FIP. His .373 BABIP is insane, but when you’re in the bottom 2% in the league with exit velocity, and xBA, then you’re going to give up a ton of hits. How’d it go all wrong? Two years ago, he had a 2.76 xERA and now it’s 5.95. The slider and curve used to be a smoke show. Now they’re getting rocked. In 2019, his curve saw a 35.3% strikeout rate with 72.2% ground balls. This year, it’s 12.5% and 36.8%. Um, yikes. Yesterday, he was locating his breaking ball, and that’s the difference. For Mitch Keller to have a great 2022, it’s the same as real estate for the mafia: location, location, location and breaking balls. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?