*Plays triangle* come and get it, boys, it’s time for a Hodgepadre treat! In San Francisco! Which kinda makes it a San Francisco Treat! I’m sorry for shouting, I’ve had too much coffee! *Takes some purple drank and Xanax*…ah, much better. Now where was I? Oh yeah, Dinelson Lamet. Don’t let the 6.40 ERA fool you, Dinelson has some more intriguing stats you’ll want to get to know. Namely, a 12.40 K rate to go with a 3.80 BB rate as well as a 13.3% swinging strike rate. He’s been very unlucky with his strand rate (52.6% LOB) and because he’s a flyball pitcher, he does tend to give up some long balls with a 19.3% HR/FB rate. The great thing about that last stat, though? He’s at AT&T Park, one of the hardest parks to hit one out in right next to Petco. Throw in how the Giants offense is straight awful this year, Dinelson should eat and so should you. So lets feast on some other picks. Here’s my Chinese taekout taeks for this Sunday brunch slate…
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Stephen Strasburg, SP: $21,900 – His start vs Atlanta makes you wanna cover your hair and your eyes, but he’s been in good form in three of his last four. Because of his price and the park, I really like Stras as a #1 in tourneys as the Diamondbacks offense has been struggling no matter where they play of late (4th worst wRC+ over last 30, 26.5% K rate). Pair him with Lamet and watch the strikeouts come. So I don’t waste time on it, duh, Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber are good plays today and I’m fine with either as your 1 in cash.
Junior Guerra, SP: $14,700 – I’m not sure the K’s will be there, but I’m always willing to challenge the Phillies with a better than average arm. Maybe a safe 2 in cash, but not enough upside for tourneys.
Rafael Montero, SP: $14,400 – The exact opposite of Junior Guerra, we shall call Rafael ‘Arreug Roinuj’ today…hey, I made a Star Wars character! Oakland is a boom or bust offense with the third worst K rate in the majors. I think Arreug paired with Lamet offers a great way to get Coors bats in today.
Joey Votto, IF: $10,400 – Tom Toilet Water Koehler is an arm I’d like to aggressively attack today if I’m not riding the Coors effect. I know the Reds have struggled of late, but Koehler has struggled all year. It’s the battle of the suck and I think the Reds will win it. Gimme some Zack Cozart to go with Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall.
Edwin Encarnacion, IF: $9,300 – A lefty on the mound who plays for EE’s former team and he’s in Cleveland? Giddy up.
Miguel Sano, IF: $9,000 – More righty on lefty damage. Boyd is bad. We’ll call him Bayd and enjoy a Sano homer or two.
Mike Napoli, IF: $7,200 – Odorizzi still has reverse splits. Couple that with him going through a rough patch and I’m willing to slide down to here to enjoy his misery.
Avisail Garcia, OF: $8,800 – Garcia has been a monster vs LHP this year and should probably be in the high nines when facing a southpaw. Enjoy the slight discount and come Avisail away with me.
Whit Merrifield, IF/OF: $8,400 – A bit overpriced? Maybe, but he’s a doubles machine that can also steal a bag. Derek Holland, though a great weatherman, is a pretty mediocre leaning on bad MLB pitcher.
Kole Calhoun, OF: $5,600 – No doubt, Calhoun has been bad but Porcello’s pitching profile has gone from low K, high GB% to high K, high FB% and is getting creamed for it in the form of HRs. If you wanna load up on Angels today, I wouldn’t deny you of it. Gimme Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Luis Valbuena while we’re here.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s some wetness and thunderstorms to be aware of. Be on high alert for BALvsHOU, PHIvsMIL, and CINvsMIA and be sure to read up just prior to lock.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Kershaw and his Dodgers have the best line on the day at -360 followed by Kluber at -200. Outside that, no one really jumps out as a leader of the pack with McCullers and company sitting at -145 on the day. Given how good the Astros offense is and how much Bundy has been slumping, this would give me pause to start him in a 10.5 O/U game. Surprise O/U of the day? An 8.5 in the desert. Strasburg vs Robbie Ray is getting a lot of ace treatment. Maybe Ray is in play and I’m missing it…The big obvious part 2? Coors has the highest O/U on the day at 12.5, but we know you don’t have to work that hard to get big numbers from your bats. The sneaky place to load up today will be KCvsCWS at 11. When I see an 11 hung at Kaufman, I know I want in.