Like Swiss cheese, Chris Archer‘s 2016 pitching performance has holes in it. A few things concern me with Archer’s numbers this season. The main concerning being the 91.2 mph average exit velocity hitters are getting off his pitches. That 91.2 mph puts him in the top 10 highest average exit velocity among qualified starting pitchers. This may be the reason for his 17.5% home run to fly ball ratio, which is 6.4% higher than his career average. Hitters have been doing most of their damage off his fastball. Hitters have averaged a .545 slugging off it this season. However, not is all bad for Archer. His ERA may sit at 4.38 (the lowest it’s been since may), but his xFIP sits at 3.47, which is in line with his 3.54 career average ERA. In his last three starts, he has racked up 25 K while only issuing 3 walks. Walks were an issue for Archer earlier in the season, but over his last 5 starts he has only gave up 6. Archer only has 5 wins on the season which is not good for DFS, but today the Rays are facing off against the Twins. Chris Archer should have a much higher chance at a win as the Twins have the second lowest winning percentage in the entire league. And with that I give you the rest of my Saturday DFS picks…
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Jake Arrieta, SP: $12,100 – After Duffy’s 16 strike out performance his price sky rocketed to $12,600, making Arrieta the second highest priced pitcher today. Duffy may be able to strike out 10 Jays, but they could also take him deep 5 times. I like Arrieta, as he gets the Athletics in their pitcher friendly park.
Matt Boyd, SP: $6,800 – With Cespedes on the DL, the Mets are far less scary to face as a LHP. Newly acquired Met, Jay Bruce is a lefty and should not pose much of a threat. Going in different directions in the second half, the Mets have been cold (3-7) while the Tigers have been hot (9-1). With the Mets 23.3% k rate vs LHP, Boyd’s cheap price and good probability for a Tigers win, I like the value here.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C: $3,600 – This switch hitting catcher will most likely bat from the left side of the plate with Logan Verrett on the mound. Salty has been a better hitter from this side of the plate. The tigers have been hitting and playing well, which should put Salty in good position to collect RBI.
Jason Castro, C: $3,200 – Opposing pitcher Lucas Harrell has been walking batters in his 6 appearances this season. Castro comes in with a 15.3% walk rate. Castro has been batting at the bottom of the lineup, but today gets a RHP and will only cost you $3,200 in a good match-up.
Joey Votto, 1B: $5,000 – Votto was the hottest hitter in July with a 212 wRC+. He also had a 24.8% walk rate which you gotta love.
Steve Pearce, 1B/2B: $4,000 – With lefty Carlos Rodon on the mound, Pearce should be able to find his way into the Orioles lineup. Righties have managed a .901 OPS off Rodon this season, and Pearce has 219 wRC+ vs lefties.
Yangervis Solarte, 2B/3B: $4,300 – Pitching prospect Jake Thompson is getting the call to the majors for the Phillies. In AAA, Thompson had a 2.50 ERA, but only managed a 6.04 K/9. If he is struggling to get out AAA batters, he will have a even harder time getting out batter in the majors.
Trea Turner, 2B/OF: $4,200 – Batting leadoff with 8 stolen bases, Turner has continued his success since being recalled mid-July. He is batting .312 and has been held hitless in 3 games since his return.
Todd Frazier, 3B: $3,400 – I’ll pay $3,400 for a guy with 30 homers on the season.
Zack Cozart, SS: $3,500 – Batting in the first 2 spots, Cozart racked up 28 hits in July. Nova has been rocked this season, as hitters have an average exit velocity of 91.8 mph. Cozart should be able to tack on a few more hits.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $2,900 – Even though he was hit on the hand by a pitch, it hasn’t seemed to affect his hitting. He has hit in both games since his return and may be a sneaky play today.
Shin-soo Choo, OF: $4,300 – Fister has been struggling with LHB this season. Opposing lefties has averaged an .854 OPS. Not only does Choo bat left, but he has also done well vs Fister in his Career. Choo has batted .323 with a .957 OPS in 32 PA.
Joc Pederson, OF: $4,100 – Eduardo Rodriguez has gave up homers in 8 of 10 starts this season. Joc has been hot as of late and has dominated LHP all season. He has a 1.205 OPS over his last 10 and averaged 10.5 fantasy points over that span.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
She looks like a nice night for ball. The only potential issues come in the afternoon during the early slate at Yankee Stadium. If you are planing to get a lineup in, make sure to check the weather closer to game time.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There is no such thing as a sure thing in baseball, but Strasburg vs Cain is pretty close. Vegas has the Nationals at -240. With Arrieta on the mound, the Cubs roll in to Oakland with a -200 favorite. Vegas agrees with my Matt Boyd pick, as the Tigers are next highest at -150. Coors … 11.5 total as per. Corbin and Garza take the mound and that means runs. That ARI/MIL game has a 9.5 total. NYM/DET also have a 9.5 total. TEX/HOU and BAL/CHW are right behind with totals of 9. It seems like there will be plenty of runs to go around this Saturday.