Hello everyone, and welcome to the weekend! You made it! After a week of working where it seemed as if the clock was moving in hours instead of minutes, sit back, relax, and let’s enjoy America’s Pastime.
For those of you who don’t know me, I am Razzball’s Daily Fantasy Football guy along with Matt Hayes, where I usually break down the entire slate of games from Weeks 1-16. I had lots of fun this season, and much to my delight, some success as well. I write articles that are mostly stats-driven, and while they can be long, I want to not only give you the plays of the day, but “argue” with you, and prove why these guys should find your lineups in Tournaments, H2H’s, 50/50s, or Double-Ups.
Over the course of the past few months or so I have learned a lot about Daily Fantasy Baseball, as I don’t come from a Season-Long Fantasy Baseball background. I listened, I read, and I read some more. Throughout this process, there is one crucial element of Daily Fantasy Baseball that I have learned.
In order to be successful you have to understand which Pitchers to attack for the day, and use Game Theory. What do I mean? A great example came from this past Monday, April 4th, where most of the players out there had one mindset: “Attack Wily Peralta, attack Wily Peralta!” Sure, and it did work out fine, as most of the field was correct with a lot of the Giants batters highly owned on the night. However, what about the sneaky options, the Pitchers who are just as bad, and yet go under the radar? Well what about the Cubbies bats? What about the Dodgers bats? Each team completely destroyed the opposing pitcher, yet you heard nothing about these certain pitchers, it was all Wily Peralta, Wily Peralta, Wily Peralta. Game theory could indicate that the better option was to select the Dodgers, batting behind Clayton Kershaw on the mound (gave up 1 hit).
Sometimes, looking can make the biggest difference.
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Initial Thoughts On The Slate
What a large helping of games to start the weekend! Officially there are 15 games on the docket, however DraftKings has split up the slate into an Early Slate (6 games), All Day (15 games), Turbo (2 games) and a Late slate of games (9 games). Don’t worry, I’m focusing on all of the games, however this is one of the most interesting slates on the year, or so far anyway. In some cases, you have the top-studs from Monday pitching in their second games, and some teams are still rolling with their #5 guys, but in most cases, you are seeing games where the #1 guy is going to be facing the #5 guy. These are great games to target, as we can see they have some high O/U’s in those games. I’ll explain more in the official Weather and Vegas sections, but I do not want any part of either Clayton Kershaw or Madison Bumgarner as they face off against each other tomorrow. These games usually finish 2-1, or 3-0, 3-1, or even 1-0. Because of the low scoring combined with elite pitching, no bats are in play. Also, one stud Pitcher could get the win, and the other stud will likely lose it. It’s easy to say Kershaw will get the win, but Vegas doesn’t think it is set in stone, and neither do I. Again, it is about finding the correct pitchers to pick on, and to get the bats accordingly.
Also, there are some weather concerns. Again, I will provide more down below, however being beaten by David Price on Monday, whenever there are weather concerns, I am very uneasy about it, especially due to the cold front/snow storms in the northeast.
Now, onto the players!
Bartolo Colon, SP: $6,100 – Less than $7k is a steal for Colon on the surface, as Vegas currently has the Mets at -210 favorites at the opening line. However, that’s all that you can really say about the 265-lbs SP today. He doesn’t have a good strikeout rate, and his SIERA is right around the league average. However, he does get an A+ matchup at home (Citi-Field is one of the better Pitcher Parks in all of Baseball), as he was a significantly better pitcher at home last season, and if you take a look at the Phillies lineup, it doesn’t really strike fear in to your opponents.
Chris Sale, SP $12,100 – The preferred cash game option today. I believe he is the smarter and safer pick over Kershaw or Bumgarner. His strikeout rate is absolutely incredible, and draws a plus-sized matchup against Cleveland. Being a LHP and having to face righty’s are not an issue for me, especially because the most dangerous Right-handed batter is Mike Napoli.
Carlos Martinez, SP: $10,000 – A great high-priced option that should draw low-ownership levels. Make no mistake, Martinez is a great option, but I could very much see him drawing low ownership percentages due to Chris Sale, Kershaw, Smyly or even Bumgarner. The Cardinals are good favorites sitting at a -145 line, and against Tehran and the Braves, Martinez should have no difficulties picking up a quality win. He had an excellent Ground Ball Rate, with a .275 wOBA against Righties (4 ATL bats are R’s), and is great on the road. It also helps that Turner Field is a great pitchers park too, ranking #8 for best SP parks.
Vince Velasquez, SP: $6,800 – Yes, he is going against the Mets in a game where Bartolo Colon seems primed to get the win, however this play is a very sneaky GPP option for a couple of reasons. One, he will draw very low ownership %’s because the Mets are favored by so much, however it shouldn’t be a high-scoring game, so if the Mets do win it might be by 2 runs, but Citi Field is one of the, if not the most friendliest Pitchers Parks in all of baseball. However, aside from the top-tier and priced guys, Velasquez has one of the highest K% rates in the MLB, and combined with a low GB%, he’s consistently getting guys out with his stuff.
Salvador Perez, C: $3,400 – Perez draws a favorable matchup against Tommy Milone, who has really struggled to strike guys out at the plate all of last. Well funny enough, because Perez is one of the most disciplined batters at the plate, sporting a 14.8% K%, which is below the league average. Batting out of the 6th-spot, we aren’t looking for HR’s as much as base hits, hoping that there are runners on base when he steps up to bat, which he is more than capable of driving them in.
Derek Norris, C: $4,000 – Due to DraftKings’ “Dymanic Pricing”, Norris’ price increased to 4k due to the Coors matchup. However, if we were watching Yesterdays’ game, plenty of runs were had with a total of 19 runs coming across the plate between the two teams. Norris did okay yesterday (7 pts), but now he could do even better. He doesn’t have much power, but he gets on base a ton (.309 wOBA). Batting out of the 5th-spot, Norris should get opportunities to drive his men in. De La Rosa isn’t as bad as everyone says he is, but judged by the 10.5 O/U vegas has on the game, plenty of runs should be had.
Brian McCann, C: $3,700 – As a general rule, Lefties should always be considered if they play on the Yankees, due to the short wall in Left-Field at Yankee Stadium. However, the game is at Comerica, but McCann is still a solid play. Mike Pelfrey is a great pitcher to target Lefties against, however I would only due it in Tournaments. Pelfrey has struggled to get guys to strikeout, because most of his outs come via Ground-Outs, and he is an excellent GB Pitcher. McCann has sheer power, noted by his terrific ISO. Comerica Park is a pretty good hitter’s park, which helps, but McCann and Co. are not safe enough for cash teams.
Matt Adams, 1B: $3,000 – Adams is a fantastic play in all formats against the Braves and Julio Tehran. A good mid-ranged player who gets on base a good amount, Tehran has flashed some upside, but mostly his bad side all of last year, and for most of the game against the Nationals early this week. Runs will be had in this game against a Pitcher who has a 4.24 SIERA. Adams bats cleanup, and will have some good opportunities to drive some runs in.
Mark Teixeira, 1B: $4,400 – A little pricey, but if you can fit him, I love the stack with McCann and others. Like I previously mentioned, Mike Pelfrey gets his men out via the Ground-Ball, and Ground-Outs. He isn’t known for striking out guys though, so if you have a good power hitter on your team against Pelfrey, you can afford to take risks, as it is likely the batter will at least put the ball in play. I don’t know if you saw the game against the Astros a couple of days ago, but Teixeira still has the power, which makes him a fine Tournament option for today.
Scooter Gennett, 2B: $3,300 – A great value play in a game where a blowout is likely, considering both Pitchers are not very good. Doug Fister’s surface stats are okay, but when you dig deeper, you can tell that he isn’t very good, and struggles to strike guys out. Well Gennett is your typical (close to) leadoff guy, in that he has stealing upside, combined with a great ability to get guys out. Fister doesn’t excel against Lefties, and Gennett is a fine choice.
Danny Espinosa, 2B: $2,800 – Espinosa is a good value play, but risky, so I would stay away in cash games. Through 12 plate appearances so far this season, he’s only mustered 3 hits, 1 run, and 0 RBI’s and HR’s. This has lowered his price to a respectable point where he doesn’t have to hit for the cycle to pay off his price. He does have a good matchup against Tom Koehler, and he did get on base at a decent amount last year. If the weather hold, he’s a good contrarian punt-play, and even a good pivot from the mainstream ‘Nats bats.
Brock Holt, 2B/3B: $3,100 – Brock Holt may be the most underrated player in all of Baseball. He gets on base at a fantastic rate of .322 wOBA, and a terrible ISO, which means he lacks power. However, he may not need to, indicated by his grand slam late last night, which snuck over the Right-Field wall. He draws a good matchup against R.A. Dickey, who gave up 3 runs over 5 innings against the Rays on his first start. This game will be high-scoring, indicated by Vegas, and I love what Holt brings to the table in a very good Red Sox team. Brock also has 3B eligibility.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $4,700 – The chalkiest play today, and for a good reason. Donaldson has been lighting it up so far this season, and lit it up back to last season. Rick Porcello may be paid like an Ace, however, rest assured he is not one. A Blue Jays stack will be the way to go in Cash games, as this game should force Toronto to swing the bats if Dickey gets shelled early.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: $3,800 – Noticing something with the Yankees batters? Yes, A-Rod isn’t a lefty, but still shows great power to find his way in to tournament lineups with McCann and Teixeira. The greatest part about Rodriguez is that after a decent game against Houston on the 7th, his price has actually fallen by $200. Risky, but he has good power that I mentioned could have you sitting well in a tournament. If you skimmed up until this point, read back at why I am targeting power hitters, specifically lefties, in the McCann and Teixeira statements.
Alcides Escobar, SS: $3,800 – Escobar is a great play with Perez and other Royals bats against the weak Tommy Milone. Escobar hasn’t been outstanding thus far into the season, but can we give him some slack due to the fantastic Mets Pitching Staff? Escobar will probably bat leadoff, and thus has stealing potential/upside, and Milone really struggles against righties last year. He isn’t a great chalk play, but a fine option nonetheless. Considering that he is close to the same price point as Trevor Story, he’ll be greatly overlooked.
Trevor Story, SS: $3,900 – I’ll make this short. He’s fantastic, and everyone knows it. A fantastic matchup against Drew Pomeranz, and it’s played in Coors Field of all places. Fantastic in cash, fade at your own will in Tournaments, and pure chalk today.
Carlos Beltran, OF: $3,700 – Noticing something with the Yankees players? I love them against Mike Pelfrey, that’s what, and I expect them to plate some runs. Lefties against Pelfrey are the way to go, so one should point out that I should have selected Jacoby Ellsbury, or Brett Gardner, as both are lefties, and both are high in the order. However, Beltran is cheaper than the pair, and draws a significant advantage: power. Not only did he have a .190 ISO last season, the biggest stat in my mind is the fact that Beltran is slugging .467 against RHP’s who consistently use the fastball. Pelfrey? Uses the fastball 73.2% of the time, compared to his other pitches, which he uses close to 7-11% of the time.
Bryce Harper, OF: $4,900 – Yes, he is pricey, and yes, he will bring high ownership levels with him, but the 50% of players who don’t select Harper today will be the ones without a multi-HR upside guy in their lineup. Harper has the platoon advantage against a very weak pitcher in Tom Koehler, and that’s all you should act upon.
Randal Grichuck, OF: $3,300 – Again, another St. Louis bat to target against the weak Julio Tehran. Another stat that stands out to me, similar to Beltran, is that Grichuk is slugging .610 and hitting .325 against other middle-tier righties in the last two seasons, and Tehran fits that description. Grichuck is should be batting 6th in the order, with ample opportunities to drive in guys.
Michael Saunders, OF: $3,400 – The great thing about Saunders is, is that he is severely under-priced in comparison to the other Toronto Bats, yet he is batting 6th, so that could indicate he’ll have great opportunities to drive in the other, and higher-owned 4k+ guys above him. He draws a great matchup with the struggling Rick Porcello, and Saunders has been slugging .497 against righties with low-to-okay strikeout rates like Porcello in the last two years. Porcello also doesn’t do so hot against lefties either.
Doing Lines in Vegas
The Colorado-San Diego game should be the one to attack, but with a healthy 15-game slate, it shouldn’t be the only one to attack. However, you can’t deny that it’s in Coors, Trevor Story is playing, and Vegas has the game at a total O/U of 10.5. I didn’t mention many above, but a game I love more than the COL-SD game is the Toronto-Boston game. It’s in a great park for hitters, both pitchers are not ones that strike fear into opposing bats, and Vegas has it as a total of 9 O/U, which deems well for Boston and Toronto bats. Finally, he isn’t usually a pitcher to target and hope to win money off of, but you cannot deny that Bartolo Colon and the Mets having a -210 Line against the Nationals. Cash? Yes. Tournaments? Sure! He’s very inexpensive.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The weather sucks today, and that sucks. Many games have the potential to be postponed, or canceled, and that is not good. Not one single bit, because most of the games that are in question are great ones to attack.
Weather has been a fickle thus far in 2016. Games have been canceled and delayed, so any weather news is very important to us. I am very nervous about the SFG-LAD game at AT&T Park, because there is a 71% chance of rain at first pitch, and to most of us, we can’t afford to have Kershaw or MadBum starting to pitch, and then stopping, and then starting again, and then abruptly stopping or having the game being rescheduled. I would caution, and definitely monitor. The same goes for the Washington-Miami game. The weather is looking pretty ugly, and it makes me nervous. Yes, I believe Tom Koehler is a great pitcher to pick on, but I won’t matter if they don’t play. Same goes with the Mets-Phillies game. I love, love, love Bartolo Colon, but it won’t matter if they don’t play. Please, please monitor up until gametime. A lot can change between 9am and 7pm.
I know it was long, but I hope you gained some insight on why I chose these players, and maybe even the guidelines for how to select a good player, and what to look for.
Again, baseball should be very enjoyable, so wherever you may be this weekend, enjoy it, and most of all, good luck! I hope to see you at the top of the Tournaments come Saturday night.
You Can Follow Zach on Twitter @ohuhave12
