Week 5 Fantasy Baseball Fact Or Fiction

This is a big week for fantasy baseball. There have been multiple impact call-ups between Sam Antonacci, Noah Schultz, J.R. Ritchie, Payton Tolle, and Connor Prielipp. Sifting through these players, along with several of the hot starters/recent streaks this season is difficult.

I am always an advocate of striking while the iron is hot on prospects. You pick them up ASAP, then drop them if they struggle or a better player comes up and/or gets going. The beauty of fantasy baseball is the ebbs and flows of a season. Unfortunately, we are a month into the season, and several slow-starters are the bigger, more trusted names in baseball.

Some of them are in a valid drop territory, others are worth holding on to for at least another month. If you play in shallower formats that feature 10 or fewer teams, you probably have more notable fantasy assets than in a deeper league. Maybe you want to cut a Rafael Devers or even Roman Anthony! Do not do it. Hold tight to your studs and be patient. There will be several pop-up prospects throughout the season, and cutting bait now on a (fantasy) star will likely burn you sooner than later.

1B/2B Ildemaro Vargas (ARI)

The 34-year-old journeyman infielder is having the best start of his career. Ildemaro Vargas has five HR, 14 runs, 16 RBI, and a .357/.375/.671 slash-line through 73 plate appearances.

Vargas is not only producing on the surface, but his underlying metrics are incredible. He is 18th overall in qualified xwOBA, while his expected slugging percentage is in the 94th percentile and his expected batting average is in the 100th percentile!

Unfortunately, it is difficult to believe that this tenth-year breakout will carry over across a full season. Vargas’s chase rate is in the sixth percentile, and his average exit velocity is in the 22nd percentile. He is a nice early-season story, but overcoming who you have been for a decade is a tall task for any major leaguer.

Picking Vargas up for a few weeks to ride the wave is fine. Do not expect a plug-and-play starter through the summer.

FICTION

1B/3B Coby Mayo (BAL)

Coby Mayo is RAKING this week. Since April 20, Mayo has produced three HR and a double, with four runs and seven RBI in 15 PA. He is making up for his ice-cold start to the season, where he slashed .148/.258/.185 from March 26 through April 19.

Mayo is a former top prospect whose upside fantasy managers have long dreamed of chasing. There is reason for optimism with Mayo beyond this week. He is running a .222 BABIP thus far, and his walk rate is up to 10.4%.

Unfortunately, his strikeout rate is still a concern at 27.3% and the Orioles are preparing for 3B Jordan Westburg to return in the coming weeks. Along with Westburg, Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad will be returning to the line soon as well. There is just not much room for Mayo in the Orioles’ everyday lineup, unless his hot streak gets even hotter.

Mayo’s is running a 113 wRC+ vs LHP while posting a meager 58 vs RHP. He is nothing more than a short-side platoon bat throughout the season.

FICTION

1B/3B Miguel Vargas (CWS)

The White Sox offense is white hot…relative to past years. They are hovering around league average (18th in team wRC+), partly thanks to the jump former top Dodgers prospect Miguel Vargas is making this season.

Vargas is slashing .215/.345/.441 through 26 games with a 121 wRC+, five HR, and five SB. His 15% walk rate is higher than his 14.2% strikeout rate, and his .205 BABIP is due for significant regression. His bat is in the middle of an improved batting order between Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery. This is not the greatest offense ever, but an improved one that can produce several fantasy-relevant hitters.

FACT

3B Josh Jung (TEX)

Josh Jung looks like 2023 Josh Jung again. Actually, he is even better.

2023

.266/.315/.467

5.8% BB / 29.3% K

.334 wOBA / .334 xwOBA

2026

.301/.359/.518

7.6% BB / 17.4% K

.383 wOBA / .343 xwOBA

This is not just a healthy Josh Jung, but a more patient Josh Jung. His strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, while his walk rate is the highest. His freaky streak of injuries is absolutely concerning, but if he is hitting at his xwOBA rather than wOBA throughout the rest of this season, he is a must-have player in 12+ team fantasy leagues.

FACT

OF Carlos Cortes (ATH)

The hottest hitter on planet Earth this week is Carlos Cortes. He has nine hits in 19 PA, with three HR and a 1.000 slugging percentage. Cortes is not only producing, but backing up his stats with red-hot advanced metrics.

He ranks fifth in qualified xwOBA this season and sixth in wOBA. He is in the top two percentiles for expected average and slugging. Also, his 6.5% strikeout rate is in the 99th percentile! This type of elite start to the season is difficult to ignore.

Cortes is in a strong-side platoon as a left-handed hitter, but hits third regularly against righties. This spot in the order, mixed with his presence in a talented offense that plays in one of the friendliest home environments, makes him a valuable fantasy option for 12+ team leagues. Even when Brent Rooker returns from the Injured List, Cortes should continue playing regularly in the top five of the lineup.

FACT

SP J.R. Ritchie (ATL)

The Braves called up Ritchie immediately after sending down Didier Fuentes. They essentially broke a stick in half and asked their top two pitching prospects to fight to the death in back-to-back starts. Ritchie came out the winner after posting a fantastic seven strikeout, two earned run, 1.00 WHIP quality start against the Nationals.

This start will keep Ritchie in the rotation for at least a few starts to show if he is for real, even with Spencer Strider due back next week. The Braves are desperate for a solidified rotation after losing Strider and Spencer Schwellenback for extended periods of time after Spring Training.

While this Ritchie start was excellent, there are still concerns in his profile, largely related to his minor league production. Ritchie’s 0.99 ERA in Triple-A this season looks great, but it is backed with a 4.25 xFIP and 14% K-BB. His K-BB has not exceeded 15% at either Double-A or Triple-A. The only time he could crack 20% was in Single-A.

Ritchie has good stuff, a deep arsenal, and is capable of generating a heavy number of ground balls, but this is not a fantastic pitching prospect at the moment. That first start was likely fugazi, and he should only be viewed as a streamer against bad offenses. If Didier Fuentes gets another opportunity in the rotation, I would expect him to beat out Ritchie for the long term.

FICTION

SP/RP Chase Dollander (COL)

The Rockies having a potential ace is scaring me. What year is it, and what world do we live in??

Chase Dollander is dominating offenses this season. He has a 2.88 ERA backed by a 2.79 xERA, 3.02 xFIP, and a 2.47 SIERA. This is not a mirage; he is elite. The 2023 top-ten pick was always talented. However, fearing that Coors Field would diminish his profile was valid.

Dollander has two starts at home this year and has given up just two runs and two walks while striking out 15 in 10 1/3 IP. These starts came against the Padres and Phillies, two league-average offenses vs RHP. The only real caveat for Dollander and acing his Coors tests is that these starts are not coming in the summer when Coors plays much more hitter-friendly.

Furthermore, he still has not “started” a game yet. It is difficult to assume he would be just as good as if teams loaded their lineups against him with left-handed players. Dollander has an extreme split between RHH and LHH.

vs. RHH

34.4% K-BB

1.68 xFIP

0.80 WHIP

vs LHP

7.5% K-BB

5.56 xFIP

1.38 WHIP

This is not someone I want to trust throughout the season, regardless of this glorious start to 2026.

FICTION

RP Louie Varland (TOR)

The Blue Jays have their closer. Louie Varland could not cut it as a starter, but has ascended to the elite among relievers.

Varland has a 2.52 ERA, 3.56 xERA, 2.85 xFIP, and 2.87 SIERA since 2025 as a full-time reliever across 85 2/3 IP. He is generating an average of two groundballs to every fly ball, while posting a very good 20.2% K-BB. Varland has even improved this year and is rightfully being inserted as the de facto closer after Jeff Hoffman’s brutal start to the season.

Varland struggled in his most recent opportunity to close a game on Saturday, but managed to earn the save and mitigate damage with just one run allowed. While this one outing will not hurt his case, he has to walk a fine line given how a lot of Hoffman’s struggles are rooted in bad luck.

Hoffman has not been better than Varland this season, but his 3.35 xERA, 1.68 xFIP, and 1.94 SIERA are incredible. His ridiculous .609 BABIP and 33.3% HR/FB rate are what caused his 7.59 ERA thus far. Fortunately, for Varland, this sport is results-based, and his results are far better. If Varland continues to shine, this job should remain his, at least in a primary closing role.

FACT