Last week was full of mixed results. That will sometimes happen, but we were pleased with the bats. What’s funny is that we’re seeing all of the regression monsters bite back on these teams. The Cardinals and Cubs were two of the biggest surprises through the opening months, but the inevitable flip-flop has hit these teams like a brick wall over the last week. That’s one of the reasons I love baseball because we have a considerable sample size to look at. Fantasy football can drive me crazy at times because of the limited sample sizes, but things always creep back to the mean in baseball. With that in mind, let’s look at the matchups and streamers for this week!
Favorable Team Matchups
Chicago White Sox (at CLE, at DET)
Colorado Rockies (vs. MIA, vs. NYM)
Miami Marlins (at COL, at LAA)
St. Louis Cardinals (at CIN, at CLE)
Seattle Mariners (vs. OAK, vs. PIT)
Kansas City Royals (vs. DET, vs. WAS)
New York Mets (at CHC, at COL)
San Diego Padres (at WAS, at NYY)
Marco Gonzales, SEA (vs. OAK, vs. PIT)
We’ve had Marco as one of our streamers numerous times in the past, and we’ll ride him again this week. This southpaw isn’t the sexiest option with his lack of strikeout stuff, but he will be tough to fade with these matchups. Oakland is 24th in wOBA, 26th in runs scored, and 29th in xwOBA, while Pittsburgh has been slumping as of late. The Pirates have lost 13 of their last 17 games, scoring just 17 combined runs in those 13 defeats. That means Marco is facing two of the worst offenses in baseball and could be a -200 favorite in both of these starts. Two eight-run shellings have obliterated Marco’s season averages, but he’s got a 3.45 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across his other six outings. He’s also been a quality start machine throughout his career and should cruise to two of those this week.
Brady Singer, KC (vs. DET, vs. WAS)
Singer was drafted in every league, but he’s been relegated to one of our streamers after his horrific start to the year. The right-hander has an ERA above 7.00 but has pitched much better over his last two outings. We’re willing to buy on the recent resurgence because Brady had a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in a breakout campaign last year. We expect his 7.00 ERA to regress back to normal because he’s got a 4.57 xFIP.
These matchups are the perfect way to creep closer to the mean, with Detroit and Washington ranked near the bottom of every offensive category. The Tigers sit 27th in K rate, 29th in OBP, and last in runs scored, while Washington ranks 24th in runs scored, 28th in wOBACON, and 23rd in xwOBA. In his two home starts against Detroit last year, Singer allowed just one run across 13 sparkling innings. He’s also a favorite of The Streamonator, projected to provide $13.7 worth of value.
James Paxton, BOS (at ARI)
We’ve always loved the talent that Paxton possesses, but this guy can never stay on the field. He’s healthy right now, though, making him one of the best streamers out there. The left-hander has his fastball flirting with 96 MPH right now, providing a 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 11.5 K/9 rate through his first two starts. That’s the stud we’ve seen in the past, with Pax posting a 3.66 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 32 percent K rate since 2017. We’re not so sure Paxton will last longer than a month, but he’s worth rostering against Arizona. The Diamondbacks rank 26th in xwOBACON and 19th in xwOBA.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC (vs. CIN)
Hendricks is expected to make his season debut this week, and many fantasy managers forgot this guy existed. That’s funny because Hendricks has been amazing at times throughout his career, totaling a 3.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. That’s over 1,300 innings of great pitching, and we saw Kyle allow just one run across six innings in his most recent rehab start at Triple-A. The Reds are comparable to a Triple-A lineup right now, ranked 24th in K rate and dead-last in xwOBA. This is risky since it’s his first start, but Hendricks could be rostered in every fantasy league this time next month if he recaptures his career form.
The Marlins are in for a big week. Anyone getting four games at Coors Field is tough to avoid because that has the Marlins projected to score nearly 35 runs in a seven-game week. That’s a monstrous total, but they could reach double figures in one of two of those Coors Field games. We say that because the Rockies rank 27th in wOBA, 28th in OBP, and 25th in ERA. Soler and De La Cruz are regularly at the heart of this order, batting between third and fifth.
De La Cruz is one of baseball’s hottest hitters, tallying a .500 AVG, 1.091 SLG, and 1.651 OPS across his last six outings. He’s also riding a 14-game hitting streak and should dominate since he has a .920 OPS against lefties this year. The Marlins face four southpaws this week, which is sensational since Soler has a .486 OBP and 1.520 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. He’s also got a .367 OBP, .642 SLG, and 1.008 OPS across his last 14 games in total.
Randal Grichuk, COL (vs. MIA, vs. NYM)
We had Grichuk as one of our streamers two weeks ago, and we’re going right back to him. This is the first time Colorado gets seven games at Coors, making them the highest-projected scoring team of the week. They’ll be projected to score 35-40 runs, and Randal should be at the heart of their order every day. That’s scary with how he’s swinging the bat, boasting a .352 AVG, .417 OBP, .500 SLG, and .917 OPS. That’s right on par with what he’s done at Coors over the last two years, generating a .884 OPS. The matchups aren’t great for the Rockies, but they’ll still be projected to score five runs on every slate in the friendly confines of Coors Field.
Yoan Moncada, CWS (at CLE, at DET)
Moncada has been great in limited time this year, totaling a .317 AVG, .524 SLG, and .872 OPS. We’ve seen Moncada play like that for months at a time, and it has Yoan batting cleanup in all seven games since coming off the IL. Getting seven games this week as a cleanup hitter is enough incentive to use him with how he’s raking, but these matchups are lovely too. His opposition this week includes guys like Alex Faedo, Joey Wentz, Michael Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Peyton Battenfield, Logan Allen, and Cal Quantrill. Only one of those guys scares us, making Moncada one of the best streamers of the week.
SAGNOF (Saves/Steals Ain’t Got No Face)
Leody Taveras (TEX)
Taveras has been a pleasant surprise with his .298 AVG and .362 OBP, but the five steals excite us for a SAGNOF option. He has four steals over the last 12 days and could move up in this order if his hot-hitting continues.
Taylor Walls (TB)
The Rays pull these guys out of nowhere, and Walls is another one of those diamonds in the rough. He’s got three steals over the last five days and is eligible at numerous positions on Yahoo. He’s also got an OBP north of .350 and a .550 SLG, so he might be a good streamer, no matter what.
Edward Olivares (KC)
The Royals lineup is a disaster, but Olivares is usually in the heart of it. He’s been regularly hitting third, fourth, or fifth, picking up a steal in two of his last three games.
Dylan Floro (MIA)
With AJ Puk going down, Floro has picked up the last three saves in Miami. He’s also got a 2.79 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and needs to be rostered everywhere.
Miguel Castro (ARI)
Andrew Chafin has been used sporadically recently, allowing Castro to take over the ninth inning. He’s got three saves in his last five outings, providing a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in a breakout season.
Wandy Peralta (NYY)
This Yankees situation is ugly, with Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta, and Michael King all getting chances this year. With that said, Peralta has three saves over the last week and has to be the favorite to steal this job altogether.
Feel free to comment here or reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel if you have any questions!