I really didn’t understand the whole Bo Bichette is greater than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. movement that took place this draft season. That’s not a knock on Bichette by any means, but instead an affirmation that Vlad is a very special player that came into this league as the highly touted number one prospect ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr, Eloy Jimenez, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. While it does seem like Bo had a smoother transition into the big leagues, anyone that thought Vlad wasn’t going to find his groove likely made a bad decision (or three) along the way. A few years ago there were many preaching that Guerrero Jr. was going to become the best player in the game. Well the hype train has just arrived at the station as he currently leads all hitters in fantasy points. I know Ronald Acuna Jr. has been lighting the roto world on fire, but he still has less points than Vlad. By the way, what’s the deal with there being so many top tier hitters with a Jr. at the end of their name? I wonder if I should change my name to malamoney Jr.
Two weeks ago I gave you my top 99 hitters list. I said at the time that it would be a work in progress. Today I give you my updated rankings. Still a work in progress. These rankings are based on a formula which incorporates year-to-date performance, preseason projections and previous rankings.
Rank | Name | FPTS | PPPA | Total | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ronald Acuna | 172 | 0.94 | 594.83 | 0 |
2 | Vladimir Guerrero | 182 | 0.95 | 592.30 | +2 |
3 | Jose Ramirez | 150 | 0.85 | 544.81 | 0 |
4 | Freddie Freeman | 147 | 0.74 | 520.66 | +7 |
5 | Juan Soto | 96 | 0.71 | 511.25 | 0 |
6 | J.D. Martinez | 162 | 0.82 | 510.44 | +1 |
7 | Xander Bogaerts | 150 | 0.79 | 499.10 | +1 |
8 | Whit Merrifield | 142 | 0.74 | 497.59 | -2 |
9 | Trea Turner | 127 | 0.69 | 492.69 | +3 |
10 | Nolan Arenado | 139 | 0.73 | 485.50 | +8 |
11 | Nick Castellanos | 143 | 0.82 | 482.36 | -1 |
12 | Yuli Gurriel | 150 | 0.80 | 480.91 | +8 |
13 | Fernando Tatis | 110 | 0.91 | 469.82 | +9 |
14 | Marcus Semien | 135 | 0.69 | 465.94 | +15 |
15 | Mookie Betts | 119 | 0.65 | 463.45 | -2 |
16 | Jesse Winker | 140 | 0.85 | 455.67 | +19 |
17 | Kris Bryant | 137 | 0.78 | 455.43 | -2 |
18 | Rafael Devers | 135 | 0.72 | 453.42 | +7 |
19 | Mike Trout | 111 | 0.76 | 447.91 | -17 |
20 | Carlos Santana | 140 | 0.74 | 444.90 | -1 |
21 | Kyle Tucker | 132 | 0.72 | 444.12 | +46 |
22 | Anthony Rizzo | 122 | 0.67 | 444.07 | +8 |
23 | Max Muncy | 136 | 0.74 | 443.90 | +18 |
24 | Mark Canha | 138 | 0.68 | 440.13 | +8 |
25 | Yordan Alvarez | 107 | 0.65 | 439.14 | -9 |
26 | Alex Bregman | 116 | 0.67 | 437.63 | +1 |
27 | Bo Bichette | 121 | 0.62 | 434.47 | +4 |
28 | Ozzie Albies | 126 | 0.67 | 434.15 | +5 |
29 | Bryce Harper | 97 | 0.60 | 430.92 | -20 |
30 | Manny Machado | 115 | 0.62 | 429.41 | +4 |
31 | Shohei Ohtani | 138 | 0.76 | 420.57 | -14 |
32 | Trey Mancini | 131 | 0.69 | 420.23 | +30 |
33 | Alex Verdugo | 127 | 0.70 | 418.07 | -10 |
34 | Mitch Haniger | 133 | 0.70 | 417.76 | +8 |
35 | Byron Buxton | 99 | 1.01 | 398.59 | -14 |
36 | Matt Olson | 119 | 0.70 | 394.52 | +27 |
37 | Nelson Cruz | 111 | 0.69 | 393.74 | -13 |
38 | Jake Cronenworth | 127 | 0.65 | 393.56 | +49 |
39 | Trevor Story | 100 | 0.53 | 389.52 | -25 |
40 | Jose Abreu | 102 | 0.60 | 389.35 | +14 |
41 | Ramon Laureano | 119 | 0.65 | 389.13 | +10 |
42 | Adam Frazier | 119 | 0.60 | 387.82 | +13 |
43 | Jesus Aguilar | 115 | 0.67 | 383.81 | -7 |
44 | Tommy Edman | 115 | 0.57 | 383.48 | +14 |
45 | Jose Altuve | 108 | 0.65 | 382.02 | +41 |
46 | Aaron Judge | 113 | 0.64 | 381.07 | +55 |
47 | Yermin Mercedes | 103 | 0.66 | 379.23 | +1 |
48 | Corey Seager | 96 | 0.57 | 377.90 | -20 |
49 | Chris Taylor | 119 | 0.71 | 377.89 | +8 |
50 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 124 | 0.61 | 376.46 | +2 |
51 | Carlos Correa | 111 | 0.59 | 376.05 | +24 |
52 | Robbie Grossman | 117 | 0.61 | 376.04 | +22 |
53 | Ryan McMahon | 122 | 0.66 | 375.86 | +12 |
54 | David Peralta | 116 | 0.65 | 375.54 | -11 |
55 | Jared Walsh | 116 | 0.66 | 375.00 | -16 |
56 | DJ LeMahieu | 96 | 0.49 | 374.51 | -18 |
57 | Miguel Rojas | 111 | 0.64 | 374.23 | -17 |
58 | Justin Turner | 104 | 0.57 | 374.20 | -32 |
59 | Franmil Reyes | 102 | 0.65 | 374.02 | -22 |
60 | Eduardo Escobar | 111 | 0.58 | 373.67 | -1 |
61 | Raimel Tapia | 114 | 0.64 | 372.87 | -11 |
62 | Randy Arozarena | 111 | 0.58 | 372.45 | +52 |
63 | Michael Brantley | 103 | 0.59 | 370.40 | -10 |
64 | Kyle Seager | 102 | 0.54 | 367.12 | -8 |
65 | Rhys Hoskins | 100 | 0.52 | 365.84 | +6 |
66 | Francisco Lindor | 75 | 0.45 | 363.97 | -6 |
67 | Austin Meadows | 108 | 0.59 | 359.56 | +9 |
68 | Paul Goldschmidt | 93 | 0.50 | 353.17 | +1 |
69 | Eric Hosmer | 97 | 0.61 | 348.25 | -20 |
70 | Trent Grisham | 96 | 0.62 | 347.63 | +14 |
71 | Randal Grichuk | 104 | 0.59 | 347.59 | -24 |
72 | Max Kepler | 91 | 0.66 | 347.42 | +18 |
73 | Pete Alonso | 75 | 0.50 | 346.37 | -27 |
74 | Charlie Blackmon | 89 | 0.56 | 346.18 | -10 |
75 | Brandon Crawford | 110 | 0.77 | 346.14 | +19 |
76 | Bryan Reynolds | 100 | 0.55 | 342.15 | -3 |
77 | Marcell Ozuna | 82 | 0.41 | 338.21 | +6 |
78 | Nick Solak | 102 | 0.50 | 337.14 | -1 |
79 | Joey Wendle | 110 | 0.71 | 334.96 | +25 |
80 | Nick Madrigal | 91 | 0.60 | 334.65 | -12 |
81 | Tim Anderson | 86 | 0.57 | 334.63 | +1 |
82 | Cedric Mullins | 111 | 0.57 | 330.26 | -10 |
83 | Eddie Rosario | 77 | 0.47 | 328.20 | -39 |
84 | Will Smith | 99 | 0.71 | 327.83 | +7 |
85 | Salvador Perez | 92 | 0.51 | 325.41 | 0 |
86 | Andrew McCutchen | 89 | 0.49 | 324.17 | +19 |
87 | Javier Baez | 86 | 0.54 | 321.92 | -8 |
88 | Dylan Carlson | 91 | 0.51 | 319.60 | -8 |
89 | Yoan Moncada | 87 | 0.48 | 319.36 | +27 |
90 | Buster Posey | 101 | 0.83 | 319.17 | -20 |
91 | Giancarlo Stanton | 84 | 0.58 | 317.89 | -46 |
92 | Jeff McNeil | 63 | 0.56 | 314.17 | -31 |
93 | Austin Riley | 94 | 0.53 | 312.87 | +43 |
94 | Garrett Hampson | 102 | 0.59 | 311.69 | +6 |
95 | Jorge Polanco | 81 | 0.48 | 306.41 | +1 |
96 | Josh Donaldson | 79 | 0.59 | 303.92 | +7 |
97 | Nate Lowe | 100 | 0.49 | 303.80 | -19 |
98 | Cesar Hernandez | 80 | 0.43 | 303.71 | +22 |
99 | J.T. Realmuto | 79 | 0.61 | 303.38 | -33 |
Ronald Acuna remains at the top spot, but Vlad is literally nipping at his heels. If he continues playing as he is, he will overtake the Acuna. That speaks volumes considering how well Acuna has been playing. Guerrero (182 points) actually leads all hitters in points and has a slightly better points per plate appearance (PPPA) than RAJr. The only hitter with a better PPPA is Byron Buxton, but he has about 100 less plate appearances. VG doesn’t stand for “very good”, it stands for Vladimir Guerrero is freaking awesome and I couldn’t be happier that I’ve held onto him since 2016 despite many enticing trade offers. VG also stands for Very Green which is my favorite Double IPA (or any beer).
Freddie Freeman has jumped up seven spots to number four. FF is a perfect example of what I always say about points being points in points leagues and it doesn’t matter how a player gets them. Freeman is batting .241 (at the time I wrote this), yet his 147 points have him in the top ten for most points amongst hitters. Batting average and other stats be damned as long as the points are piling up. Don’t be surprised to see Freddie reaching the top three sooner rather than later.
Let’s check out a few other risers on the list.
Climbing up fifteen spots to number 14 is Marcus Semien. Only Xander Bogaerts has more points than him at shortstop and he is doing as much with each plate appearance as Trea Turner. Despite being ranked 14th amongst hitters he is the number four shortstop behind Bogaerts, Turner and Tatis. That’s a lot of SS near the top of the list. However, given his ADP of about 97, Semien is clearly the most valuable fantasy player of the bunch at the moment.
Jesse Winker has moved 19 spots to get inside the top twenty (#16). Hitting three home runs in a game will certainly boost your ranking. So does a .353 batting average. The higher the batting average, the more times you’re getting on base which equates to more point opportunities.
One of the biggest risers is Kyle Tucker who has moved 46 spots to number 21, or the blackjack spot as I sometimes call it. In the past three weeks KT has averaged 24 points a week. That will certainly move the needle.
Trey Mancini see a thirty-two rank jump almost getting inside the top 30. That’s what happens when you score 111 points in four weeks.
In the first edition of these rankings Aaron Judge fell outside the top 99 despite his jersey number. He actually made the largest leap up to 46, moving 55 spots. See what a 45-point week can do for your points league rankings.
More Risers:
Jake Cronenworth: 37 (+49)
Jose Abreu: 40 (+14)
Adam Frazier: 42 (+13)
Tommy Edman: 44 (+14)
Jose Altuve: 45 (+41)
Carlos Correa: 51 (+24)
Robbie Grossman: 52 (+22)
Ryan McMahon: 53 (+12)
Randy Arozarena: 62 (+52)
Trent Grisham: 70 (+14)
Max Kepler: 72 (+18)
Brandon Crawford: 75 (+19)
Joey Wendle: 79 (+25)
Andrew McCutchen: 86 (+19)
Yoan Moncada: 89 (+27)
Austin Riley: 93 (+43)
Cesar Hernandez: 98 (+22)
Here are some fallers:
Mike Trout dropped 17 spots simply because he is expected to be 6-8 weeks. These rankings are based on end of the season expected point totals. Obviously once Trout returns he will be a top player, but for now he’s got to be moved down. But this points out a hole in the rankings formula. Moving forward I will factor in rest of season points as that seems like a more useful number. Technically that number already exists in the table above. All you have to do is subtract the “FPTS” column from “Total”.
For shifts and giggles I have gone ahead and done that. Here are the top forty. Juan Soto moves into the number two spot. There are plenty of other moves, but I’m not going to dive into them today. So I think in the next rankings we will have YTD (current) and ROS (future) rankings.
Rank | Name | FPTS | PPPA | Total | ROS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ronald Acuna | 172 | 0.94 | 594.83 | 423 |
2 | Juan Soto | 96 | 0.71 | 511.25 | 415 |
3 | Vladimir Guerrero | 182 | 0.95 | 592.30 | 410 |
4 | Jose Ramirez | 150 | 0.85 | 544.81 | 395 |
5 | Freddie Freeman | 147 | 0.74 | 520.66 | 374 |
6 | Trea Turner | 127 | 0.69 | 492.69 | 366 |
7 | Fernando Tatis | 110 | 0.91 | 469.82 | 360 |
8 | Whit Merrifield | 142 | 0.74 | 497.59 | 356 |
9 | Xander Bogaerts | 150 | 0.79 | 499.10 | 349 |
10 | J.D. Martinez | 162 | 0.82 | 510.44 | 348 |
11 | Nolan Arenado | 139 | 0.73 | 485.50 | 347 |
12 | Mookie Betts | 119 | 0.65 | 463.45 | 344 |
13 | Nick Castellanos | 143 | 0.82 | 482.36 | 339 |
14 | Mike Trout | 111 | 0.76 | 447.91 | 337 |
15 | Bryce Harper | 97 | 0.60 | 430.92 | 334 |
16 | Yordan Alvarez | 107 | 0.65 | 439.14 | 332 |
17 | Marcus Semien | 135 | 0.69 | 465.94 | 331 |
18 | Yuli Gurriel | 150 | 0.80 | 480.91 | 331 |
19 | Anthony Rizzo | 122 | 0.67 | 444.07 | 322 |
20 | Alex Bregman | 116 | 0.67 | 437.63 | 322 |
21 | Kris Bryant | 137 | 0.78 | 455.43 | 318 |
22 | Rafael Devers | 135 | 0.72 | 453.42 | 318 |
23 | Jesse Winker | 140 | 0.85 | 455.67 | 316 |
24 | Manny Machado | 115 | 0.62 | 429.41 | 314 |
25 | Bo Bichette | 121 | 0.62 | 434.47 | 313 |
26 | Kyle Tucker | 132 | 0.72 | 444.12 | 312 |
27 | Ozzie Albies | 126 | 0.67 | 434.15 | 308 |
28 | Max Muncy | 136 | 0.74 | 443.90 | 308 |
29 | Carlos Santana | 140 | 0.74 | 444.90 | 305 |
30 | Mark Canha | 138 | 0.68 | 440.13 | 302 |
31 | Byron Buxton | 99 | 1.01 | 398.59 | 300 |
32 | Alex Verdugo | 127 | 0.70 | 418.07 | 291 |
33 | Trevor Story | 100 | 0.53 | 389.52 | 290 |
34 | Trey Mancini | 131 | 0.69 | 420.23 | 289 |
35 | Francisco Lindor | 75 | 0.45 | 363.97 | 289 |
36 | Jose Abreu | 102 | 0.60 | 389.35 | 287 |
37 | Mitch Haniger | 133 | 0.70 | 417.76 | 285 |
38 | Nelson Cruz | 111 | 0.69 | 393.74 | 283 |
39 | Shohei Ohtani | 138 | 0.76 | 420.57 | 283 |
40 | Corey Seager | 96 | 0.57 | 377.90 | 282 |
41 | DJ LeMahieu | 96 | 0.49 | 374.51 | 279 |
More fallers:
Bryce Harper: 29 (-20)
Byron Buxton: 35 (-14)
Trevor Story: 39 (-25)
Corey Seager: 48 (-20)
Jared Walsh: 55 (-16)
DJ LeMahieu: 56 (-18)
Miguel Rojas: 57 (-17)
Justin Turner: 58 (-32)
Franmil Reyes: 59 (-22)
Eric Hosmer: 69 (-20)
Randal Grichuk: 71 (-24)
Pete Alonso: 73 (-27)
Eddie Rosario: 84 (-39)
Buster Posey: 90 (-20)
Giancarlo Stanton: 91 (-46)
Jeff McNeil: 92 (-31)
Nate Lowe: 97 (-19)
JT Realmuto: 99 (-33)
The reason some players have fallen more than you might expect is a combination of both the player regressing from the last rankings and other players improving and jumping up the list. I guess the same can be said for some of the big risers. It’s also the result of my formula being a slow work in progress as it eventually morphs into a well-oiled machine capable of pinpointing a player’s ranking.
Follow malamoney on Twitter at @malamoney