Points League: May Vibes Check

Last month, we looked at some of the surprising starts, for good and bad, around the league. Well, we’re another month in, so we’re going to do it again. However, our focus isn’t going to be on who’s been a happy surprise or disappointment for the season on the whole, but over the past month. Who are the guys who weren’t supposed to be top scorers but have nevertheless been among the best at their position, and can they keep it up? Who are the guys you expected to be studs who have been putting you in a bad mood on a nightly basis, and is there anything hopeful to look forward to?

 

(All monthly stats are through Saturday’s games.)

Catcher

Vibe Bringer: Liam Hicks, MIA

It feels like cheating to use Hicks here after I used him in last month’s version of this, but he just keeps doing it. Do you know where Grey had Hicks in his pre-season catcher rankings? 39th! He’s really, really good at his job, and I’m not just saying that because he’s my boss. But even he didn’t see anything like this coming, though he did say about Hicks, and I quote, “He’s actually kinda interesting.” Way to sell it short, boss!

Now, will he continue to bring the good vibes? That’s harder to say. He hardly ever strikes out, which is good. But his overall metrics are a lot worse than they were after the first few weeks of the season, and that’s not so good. In the end, I do not expect him to finish the year as a top-5 catcher. But could be top-12 the rest of the way? I believe so. And considering he was whatever you’d consider someone more off the radar than an afterthought in most points leagues before the season began, that’s fantastic.

 

Vibe Killer: Injuries, Everywhere

Is this a cop-out answer? Yes. But it’s also true. Before he got hurt, Cal Raleigh would have been the pick here, but then he went and, well, got hurt. But it’s not just him! Drake Baldwin had been killing it all season until, yep, hurt. Yainer Diaz and Francisco Alvarez? Hurt (and also mostly bad). Kyle Teel got hurt at the WBC, then as he was about to finish up his rehab assignment and make his season debut…hurt again. This is why it’s hard to trust catchers, folks.

First Base

Vibe Bringer: Miguel Vargas, CHW

Going into Sunday, only Nick Kurtz had put up more points over the last month than the Sox’ slugger. His full-season average is still only .244, but over the last month he’s hit .277 with 6 HR and 4 2B. Solid numbers, but nothing that screams out “elite.” A trio of steals and 13 BB vs 19 Ks helps, too. Basically, he’s been steady and solid, with a Savant page full of the red you like to see. Put it all together, and he’s looking like the one audacious pre-season pick that looks like it might actually pan out. (Sorry about those other ones.)

 

Vibe Killer: Vinnie Pasquantino, KC

Vinnie’s got competition for this spot from perennial stalwarts such as Freddie Freeman and Vlad Guerrero Jr. While Vlad’s power is entirely missing in action, the Pasquatch is the one currently sitting with an average below .200 and an OBP under .300. The hope coming into the season was that the fences being moved in at Kaufman would give him a boost. Instead, he’s been as responsible as anyone for the offensive drought plaguing the Royals. He’s walking a little bit more than years past, but that’s about the only thing he’s got going for him right now. He’s still got time to turn it around, but I would probably try to bench him until he shows some signs of life.

 

Second Base

Vibe Bringer: Bryson Stott, PHI

I admit, this one surprised me a bit. I know he’d been doing ok lately, but top-5 over the last month? How’s he done it? It hasn’t been by racking up the hits, as the average has only been .241. What he has done is make the hits he does get count. His career high for homers is 15, set back in 2023. Yet over the last month he managed to pop 5, along with 6 doubles and 1 triple. Overall, he’s had 20 hits, and 12 of them have gone for extra bases. And in 5 SB and…yeah, that’ll do it.

Now, unfortunately, I have to ruin the vibe by pointing out there is almost no chance this continues. Not at this pace, anyway. The home park can help some, and there are guys who overperform their power metrics every year. But this is Bryson Stott we’re talking about. And even with as solid as he’s been over the last month, he still sits against most lefties. So I hope you’ve been able to enjoy this surge, because this is one party I don’t see lasting.

 

Vibe Killer: Nico Hoerner, CHC

This was lining up to be Jose Altuve, but he gets a reprieve on account of currently being on the IL. In his place is Hoerner, and there’s a decent chance you didn’t realize how bad he’s been the last few weeks. For the season, Hoerner has still been a top-5 option at the position. Over the last month, though, he’s been outside the top-20. These things happen. It’s frustrating when they do, but they do. He’s been squaring things up, alright, but with absolutely zero authority whatsoever. That’s not entirely unexpected, as you didn’t draft him expecting power, but even by his standards, it’s been down a few points. That said, his expected stats pretty much line up with what he’s done in the past. He’ll be fine.

 

Third Base

Vibe Bringer: Casey Schmitt, SF

The Giants as a whole have been rather sleepy this season, but that can’t be said for Casey with the bat. He could have been the option for the other positions so far, too, but he gets the nod here. Add 7 HR, 16 RBI, and 2 SB, and you get CBS’s number 5 3B and ESPN’s number 2. Nothing in his track record gave any sort of indication that this sort of run was coming. His home ballpark would seem to work against it continuing. And yet, he just keeps raking. You’d like him to take a few more walks than he does, but other than that, keep enjoying the ride while it lasts.

 

Vibe Killer: Austin Riley, ATL

This is another position where there were plenty of disappointments to choose from. Yes, I’m looking at you, Alex Bregman and Manny Machado and Matt Chapman.

Riley has hit 5 homers over the last month, but they have come with a staggering 37 strikeouts going into Sunday. That’s brutal in leagues that count -.5 for Ks, but it is completely unplayable where they count for -1. Coming into the season, I really wanted to believe that being healthy would get him back to being at least close to the guy he was from ’21-’23. Alas.

 

Shortstop

Vibe Bringer: Brayan Rocchio, CLE

You could maybe make a case here for Xavier Edwards, but he was drafted in the majority of leagues. The power has been surprising, but him having a high-scoring month isn’t a shock. Rocchio, on the other hand, is bringing those surprise vibes we’re looking for. He’s not doing it with power, but rather by swiping bags and maintaining an essentially 1-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Unfortunately, he’s another I have a hard time seeing keeping it up. He could end up being something like Nico Hoerner-lite. In a deep roto league, there’s value in that. For most points leagues, though, you just don’t need to go that deep into the player pool, especially at SS.

 

Vibe Killer: Gunnar Henderson, BAL

The first half of the 2024 season feels so long ago. It’s not even that Henderson has been bad bad. He’s just been way worse than you drafted him to be. I still believe in the talent, and you can’t really bench him. You just sort of have to ride out the bad times and hope they make a turn sooner than later.

Outfield

Vibe Bringer: JJ Bleday, CIN; Spencer Steer, CIN; Zack Gelof, OAK

It’s impressive what playing your home games in Great American Ballpark can do for your numbers, at least assuming your name isn’t Ke’Bryan Hayes.

Bleday continues to look like a legitimate threat at the plate, and Steer has multiple seasons of outperforming his expected stats. Only this year, the expected stats look pretty good! He’s rocking career highs in xWOBA and xSLG to go along with a career-best Average Exit Velo. Good vibes, indeed.

Among this trio, Gelof is the one I’m not entirely vibing with. I’m not entirely out, though, either. Despite a career K% over 30%, he’s sitting at 23% this season. If he can maintain that rate, there might be something there. He’s not a standout in anything, but he’s shown a willingness to run, and he calls the right ballpark home to maximize his power. That could work. Definitely ride with it while it is.

 

Vibe Killer: Fernando Tatis Jr., SD; Ian Happ, CHC; Jackson Merrill, SD

I feel like I’m bringing up Tatis every week. Probably because I am. He’s still struggling and hitting for literally no power at all. I don’t know what else to say at this point.

Happ is doing what he does. He has good months, he has months where he looks entirely lost, and in the end, he’s top-30 or better at the position. The last month has been bad. Stick him on your bench if you want, but I’d bet on him coming around again. Again, it’s what he does.

Merrill is another one I was hoping to see return to prior form after a season ruined by injury. So far, not so much. And unlike his teammate, it doesn’t seem like the solution is as simple as “pull the ball, dude.” I don’t like it when players are dealing with back issues, either. I wish I had something to point to for optimism here, but I don’t

 

Contextual Vibe Killer: Oneil Cruz, PIT

I know, I know. But I have to bring it up. Cruz remains the poster boy for the difference that scoring format makes. Over the last month, with CBS’ scoring, he’s been the 33rd best OF. Not what he was during the first month of the season, but still someone you’d want to start. At ESPN? He’s been 74th! Why? It’s the Ks. As fun as he is, if he can’t significantly cut down that 36% K-rate he has going, he’s simply going to make himself unplayable in that format. Know your rules, folks.