That face says it all. It’s the face of a man who’s seen some $hit. Like a DK LU that rostered Carlos Frias for his -18 point implosion. I mean, the scarring just don’t heal. It’s also the face of our humble…oh who am I kidding, braggart lothario Overload Grey Albright. A long time back (in fantasy baseball, 2 years ago really is a long time back), his Royal Stacheness had Erasmo Ramirez pegged as a sleeper and who could blame him? Solid minor league numbers to go along with a great home ballpark with a team that had a good track record of bringing good, young arms along. The stars were aligned and it looked like Erasmo was destined for greatness. And then he started pitching…woof. Everything he throws just dances which is great if he knew where he was throwing it. Erasmo got lit up but not like the way Buckcherry meant it. That’s illegal. Either way, he was chucked aside by the Mariners to the Rays and considered a forgotten man…but if you’ve been paying attention, you’d notice things haven’t been as dire in Tampa for him as they were in Seattle. The Rays seem to be taking this reclamation project over quite well as he currently owns a 50% groundball rate (highest of his albeit short career) and he even has a 31 point DK showing to his credit. At $5,600, you need about 18 points to get your ROI and if the Nats are still without Bryce Harper, I believe you can get that. Now after saying all that, if Harper is in, I’m probably out on this call but even Vegas is giving Erasmo the slight nod in a low scoring pick’em today with -110 and a 7 o/u so there’s some merit to this David Lynch’ian madness. But enough about surrealism, let’s get this going. Here are my other hot takes for today’s DK slate…
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John Lackey, SP: $7,700 – So why am I not talking about the top three pitching options on the day? Hrm, maybe because today’s slate is filled with great pitching plays and you don’t need me to tell you a guy priced near 10K is probably a good get but if you wanna know who my SP1 is for the cash slate, it’s Francisco Liriano. Why over Tanaka? Cuz home > road, bro. But the reason I’m skipping that talk is cuz it was that easy and short and now we gotta talk about our SP2s, ya dig? The Cardinals are a heavy favorite to win today’s game and the run total for this one is sitting at 7 o/u which seems to be a theme for the day (hint: that means a lot of good pitching is expected. Choose wisely). The Muppet may look and sound funny but he can score ya 21-25 DK points without making you sweat.
Trevor May, SP: $6,900 – I know, I just suggested his counterpart. No, I’m not suggesting you double up on this game for your pitching but if you aren’t into Jim Henson’s worst creation, Trevor May I? Yes, I May.
Carlos Rodon, SP: $6,500 – I can almost promise you if people aren’t going Liriano with their SP1 in cash games that their SP2 is going to be Rodon and the stats are hard to ignore. The move to a pitcher-friendly park makes it all the more understandable. If anyone tells you Rodon is a nice tourney option, let them in on this little secret. Speaking of tourney options, my lead was just that and nothing more. What, you rostered him for cash and you’re only read this now and he put up -20 points? Hrm, maybe you should read more than leads…
Wilin Rosario, 1B/C: $3,300 – I’m not all about picking on Keuchel but Rosario against a LHP at this price makes my slinky go dah-doing-doing-doing. Random Eminem references are the best Eminem references. Unless I have left over scratch for Matt Weiters, I’m ready and Wilin.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $5,100 – Trevor Bauer is a great tourney play. There, now you have my blessing to go set money on fire. The Cubs strikeout and Bauer strikes guys out. This is not news. But for as much as we talk about the Cubs and striking out, we don’t seem to talk about their patience at the plate which could play to Bauer’s bad side: a 4.14 BB/9. I expect to see a lefty-heavy LU going today for the Cubs so consider this my thumbs up for guys like Dexter Fowler, Chris Coghlan, and Miguel Montero.
Eric Hosmer, 1B: $4,200 – If you want to price down a little bit at 1B, Miller Park is one of the friendliest ballparks to lefty bats. I’ve been known to stack Lind, Parra, and Gennett when the Brew-crew is at home so I ain’t lyin when I’m talking about these things. Given Lohse’s crazy reverse splits so far, a KC stack isn’t a bad tourney thought.
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B: $2,800 – Admittedly, Logan’s run might be over but he’s not 30 yet so maybe he’ll survive…hrm, that probably went over most of your heads because old but whatevs. Forsythe at this price against a lefty is a gift. Cherish it.
Jace Peterson, 2B/3B: $3,500 – Porcello’s splits are horrid and Jace is coming off a slam and legs day. This could be a delicious second serving.
Maikel Franco, 3B: $4,500 – Fun sidebar: this guy was sitting out in my keeper all season. We have an NA spot. No one wanted him and for good reason: he is a hacker at the plate. That said, he’s hitting and gets the platoon split in a hitter-friendly park. Thankfully I can get in on his goods once in a while. Makes me feel less like an idiot.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,900 – I don’t normally call HRs but when I do, it’s usually from a guy who’s on pace for 14 of them on the year. I should work on that…either way, I think we see a bit of powerball from the Royals and if I need to get cheap at 3B, I’ll take some tasty Moosetacos.
Jose Iglesias, 3B/SS: $3,400 – So, if I’m not paying up for Tulo, I’m looking as cheap as I can get. He won’t have a favorable lineup spot but Detroit is both heavily favored today and in one of the few games with an o/u above 8 at 8.5. Stacks are like locks in a canal: it makes all bats rise. Even if you’re not going with multiple El Tigre bats, you can get away with the sweet crooning of Iglesias.
Mike Trout, OF: $5,700 – The highest priced outfielder on the day is a great play. *Insert your own shocked emoji here*
Joc Pederson, OF: $4,400 – I’m not all about picking on Yovani, per se, but the Rangers ballpark plays nice with lefties and Yovani has been pretty lucky on the year against them. I expect some regression to the mean which means I expect lefty Dodger bats to be mean to YoGa.
David Peralta, OF: $2,900 – Jered Weaver on the road gives up 2.57 HR/9 to left handed hitters. I know, he’s at home. At home he sports a 0.61 HR/9. I am of the mindset that this is some funky wizard joo-joo and that somewhere in the middle of all of this, Peralta hits one out. If you’re looking for low-priced upside, get yourself some DP. No, not that kind of DP. Why did you send me that in a snapchat? MY EYES.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Moisture might be a problem for us today around the league. Currently, the DETvsCIN game looks on the verge of PPD but TBD. Meanwhile, PITvsCWS also has some water in, around, and after game time so be cautious if you’re going with pitchers there and read up before you do.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas has CHCvsCLE as the high o/u on the day at 9.5, at least at opening as they wait for the wind to tell them which way the o/u should blow. Keuchel and Anibal Sanchez both have a -200 line but their over/unders are vastly different (7.5 vs 8.5). Methinks one line believes in the pitcher while the other line believes in the hitters getting the job done. Oddly, the Team-o-nator ain’t as confident in either, saying Wei-Yin Chen is the likeliest home victor on the slate today. GPP play, you say? OK, I can see that in play. And with that unintentional rhyme, I’m out. *drops mic*
