I’m going to introduce you to a word: chalk. No, not the kind you used to write ‘I will not depants Sally in front of the auditorium full of parents during the Winter Christmas Pageant’ 100 times. I’m here to talk about the DFS slang borrowed from the betting world. Here, chalk means the favorite or best play of the day. For example, we all know to greet each other with ‘Happy Harvey Day’ in the comments, but do you really need me to tell you he’s good? Do you need that to be my opening post to you? There’s your chalk. He’s one of the best pitchers in the league and on a very short slate, he literally jumps off the pitching page when you look at the mere 12 on there. With that said, let’s not waste words on what we already know, let’s talk about something unknown: The B-52’s were actually a good band. Subjective, you say. Well, let’s say it differently then: in the small world of New Wave, they held their own. Let’s consider this New Wave Monday with that in mind and consider Harvey The Talking Heads while we decide to Rock Lobstein. I’m not going to talk up Kyle Lobstein too much. He in and of himself is just an average MLB pitcher, but here’s what I will talk about: The Brewers. So far on the year, the team has a wRC+ of 55 against LHP, good for second to last in the league. Factor in the 26% K rate against southies, regulars Segura and Lucroy on the DL, not to mention Gomez being beaned in the head on Sunday and likely out himself…well, the stars couldn’t align more for Kyle. Sometimes you don’t have to be the best play of the day to be a good choice. So let’s Rock Lobstein together and look on to what other hot takes I have on the Monday DK slate…
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Mike Fiers, SP: $8,600 – I told you above I wasn’t gonna talk chalk. You believe me now? He’s the fourth most expensive and heading into what looks like a bad matchup. That said, looking at his splits, home has done him no favors so far and he’s been really hard on right handers both last year and this. Given the Tigers’ overstock of big righty bats, it might be time to light your lineup on Fiers.
Rubby De La Rosa, SP: $6,900 – I’m admittedly smitten with Rubby as I wrote my Rubby De La Rosa Sleeper post this off-season for your viewing. Though the surface stats ain’t great, the xFIP sits at 3.50, the K/9 is 8.59, and given the ballpark and the penchant of the Marlins to K, Ruby of the Rose could be just that and the price makes it easy and nice to get your work done right here.
Drew Pomeranz, SP: $5,900 – This DK game is all about the Ks. If there were ever a team literally built on the three true outcomes MO, it would be the Astros. The Astros rank 6th in team BB%, 1st in HRs and second to last in team K%. Pomeranz could give up 3 or 4 solo shots and still come out golden at this price because 10 Ks isn’t a crazy thing to expect against this team. Please keep in mind, these are all really just GPP plays. On a slate like this, people will be paying up at pitching, I’m just giving the window of opportunity to not follow the lemmings.
Evan Gattis, C/OF: $3,700 – This is a ‘try to eat your own head’ kind of day and I’m not going to fight it. Yes, I just suggested Drew. I also realize Gattis against LHP is usually da bomb dot gov and given the price point, I’m not going to fight the opportunity. Consider this a nod to Jose Altuve and George Springer as well given the southie splits for their career.
Nick Hundley, C: $3,200 – Rocky Mountain Highhhhhhhhhhhhhh, Colorado. If you try and stay cheap on the tools of ignorance front, Hundley at home vs a lefty at this price is too cheap to ignore. So is Wilin Rosario at $3,300 but you can’t roster 2 catchers….oh wait, Rosario has 1B eligibility so my bad! But yeah, don’t do that. Pick one or the other and move on.
Ryan Howard, 1B: $4,500 – It’s a short slate. Normally I don’t mention many hitters in Coors but here we are with a cheap 1B going at Coors who’s a lefty. I don’t care how far below .250 he’s hitting, Coors has a way of elevating hitters above their skill set. DO YOU SEE WHAT I DID THERE.
Lucas Duda, 1B: $3,900 – If you’re trying to save some cheddar for the bigger arms, Lackey has a 5.20 xFIP on the year and some messy numbers in general vs hitters of the left-handed variety. It’s days like these that the Duda abides.
Chase Utley, 2B: $4,000 – Ugh…another player in Coors. I can’t help it, we only got six different venues tonight, folks! Chase has been worse than Howard this year for fantasy value, which is really hard to do. He might be an overlooked Coors commodity if he’s plopped in his usual 3 spot.
Daniel Murphy, 2B: $3,600 – Again, if you wanna avoid the Coors noise, those Lackey splits are enticing.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,200 – I know, I know…just a Coors call, right? Not really. DK has been pushing prices up on studs in Coors, typically, but with Hamels on the mound, they seem inclined to push down the Rockies bats. It might be a trap but 4.2 K is too enticing to pass up on.
Josh Reddick, OF: $4,200 – I don’t know much about McCullers other than 1) Houston has done a good job with ‘Mc’s in the past 2) his first name is Lance and that’s kinda cool and 3) Minute Maid park plays well to lefty bats. Oakland is usually pretty good at scouting the young pups. You want out of the Coors chase, take a look at their lineup and build off of it. This is a not so subtle nod to Stephen Vogt as well.
David Peralta, OF: $3,800 – Arizona has been rotating their outfield pretty extensively so see who they’re rocking today before locking in on this call. I know the park does hitters no favors and most wouldn’t call this a game to target. In many respects I agree with them but on the year, Dan Haren owns a 2.38 HR/9 against LHHs. No, those splits haven’t carried to home yet but overall, it’s the weaker side of the equation for Dan. If we’re being real, Dan is fairly safe for cash games if you can’t afford two big arms (hint: you can) but the lefty bats should have some fun today. Consider this a nod to Ender Inciarte as well.
Grady Sizemore, OF: $3,100 – Another cheap Coors commodity who is a lefty. #Analysis
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Nothing major on the horizon as long as the weather pattern doesn’t get worse quicker for Colorado. Seriously, I don’t remember the last time the Rockies had this many weather problems. Meanwhile, I’m up in the Pacific Northwest enjoying sunshine for the most part since, like, March. Al Gore was right! About inventing the internet, of course. Not Manbearpig.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Only in a world gone Maddon would Vegas knock a half run off a Coors game while giving a half run to the MIAvsARZ game but that’s exactly what has happened. Dan Haren is still the favorite in that one but the opening line vs current (-144 to -127) might be telling. Runs look like they might be at a premium today so be sure to get in on the action where you can afford it. HOUvsOAK has a healthy 8.5 and gives no major edge to either pitcher. If you wanna avoid the risk of Pomeranz and just stack HOU bats, I can’t argue with ya. Oh and all day call special: Todd Redmond. The Angels don’t have many LHHs worth noting and they ‘boast’ a 72 wRC+ against right handed pitching on the year which is second from the bottom. In fact, this game as a whole wouldn’t surprise me if it went under its 9 O/U total but if I’m betting on a pitcher here, it’d be Todd.