I’m going to introduce you to a word: chalk.  No, not the kind you used to write ‘I will not depants Sally in front of the auditorium full of parents during the Winter Christmas Pageant’ 100 times.  I’m here to talk about the DFS slang borrowed from the betting world.  Here, chalk means the favorite or best play of the day.  For example, we all know to greet each other with ‘Happy Harvey Day’ in the comments, but do you really need me to tell you he’s good?  Do you need that to be my opening post to you?  There’s your chalk.  He’s one of the best pitchers in the league and on a very short slate, he literally jumps off the pitching page when you look at the mere 12 on there.  With that said, let’s not waste words on what we already know, let’s talk about something unknown: The B-52’s were actually a good band.  Subjective, you say.  Well, let’s say it differently then: in the small world of New Wave, they held their own.  Let’s consider this New Wave Monday with that in mind and consider Harvey The Talking Heads while we decide to Rock Lobstein.  I’m not going to talk up Kyle Lobstein too much.  He in and of himself is just an average MLB pitcher, but here’s what I will talk about: The Brewers.  So far on the year, the team has a wRC+ of 55 against LHP, good for second to last in the league.  Factor in the 26% K rate against southies, regulars Segura and Lucroy on the DL, not to mention Gomez being beaned in the head on Sunday and likely out himself…well, the stars couldn’t align more for Kyle.  Sometimes you don’t have to be the best play of the day to be a good choice.  So let’s Rock Lobstein together and look on to what other hot takes I have on the Monday DK slate…

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Mike Fiers, SP: $8,600 – I told you above I wasn’t gonna talk chalk.  You believe me now?  He’s the fourth most expensive and heading into what looks like a bad matchup.  That said, looking at his splits, home has done him no favors so far and he’s been really hard on right handers both last year and this.  Given the Tigers’ overstock of big righty bats, it might be time to light your lineup on Fiers.

Rubby De La Rosa, SP: $6,900 – I’m admittedly smitten with Rubby as I wrote my Rubby De La Rosa Sleeper post this off-season for your viewing.  Though the surface stats ain’t great, the xFIP sits at 3.50, the K/9 is 8.59, and given the ballpark and the penchant of the Marlins to K, Ruby of the Rose could be just that and the price makes it easy and nice to get your work done right here.

Drew Pomeranz, SP: $5,900 – This DK game is all about the Ks.  If there were ever a team literally built on the three true outcomes MO, it would be the Astros.  The Astros rank 6th in team BB%, 1st in HRs and second to last in team K%.  Pomeranz could give up 3 or 4 solo shots and still come out golden at this price because 10 Ks isn’t a crazy thing to expect against this team.  Please keep in mind, these are all really just GPP plays.  On a slate like this, people will be paying up at pitching, I’m just giving the window of opportunity to not follow the lemmings.

Evan Gattis, C/OF: $3,700 – This is a ‘try to eat your own head’ kind of day and I’m not going to fight it.  Yes, I just suggested Drew.  I also realize Gattis against LHP is usually da bomb dot gov and given the price point, I’m not going to fight the opportunity.  Consider this a nod to Jose Altuve and George Springer as well given the southie splits for their career.

Nick Hundley, C: $3,200 – Rocky Mountain Highhhhhhhhhhhhhh, Colorado.  If you try and stay cheap on the tools of ignorance front, Hundley at home vs a lefty at this price is too cheap to ignore.  So is Wilin Rosario at $3,300 but you can’t roster 2 catchers….oh wait, Rosario has 1B eligibility so my bad!  But yeah, don’t do that.  Pick one or the other and move on.

Ryan Howard, 1B: $4,500 – It’s a short slate.  Normally I don’t mention many hitters in Coors but here we are with a cheap 1B going at Coors who’s a lefty.  I don’t care how far below .250 he’s hitting, Coors has a way of elevating hitters above their skill set.  DO YOU SEE WHAT I DID THERE.

Lucas Duda, 1B: $3,900 – If you’re trying to save some cheddar for the bigger arms, Lackey has a 5.20 xFIP on the year and some messy numbers in general vs hitters of the left-handed variety.  It’s days like these that the Duda abides.

Chase Utley, 2B: $4,000 – Ugh…another player in Coors.  I can’t help it, we only got six different venues tonight, folks!  Chase has been worse than Howard this year for fantasy value, which is really hard to do.  He might be an overlooked Coors commodity if he’s plopped in his usual 3 spot.

Daniel Murphy, 2B: $3,600 – Again, if you wanna avoid the Coors noise, those Lackey splits are enticing.

Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,200 – I know, I know…just a Coors call, right?  Not really.  DK has been pushing prices up on studs in Coors, typically, but with Hamels on the mound, they seem inclined to push down the Rockies bats.  It might be a trap but 4.2 K is too enticing to pass up on.

Josh Reddick, OF: $4,200 – I don’t know much about McCullers other than 1) Houston has done a good job with ‘Mc’s in the past 2) his first name is Lance and that’s kinda cool and 3) Minute Maid park plays well to lefty bats.  Oakland is usually pretty good at scouting the young pups.  You want out of the Coors chase, take a look at their lineup and build off of it.  This is a not so subtle nod to Stephen Vogt as well.

David Peralta, OF: $3,800 – Arizona has been rotating their outfield pretty extensively so see who they’re rocking today before locking in on this call.  I know the park does hitters no favors and most wouldn’t call this a game to target.  In many respects I agree with them but on the year, Dan Haren owns a 2.38 HR/9 against LHHs.  No, those splits haven’t carried to home yet but overall, it’s the weaker side of the equation for Dan.  If we’re being real, Dan is fairly safe for cash games if you can’t afford two big arms (hint: you can) but the lefty bats should have some fun today.  Consider this a nod to Ender Inciarte as well.

Grady Sizemore, OF: $3,100 – Another cheap Coors commodity who is a lefty.  #Analysis

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

Nothing major on the horizon as long as the weather pattern doesn’t get worse quicker for Colorado.  Seriously, I don’t remember the last time the Rockies had this many weather problems.  Meanwhile, I’m up in the Pacific Northwest enjoying sunshine for the most part since, like, March.  Al Gore was right!  About inventing the internet, of course.  Not Manbearpig.

Doing Lines In Vegas

Only in a world gone Maddon would Vegas knock a half run off a Coors game while giving a half run to the MIAvsARZ game but that’s exactly what has happened.  Dan Haren is still the favorite in that one but the opening line vs current (-144 to -127) might be telling.  Runs look like they might be at a premium today so be sure to get in on the action where you can afford it.  HOUvsOAK has a healthy 8.5 and gives no major edge to either pitcher.  If you wanna avoid the risk of Pomeranz and just stack HOU bats, I can’t argue with ya.  Oh and all day call special: Todd Redmond.  The Angels don’t have many LHHs worth noting and they ‘boast’ a 72 wRC+ against right handed pitching on the year which is second from the bottom.  In fact, this game as a whole wouldn’t surprise me if it went under its 9 O/U total but if I’m betting on a pitcher here, it’d be Todd.

 
  1. Pitching Starved says:
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    Manbearpig — awesome reference to Big Al.

  2. TheTinDoor

    TheTinDoor says:
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    Agree that the Brewers are the IDEAL target against right now, but not sure Lobstein can capitalize. What’s best case for him – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, W? That’s putting 20 points as the absolute CEILING. More likely, we’re talking 6IP, 3ER, 3K, no W, or 12 points.

    I think RdlR is the cheap play today over Lobstein. Marlins aren’t scary, Rubby’s K% is double Lobsteins. DK loves those Ks…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I guess we’ll just have to play it out and see. I think home/away plays a bigger factor sometimes than you allow for with this kind of analysis. As much as I love Rubby, stuff like that affects end lines some times. And also, let’s realize your two sentences after your opening one is conjecture. Matchup matters and it can lead to better numbers than we’d normally expect from any given player. Heston wasn’t supposed to strike out 10 Astros but he did because the matchup was right. I wouldn’t make my stance that a player is capped as you did.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        and of course, I just looked and saw Carlos Gomez leading off. Not just that, but Rogers at 1B rather than Lind (whom I expected despite the obvious splits). Might not be the best day to go with Lobstein after all…was really hoping for a bad lineup boost there.

        • TheTinDoor

          TheTinDoor says:
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          @Sky: n=1, but wow! RdlR put up his best start of the year (22.6 FP), and Lobstein finished with the EXACT line I predicted, 6IP, 3ER, 3K, good for 9 FP. To be fair, as you noted, CarGo led off, and homered and doubled in the game.

          Giving you a hard time, of course one game means nothing and I appreciate your daily column. Just had to boast a little after nailing this one :)

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            @TheTinDoor: Totally good, feel free to but chops! But yeah, I was surprised by the lineup they put out there. Actually had a lineup w/Carlos Gomez once I moved off Lobstein. He was a major boost for sure.

            I love Rubby. I’m surprised more runs weren’t scored in that game, though. AZ bats went silent on the wrong day. Would’ve been nice for my NFBC team to get the win!

  3. MattTruss

    MattTruss says:
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    Agree on the B-52s, underrated really. Party band for sure, would’ve been a good one to see live back in the day.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Lots of people just think of Love Shack when you mention them. Doesn’t even scratch the surface of them, really. They had the beach music kitsch going on but there were some punk elements in there. Totally would’ve been a fun band to go see.

      • RotoLance

        RotoLance says:
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        @Sky: I own like 5 Talking Heads albums as well as one by the B-52s so no complaints here. There is a book by Simon Reynolds called ‘Rip It Up and Start Again’ about post-punk that you might be into. So, if you somehow get the time to read it… But I’ll also just say Mission of Burma is my top recommendation for anyone wanting to pursue some arty punk rock music.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @RotoLance:

          That sounds totally awesome. I’m currently taking some online training so my head can’t take any more crammed into it but I might ping you later if I can’t remember the name.

          Not entirely familiar with MoB but the name sounds familiar. I’ll give a listen. So much good music out there, hard to hear it all!

  4. Ron says:
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    lobstein you say hm? im gonna go ahead and make my brewers stack now…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Good luck!

  5. Bull in a Chinese Restaurant says:
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    i also really like older B-52’s stuff. but we aren’t contemporaries of that album above shown. I’m guessing you either had really cool parents, older siblings that got you into them, or like me, you got into it much later.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Bull in a Chinese Restaurant: I’m a music history nerd so I get into different areas based around how they affected later groups that I grew up with. The ebb and flow of music history always intrigues me.

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