On Base Percentage (OBP) is what Skynet created for the Oakland A’s so they could win the World Series and ruin baseball.

Actually, that doesn’t sound quite right. I think OBP is the brew baseball writers’ fermented in a basement to scare Andre Dawson, or it was the reason pitchers feared Jim Rice, thereby making him a Hall of Famer.

I’m all confused. But, apparently, Razzball readers and commentators aren’t. According to the recent survey we conducted (to mine all of your personal information to sell to Facebook), a ton of you play in leagues that swap out average for those crazy on base skills. Accordingly, this changes the value of several players:

Jose Bautista: Over the last three seasons (including Bautista’s generally poor 2009), Bautista has the eighth best OBP. Last season, Bautista was just .001 behind the OBP leader, Miguel Cabrera, and over the last two seasons, Bautista has the third best OBP in all of baseball. The only glaring weakness in Jose Bautista’s armor is average. If you substitute OBP, Bautista is a legitimate best-player-in-the-format candidate.

Lance Berkman: Berkman’s .412 OBP last year was the fifth best in all of baseball and not far off his career mark (.409). While Berkman’s average is typically useful, his OBP is top 10, making him a four-category stud. With OBP instead of average, Berkman should pass the likes of Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira, and Eric Hosmer and is a top six first baseman.

Adam Dunn: Until 2011, Dunn was the answer to the question of who benefits most from the switch to OBP. Last season, he posted an OBP under .300. Oddly enough his walk rate was close to his career norm, but his already high K-rate spiked, his ISO and BABIP cratered and he hit .159. Dunn can walk and appears to be approaching 2012 with more determination. A return to .350 OBP is certainly plausible and has some upside. Last season, Mike Stanton with a .356 OBP had the 40th best mark.

Prince Fielder: Fielder and Pujols have the same OBP over the last three seasons. During that time, Pujols has just 10 more HRs and eight more RBIs. In addition, during that same span, Cabrera has an OBP .012 points higher, 14 less HRs and 10 less RBIs. Fielder isn’t the top 1B in OBP leagues, but he isn’t far off. His move to the American League could depress his numbers somewhat, but in OBP leagues, he is a top producer.

Carlos Pena: While Carlos Pena’s OBP skills do not produce league leading rates, they do erase the stank displeasure of his putrid batting average. Pena has a .239 career average, but .352 OBP. A first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 HRs with a .355 OBP is top-10 consideration.

Mark Reynolds: Like Pena, Reynolds makes an untenable batting average disappear with a superior walk rate. For his career, his OBP is about 100 points higher than his batting average. While his .323 OBP last season was tied for 99th best, it’s a far cry from where his average would rank him. Reynolds is an incredibly attractive option in OBP leagues, as his immense power is not entirely derailed by a sub-optimal OBP. Grab Reynolds with confidence that you will get a .330 OBP, with 35 HRs and near 100 runs and RBIs.

Carlos Ruiz: Over the last three seasons, Ruiz trails only Joe Mauer in OBP. His .376 mark is far ahead of the third place healthy backstop Brian McCann. An afterthought in most leagues, Ruiz can provide solid catcher production in OBP leagues at virtually no cost. Pencil Ruiz in for a .365 OBP, eight HRs and 50+ runs and RBIs.

Nick Swisher: Nick Swisher in an on base cyborg. When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran). With Swisher’s .365 OBP and the Yankee line-up, runs and RBIs will be there. He’ll also add good pop and, best of all, you don’t have to worry about his .255 average.

Ben Zobrist: Zobrist, who walks at a great clip, has the ability to post the second best OBP at the position (behind Dustin Pedroia). A basic 20-20 guy with 100 runs and RBI potential, Zobrist takes a massive step forward in OBP leagues when they do away with his .260 average.

OBP Sleeper Values

Daric Barton: Over the last three seasons (1,158 plate appearances), Barton has a .373 OBP. He crashed and burned last season, but still posted an above average walk rate. If healthy, Barton should post a .365 OBP with 10 or so HRs, 80 runs and 70 RBIs. He could be a sneaky value in OBP leagues.

Jack Cust: Like Barton, Cust was horrible last year. However he had a .366 OBP from 2009-2011 and is moving from two difficult parks (Oakland and Seattle) to the hitter friendlier Houston and NL Central. In the easier league, Cust’s walk rate should play tremendously, possibly to the tune of a .370 OBP. He could also add 20-25 HRs and solid RBIs. As a flier, Cust’s upside makes the gamble reasonable.

Dexter Fowler: If only Fowler knew how to steal bases! His .365 OBP and 12.1% walk rate last season was a good step forward and echoed his minor league successes. He’ll likely only produce two categories: runs and OBP, but has a decent shot at 20 steals and upside to more if he ever figures out how to use his speed.

Jason Heyward: While Heyward hasn’t quite become a star, he knows how to get on base (13.2% walk rate, .362 OBP). In addition, his legitimate and realistic upside to 20+ HRs and 15 SBs make him worth reaching for in drafts. As he gets on base, he’ll score runs and has a solid shot at triple digits. At the worst, you have a solid run and OBP contributor with a little pop and speed.

Nate McLouth: Aside from a rough 2010, McLouth has shown above average on base skills. In fact, he posted double digit walk rates in every season since 2007, excepting 2008. As a late flier, McLouth makes a ton of sense. He should post a .345 OBP, get close to double digit HRs and steals and provide somewhat solid counting stats.

Geovany Soto: Soto’s treacherous average makes betting on his power unreasonable in average leagues. However, his 11.8% walk rate and .348 OBP solidify his power. As a catcher capable of 17-20 HRs with a .340 OBP, he is a clear top 10 option.

Those that get hurt in OBP leagues

Adrian Beltre: Beltre has been a good hitter throughout his career, especially since his escape from Seattle (.309 average last two seasons). However, he averages just 41 walks a season and has only posted two OBPs above .331 since 2001. His 2011 OBP was lower than that of Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Roberts, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis and Michael Young, whereas he had the third highest average among qualifiers at the position last year. He simply doesn’t walk enough and projecting and OBP over .335 is silly. While he remains a top seven option or so, hot corner specialists like Ryan Zimmerman, Youkilis and others can have more of an impact in OBP leagues.

Starlin Castro: There are a ton of shortstops with small gulfs between their averages and OBPs. Castro, who hit .307, is one of those. His average last season was only behind Troy Tulowitzki, however his OBP trailed eight shortstops. Given his age, there is optimism for growth, however Castro loses some luster in OBP leagues.

Robinson Cano: Cano has been a batting average superstar for much of his career. However, aside from 2010, he’s never been an on base machine. Last season, his OBP was seventh at the position and over the last three seasons is fifth. Meanwhile, Dustin Pedroia is an OBP dynamo. Certainly swapping average for OBP closes the gap between Cano and Pedroia. In this format, I wouldn’t mind passing on Cano and securing Pedroia.

Ian Desmond: Desmond just isn’t very good, so we shouldn’t be surprised he gets dinged in OBP leagues. His career .304 OBP was actually better than his effort last season, even though he improved his walk rate. There’s some optimism that Desmond can get his OBP to the .310-.320 range as he did improve his walks and cut down on swinging strikes and swinging at balls, however, over the last three seasons, roughly 30 shortstops have averaged OBPs over .315.

Alcides Escobar: In OBP formats, Escobar becomes a true one-category producer. His career .294 OBP is putrid and he has shown no signs of improvement (his walk rate declined in 2011, he chased more balls out of the zone and swung and missed more). He might be good for 25 steals, but that’s all he’s good for in fantasy.

Jeff Francoeur: Over the last three seasons, Francoeur’s .314 OBP is 75th among OFs, nestled between Aaron Rowand and Luke Scott. While his OBP improved last season, it was in large part thanks to a .323 BABIP and .285 AVG – he didn’t walk anymore and actually struck out more than normal. It is prudent to temper expectations for Francoeur in OBP leagues, especially because if that OBP suffers he’ll have no chance of reaching 20 steals again.

Ichiro: Just like Dunn has been the perennial gainer in OBP leagues, Ichiro has been the perennial loser. His .351 OBP over the last three seasons is 30th among OFs, while his .312 average is third. While many expect a bounce back, Ichiro is unlikely to post an OBP above .345, which, last season, would have tied him for 28th at the position. OBP leagues take away one of Ichiro’s calling cards: his superior average and relegate him to #3/#4 OF status.

Adam Jones: Jones really likes to swing the bat; his swing percentages have gone up pretty much across the board every season. In fact, his O-Swing% (the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) is at Vlad Guerrero levels. While he has been able to post solid averages, his swinging has translated to miniscule walk rates. He’s a fine option for average leagues, but his OBP over the last three seasons is 70th among OFs. In addition, his OBP has been trending downward: .335 in 2009, .325 in 2010 and .319 in 2011.

62 Comments
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Mick
Mick
11 years ago

Albert, great article. It’s always nice to get a different perspective on how players are viewed/ ranked with the change of just 1 stat.

That being said, I’m in a OPS league. What OF’s would you target as opposed to straight BA leagues? I know this article was for OBP specifically, but figured i’d get your insight.

Albert Lang
albert
Reply to  Mick
11 years ago

@Mick, Mick- thanks for reading. If you go to the Razzball home page, I actually have one up on OPS. Am remote so can’t grab the link for you. Sorry.

Mick
Mick
Reply to  albert
11 years ago

@albert, After I commented, I clicked the home page to see what new articles were out… and apparently I should have done that prior to posting. My apologies and thanks for the prompt reply.

Albert Lang
albert
Reply to  Mick
11 years ago

@Mick, not a problem, thanks for perusing the site and reading my words!

Albert Lang
11 years ago

Anyone with a big gulf between average and OBP gain value here. It’s obviously about degrees. However Carlos Pena and Mark Reynolds become really useful players, whereas they were back end options. I dont think you can elevate McCutchen a ton as I already have him really high.

As for BJ Upton, well he was a top 60 option anyway, he gets a bit of a bump but not a huge one.

I wouldnt worry about targeting speed guys with good OBPs, just go after the best available and it’ll sort itself out.

It’s not that Ichiro has a bad OBP (it’s certainly a good bit above league average), it’s more that he doesnt get the points for having a league-leading type average. They are still fine players to own who wont hurt you, they just dont benefit you as much

Jeff
Jeff
11 years ago

This is a great article and great timing as my league just switched last year from avg to obp. My former average target for a 12 team league was .275. I using .345 for obp. Seem about right or a little low?

Albert Lang
Reply to  Jeff
11 years ago

@Jeff, That seems about right. As it’s your first time, I might bump that up a tad and see where you sit after the first half and then could always sell OBP for stats you need, it’s much easier to maintain than build an OBP.

Jeff
Jeff
Reply to  Albert
11 years ago

@Albert, One comment that I have is that many of the top OBP performers come from the corner while fast shortstops (Reyes, Gordon, etc.) and two category OF (Bourn, Ichiro) rely more on speed to get on base and don’t know how to take a walk. So while guys like Fielder, Reynolds et al are extremely valuable, I’d argue that players that can steal 30 + bases and have a decent walk rate (Gardner, McCutch, Jennings, BJ Upton) are the real winners. Thoughts?

Albert Lang
Reply to  Jeff
11 years ago

@Jeff, Anyone with a big gulf between average and OBP gain value here. It’s obviously about degrees. However Carlos Pena and Mark Reynolds become really useful players, whereas they were back end options. I dont think you can elevate McCutchen a ton as I already have him really high.

As for BJ Upton, well he was a top 60 option anyway, he gets a bit of a bump but not a huge one.

I wouldnt worry about targeting speed guys with good OBPs, just go after the best available and it’ll sort itself out.

It’s not that Ichiro has a bad OBP (it’s certainly a good bit above league average), it’s more that he doesnt get the points for having a league-leading type average. They are still fine players to own who wont hurt you, they just dont benefit you as much

Wade8813
Wade8813
11 years ago

My league uses both BA and OBP (OBP is just a 6th category). Any suggestions on how much to adjust players that way?

On a related note, how does having 6 categories impact the importance of any one category?

Albert Lang
Reply to  Wade8813
11 years ago

@Wade8813, In a 6×6 league you give the OBP all-stars an increase in value but dont dock the players who are average stalwarts (ichiro, Starlin, etc.) but lacking in OBP.

The addition of a 6th category cuts the importance/value of the others a bit, they are now 1/6 of what you need in a player. When you’re adding OBP, it increases the importance of safeguarding your ratios. I assume this is roto? In head to head, the 6th category doesnt do much really, you should still focus primarily on the counting numbers

chata
chata
11 years ago

@ Albert :

seems that i always enjoy your articles ,
and your responses to questions , as well .

don’t screw up a good thing …. and if you do ,
don’t blame me for jinxing you .

am confessing to always having been an alexei rios fan .
unlike bautista who has successfully adopted a see-it-and-rip-it
approach at the plate ,
rios was unsuccessful with his “patty-cake” swings , last year .

am thinking that instead of just swinging like a timid 5 year old
girl leaving her mommy and entering kindergarten for her 1st week ,
that had he just left the bat on his shoulder , rios’ OBP might have
approached 5,000. , last year .

Albert , you used the word ‘putrid’ to describe escobar’s obp (see above)
and it reminded me of andrew zimmerman’s trip to iceland , to eat rotten
shark meat (that apparently is poison to eat any other way) ,
and that led me to thinking about watching rios’ efforts at the plate ,
last year …. and , yes , i’d like to quit him , but i can’t .

one man’s poison .

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
11 years ago

Hey Albert Lang, in a H2H OBP instead of AVG league, would you definitely take Berkman instead of Morse as your primary 1B?

It’s also worth mentioning that Hosmer takes a hit in this format since he walks so little.

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  Albert Lang
11 years ago

@Albert Lang, Berkman is just so old I’m going to hate my team if he’s on it. Especially as my primary 1B.

What are the chances you’d take Grey’s top 300 and adjust it for OBP? That would be very valuable.

Other OBP turds I’ve noticed are Crawford, Rios and Wells.

Malon
Malon
11 years ago

Just the article i was waiting for, thanks. You dont happen to know the league average for OBP in 2011, do you?

Lee
Lee
11 years ago

I’m in a league that removes AVG and subs in OBP with an extra category being SLG.. That said, I have an option to keep either Tulowitzki or Fielder, but not both… who would you choose? I’m not liking really any shortstops after Tulo, most of them are speedy guys with terrible slugging.. But Fielder gets a huge boost in OBP leagues.

Would you rather have Pedroia or Kinsler in an OBP/SLG league?

And last but not least, opinion on McCutchen in an OBP league?

chata
chata
Reply to  Albert Lang
11 years ago

@Albert Lang,

nothing to do with OBP , but ,
Cutch , as he is called in the Iron City , signing
an extension to remain in Pittsburgh , is a GOOD thing
for baseball , imo .

Steve Stevenson
Steve Stevenson
11 years ago

OBP league, keep Beltre in the 8th or Lawrie in the 10th? Two-rd penalty per year.

TheNewGuy
TheNewGuy
11 years ago

Hey Al seeing as you’re around, just thinking of a draft strategy for my upcoming auction (OBP league) this weekend. Clearly those guys above get a boost in these leagues, but how much would you change their dollar values by (lets say from Razzballs standard 10 team ESPN dollar values)? Is there a set way, do you revamp your own dollar values before the draft to show this or just target good OBP players? Didn’t look into this last year and so ended up with the Carlos Lee’s, Vernon Wells’ without realising how little they walk, so am trying to do a little more prep this time!

TheNewGuy
TheNewGuy
Reply to  TheNewGuy
11 years ago

@TheNewGuy, And also, might you lower some players dollar values (Castro, Ichiro etc).

TheNewGuy
TheNewGuy
Reply to  Albert Lang
11 years ago

@Albert Lang, Ok so the good OBP guys get a 5-10 buck boost (depending how much it is improved by) and the bad OBP guys can drop up to 10 bucks. I wonder how much it is recognised by our league members, and how much more ‘in demand’ good OBP guys are than bad ones. Might go back and look to see was there a big jump/ drop for those guys last year. Of course I don’t wanna find though that I target all the good OBP guys and everyone does the same, leading to a massive bidding war on those guys! Definately need that balance between price and added value guys…come to think of it this is probably the reason why I ended up with so many bad OBP guys last year!

SwaggerJackers
SwaggerJackers
Reply to  Albert Lang
11 years ago

@Albert Lang, That’s a really good point Albert Lang. I think it’s less important to focus on good OBP players and more on avoiding LOUSY OBP guys like Adam Jones who most casual fantasy baseballers don’t realize never takes a walk.

Matt B
Matt B
11 years ago

Nice article! I’m in a weekly h2h 5×5 that subs OBP and removes AVG. A lot of these were known entities to me but always great to find a few surprises. Thanks for taking the time.

Joe
Joe
11 years ago

Hey – very useful post, thanks! Any chance you, or any other Razzballer, could write up an equivalent post for OPS (both my leagues use it)? I get it if you feel there’s too much overlap with this post…

Joe
Joe
Reply to  Albert Lang
11 years ago

@Albert Lang, Cool, I look forward to reading it!

Donald Trump
Donald Trump
11 years ago

“When you throw out Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista and Lance Berkman, Swisher has the fourth best OBP over the last three seasons (behind Matt Holliday, Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Beltran).”…. Why not just say he was seventh best in OBP?

Chris
Chris
Reply to  Albert Lang
11 years ago

@Albert Lang,

I liked the article a lot, but yeah the wording from the above excerpt had me a bit confused too. Seemed an odd way to phrase Swish’s ranking.

quimmy
quimmy
11 years ago

nice article. what do you think about billy butler in an OBP league?

quimmy
quimmy
Reply to  Albert Lang
11 years ago

@Albert Lang, thanks. i keep looking at butler vs konerko and besides the 8-10 hr diff konerko can provide, i think i like butler to do better in runs, rbi, avg or obp. i also play in a TB+BB format and all those doubles for bulter add up as he outscored konerko last year in that category. plus i think his downside is far less than an aging konerko’s. thoughts?

quimmy
quimmy
Reply to  Albert Lang
11 years ago

@Albert Lang, billy boy qualifies at 1B in my league. yeah, konerko beat him in that category 358 to 341. ugh. i just love the royals lineup this year and hate the white sox lineup. moobs!

jack
jack
11 years ago

of the following players, could you rank whom you think has the best shot at signing a deal this season?: j.damon, v.guerrero, d.lee, r.oswalt, h.matsui ….thanks! (I’m looking for a sleeper in a deep league)

Pops
Pops
11 years ago

@ Albert: I was really hoping to find Dan Uggla’s name on the list. He had the highest OPS of any second sacker after the break. In a league that favors OPS over batting average, would you recommend taking Uggla and Bruce with consecutive picks? I’m worried that their prolonged slumps and all – or – nothing play could burn me in a head – to – head league. Thanks in advance.

Jean
Jean
11 years ago

Krispie and BJ Upton are a couple of guys whos value skyrockets in OBP leagues. Love the post! Soto, Fowler, Zobrist and Pena are a few of my favorites. Always seem to be available at a good value.

Chris
Chris
11 years ago

Nice article, Mr. Lang.

Don’t have any leagues that exclusively use OBP, but I do have 1 that uses AVG and OBP as separate categories. Will certainly be keeping my eye on players like Swisher and Fowler, and giving Fielder and Bautista more top pick consideration.

chata
chata
Reply to  Albert Lang
11 years ago

@Albert Lang,

haha … funny stuff ,
but with this crowd , maybe you should have said
eddie munster .

Lance
Lance
Reply to  Chris
11 years ago

@Chris, yeah, I have about as much interest in who you’re gonna keep an eye on as you do in my “whiny schtick”…I also don’t care what categories your league uses.

Lance Berkman
Lance Berkman
11 years ago

Thanks for the kind words good sir. Its nice to be recognized, unlike with some people….you hear me mustache man?!?!

Chris
Chris
Reply to  Lance Berkman
11 years ago

@Lance Berkman,

Your whiny schtick is just plain annoying at this point. Give it up already, it hasn’t been funny since like last August.

Paul
Paul
11 years ago

I’m in a 12 team 5×5 mixed keeper. c/1b/2b/3b/ss/3xOF/util and 1450IP.

I finished in 3rd last year and in a position to contend this year.

Below I’ll list the players and 3 dollar amounts. The first number is the cost for 2012. The 2nd and 3rd numbers are cost to keep in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

I’ve been offered;

Halladay $33, $33, $33
Car-Go $14, $20, $ 26
Texiera $22, $22, $22
Aaron Hill $2, $4, $6

I’ll be trading away;

Braun $36, $36, $36
F-Her $25, $25, $25
Matt Moore $1, $2, $3
Avila $2, $3, $4.

Other than the 4 player I listed above, I am keeping; Ike Davis, Tulo, Aramis, Victorio, Moustakas, Dom Brown, D. Hudson, Luebke, Anibal, Bailey and Betancourt.

Do I pull the trigger?

Albert Lang
Reply to  Paul
11 years ago

@Paul, Braun is by far the best player in the deal, then probably CarGo and Halladay, then a toss up between Tex and King felix.

It kind of depends on what kind of catcher you can get in the auction. I’d probably roll the dice as you are getting proven players whereas the guys you are giving up (while cheap) are by no means reliable.

It’s a fair deal.