The fantasy baseball season has officially kicked off and we have real, live draft data to sift through.  Numbers nerds, assemble! We have spreadsheets, charts and ADP, oh my! It was a busy first week here at Razzball Commenter Leagues HQ but I’ve gone through each league that has drafted and added their drafts to a master spreadsheet in order to calculate RCL ADP.  We’ve had eighteen leagues draft already, so there’s plenty of numbers to look at. We’ve had some close calls, but all leagues have filled so far and we’d love to keep it that way. We don’t want to axe any leagues, so if you notice your league is not full the day before the draft, hit us up on Twitter: @Razzball or @MattTruss and let us know.  You can also leave a comment in Grey’s most recent post and/or invite a friend to join. I know, sacrilege to tell your fantasy baseball friends you read Razzball, but sharing is caring. Speaking of sharing, jump below and I’ll share with you a fancy RCL ADP spreadsheet for your perusing pleasure.

DRAFT TRENDS

We’ve got eighteen leagues worth of draft data to peek at. Being first to draft means first to be criticized, so we’ll dive into the numbers and see what’s going on in the early draft season.

THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2018 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT IS…

Mike Trout ^17…wait…17?  Yup, it looks like someone couldn’t wait to get their hands on Mookie Ballgame and took him first overall.  These two are the consensus top 2 picks and I’ve seen Mookie go #1 a couple times in various drafts so far. Where things really get interesting is the third pick.  So far we have Jose Ramirez leading the charge with 11 leagues, the remaining 8 are split up with three Christian Yelich, two Bryce Harper, a Trea Turner and a Ronald Acuna.  This makes me wish I had done more early drafts.  Bryce Harper was going in the early second round before signing with Philly, now we’re seeing that price soar.

WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP

We’ve got RCL ADP!  Here’s a list from our eighteen league sample of some guys I’m lusting for this year and some general notes.  If there’s an ADP you’re curious about for my next update, fire away and I’ll add them to the chart next time out.  This time around I decided to look at some of the kids everyone is excited to draft as well as some soon to be AARP members.

PLAYER ADP HI LO DIFF
Acuna Jr., Ronald 7.94 3 12 9
Soto, Juan 28.83 17 41 24
Mondesi, Adalberto 32.83 22 46 24
Buehler, Walker 40.83 32 49 17
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 47.22 37 57 20
Robles, Victor 88.33 51 125 74
Jimenez, Eloy 100.56 78 116 38
Lucchesi, Joey 155.56 100 216 116
Kikuchi, Yusei 179.67 135 209 74

Ronald Acuna  falling to twelve is a travesty.  I am ridiculously jealous of whoever landed Acuna there.

Sexy Doctor Pepper has been sneaking into some second rounds, I think I’m a little risk-averse, but I’d be all over him in the third with a solid floor pick at one and two.

Adalberto Mondesi isn’t quite going as high as Grey has him ranked but he’s not falling past the fourth round either.

Oh, I wish I had more leagues drafted so far and I am very curious to see where Vlad levels off to now that the injury news has come out.  Acuna was drafted around pick 78 last season, and that seems to be about where I would rank Vlad this year, not the 30 spots higher he’s going early on.

Robles has been all over the map with a 74 pick spread.  If you have a need for speed and didn’t nab Trea Turner, Robles is a nice 7th round consolation.

Speaking of all over the map, Joey Lucchesi has a 116 pick spread.  I guess if your draft is really avoiding starters, but boy, 216 is pretty crazy.

I’m definitely eyeballing Kikuchi at his current price and especially if I miss out on Lucchesi.

Now, out with new, in with the old:

PLAYER ADP HI LO DIFF
Verlander, Justin 26.44 19 38 19
Votto, Joey 61.72 39 96 57
Greinke, Zack 71.94 60 99 39
Kershaw, Clayton 76.5 36 167 131
Cruz, Nelson 92.33 52 126 74
Donaldson, Josh 97.61 78 113 35
Price, David 97.94 70 118 48
Encarnacion, Edwin 112.33 85 151 66
Cano, Robinson 122.11 79 151 72
Happ, J.A. 123.28 99 149 50
McCutchen, Andrew 137.28 96 166 70
Cabrera, Miguel 176.28 138 208 70

Is this the season Verlander finally gives in to father time?  I’m avoiding and hoping so.

Since I have been the keeper of RCL data the past few seasons I have the historical ADP data.  It’s always nice to check back on last year and see where some of these guys were being drafted, compare it to this year and see if the rise/drop is warranted.

For instance, Joey Votto was drafted 19th overall last year.  That didn’t return value and now he’s being corrected.

Clayton Kershaw is dropping like a rock, from 10th overall last year to 76th this year, that’s a huge fall.  Of course, this could be a lost regular season for Kershaw if he’s hurt and/or the Dodgers baby him all year until the playoffs.  I’m not looking his way at all, but for the price, I could see it.

I’ve called for Nelson Cruz to fail every year for the past 5 seasons it seems like.  I’m done, he’s a lock for 30+ bombs and I’ve been scooping him up here and there. Now, of course, I’ve given him the kiss of death.

Josh Donaldson was the 31st player off the board last year in a lost season.  This year you can scoop up the former MVP at pick 97. In a stacked Braves lineup, I’ve been throwing him some glances but haven’t pulled the trigger yet.

J.A. Happ is a curious case, drafted 266th last year he’s now being taken at pick 123 following a late breakout season.  Are you buying?

McCutchen is interesting to me, he was drafted 91st overall last year and I expected that to get a bump this year being in Philly, however, his ADP has actually dropped to 137.  I don’t think the one year older trumps the better ballpark and lineup here. I hope to land some McCutchen shares as the drafts go on.

RCL ADP SHEET

If you made it this far, you earn a reward.  I told you I was a numbers nerd. Now you can take a look at any player you want as more and more data is collected.  I’ll be keeping that sheet up to date as I collect draft data, so bookmark it and check back often. Speaking of RCL drafts, we still need a couple high rollers for our $100 legacy leagues, Cougs R Us and Night of the Living Zombinos.  We’re also looking for a few good managers to jump in our Original Recipe RCL. That league is the longest running RCL we have. Go ahead and shoot me an email: [email protected] if you’re interested in any of those. Also, head to the spreadsheet and sign up for any number of leagues you wish!

TO JOIN A LEAGUE

Click the LINK in the ‘League Link’ column (see below grid) for the time you want and YOU’RE IN.  Damn, that’s too easy.  Oh, I guess I should also mention make sure you’re joining a league for free or for money, depending on your preference.  If you want a league for money, then 1) Click the link. 2) Pay the money.  That’s it!  No pesky third requirement!  Again, Fantrax and Razzball take no money.  You can join as many free or paid leagues as you like.  To quit a league, go to OTHER –> All Options –> Quit League (located at the bottom).  Now go join some leagues!

Want to be my Twitter pal?  That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow me here: @MattTruss

  1. hot corner says:
    (link)

    Thanks Matt. This is great. Quick question. I am in your league that drafts next Friday. When I go the league site, it lists the draft order. Is that order set or will it change over the next week? Just want to know how to prep.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      No problem, hope it’s handy!

      That is the draft order…UNLESS someone leaves the league and a new person joins, then it will re-randomize.

      • hot corner says:
        (link)

        All good. #12 it is. Something tells me that Acuna is not falling again.

  2. MattH says:
    (link)

    Nice write-up, Matt. This RCL ADP sheet is pretty handy. Thank-you.

    Jose Peraza looks like good value. Also, you can be jealous of me as I got Acuna at the 12 spot. Is it possible people are leaving the leagues and coming back to get better draft position?

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      LUCKY!

      Maybe, I haven’t noticed that at all. But, all it would take is someone else doing the same thing and then you’d have lost your “good spot”. Also, you’d run the risk of losing your spot I guess. We’ll have to keep an eye out for that being an issue…

      • MattH says:
        (link)

        Ha, good point. I just noticed leagues dropping from 12 to 11 multiple times, but there’s no history of who joined or dropped out. No worries. You got Acuna 9th in the writers league. That’s pretty sweet.

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
          (link)

          Agreed, I’ve been nabbing him everywhere. Had to pass and take Trea Turner in Crab Army the other night, just to diversify a little bit. That was at pick 6.

          • Joe Shmoe says:
            (link)

            An issue? Yes.Before the draft people drop and jump in and change draft order. I am not sure this is cool. Doesn’t feel right to have to change your mindset. Its all good, I suppose.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Acuna at 12? That’s silly

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        Crummy with crackers!

      • MattH says:
        (link)

        Silly awesome.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          A bit ridiculous!

  3. Joe Shmoe says:
    (link)

    RCL#24 drafts tomorrow morning @10AM… Need one more!

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      Looks full from my house!

  4. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Truss $20 RCL number 65 is listed as full but we had someone drop out last week. Can you fix?

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      Fixed! Thanks for mentioning, it’s hard to keep track of all the movement!

  5. Joe Shmoe says:
    (link)

    Which player has a higher value?
    Runs HR RBI SB OBP SLG
    A 100 20 73 37 .355 .461
    B 92 35 101 19 .341 .534

    I’m not sure why A is higher ranked than B?

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      I guess it depends on if you value SBs more than HRs…or if one has any upside baked into their ranking, or vice versa with injury risk/downside. But yea, in a vacuum it looks like B should be higher.

      • hot corner says:
        (link)

        Just eyeballing the numbers, that looks like Trea Turner vs Trevor Story. If so, there is considerable upside to Turner’s 37 SB’s and I think that is Story’s ceiling. Also, it is easier to make up the 15 HR’s throughout the draft than it is the 18 SB’s.

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
          (link)

          Right, that eliminates batting average as well, which Trea has a much higher ceiling with than Story. We’ve seen Story’s AVG floor, and it ain’t pretty.

  6. Joe Shmoe says:
    (link)

    RCL#24 drafts today @10AM… Need one more!

  7. Miles says:
    (link)

    thanks for posting this. in preparation for my RCL draft I’m a little tired of looking at NFBC.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      No problem!

  8. Miles says:
    (link)

    do you have any idea about how fantrax does draft order? my draft is next week. there is a posted draft order. from what I’ve noticed, it changes when teams add or leave… if I’m listed at #6 now, and the manager list stays the same, will I be #6? or will it randomize again

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      See above

      • Miles says:
        (link)

        awesome

  9. Amphibious Rodents says:
    (link)

    Cougs R Us draft Monday, 18th at 8:30 p.m. EDT. Need one more.

    • Amphibious Rodents says:
      (link)

      $100 entry, oughta mention (600, 400, 200 payouts)

  10. Tweak says:
    (link)

    My first RCL of the year drafted last night and I was pretty happy to get pick #2. If not one of the first two picks, I’d rather be later in the draft.

    Snagged Betts at 2 and was happy to get Freeman/Bryant with my next 2 picks.

    Albies at #42, D. Murphy at #74, Piscotty at #146 and Bader at #167 all felt pretty good.

    I’ll be interested to see how the rotation plays out since I usually have a few necessary target arms, but just rolled with it this year:

    Jack Flaherty, Chris Archer, Jon Gray, Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, Domingo German, Marcus Stroman

    • The Great Knoche says:
      (link)

      Flaherty is a stud, and you’ve got some great K guys, but hopefully your relief team is full of ratio helpers.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *