Angels starter Andrew Heaney is having an odd year – as if things couldn’t get weird enough this season. He’s got a career low 0.61 HR/9, yet his ERA is up to 5.52. Some of it is due to an inflated 8.8% walk-rate, but he’s also getting hurt by a 60.2 LOB% and a .338 BABIP, both of which should regress in Heaney’s favor. He’s got a ton of upside in this start against the Mariners, who have the fourth-highest K-rate against lefties at 27.3%. I’m ready to sip on some Heaney tonight in GPP tournaments for what should be a fun Friday slate of baseball.
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Zac Gallen, SP: $10,000 – Gallen is straight up untouchable right now, entering tonight with a 2.25 ERA and a 29.4% K-rate. Remarkably, he has yet to give up more than three runs in a start since being called up last year (21 starts in total). He is easily the best option in cash games with a high floor against the Giants, who have a weak .308 wOBA versus righties.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $3,300 – The Cubs are a great stack option tonight as all of their hitters are pretty cheap – Rizzo is the most expensive of the bunch. Reds starter Tyler Mahle has a 4.86 career ERA, so target Rizzo along with Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and Javier Baez. Rizzo and his .357 OBP also works as a fine standalone play.
Ryan Braun, 1B: $2,700 – Braun batted leadoff for the Brewers when they last faced a lefty, so it would be awesome for his value if that happens again. He will see plenty of run-scoring opportunities against Derek Holland, owner of an abysmal 6.50 FIP.
Justin Turner, 3B: $3,200 – Turner is surprisingly affordable considering he’s batting third in the high-powered Dodgers offense, where he can easily rack up runs and RBI. That should be no challenge against Mike Minor, who has a 6.75 ERA with a 2.15 HR/9.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $3,200 – It looks like Lindor is getting back into his groove at the plate, batting .308 over the last two weeks. It’s really hard to imagine an elite talent like Lindor will be this cheap for much longer, so now is the time to buy in.
Raimel Tapia, OF: $3,100 – This is your friendly reminder that the Rockies are back in Coors Field, so any Rockies or Padres hitters can be considered. As a leadoff hitter in the league’s best hitting environment, Tapia will be a popular play.
Eloy Jimenez, OF: $3,500 – Eloy is lighting up the league with a 96th percentile barrel rate and a 91st percentile xwOBA. He is a GPP stud.
Andrew McCutchen, OF: $2,800 – McCutchen’s price reflects his early season struggles and does not match his recent production. He’s batting .286 over the last month and in a nice spot batting leadoff for the Phillies.
Adam Eaton, OF: $2,800 – The Nationals are another stack to consider against the disastrous Red Sox pitching staff in a hitter’s park at Fenway. Eaton is a cheap play batting high in the lineup who you can pair with elite options like Juan Soto or Trea Turner.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There are multiple games to watch out for tonight: Cubs-Reds, Royals-White Sox, and Padres-Rockies have some rain concerns. Keeping track of the weather, as well as any other postponements like we’ve seen over the past two days will be extremely important for this slate.
Doing Lines In Vegas