Hey everyone and welcome to Sunday!
Remember me? It’s Zach! Your good ol’… Zach. Anyways, I have been gone since the 20th, and I got back last Sunday, on a really awesome trip to Alaska. But alas(ka), I have not written in quite a while and it is good to be back! Huge, huge thanks to the main men Teddy Heater and Gern for not missing a beat and providing some great coverage of the Sunday’s that I missed. Tip of the cap to you fellas. So where are we for today?
We have 3 pitchers taking the mound for us today that are $10k+ on DraftKings: Carlos Carrasco, John Lackey, and David Price, with Carrasco being the most expensive at $11.6k. And he’s who we’ll start of this lovely Sunday with.
New to DraftKings? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday July 11th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! Wanna know what the best part is about signing up with us? The free subscription for the rest of the season to our DFSBot, that’s what! For details on the how to, please visit our Razzball Subscriptions page.
Carlos Carrasco, SP: $11,600 – Will you pay that much for Carrasco? You wouldn’t hear me complaining. Out of all of the top-tier SP’s set to take the mound for today, Carrasco seems poised to go the longest, and the most likeliest to rack up a multi-K performance. According to Vegas however, there are other pitching options that safer to collect a W than Carrasco, with Price being $1.6k cheaper with a -225 ML. However, I would prefer Carrasco over Price, even if it meant that I had to spend a little more than I would want to. First off, Price has not been as reliable as we would want a top-tier ace to be, especially against the Rays, who he has a 6.52 ERA against and since the beginning of the season, has given up at least one homer and 4 earned runs against his former team. Meanwhile, Carrasco has the highest K-rate of any pitcher today with a wicked 28.4 K%, the lowest SIERA today with a 2.93, and a 6.1% BB-rate. He might not be the best bet in our Cash games, but I’m willing to pull the trigger on him in our Tournaments.
David Price, SP: $10,000 – I know what I just got done saying about Price when I was just writing up Carlos Carrasco, but it still doesn’t take away from the fact that Price is one of the safest and sure bets to have a good outing today. He’ll take the hill against Jake Odorizzi and the Tampa Bay Rays, and should have no problem pitching well, especially with a cushion and run support. Price comes into today as one of Vegas’ most favorited SP’s, with a ML of -225. Not only that, but Price should get a nice matchup, as the Rays aren’t that neat against LHP’s, owning a 23.9% K-rate against them. In addition to this, Price has still been a very quality pitcher with a 3.29 SIERA, 25.8% K-rate, and a very nice BB-rate of only 5.3%. He makes for the #1 pitching option in cash.
Gio Gonzalez, SP: $7,700 – Gonzalez is not favorited today, yet that doesn’t matter in my eyes. He’ll draw a nice matchup against the very banged-up Mets, who also just recently lost OF Yoenis Cespedes. But there’s hope and upside to starting Gonzalez. He comes at a nice price of only $7.7k, and can go very well as your #2 option. Also, not only does Gonzalez have a fair K-rate of 22.7%, the New York Mets as a team do not fair well against southpaws, owning a 24.8% K-rate against them. Finally, here’s a cool fact- Gonzalez is one of four pitchers to K batter per nine and allow fewer than 15 home runs. The other three? Jose Fernandez, Jake Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw.
James Shields, SP: $6,100 – I wouldn’t be over the moon if you wanted to roster Shields, but if you really had to have a cheap pitcher because you just couldn’t not roster those high-priced bats, you might as roll with James Yields… I mean, James Shields. We’ve seen this wacky series have Chris Sale turn in one of his worst performances of his major league career, so nothing should be expected, but Shields is a fairly decent play at his current price. He comes into today with a fairly average 4.12 SIERA, and a 22.6 K%, but the real reason why we want Shields is because of the matchup he draws against Atlanta. Not only is he the favorite with a ML of -165, but the Braves own a 20% K-rate and a very weak .281 wOBA against RHP’s thus far in the season. You could do a whole lot better, but you could also do a whole lot worse at only $6.1k.
Matt Wieters, C: $3,600 – The Baltimore Orioles is one of the biggest offenses I want to attack today against the abismal Tim Lincecum. As a whole, Baltimore has been tearing up RHP’s this year to the tune of a .348 wOBA and a .201 ISO, while Lincecum, through 4 games started, has a 4.63 SIERA, close to a 30% Hard-rate, and a 17.6% HR/FB-rate, proving that he has the risk of giving up some dingers. Matt Wieters has done very well for himself individually against RHP’s to the tune of a .194 ISO, a .347 wOBA and a 113 wRC+. Batting towards the middle of the lineup, Wieters should have plenty opportunities to drive some runs in.
Salvador Perez, C: $3,600 – Chris Young has not pitched very well leading up to the ASG break. First off, he has serious blowup potential with a 4.96 SIERA, 27.0% GB-rate, and a 26.0% HR/FB-rate. That’s simply terrible. Meanwhile, the Royals own a .338 wOBA against RHP’s, with Perez doing well himself against RHP’s to the tune of a wicked .231 ISO, .350 wOBA and a 117 wRC+, and just like Wieters, should bat close to the middle of the lineup, with some great opportunities to drive some runs in.
Chris Davis, 1B: $4,800 – Should be the chalk play at the 1B position, and if he isn’t, then that’s even better for us. Like I mentioned with Matt Wieters, we should be all in against Tim Lincecum and the Angels, and Davis is looking like a great candidate to have at least one HR. Like I mentioned above, Lincecum has serious blowup potential marked by his HR/FB-rate and Hard%, and it doesn’t help his case when he’ll have to face Davis, who owns a 14.9% BB-rate, .261 ISO, a .357 wOBA, and a 120 wRC+.
Matt Adams, 1B: $2,700 – A really great punt play, and he won’t cost you much at all. Adams’ price has fallen by $1k, yet he draws a very nice matchup today against Junior Guerra, who owns a 4.42 xFIP, 10.5% BB-rate, and a 36.5 Hard% against lefty bats. Meanwhile, Adams has crushed RHP’s in 2016 to the tune of a .206 ISO, a .327 wOBA and a 103 wRC+. He has had some issues with plate discipline, but it shouldn’t worry us too much, and should even keep ownsership levels fairly low.
Daniel Murphy, 2B: $3,800 – The 2B position doesn’t excite me today, as I think it’s either looking at a guy like Murphy or paying $5.1k for Robinson Cano. However, Murphy is a guy who I can definitely roster purely based on opportunity. Murphy draws a formidable opponent in Steven Matz, a southpaw. Well good news for us, Murphy has found himself doing quite well against LHP’s to the tune of a very low 12.0% K-rate, a .186 ISO, a .357 wOBA and a 122 wRC+. It’s either him or one of the top-tier 2B’s for today.
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF: $5,200 – The #1 chalk play across the board. Despite the past few outings, the Cubbies have been excelling since day 1, and now find themselves facing Jon Niese. The Cubs as a team have crushed southpaws to the tune of a .201 ISO and a .352 wOBA. Meanwhile, not only is Niese one of the more bigger groundball pitchers in the majors, Bryant has torn apart GB pitchers, ranking 3rd in the MLB with a .449 OBP, while Niese has given up 16 homers to righties. It’s looking very good for Bryant.
Danny Valencia, 3B: $3,400 – Not only does Valencia have the platoon advantage today against SP Dallas Keuchel, he has also done very well for himself against LHP’s this year with a .356 BABIP, a .337 wOBA, and a 112 wRC+. With how much attention and noise Bryant is getting, and for good reason, Valencia should really fly under the radar for today.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $3,900 – We have seen the Indians completely tear up the New York Yankees, and I think it should continue today, especially if/when Carlos Carrasco shuts down the Yankees bats. Lindor not only gets the platoon advantage once again against Masahiro Tanaka, he has done well against RHP’s with a 10.1% BB-rate, a 12.5% K-rate, a .350 wOBa, and a 118 wRC+.
Matt Holliday, OF: $2,800 – Extreme value. I already touched on the Cardinals with Matt Adams, and the same applies with Holliday. Not only is he a great punt play to help get the Kris Bryant’s of your life onto your team, he also draws a great matchup against Junior Guerra with a 16.2% K-rate, a .196 ISO, a .339 wOBA and a 111 wRC+. He should bat in the middle of the lineup, and for only $2.8k, poses himself to get some RBI’s for a very cheap price tag.
Stephen Piscotty, OF: $4,000 – Keeping the theme similar with Holliday and Adams, Piscotty is another name on the list to include in the now formed mini-Cardinals stack, as Piscotty has owned RHP’s to the tune of a .190 ISO, .360 wOBA and a 130 wRC+, to go along with a 39% Hard-rate, and has been doing well for himself lately coming into Sunday as well.
Mark Trumbo, OF: $5,300 – Yes, he has crushed it thus far, and yes, some may not want to pay above $5k for Trumbo, but as I mentioned with Wieters and Chris Davis, the Orioles have absolutely tore up RHP’s this year, and make no exception for Trumbo as well, as he owns a .275 ISO, a .402 wOBA and a 151 wRC+. I wouldn’t bet on Trumbo turning in a big fat “0” for us today.
Doing Lines In Vegas
For people playing the all-day slate or the turbo slate of games, the highest game total of the day will be found once again at Coors Field, with the Phillies-Rockies game coming at 12.0 total runs scored. For everyone else playing the main slate of games, the early slate, the highest totals of the day come at the Detroit-Toronto and Minnesota-Texas games with 10.5 runs are expected to come across the plate. For our SP’s, the highest ML of the day comes with the left arm of David Price, as he and the Red Sox have a ML of -225. Some other big favorites according to Vegas are Madison Bumgarner (-240, but will be in the late slate or Turbo one, not the main) Chris Tillman against the Angels (-200), Kenta Maeda against the Padres (-200), and Dallas Keuchel against the Oakland Athletics (-185). All of these pitchers mentioned will be at home as well.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Again, things can definitely change over the course of 12+ hours, but as of right now, there are little to no concerns at all. If you’re Jewish like I am you might worry about the Red Sox-Rays game with a 25% chance of rain, but that’s the worst it can get tonight. Seriously.
