Hello one and all, it’s the off-season but like those douches at your local gym who are constantly drinking protein shakes and talking about their glutes would tell you, ‘there is no off-season’.  If you’re unaware of what we’re trying to do with this post, I humbly ask you go take a look at the Top April Pitchers post from…well, I don’t know when this post is going live so I’ll just say ‘from earlier this off-season’.  THERE IS NO OFF-SEASON!  Ok, I get it Max!  Go back to checking your ass out in the mirror with those spandex on and calm the eff down…now where was I.  Oh yeah, this post!  We’re doing a bit of a look back on the 2014 fantasy baseball season through the lense of #PitchingIsSoDeep and asking ‘but was it really’?  And instead of giving generalities, we’re gonna look at this from an actual numbers perspective.  Did it really pay to pay up for pitching?  Or was it easier to cull your pitching stats from the waiver wire over the course of the year?  We’re using Grey’s top 20 as a basis point for the argument.  I’m using this simply because I couldn’t find a consensus top 20 and because Grey’s mustache is so beautiful…hey Grey?  Yeah, you’re the editor, not the subject changer.  Can we move along from how luscious your lip hair is?  Thanks…so without further ado, let’s take a look back on the top May pitchers from 2014 Fantasy Baseball…

Overview:

So what the heck am I looking at, you might ask yourself.  Well, unfortunately, the names I gave those secondary columns just won’t cut through so I gotta give you some breakdown.  The first column labelled simply ‘$’ is Rudy’s formula for evaluating streamers.  I can’t share the secret formula, though I have been told if used in the kitchen it makes some great baked beans.  The column to its immediate right is what I simply called ‘Minus Wins.’  It’s Rudy’s numbers minus the impact of wins on their value.  Clearly it knocks a few bucks off the top for everyone, but it does go to show whether a guy pitched well or if it was the wins that pushed them through the gate.  The third and final column is ‘Win Value Difference.’  This is simply to show the separation between their value when counting wins vs their inherent value without them.  Some are drastic, some are not and some may be misleading.  Also notice the spreadsheet itself has two different tabs to peruse: ‘May With Wins’ and ‘May W/out Wins.’  I don’t think this needs further explanation.  If it does, please refer to Appendix I-IV.  Hint:  there is no appendix.  PS, if this looks familiar from the April post…it is!  It’s a breakdown of what you’re looking at, I don’t see a reason to recreate the wheel.  Unless the original wheel were inefficient, of course.  Maybe it needs spikes?  YES!  Back to the drawing board we go!  JK, moving along…

First Impressions:

Preseason Top 20 Pitchers For 2014 Fantasy Baseball in top 25 for May with wins: Madison Bumgarner, Julio Teheran, Yu Darvish, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg – 7 total

Preseason Top 20 Pitchers For 2014 Fantasy Baseball in top 25 for May without wins: Madison Bumgarner, Julio Teheran, Yu Darvish, Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, David Price – 7 total

Largest Positive Win Value Difference: Madison Bumgarner (17.8)

Largest Negative Win Value Difference: David Price (-8.3)

Pitchers outside top 25 without win category: Mark Buehrle, Jorge De La Rosa, Drew Pomeranz, Rick Porcello

Pitchers inside top 25 without win category: Mike Leake, David Price, Jason Hammel, Cole Hamels

Not overly obvious free agent pitching pickups from the lists: Mark Buehrle, Jorge De La Rosa, Drew Pomeranz, Mike Leake, Jason Hammel, Bronson Arroyo, Dallas Keuchel, Chris Young, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ryan Vogelsong, Tyson Ross – 11 total

Second Impressions:

Corey Kluber – I almost put him under the ‘not overly obvious’ section but it’s clear you all read my sleeper post on him and drafted him in every RCL this year.  Because I’m too lazy, I won’t go find the link but resident RCL expert VinWins dug up an interesting RCL piece on the Klub: ‘he was drafted in 83 of 84 RCLs and held in 54’.  So basically, we here at Razzball rule cuz we know what’s up.  Self back pats all around!  Oh and Corey Kluber is awesome and I want to have his babies.  Moving along…

Mark Buehrle – There were talks of Mark for Cy Young.  I’m not joking. This has zero fantasy relevance, obviously, but felt it was a worthy note.  Unless, of course, you use ESPN news as a starting point for how to evaluate your fantasy team.  I’m sure Skip Bayless started this.

Dallas Keuchel – After a better March/April split, actually sneaks into the May rankings thanks to an ERA of 2.14 and great control: 3.61 GB/FB rate and a miniscule 1.36 BB/9.  Sadly, his K/9 was only 6.60 which was his second best K/9 ratio by month on the year.  I think you can safely file him under the Rick Porcello portion of your draft day wants in 2015.  One of those ‘good in real life but not for fantasy’ types.

Chris Young – Had six starts in May, showing that volume is just as big a part of the evaluation process as the numbers can be.  Overall, he was a better home pitcher than on the road.  Three of his six starts were at home and another road start was against a Twins team that didn’t hit well at the time (tied for worst wOBA in MLB at .286).  Lucky?  Good?  A mixture of both?  Let’s just say situational and call it good.

Mike Leake – Not even in top 25 in the wins ranking to 13 in the ‘without wins’ category?  Just thought I’d point this out considering even David Price didn’t get that huge of a bump.  I’ll file this under ‘bukkake’: that’s extremely nutty!

Cole Hamels & Hisashi Iwakuma – Loved seeing these two sneaking into each top 25.  You don’t have to nail all the sleeper pitchers, sometimes just getting a known product at a discount helps.

Injuries – Clayton Kershaw and Jose Fernandez, you were missed.  As I eluded to in the Top April Pitchers post, I’m not using injury as a starting point for the #PitchingIsSoDeep argument so I’m merely pointing out that these two probably would’ve been up here without them.

28% – The amount of the top 20 pitchers in the top 25 for the month of May.  Add this up with April’s stats and we’re sitting at 27%.  Don’t ask me how I got that number, the math is still too easy.  In essence, nearly 75% of the pitching that gave a top 25 performance through the first two months of the season could’ve been drafted late or even picked up from the FA pool.  The Justin Verlander drafters of the world weep with this news.

Aftermath:

Some of the season long trends became more cemented this month – like Johnny Cueto being Cy Young worthy and Masahiro Tanaka being a draft day steal – while some of the typical monthly whims of the fickle fantasy world held.  Bronson Arroyo?  Really?  In the end, for the month of May, there were eleven of the 50 overall that could’ve reasonably been streamed.  When you parse out the duplication from both lists, the percentage shrinks.  That’s kind of a big deal and even if you keep it at eleven out of 50, that’s 22%.  Your median of the top 20 pitchers in the top 25 so far from month to month is 27%.  Not to overly simplify, but the trend does suggest that your FA pool is just less than 5% more likely to produce a top 20 pitcher than your top 20 pitcher that you drafted.  Don’t get mad, the process isn’t done.  #PitchingIsSoDeep could be a mirage.  Stay tuned for June’s numbers for your vengeance if you’re team #DraftPitchersHigh…or at least to find out how wrong you are.  OH DID I SAY THAT OUT LOUD.  I’m kidding, I’m rolling with the punches here and letting the numbers do the talking.  I haven’t even looked under the hood of June, honestly.  Mainly cuz May had bigger tits.  Wait, what?  Till we meet again…

  1. PK says:
    (link)

    I almost forgot about the Buehrle-being-good chatter. What a joke.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      I’m still laughing, honestly

  2. Birdmann says:
    (link)

    I am going to” call the eff down” and enjoy my Friday. Thanks for the read and the data.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Curses! And fixed! Thanks for the catch.

      • Birdmann says:
        (link)

        @Sky: Noooo I have been using it all day, didn’t point it out to criticize, I just have never seen a mistake before in your writing. I have been telling my students all day… I need you to “call down” when they are making to much noise. They asked me where that comes from I told them the Sky.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Haha, you clearly haven’t read much of my stuff! And btw, that is officially awesome; I’ll wear it like a badge of honor to be quoted that way. What grade do you teach?

          • Birdmann says:
            (link)

            @Sky: Fifth

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              That’s the perfect age where they are young enough to not require a coccoon (but sadly can’t grow one) while old enough to not poop their pants. Good on you!

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Sky: careful with this one

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Oh and no criticism taken. You didn’t present it that way at all.

  3. gareth says:
    (link)

    Seems like mark buerle and Aaron harang had a “how long is this shizz gonna last” competition for a while there.

    The highlights of last season for me as an Indians fan were Brantley (he just won the silver slugger! ) and Corey kluber. It was a real privilege to be at the ballpark watching these guys work.

    Great preseason calls by Grey and Sky on these two. I’m guessing alot of fantasy teams were very competitive if they had both of them all year. They were real difference makers based on ADP last year. Sadly, both guys will be expensive next season and we may even see a little regression.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      @gareth: They both hit peaks, probably. Doesn’t mean 18/18 and .295 hurts but I don’t see Kluber sliding all that much. He’ll be a top 5 SP type without injuries, IMHO.

  4. gareth says:
    (link)

    I’m curious,

    Who’d be your Brantley and kluber versions of sleepers in 2015?

    So basically drafting a 20/20 guy who hits .320 and a cy young worthy starter who leads the league in k’s, in the late rounds in the draft. Piece of cake!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      @gareth: haha, haven’t really dug into next season much yet. I’m mostly in football mode right now.

  5. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    you really have an affinity for baked beans, that might explain you gas issues.

    And here I thought Umbaldo sucked all year, I must never acknowledge him when good because he is dead to me.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      @J-FOH: ha, are you referencing April’s post about the baked beans?

      Even when he’s good, he’s not that good so take solace.

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Sky: I know I’ve read about you and your baked beans before. I also have read a lot about your gas issues. Just making the connection. I too am guilty of loving the beans, not so much the baked beans, but any kind of well made beans from the latino culture.

        I never owned Umbaldo, just never bought hi being good. I hate the phonies…unless they are on my team and being phony.

        I saw you will be having legal weed in Oregon, must be crazy to think people will be smoking weed all over the place….wait, they already do that. I would be curious to see if there is a spike in the transient hippy population once it’s legal

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Ha, maybe you’re reading into it too much. I hate baked beans; too sweet. I was making more of a reference to that old baked beans commercial with the dog and the secret formula. I could look at a can of beans and fart. I got some weird gut flora.

          Ubaldo was Tim Lincecum good. Those guys are fun until the MPH starts to fade. Then they’re no bueno. I find them akin to great athletes in sports like basketball where once their athleticism wears off, you realize they’re just not that good at their sport. Dwight Howard is gonna be one of those guys. He’ll dive right off the career cliff when it hits, too.

          Hard to get a spike when you’re already sitting at 100%. They were building dispensaries while the bill was being passed. It was just a matter of time.

          • Birdmann says:
            (link)

            @Sky: All this beans at lunch time makes me wish I had some and reminds me of one of favorite little tunes
            Beans, beans,
            the magical fruit,
            the more you eat,
            the more you toot,
            the more you toot,
            the better you feel,
            so let eat beans for every meal.

            Beans are a fruit:
            The other parts of plants are considered vegetables. These include the stems, leaves and roots — and even the flower bud. The following are technically fruits: avocado, beans, peapods, corn kernels, cucumbers, grains, nuts, olives, peppers, pumpkin, squash, sunflower seeds and tomatoes.

            • Birdmann says:
              (link)

              @Birdmann: That is a referance from the Mayo Clinics website. Doing a unit on plants this week and next, sorry.

              • Birdmann says:
                (link)

                @Birdmann: reference sorry

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              Fruit of the Legume…i wonder if that’s where Fruit of the Loom came from?

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Sky: have you ever been to a tent city on weed? isn’t that the only way

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              Classic

          • goodfold2 says:
            (link)

            @Sky: and there’s no reason why baked beans need sugar either, they’re just beans cooked a certain way, with sugar thrown in. we ain’t kids here food packing companies. remember back when it was completely true to say that if howard could just learn to shoot free throws he’d be MVP every year, it wasn’t that long ago. Having been a decent basketball player till about high school age, i always find it completely ridiculous that professional athletes can’t make free throws. it’s like a hockey player not being able to shoot the puck in an empty net from center ice (not quite that easy, but it’s close if you, i don’t know, practice it a lot)

  6. gareth says:
    (link)

    I agree that American baked beans are too sweet. All that sugar, molasses and bacon.

    I grew up on Heinz baked beans on the uk. They’re proper beans to me.

    • Birdmann says:
      (link)

      @gareth: I have seen those in the British section at Fresh and Easy, are they good?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      I haven’t tried so I don’t have a huge take on it but heinz is ketchup, no? Ketchup is largely just sugar. Unless you’re talking about something outside the US. Maybe it’s better beyond our borders.

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Sky: Heinz beans are nasty. You could say they are very British….bland and boring. Don’t waste your money. Canned baked beans are usually too sweet. I prefer Ranch beans, they have great flavor and go well with lots of different meats. Especially a steak. http://c3.soap.com/images/products/p/khr/khr-402c_1z.jpg

        But making a simple pot of beans is always the best.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Yeah, Holly has made a crockpot of beans from time to time. They’re great that way. I’m a black bean fan myself.

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Sky: Black are delicious if made right, I used to get these mexican white beans at some family parties but I can’t recall the name. So good.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              Oooh, now I’ve gotta research that.

  7. gareth says:
    (link)

    I feel this is appropriate:

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Well if the reference is Baked Beans, why stop just short of the Rabbit Hole, Gareth. Just fall in:

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Sky: I jumped down the hole and ended up here, around the 1:20 mark but the whole is worth it

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          I know that you know that I know this song.

          The best line is about night class and getting a B in Spanish

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Sky: I’m so glad you caught that.

            I can’t believe my parents would let us rent cheech and chong all the time when I was 9.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              I can’t remember when or how I watched all the Cheech and Chong movies but I’m pretty sure I’ve seen them all at this point and well before I turned 12 or 13.

      • de nachos says:
        (link)

        @Sky: The Whitest Kids U’Know have a semi-disturbing baked beans bit. As in, if you have a semi when you start watching, the video will disturb it. But I won’t post the link because it has +200,000 views. Anything over 50K hits isn’t Sky-worthy.

        • J-FOH says:
          (link)

          @de nachos: I thought you were the whitest kid I know? no wait, that’s Gareth

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Did you just call me a youtube hipster?

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Sky: thats pretty harsh, I would never put sky and hipster in the same sentence

        • goodfold2 says:
          (link)

          @de nachos: almost as weird as Timmy Dance!

  8. Mandy says:
    (link)

    It’d be interesting to know how reliably good the top 20 hitters end up being vs. the top 20 pitchers, right?

    Also, wouldn’t it make sense to look at something like this over a 3 year period (or so) to remove some of the small-sample noise? Thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      @Mandy: If we had but world enough and time, I’d be all over it. Like I said, this is more exploratory, not a search to be concrete at this time. I am simply looking back on 2014 as a starting point. If this series proves interesting, I could possibly pick it up in 2015 and also look into hitters but as it is, I do this for enjoyment purposes and can’t promise I have the time to do that much leg work. These posts have plenty of time wrapped into them as they are.

      And thanks for reading! Hopefully this is just the start.

  9. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    You have showed to be quite the expert in the music of the 90’s. On the “rock” side of things, what were actually some of the decent one hit wonder groups. Someone brought this up and I struggle to think of many that were any good…in hindsight. Feelings at the time can be tainted.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Big Wreck never got their due. Loved those guys.

      Silverchair turned into a good band. But not a good rock band. Good musicians when it was all said and done, though. Diorama is a bit schizo but has some great work on it.

      Sponge went strange but their first two albums were very solid. Funny for a band that had their noise all over the radio that their first album didn’t go that big. I blame their lead single being the worst track on the album.

      Dishwalla was actually a solid band but I don’t know if I’d go so far as to call them a band I really got into.

      The first album by The Verve Pipe was actually good for what it was. Had its hits and misses but a well written album. Always thought ‘Veneer’ really needed a cover. Great harmonies on that album as a whole.

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Sky: you didn’t like plowed? I never got into any of those bands. Speaking of harmonies. Where did they go?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          Thought 16 candles was their first. There’s a band named harmony?

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Sky: dah, my question asking disability reared it’s head. In music, where have all the harmonies gone?

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              Definitely not the feature right now in the music landscape. Not many Alice ‘n’ Chains types.

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Sky: going back to the bands of the 60’s, 70’s and even the 80’s it was a staple of music and now it’s gone like VCR’s. Like Grey, the baby’s mama likes to watch the voice and it befuddles me how many of these people try to sound like the over produced garbage they all listen to. Do they not get how filtered vocals are in todays music?

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
                  (link)

                  Lots of people love big lead vocals. Mainly because most don’t really pay attention to the music itself. It’s why we don’t hear from many of those from the talent shows. They do one thing well but aren’t actually artists.

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: there aren’t a lot of Al Green’s out there.

                    The little one has taken quite an interest in music and I have been putting stuff together for her on my old iPod shuffle. Lot’s of harmonized music and strong females. Currently I have her in phase one of music.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Good times. Music can span generations

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: exactly. Its also one of the greatest ways to induce memories that really touches our emotions. Since it will always be there you will never lose it. Unlike photos in a fire or or a momento, you can’t lose it….and I refuse to raise a hits station only listener. I think that would be bad parenting.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      It is. Just keep her away from Norwegian Black Metal. It’s the antithesis of hits radio…but for good reason.

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: Note to self: Take Meshuggah off phase 7 list.

                    That would be the anti Chicago

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
                      (link)

                      Ha, there are levels to this argument of course.

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Sky: so true, and yet I don’t think the world needs to see us have that. I’ll put it in my things to discuss with sky the net time we talk list

Comments are closed.