Nelson Cruz ($4,000) is once again proving his doubters wrong at 40 years old, as he’s got a 161 wRC+ this season. Cruz’s 18 RBI are tied for fourth across baseball, and you should expect more production tonight out of the Twins three-hole. Opposing starter Jakob Junis had a 5.28 ERA last year and Cruz gets to face him in a hitter-friendly environment at home. Invest in Cruz as a standalone play or as part of a Twins stack and cruise to the cash on FanDuel.
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Gerrit Cole, SP: $11,000 – Only Gerrit Cole could run a 29.5% K-rate with a 5.7% walk-rate and have it look bad in comparison to last year. He’s my favorite play out of the high-end pitching options to choose from against a Red Sox lineup that has struck out 29.5% of the time against righties, which is sixth-highest in baseball.
Framber Valdez, SP: $8,600 – Valdez has been dealing though his first three starts, with 19 strikeouts in 17 innings with a 2.04 ERA. He faces the Mariners, who have been abysmal against lefties with a .253 wOBA. Valdez appears to be the best bang for your buck at starting pitcher.
Lance Lynn, SP: $7,000– Call me crazy if you’d like, but I see Lynn as a pitcher who can succeed in Coors Field. He’s only allowed three earned runs in 23 1/3 innings and was great at suppressing homers last year with a 0.91 HR/9. At a low cost and likely low ownership, he’s a perfect contrarian GPP play who could pay off well.
Salvador Perez, C: $2,900– Perez is batting .429 with two homers over the last week and is a rare catcher who can be considered for the 1B/C slot at this low of a price. The Royals rocked Jake Odorizzi the last time they faced him and now get another shot, this time in a hitter’s park.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B: $2,900– The Indians are a tremendous stack option against Ivan Nova, who has a 5.74 ERA with nearly as many walks (7) as strikeouts (8). Hernandez is awfully cheap as a leadoff hitter, and he can be paired with elite options in Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor as well as other discount bats in Carlos Santana and Franmil Reyes.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $2,900– Suarez is slumping hard to start the year, but for a guy who hit 49 home runs last year, it’s tough to worry much about a 20 game sample. Take Suarez at this price against Chad Kuhl, who had a 4.70 FIP in 2019, in an extreme hitter’s park.
Gleyber Torres, SS: $2,700– Torres is another buy-low option who I’m all in on – you can’t ask for a better situation than a weekend against the Red Sox pitching staff. Gleyber is actually striking out less and walking more than he was last year, which is an encouraging sign that things should be turning around quickly.
Nick Solak, OF: $3,600– Every Rangers hitter has high upside tonight against Ryan Castellani, a rookie being thrown into the fire in Coors Field, the league’s top hitting environment. Solak will bat fifth for Texas and has a great skill set for this park – with an 88th percentile xBA and 93rd percentile K%, Solak can spray the ball around and get on base.
Tommy Pham, OF: $2,900 – I’m not ready to accept the Merrill Kelly breakout quite yet, as he’s still got just a 19.7% K-rate and a 4.35 FIP. The Padres lineup is an under-the-radar stack option and Pham will see plenty of run and RBI opportunities batting third if his team pops off.
Michael Conforto, OF: $3,300 – Conforto’s price has risen modestly since last week, but it’s still too low for the season he’s having. Conforto has a .949 OPS and will bat cleanup against rookie Spencer Howard, who is susceptible to imploding in his second career start.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
We have an awesome night where the weather should cooperate. Pirates-Reds could see a delay but I wouldn’t worry about any postponements.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Marlins look enticing at -105 against the Braves, who are without Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies and have Kyle Wright on the mound, who has gotten shelled for a 6.75 ERA this year.
