We’ll step away from the minor league previews for a sec and take a look at some of the new additions to the player pool for dynasty leaguers. This is assuming, of course, that your league doesn’t allow them to be picked up in season and they’re already gone. Dynasty first-year player drafts are always fun. It’s the best way to inject your team with some new life outside of negotiating trades or getting lucky on the wire. In super deep leagues, this top 25 will just be a taste of the first round, but in most formats 25 names should get your feet wet in the second round as well. It’s important to realize that with all prospects there’s a bunch of risk involved. That’s even more of a factor in this type of list, since there just hasn’t been as much exposure to these prospects yet. Last, but not least, this list is tweaked to help your fantasy squad, and won’t necessarily follow the same path as traditional prospect lists or draft boards. It also has some of my personal fantasy philosophy built into it, so don’t get too upset if your favorite prep arm isn’t as high as you’d like him to be. Without any more rambling, here are the top 25 dynasty league signees for 2016 fantasy baseball…
1. Brendan Rodgers, SS | Rockies | Age: 19 | ETA: 2019
2. Dansby Swanson, SS | Braves | Age: 21 | ETA: 2018
3. Alex Bregman, SS | Astros | Age: 21 | ETA: 2018
This is the cream of this year’s crop in the form of three shorstops with the offensive potential to be fantasy stars. Early reports on all three are stellar. Despite being the youngest of the trio, Rodgers gets the nod for first overall thanks to his plus power and the fantasy-friendly organization he plays for. Hard to go wrong with any of these three.
4. Andrew Benintendi, OF | Red Sox | Age: 21 | ETA: 2018
5. Ian Happ, 2B/OF | Cubs | Age: 21 | ETA: 2018
6. Kenta Maeda, RHP | FA | Age: 27 | ETA: 2016
7. Byung-ho Park, 1B/DH | Twins | Age: 29 | ETA: 2016
It’s no big deal if you’re picking outside of the top three this year thanks to a couple of good college bats and some major league ready imports. Depending on your roster and your competitive window, you may flip-flop the players in this group, but either way you’re looking at talent that should help your team relatively quickly. Benintendi raked in the Sally, Maeda looks like he might end up in a cozy west coast park, and Park offers the type of power upside fantasy players drool over. Jung-ho Kang’s success in 2015 should be enough to make sure Park doesn’t escape the top ten this year.
8. Kyle Tucker, OF | Astros | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019
9. Carson Fulmer, RHP | White Sox | Age: 21 | ETA: 2017
10. Eddy Julio Martinez, OF | Cubs | Age: 20 | ETA: 2017
11. Trent Clark, OF | Brewers | Age: 19 | ETA: 2019
12. Cornelius Randolph, 2B/OF | Phillies | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019
This group starts to get a little more risky but still offers plenty of fantasy potential. Tucker’s power is his biggest draw, while Fulmer could be fast tracked to the majors, making him the safest pitching bet outside of Maeda. EJM is kind of an unknown, but the 20-year-old Cuban is already drawing comps to superstars thanks to his combination of power and speed. Clark and Randolph are personal favorites thanks to their pure hitting abilities and hitter friendly clubs, but both are also pretty far away from contributing.
13. Dillon Tate, RHP | Rangers | Age: 21 | ETA: 2017
14. Yadier Alvarez, RHP | Dodgers | Age: 19 | ETA: 2019
15. Daz Cameron, OF | Astros | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019
16. Yusniel Diaz, OF | Dodgers | Age: 19 | ETA: 2019
17. Garrett Whitley, OF | Rays | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019
18. Tyler Jay, LHP | Twins | Age: 21 | ETA: 2017
19. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., OF | Blue Jays | Age: 16 | ETA: 2020
It’s going to tempting to reach for Guerrero with the reports on his raw talent, but it’s only smart to recognize that he’s just a pup and has an extended ETA. Cameron has power and speed and shouldn’t last anywhere near as long as he did in the real draft. Alvarez and Tate are big upside plays for pitching, and Garrett Whitley looks like the type of five-tool prospect that we love in fantasy…and you shouldn’t need to pick at the top of the draft to land him.
20. Lucius Fox, SS | Giants | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019
21. Kolby Allard, LHP | Braves | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019
22. Josh Naylor, 1B | Marlins | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019
23. Scott Kingery, 2B | Phillies | Age: 21 | ETA: 2018
24. Brady Aiken, LHP | Indians | Age: 19 | ETA: 2019
25. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B | Pirates | Age: 18 | ETA: 2019
Kingery is a hit/speed profile that works in fantasy at the middle infield slot. Allard could be a long term project, but he has frontline starter potential and the right organization to develop it. I like Naylor’s power later in drafts, but the defensive home, long ETA, and, well, the Marlins chip into his value.
Others: Kevin Newman, Tyler Stephenson, Bryce Denton, D.J. Stewart, Nick Plummer
Why are so few comments about this actual post? LoL
haha because it’s December and I’m not Grey :)
Where would you slot Jorge Ona if/when he signs?
Surprised you have Allard’s ETA at 2019, is that concern over him needing to further his change and/or injury issues? I would think with his advanced feel for pitching and solid command he could get a taste in 2017 possibly, especially on that squad…maybe you think the Braves play the long game since the Mets and Nationals will rule the division for at least 2 more seasons, probably more?
As always love the aggressive J2 rankings, how much does Guerrero jump if this were, say, a 20 team keep 50 dynasty?
Where would Byun-Soo Kim slot if this list were made today?
@robbyrobdu:
Hyun*
lots of wiggle room in the ETAs, but I don’t see why they’d rush him
I don’t know that Vlad would move all that much since the talent pool entering would be the same regardless of format
Kim looks like a decent average with ~15 homers. I don’t know that it’s an impact type, but depending on your window you may want to nab him in the same tier as Maeda and Park
@Mike:
But in a larger format, wouldn’t ultimate upside matter a little, if not a good deal more…being able to hold a guy without sacrificing starting stats?
I don’t get it
My favorite Maikel post of the year! Can’t believe I’m 2 days late to the party!!
haha…you’re here now, that’s the important thing
Hi Maike!
I am looking to send a potential trade offer to get one (or two) of these prospects. How would you rank them?
Albert Almora, ChC OF
Franklin Barreto, Tor SS
Alen Hanson, Pit SS
Billy McKinney, ChC OF
Nick Gordon, Min SS
Rio Ruiz, Atl 3B
Dan Vogelbach, ChC 1B
Barreto
Hanson
Gordon
Almora/McKinney
@Mike:
Thanks for replying … Out of the guys that you ranked, which one(s) do you feel have a good chance of coming out of spring training with their MLB team or being in the majors sometime this season?
no problem…Hanson
@Mike: especially now that Walker got traded to the Mets.
Why did you rank Benentendi over Happ? I agree, but just wondering why you did.
I love this website you guys are great!
super close…Beni with a tick more speed
thanks!
I feel that.
Thanks for replying!
anytime
that giles deal very good for your buddies. can’t believe teams that actually do research, think etc would pay that much for a 1 inning pitcher, even if he’s a top 10 one. Thought that Luhnow guy had his shit together. VV ends up likely as a number 2 ithought, Fisher i thought was supposed to be quite good at some point. oberholtzer is pretty trashy of course. It’s better for me too, as Giles will probably get more saves with HOU (maybe, hard to tell with that though, bad teams often win by small margins in much higher concentrations), i only have Giles in one league. HOU had been doing pretty well with the guys they sign in offseason moves, rather than give up two big deal specs.
I liked it a lot. Giles could have easily been part of the rebuild as well, but getting a possible #3 starter/late-inning reliever and the fact that they landed Fisher as well was pretty cool. Fisher has solid upside even though he’s not elite.
Guess who drafted Brendan Rodgers in my mid season minor draft last year. This guy, thats who. Awesome.
haha nice! that’s good foresight
@Mike: believe it or not, i also picked up Andrew Benintendi. He is going to be a special bat I think. Here is my minor league keepers going into 2016:
Gleyber Torres, Brendan Rodgers, Aaron Judge, David Dahl, Andrew Benintendi, Franklin Barreto, AJ Reed, Henry Owens, Aaron Nola, Yadier Alvarez, Ryan Mcmahon, Jorge Alfaro.
really solid there…nice work
@Mike: Thanks!
Big Mike! I just hit Grey with a ton of this crap so I’ll try and keep it shortish and sweetish, if you’d be so kind:
12 team standard roto keeper league – Yahoo (2 C’s, CI, MI, + 5 OF)
Can keep 8 total, with up to 4 undrafted Free Agents (listed below) – which would you go with?
Players drafted last year currently on my squad (* are those I’m thinking of keeping already):
Rd – Player – Years of control
3 – Heyward – 4 more
4 – Hamels – 3 more
5 – Garret Richards – 4 more
*6 – Cruz – 3 more
9 – Trumbo – 1 more
*10 – Keuchel – 1 more
12 – Russell Martin – 4 more
*17 – T. Walker – 4 more
*18 – Crush Davis – 1 more
*19 – Gallo – 4 more
20 – Boxburger – 4 more
*21 – Sugar…Cain – 3 more
23 – Brandon Moss – 2 more
24 – Melancon – 3 more
26 – Peraza – 4 more
28 – Vogt – 4 more
AND/OR
Free Agents:
I can keep up to 4 of the following FA’s in the 25th rd for 1 year, and then once in the 10th the year after (If there are two players in the same round, one moves to the previous round):
* Hector Olivera
* Patrick Corbin
Jeurys Familia
Aaron Nola
What are your thoughts? I’m not sure about Gallo but kind of want to see how he plays out. Otherwise Trumbo, Vogt or Brandon Moss seem pretty bleh to me
Held Peraza all year thinking he’d be a sweet mini-me altuve. Any idea if he’s included in the Chapman trade, heading to Cincy?
Thanks a ton man!
no problem…I think your choices make sense. I like Peraza over Corbin though and I might take Nola over Olivera if you’re keeping him in the 25th round…not sure about that one though. I think the Chapman trade fell through, no? I haven’t heard yet.
@Mike: I’ve been sharing your Peraza love for a solid year now Mike and I don’t see where he’s going to break in. I really want my 50 MI steals! don’t think that trade has gone through yet, or if peraza was going the other way…
alternatives are Hamels (4th rd for 3 more years) and Familia for Olivera and Corbin (all 25th rd for a year, then 10th after, then can’t be kept) – what do you think about those guys specifically?
Outlook on Olivera and Gallo?
I’d probably go Olivera then. Gallo kinda is what he is…big power but he’ll be a batting average liability, but I’d still keep him.
@Mike: so you wouldn’t touch Hamels or Familia?
what would you think Olivera’s ceiling would be?
I feel like ppl were saying Stanton had a crazy strikeout rate and he’s obviously stabilized it… just don’t want to miss out on having 4 years of Gallo there…
ceiling for Olivera prolly 20 hr/.280
I think you should keep Gallo
Hamels might help you more, I’m just not in love with the round you’d have to protect him in
Would Moncada be #1 on your list?
yup
1. Mike! Does VV now possess the highest ceiling in the Phil’s future rotation(hopefully)?
2. Do you know much about Alex Verdugo? With a step forward in the power department, does he get into the top 50ish? Or is my crush unfounded? I traded Renato Nunez and his possible 2016 MLB arrival in a dynasty league for Verdugo. How does that look to you?
3. I read Nomar Mazara will most likely need to move to 1st. Have you heard the same? That would certainly hurt his value. Any thoughts on that?
1) yeah, I could see that. Still like Nola though
2) yup, like him a lot…I’d buy now before the power spike happens and his price goes up
3) I’ve seen that too. It’s possible, but I think they give him a shot at OF corner first
@Mike: STILL not in yahoo, such a GD joke, i should have this guy stashed in at least 6 spots by now, but can’t. i need to move everything to fantrax (except i’m not comish in most, so no guarantee there at all)
lol wow…cmon yahoo
Hi Maike!
Thanks for the great information. :) I am looking at my teams and I am trying to gauge the value of a few SPs. How would you rank ..
Aaron Nola (PHI)
Sean Nolin (OAK)
Matt Wisler (ATL)
Mark Appel (HOU)
anytime…I’d just flip Wisler and Nolin
@Mike: Thanks for replying :)
of course…no problem
good work, that’s 1/5th of my draft right there out of the way. well, almost, with compensatory yada yadas.
thanks! glad it helped
Hey Mike! Great stuff as always. I got a question about a trade offer I just received in a long term dynasty league I’m in.
I’m being offered a package of Lindor, Syndergaard, and Andrew Miller in return for Correa
The league has 40 man rosters (25 active) and we use an auction draft and then contracts (no longer than 3 years with inflation each year of the contract) as our keeper system. Contract costs for each player over the next three years all happen to be the same: 2016: $2.50 2017: $5.00 2018: $7.50
We use OBP instead of AVG and QS instead of W
Thoughts? I’ve resisted trading Correa previously to this same guy who offered Lindor and Syndergaard. Now that he’s throwing in Miller, I feel like I have to at least consider it, but I’m still hesitant.
thanks! I’d hold Correa
Does Hanson get a big boost after the Walker deal? Or are there still too many utility guys on the team?
Also I wonder how many guys in the DBacks FO were like ” yeah Dave that’s a great idea”?
Hey Mike – great list. A couple questions here. Did Austin Riley get any serious consideration for this list? All he did was mash when he got to pro ball. Feels like he should be somewhere in that Top 25, but that might just be me.
thanks! he did. He stood out when I was researching the Braves list. Probably still slot him in the final group or “bubble” group though.
Hi, Mike.
This offseason I’m starting up a 16-team dynasty, keep forever league with a 28/12 MLB/MiLB split. It’s my first dynasty and first 16-team league. Suffice to say I’m going to be a regular on your posts!
I had a few questions that I was hoping you’d answer.
With 12 MiLB spots, how should my batter/pitcher splits be? Like you, I value bats more and I value proximity to MLB more than someone far away. Should I always try to land a stud SP?
Our slow draft for MiLB will start in January. How soon can I expect some sort of top 50 prospects list from you?
Are there any prior resources you’ve posted about general dynasty league tips?
Where would Hector Olivera hypothetically rank on your list?
hmmm, prolly right in front of Maeda. I still kinda like him to be honest and hope he is still able to get reps at 3B
Thanks brah and great lists.
anytime…thanks!
We keep 3 farm guys and I currently have Jameson Taillon, Black Snell and Aaron Judge. Would you drop one of those 3(Taillon?)for a chance at drafting Otani or not bother bc of too many questions marks about when he’s actually coming?
more upside and risk in Otani…tough call and more about your window and how your team is built. Personally I don’t like to hold onto pitchers who are far away
how would you rank the following guys over the next two years. There’s a lot of inflation, so the dollar values don’t matter too much here really. If a player is better, it’s probably worth the money. 6×6 OPS (depresses steals just a little vs. slugging%)
Gomez: $17
Desmond $10
Odor $8
Grichuk $2
Ketel Marte $2
does anybody stand out to you as a real force for longer than the two years?
I’d probably go Odor, Gomez, Grichuck, Marte
There is apparently buzz at the winter meetings that Shohei Otani is going to be posted after next season.
If that happens, that removes the biggest question mark about the guy. Basically, I’m snagging him immediately in my dynasty league. My knee-jerk reaction is that he goes to the top of any list (plus, I have Correa, so I don’t need another shortstop).
whoa cool…I’m surprised his team would post him that soon
Well heres to hoping he pops 15 HR’s by the all-star break, and brings a nice package from a contender at the trade deadline.
If that happens I’ll be far less likely to question the new management group going forward. They have really impressed me with these other trades that they have pulled this offseason.
Hey thanks for taking the time to answer a few questions about my lowly Braves. Have a good one, Mike.
anytime…you too!
Yeah… I figured Swanson being a little further along was likely the answer. He supposedly has leadership qualities that cannot be taught… in my smallest voice “kinda like Derek Jeter ?”
One more question if you have the time, Mike. What in the hell do you make of the Peraza, Wood, and Johnson for Olivera trade last summer ? It seems to fly in the face of everything the Braves are trying to do.
Trade 2 young controllable guys for one unproven older more expensive player ? I have never been able understand that deal.
I think the Braves were in on Olivera to begin with, and this was a way to get their man without footing the bill. I’m with you though, his age and risk don’t really make sense for what they appear to be doing. Maybe they let him pump up some value and flip him?
Hey Mike,
With everyone agreeing that Rodgers is probably the SS with the most upside from last years draft why do you think he went third ?
What about Swansons game made him No. 1 ?
And finally whats your take on the Shelby Miller for Swanson trade ? Do you know much about Aaron Blair who was also sent to ATL in that deal ?
Thanks for any insight, muchacho.
1/2) less risk? shorter ETA?
3) I think the Braves are rebuilding and if that fanbase is patient it’s going to come together nicely in 2018. Blair has mid-rotation upside and he’s close to the majors.
Anyone I can look at as a comp for Kepler this year?
Do you prefer Kepler or Altherr for this year /future?
I’m terrible with comps, but it looks like a 20/20 ceiling. For this year I’d take Altherr, since there’s more opportunity in Philly’s outfield right now. He’ll give you 15/15 if it’s a good year. Neither guy will hurt your average.
Seems like the Dbacks really, really, really wanted Shelby Miller..
yeah I don’t get it, but I guess DBacks have a solid rotation now. Braves really loading up.
@Mike: You might need to do an updated Braves prospect report..
I’m in an OBP/SLG league with about the top 60 players kept each year. Where does Correa fit into keeper rank in that scoring format? Top 5? 10? 15? And similarly, where does Sano fall into that mix?
In keepers I think Correa is Top 5-10 at this point and Sano top 15-20, but that’s a total gut reaction without really looking at it closely
Thanks, Mike!
This is probably the most helpful list of the off-season, for twitchy dynasty-leaguers that want to draft right after Thanksgiving. I only wish this list went to 50.
(let’s be honest, it could go to 100 and still be more useful than another write-up of the Tigers’ system)
In the back end of round 2, what do you think of Kevin Newman or Nick Plummer? What categories can you get out of either of those guys?
thanks! glad it helped! I think either are fine there…Newman is hit/speed SS while Plummer a little less hit and speed and a little more pop at CF. I might lean Newman personally due to position and proximity.
@El Famous Burrito:
thankfully this should be just right for me…. my deepest league has 12 teams with 10 prospects right now, expanding to 15 in a febuary draft. I have done a little trading of picks, and my last one clocks in around 35th overall (I have the the 6 and 12, then a bunch in the 20ies)… with some decent guys unowned (guys like chance sisco, Andrew Knapp, Jacob Nottingham, and a whole slew of others, but I do not have my list in front of me). I think 25 guys that are new to pool should be enough to get me to my last pick.
Love this write-up, good to have it in my back pocket when it comes time for the league’s dynasty draft
thanks! I’m glad it was helpful
so what you’re saying is that wild west reject BS style is not as fun
give it a chance!
@Mike: like peace?
Hey Mike! Do any prospects shift dramatically if ETA only gets very slight consideration? As in, I don’t even want them making the majors for at least a couple of years, unles s they’re going to Correa it and be able to contribute to a championship run immediately, because trading is not an option in this league.
I like Clark and Randolph even more if ETA isn’t a factor