Rolling In The Deep: More Regrouping

Heading into the All-Star Break last week, instead of our usual search for deep league gems (or at least desperation help), we took a look at some surprising first-half hitter performances. Coming out of the break this week and before we return to our regular deep-league programming, I thought we’d do the same for pitchers. So, as I continue to re-group and prepare for the second (less than) half, here you have it: some thoughts about first-half pitching, based once again on rankings from Razzball’s very own player rater up until this point in the season.

The top two pitchers on the player rater are two young stars representing each league, Jacob Misiorowski and Cam Schlittler. I believe I roster each of these guys exactly one time, so yay for me for drafting each of them, but boo for me for not stocking up on as many shares as I could get my hands on. Which could have been a lot of shares, since Miz’s NFBC ADP was 128, and Schlittler’s was 133. It’s hard to imagine either of them reproducing their first half numbers in the second half, even if we prorate. Partly because it would be almost impossible for any pitcher to continue being that good, and also since one assumes both will be on some type of workload restrictions (and we’ve already presumably seen this with Miz after he was scratched from his start heading into the break). At any rate, congrats to you if you have either or both of these guys leading your team, hopefully to victory.

Zack Wheeler is the third ranked pitcher. This is great for me in the short term, as I have him rostered in a few leagues. I decided to gamble on his health and take a chance on him in both a league or two that drafted early in the offseason, and one or two more even once his price had gone up some, after health reports were generally positive in spring training. (Wheeler’s overall NFBC ADP this year was 134, and it’s pretty interesting to see how incredibly close to each other in ADP these top three guys are. Not sure what it means yet, if anything, but still interesting, IMO). Anyhow, the question is if Wheeler’s success and overall value this year is good for me in the long term. I’ve really backed off drafting injured pitchers even at a huge discount the last couple seasons, and I think for the most part it’s been a positive development to my game. But that being said, I feel like I’ve been dealing with as many pitcher injuries as ever over that time. So, if I’m dealing with all those injuries to the “healthy/non-risk” guys anyway, should I be leaning into the guys who are hurt but hopefully on the mend, so I can try for some extra value? Or is Wheeler’s success going to destroy next year’s teams when I go all-in on this strategy and end up with a roster full of red crosses all season? Or is there gonna be an ugly lockout that lasts so long that we all forget how to play fantasy baseball? Time will tell.

Chase Burns is #6. I faded him completely when I saw his price heading into the season, where he went as high as the #31 overall pick in one of my NFBC leagues. I thought the control issues would keep him from this kind of value, so good work if you did a better job scouting him than I did and bought in this year. Special shout out to whoever got him at his “low pick” in NFBC, which was #261. Now that’s what I call a bargain, my friends. (Note: as I’m turning this post in, I’m reading that the Reds have just signed Burns to a long-term deal. Congrats to young Chase, and perhaps the Reds brass was busy checking the Razzball player rater just like I was over the break!)

Foster Griffin, he of the NFBC overall ADP of 478 and a high pick of 733,  is #8 on the pitcher player rater. Parker Messick (NFBC ADP 309)  is #16. I completely whiffed on both of these guys and don’t think either of them was ever so much in my draft queue even in my 50-round draft & hold leagues, nor my “watch list” in leagues with a free agent pool. I’ll spend some time this offseason trying to figure out why not. I did manage to nab #18 Justin Wrobleski (NFBC ADP 470) in a couple leagues, so yay. And I’ll also shout out Max Meyer (NFBC ADP 357, #13 on the pitcher player rater) here. I got hyped about him late and went on a small Meyer shopping spree towards the end of draft season, thankfully. Looking towards next year and beyond, I think there will be a ton of analysis and chatter about all four of these guys in the second half and over the offseason, when it comes to whether or not each of them is the “real deal.”

Since it’s an often-ugly reality of playing in a 5×5 league and one of the categories driving the player rater, let’s talk for a moment about wins. There is a common theme among the starting pitchers at the top of the rankings; namely, they all are rich in Ws. Every one of the top eight starters has at least nine wins, a reminder of just how valuable they are in standard formats, like it or not. The ninth best starter, and #10 overall on the pitcher rater, is a fellow named Shohei Ohtani, who has eight wins going into the break. While I don’t know exactly how much one or two more wins would have bumped up his ranking, I know it would have made a significant difference even within this rarified air. So, leagues will vary, and the importance of wins to your particular team in your particular league as they relate to standing points will vary. But we can’t deny they help fuel 5×5 value, in a vacuum anyway. Whether we ignore that fact and just hope for luck with the wins category — or actively engage in the often soul-crushing endeavor of attempting to predict a pitcher’s wins — is another discussion entirely.

We closed the hitters post with a blurb about catchers, and we’ll now continue the pitchers post with some chat about closers. In some ways, closers are like the catchers of pitching. Both positions can be very polarizing when it comes to fantasy rankings and perceived value. Also, in both cases the depth of your league can affect said value dramatically. Regardless of your league size, I think the general consensus is that 2026 has been a particularly nightmarish year for closer stability, so let’s take a quick deeper look at the numbers:

There are six closers ranked in the top 25 when it comes to overall pitcher rankings on the player rater: #4 Mason Miller, #11 Louis Varland, #12 Cade Smith, #19 Jacob Latz, #22 Bryan Baker, and #25 Jhoan Duran. So this is an interesting list, I think, with top picks Miller, Smith, and Duran interspersed with several waiver wire closers. (I remember being pretty shocked with how early Smith in particular went in my first few NFBC drafts, but the folks that invested early are sitting pretty in the saves department right about now). This list really confirms my frustration with closers this year. I like to think of myself as pretty adept at finding them on the wire during the season, as well as rostering them in draft and hold leagues even when they are third or fourth on their team’s closer depth chart, if that, heading into the season. But while I did nab Varland on a couple D&H teams, I somehow don’t roster Latz or Baker in a single league. Really steaming about that, and will try to use it to help my fantasy closer scouting in the future, I guess.

Coming back to the closer/catcher comparison, there were, in my opinion, a surprising number of each high up in the rankings, and within that group an almost 50/50 split of expensive draft picks and waiver wire freebies. So, I will now quote myself from last week, but replace the word “catcher” with “closer”:  “Does this information mean we should draft a stud closer early, and hope we pick the right one? Or does it suggest that we should wait, and hope we pick the right one? Something I’ll probably be pondering more than I care to admit this offseason.”

Okay, that’s it for this week as we ease our way back into MLB action. It’s been fun to mix things up a bit, since I’m pretty sure this is the last time I’ll have mentioned and tagged Ohtani in my normally deep-league column ; ) Hope everyone enjoyed the break, and best of luck as we embark on the back half of the season!