As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.
Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.
Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
That face says it all. It’s the face of a man who’s seen some $hit. Like a DK LU that rostered Carlos Frias for his -18 point implosion. I mean, the scarring just don’t heal. It’s also the face of our humble…oh who am I kidding, braggart lothario Overload Grey Albright. A long time back (in fantasy baseball, 2 years ago really is a long time back), his Royal Stacheness had Erasmo Ramirez pegged as a sleeper and who could blame him? Solid minor league numbers to go along with a great home ballpark with a team that had a good track record of bringing good, young arms along. The stars were aligned and it looked like Erasmo was destined for greatness. And then he started pitching…woof. Everything he throws just dances which is great if he knew where he was throwing it. Erasmo got lit up but not like the way Buckcherry meant it. That’s illegal. Either way, he was chucked aside by the Mariners to the Rays and considered a forgotten man…but if you’ve been paying attention, you’d notice things haven’t been as dire in Tampa for him as they were in Seattle. The Rays seem to be taking this reclamation project over quite well as he currently owns a 50% groundball rate (highest of his albeit short career) and he even has a 31 point DK showing to his credit. At $5,600, you need about 18 points to get your ROI and if the Nats are still without Bryce Harper, I believe you can get that. Now after saying all that, if Harper is in, I’m probably out on this call but even Vegas is giving Erasmo the slight nod in a low scoring pick’em today with -110 and a 7 o/u so there’s some merit to this David Lynch’ian madness. But enough about surrealism, let’s get this going. Here are my other hot takes for today’s DK slate…
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Please, blog, may I have some more?