Points League: Surprise Party

How common are surprise parties? Growing up, TV and movies made it seem like they were happening constantly, even though they almost never went well. In my lived experience, they are few and far between. Like with the threats of quicksand and amnesia, did the media I consumed as a youth lie to me? Or do I just not have many friends? You know what, don’t answer that.

Now that we are a month into the season, I thought it would be worth taking a look at some of the early season surprises, for better or worse, at each position. This article will be of a type with RotoSurgeon’s excellent Fact or Fiction piece that was published yesterday, but with a points league slant. Also, while he focused on guys who have gotten off to good starts, we’re also going to look at the party poopers who have been serving as the buzzkills to your plans of domination.

Catcher

Life of the Party: Liam Hicks

The Marlins’ backstop has cooled down from his blazing fast start, but he’s still solidly in the top-5 at the position. Based on his underlying metrics, he’s earned what he’s done so far. But how has he done it? So far this season, he’s hitting the ball on the ground less, pulling it in the air more, and striking out half as often compared to last season. That’s good. He’s also walking half as often, which is less good.

If he keeps making contact the way he has, he could have more staying power than anyone saw coming. At the same time, I still can’t envision having him ranked in the top 12 at C. Consider it a combination of skepticism about someone who was entirely off the radar not that long ago, and a testimony to how strong catcher currently is.

Party Pooper: Salvador Perez

Perez has been a stalwart at the position for a long time. It feels foolish to write him off after a bad month. He’s had those before, and the Royals’ bats on the whole have been lackluster, to say the least. However, Salvy is about to turn 36. Not only that, but the Royals have ridden him hard over the years. So while his track record says it’s surprising that he’s been this bad, the history of catchers says it probably shouldn’t be. I’m not telling you to cut him. I am saying he may not bring much joy to the party this season.

First Base

Life of the Party: Munetaka Murakami, CHW

The questions about Murakami as he made the move from Japan centered around his ability to make contact. So far, that has proven well-founded, as he is in the 1% for Whiff% and the 6% for K%. The reason he’s been able to be so productive so far is that the power has likewise been as advertised, and for as much as he strikes out, he also walks a lot. His 18.6% walk rate puts him in the top 96% of baseball. Apparently, Munetaka Murakami is Japanese for “Joey Gallo.” If that sounds like faint praise because all you remember are the last few truly awful seasons Gallo put up, it’s not. In his prime, Gallo was a must-start hitter, even with his mounds of Ks. Time will tell if Murakami can be that sort of unicorn who can produce while so rarely making contact with the ball, but so far, so good.

Party Poopers: Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, Vinnie Pasquantino

It isn’t a surprise that any one of these guys has been disappointing to this point. Alonso is changing teams and leagues, and that often comes with an adjustment period. Naylor was never going to steal 30 bags again, and has had dry spells before. And Vinnie had a strong season last year, but it was his first one. All of them should be better than they have been going forward, but they also might not reach the heights their draft position promised.

Second Base

Life of the Party: Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez

If we were talking about roto leagues with middle infield spots, these guys being useful wouldn’t be particularly surprising. Being top-5 options, though? That’s a surprise. That said, while I don’t expect them to stay at that level all season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they remain starting-caliber. What’s gotten into the water in Miami?

Party Pooper: Jazz Chisolm Jr.

Remember before the season when Jazz said he wanted to go 50-50 this season? He does have 9 SB so far, but still, I don’t think he’s going to quite get there. If you have him, you know he has been hitting all the wrong notes so far. I can’t imagine that he just completely forgot how to play baseball over the winter, so he should find his groove again. Hopefully it’s sooner rather than later.

Third Base

Life of the Party: Sal Stewart, Kevin McGonigle

These two were fairly popular picks to win Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues. To that end, it’s hard to say that they’ve been entirely surprising. But being top-3 at the position a month into the season? Yeah, that’s a surprise. I don’t really have anything to say about them that other people haven’t covered in other places. They’ve been awesome. I wish I had them on more teams. Or any, in McGonigle’s case.

Party Pooper: Alec Bohm

No one drafted Bohm expecting him to be a high-end option. Points leagues, though, have been his better format in the past due to his propensity for doubles. This year, he’s been terrible everywhere. His chase, whiff, and K rates all look excellent. His squared-up% is in the 96th percentile. And yet he’s hitting an anemic .143 with a .218 OBP. That is rough. Maybe he gets back to being someone you can consider at some point, but if you do happen to still have him on your roster, don’t feel obligated to keep it that way.

Shortstop

Life of the Party: Dansby Swanson

Swanson finds himself in the top-5 of shortstops partly due to the fact that a lot of guys who you’d expect to be better than him have missed time due to injury. Others are Bo Bichette, who could easily be considered a Party Pooper here or at third base. He’s been terrible. Dansby, though, has been good! Nothing in his profile stands out as particularly excellent, he’s just solid. That’s who and what he is when he’s healthy. There will be regression, but he should be steady.

Party Pooper: Bobby Witt Jr.

Bichette has been worse, but Witt was drafted in the top half of round 1. Of everyone in this category so far, Witt is the one I’m least concerned about. The fact that he only has 1 HR so far (hit on Sunday) is disappointing, for sure. Yes, he’s only scored 7 runs so far. That’s not his fault, though. He’s hitting .299 with a .374 OBP, and everything under the hood looks good. It’s just bad luck, like rain on your wedding day. If you’ve got Witt, take a deep breath and trust that things are bound to turn around. His teammates will start hitting eventually.

Outfield

Life of the Party: Mike Trout, Oneil Cruz

Trout’s batting average is the same as it was when he disappointed last season, but everything else you want to see is up across the board. Perhaps most significantly for points league purposes, his K% is back in the neighborhood of where it was in his prime. That may not hold, and of course the fear of injury is ever-present, but the tank isn’t empty yet.

Cruz has, without question, been my biggest whiff of the season to date. He’s come out guns blazing, with 8 HR, 10 SB and a top-10 showing in the OF through the first month. His Barrell% and Hard-Hit% have been elite to this point. The man has incredible physical tools, to be sure. And yet I still have real difficulty buying it.

Believe me, I don’t want to be a hater. I love when guys with crazy tools do crazy things. I just struggle to get past the fact that only two qualified hitters in all of baseball have a Whiff% worse than Cruz’s. Only three have a worse K%. He’s actually striking out even more and walking even less than he did last year, when he finished outside the top-60 in ESPN’s scoring. And yet he’s 7th in that format so far this season! That doesn’t make any sense!

If you ignored me and drafted Cruz this spring, absolutely, go ahead and do a victory dance. It would be incredibly fun to see such a wild profile have huge success for the full season. It would be a surprise, for sure.

Party Pooper: Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr.

If you wanted to include Kyle Tucker, Julio Rodriguez, Byron Buxton, and Roman Anthony, I get it. Outfield has had more than its share of studs playing like duds so far this season. These two, though, have arguably been the most frustrating and surprising. Tucker’s on a new team, Julio always starts slow, no one expected a repeat of last year for Buxton, and sophomore slumps aren’t common. The Juniors, though? You were expecting elite production, and instead, they’ve produced a combined 2 HR. It hasn’t been fun so far. But looking under the hood and at their track records, you have to be patient and assume they’ll get things kicked off soon.