This is the last day of the rest of our lives we will be able to play regular season fantasy baseball DFS, on a Tuesday, in the year 2020. While that does not seem very significant at all, let’s make it significant. Let’s put in the extra effort. Let’s (Lu)go for the gold. He may not be a world-beater, but at his salary Seth Lugo, P: $7,000, is potentially a great value play in this evening’s FanDuel Main Slate contests. Lugo has a career high 12.1 K/9 this season and is facing a Rays team ranked second worst in the majors in strikeout rate. This start is far from a sure thing, but that may also scare off the crowd, making Lugo a perfect GPP play. His salary also allows us to afford more expensive hitters. Let’s get exposure to the high-variance Lugo and hope the value hits. Just don’t (Lu)go overboard. Want more wordplay and additional DFS picks? In Lu(go) of reading something else (Lu)go further down. This has maybe (Lu)gone too far. Please don’t (Lu)go.
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Caleb Smith, P: $6,900 – He has a better matchup and would be as good an option as Lugo, but his innings pitched per start to this point is a sad face emoji with a single tear streaking down its cheek. We want so badly for him to pitch at least five here, against a Rangers team that is next to last in team wOBA, strikes out a lot, doesn’t draw walks, and is just plain not very good. But we are left with little hope that will happen. Smith is a value play with not much upside, best suited for cash lineups and altogether unplayable in GPP except perhaps a one-off flyer that he does go longer into the game. We’re sayin’ there’s a chance.
Framber Valdez, P: $10,000 – He’s facing a strikeout-prone Mariner’s lineup that also has very little power to make up for it. Valdez has the best chance of any pitcher on the slate for the coveted win and quality start bonuses, which would obviously be key contributors to his value. At his salary we will need to identify a few more hitter value plays, but we’ll see below they are there if we need them (assuming they play).
Stack of Red Sox:
None of the teams in FanDuel Main Slate contests are projected for a high number of runs, so we need to determine which team provides the best opportunity for value, which usually means the team with the highest variance. Tonight that team is the Red Sox. They face Keegan Akin. Which Keegan Akin they will face is anyone’s guess – the one who couldn’t get out of the 1st inning two starts ago, or the one who struck out 17 in 10.3 innings vs the Braves and Yankees without giving up a run over his other two starts this month – the world may never know. Or the world will know tonight. Should the Red Sox put an achin’ on Akin they’ll get to the mediocre Oriole’s bullpen to inflict further damage. This is the goal we are seeking with this stack. Below is the order we’d prefer to roster them, based on expected value:
J.D. Martinez, OF: $3,300
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $3,700
Alex Verdugo, OF: $2,900
Bobby Dalbec, 3B: $2,900
Rafael Devers, 3B: $3,900
Michael Chavis, 2B: $2,700
Christian Arroyo, 2B: $2,600
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: $2,400
Christian Vazquez, C/1B: $2,600
The best of the rest:
Josh Rojas, 2B: $2,200 – If Rojas plays today he is expected to bat leadoff for the Diamondbacks vs. Jordan Lyles and his 7.07 ERA. Having an extra at bat against very hittable pitching is a valuable thing, even for a struggling hitter such as Rojas. We’ll take it.
D.J. Stewart, OF: $2,900 – The all-or-nothing DJ Stewart is a high variance play best suited for GPP, but he’s in a great spot to produce vs a mediocre Nick Pivetta, who is making his first appearance with the Red Sox tonight.
Cedric Mulllins, OF: $2,300 – Mullins should start today vs right-hander Pivetta, and if he leads off we like his value at $2,300. Mullins does a lot of things at a slightly- to well-below-average rate, making the whole better than the sum of the parts would seem. He should be in a good spot to contribute tonight. He is better for cash lineups than GPP due to limited upside.
Freddie Freeman, OF: $4,000 – Freeman is having the best start? full season? what are we calling this? of his career. His stats are leather-bound and smell of rich mahogany. He’s very important. Also important is the pitcher he is facing. Jose Urena. Because he has absolutely crushed Urena in his career. 4 homers, 9 RBI in 26 AB…a freaking 1.577 OPS. Yowza. I feel bad for Urena. Urena a world of hurt.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It’s gonna be a bright (bright), bright sunshiny day. And night. Mostly, actually all…all night. It’s going to be a moon-filled night. Well, it’s a waxing crescent, those moons don’t emit much light. It’ll be a darkish, clear night. No rain in sight. You’ll need a light. It’ll be alright.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Not seeing a great deal of edge here, but look for a low-scoring contest in San Francisco tonight. Will it be lower than the current line of 8.0 runs? I have no idea. But I like the odds of the under at -110.