Hi everyone, I’m Sky the Razzball guy. You might remember me from such hits as ‘Duffy The Cam-Yard K’er‘…I mean it was just last Friday so if you read this site at all and the DK content, I’d hope you caught that. In that piece we looked under the hood at the Orioles and their offense, namely their poor numbers against lefty pitchers and guess what? A week hasn’t changed those numbers. In fact, after getting shut out for 7 innings by Matt Moore who K’d up 9 of them, I’d bet today’s numbers would tell you they’re even worse. That said, we should complete the thought process by taking that peek again and hold the phone cuz you’ll never guess this but…yeah, they still suck against lefties to the tune of a 23% K rate and a meager 85 wRC+. With that, in steps Drew Smyly who himself is coming off an 11 K performance against what was a surging Boston Red Sox offense. Cash? Check. GPP? Double check. I’m gonna have a hard time moving off Drew in any format today so while everyone talks chalk with you today, realize at $9,400 you could be getting the sweeter deal when talking about those 10K+ priced arms. So put a Smyly on your face and move on with me to for the coverage of the rest of this tilt…hrm, reference Zoolander in the title, put a Zoolander pic in the opening, and then don’t actually reference Zoolander? That’s ridiculous, I should be ashamed so let me make up for it. Here’s my Orange Mocha Frappuccino takes for this Friday DK slate…
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 15 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Max Scherzer, SP: $12,100 – If I’m paying up, I actually like most of the arms above 10K but Mad Max has my heart. He went through a rough patch that I was discussing with Rudy (yes, we talk outside of the site). Reality is, he’s still the same pitcher he was in the first half but has had some bad HR/9 numbers. Regression happens, peeps, that’s how this game works. First half his HR/FB ratio was 6.3%, second half, it’s been 19.2%…neither number is really sustainable but the combo has pushed him to a league average 10.3%…not bad for a guy who has a career 9.9% HR/FB ratio. I know this is riveting but I’m gonna guess Max goes underowned because 1) there are other options in his price range people will talk themselves into because of recency bias and 2) the Marlins don’t strike out much. Scherzer doesn’t need charity K’s, my friends, he goes and gets them like a man. Go Mad. Go Max.
Madison Bumgarner, SP: $11,500 – He’s priced as the 4th best pitcher, has the best home ball park of the four going tonight, he’s coming off of a complete game shut out, and he has a brand of under named after him. This man is a God…and he’ll also be the most popular arm on the slate. Fine in cash but I’m not chasing that CGSO tonight.
Rubby de la Rosa, SP: $6,800 – For the GPP crowd, Rubby’s 2.20 HR/9 against lefties is about as ugly as you can get. Thankfully, he gets to pitch in a park that has ranked last for lefty power for the last two years and has been second to last to Petco for the three years prior. In fact, the last time he pitched in San Fran, he went 8, struck out 6 and gave up a goose egg in the run column. While I wouldn’t expect a repeat, at this price he’s worthy of a tourney look.
Adam Morgan, SP: $4,600 – YOLO life. The Barves are one of the worst lineups in baseball and their best hitter is a lefty. Morgan in and of himself is pretty craptacular but in the tourney world, there’s merit here. What type of merit badge would you get for starting him? First Aid. You’re testing Atlanta for signs of life, after all.
Williams Perez, SP: $4,000 – Well what do you know, the Phils suck too. Actually if I am dipping down here and hoping for something, I’m probably going Perez between the two. He’s at home and the last time these two teams squared off, Perez scored 25+ DK points. I rarely roster guys with two last names but I’m willing to make an exception here.
Welington Castillo, C: $2,900 – Wanna GPP swerve? How about rolling with the catcher that has a .281 ISO against lefties? Yeah, the lefty is Madison Bumgarner. That’s what makes it a tourney move, bro. The power potential is great and it just takes one solo shot to make a solo $hit in your pants when you make money from it. Well, at least I hope that last part is a solo. Too much fiber?
John Jaso, C: $2,500 – He’s probably batting lead off which means I’m probably gonna have a hard time moving off him at this price unless a better punt play comes along. How is he batting leadoff with an .817 OPS and still at this price? I blame the nasty dreadlocks. In all, I’ll be looking to punt as I have no love for backstops today.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $4,300 – Um, 4.3K? Look, I’m not suggesting a stack against MadBum here. If you’re going Goldy, you’re not going Welington or probably shouldn’t. But what you should do is realize Paul at this price is silly low when compared to his season numbers. For GPPs, I love Goooooold at this price. Too bad we’re a fiat currency…wait, what?
Justin Morneau, 1B: $3,300 – Unless I find a better pricing to say it, I’m gonna do what I always do: tell you that all bats in Coors are in play and follow it up with the word ‘duh’. Morneau usually bats 5th and will get Ian Kennedy whose flyball profile just doesn’t play well in a park like Coors. Check to see if Dustin Garneau is in the lineup as well if you really want an ‘rneau’ stack.
Mike Napoli, 1B: $3,200 – *Checks to see if Texas is facing a lefty every day. Sees they are today. Inserts Napoli into lineups* Analysis complete. Oh and at this price, people will play Morneau. Enjoy your low owned dong, y’all.
Justin Smoak, 1B: $2,600 – Yeah, I’m spending a lot of time on 1B today. I’m merely doing that to point out there are a lot of good, cheap options so you don’t force your hand at a top-heavy position. Porcello has pitched well since his return from the DL. He also still owns a 1.79 HR/9 ratio against lefties. With them back from an NL park, the DH is back in play and I expect to see Edwin back in his usual role with Smoak getting a shot at starting at 1B against slick Rick. At this price, I think the production potential is high and on a Coors night, it could be a great night to look at Blue Jays in general. Obvious big names are all in play if you can afford them but don’t puff, puff pass on Smoak if he’s in there.
Brian Dozier, 2B: $4,200 – The Twins at home against a lefty is like Ranch smeared on a fried mayo ball for a southerner. At least I think it is. Do fried mayo balls even exist? Not gonna lie, kinda sounds good. I blame my Okie grandma…whatevs, Dozier against a southpaw makes me giddy if I’m not paying down at the keystone position. But back on the Twinkie train, consider this a thumbs up for Miguel Sano as well.
Cory Spangenberg, 2B/3B: $3,000 – Like I said in the Morneau blurb, Coors bat on the cheap. The Spanger (my nickname for him because I own him in the NFBC and cuz I’m cool like that) has been batting 6th against righties of late which is a trend I believe sticks in a park like Colorado has. I didn’t mention him in the plethora of 1Bs but Brett Wallace is also in play at that $2,200 price tag for the same reason but he doesn’t get a nick name…yet.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,800 – Yovani Gallardo has been…not bad. Not great! But…not bad. All that said, Seager still gets the splits advantage against him to go with a ballpark boost, bats second, and has home run pop.
Jean Segura, SS: $3,800 – It seems every time I’m doing a write up, the Brewers are facing a lefty which means Segura is batting leadoff. Obviously not a punt play but he has speed and gap power. I wouldn’t put a huge amount into a Brewers stack but Domingo Santana, Khris Davis, and Ryan Braun are intriguing options with a rookie on the mound with poor AAA numbers facing them and a likely bullpen game overall.
Jay Bruce, OF: $3,900 – Bruce is a hard sell at this point so rather than try to sell him, I’ll sell the situation. He’s facing a rookie pitcher in a hitter-friendly park where he has the platoon advantage. If you can’t afford Joey Votto in this plum matchup but still want some action in on it, set the Bruce loose.
Corey Dickerson, OF: $3,600 – The price suppression is unwarranted at this point. See Dickerson’s price. See Dickerson play. See Dickerson in your lineup.
Justin Ruggiano, OF: $2,600 – Nothing sexy about this, just paying attention to recent lineups. Ruggy (another NFBC nickname; you wouldn’t think it from the name drops but that team is in first…go me!) has been batting leadoff of late against lefties. If that trend continues, you’ll continue to have a cheap OF option. Win win!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Overall, nothing major to report other than potential rain problems could develop in the DETvsKC tilt but since I didn’t talk anything about players from there, we don’t care, right?
Doing Lines In Vegas
With a night full of pricey arms, it should come as no surprise there are a lot of high odds favorites. Madison Bumgarner takes the cake at -220 at home vs the Dbacks. Yet another reason he’ll be high owned tonight and an easy fade for tourneys, IMHO. Behind him you have Zack Greinke and company sitting pretty at -200 who is oddly tied with Houston’s Mike Fiers for the night. Fiers is just a guy I don’t roster. I’ll take the chance on missing his no-hitter when the rest of the time his ceiling is fairly capped, thank you. Mad Max being only a -140 favorite at home makes him look even better as a low-owned option. I didn’t talk about his mound mate for the night Jose Fernandez simply because I don’t know how far into the game he pitches. He went 5 last time out but only threw 69 pitches. Again, I don’t want my pitcher’s ceiling capped but he could be that tourney play I just don’t have my eye on, I’ll admit. All the games you’d expect to be low scoring are as SFvsARI, WASvsMIA, and LADvsPIT all come in with an o/u of 6.5. On the flip side, water is wet, grass is green (unless you don’t put wet water on said green grass, then it’s yellow…sorry, side bar), and the Coors bats own the high o/u of the night at 11. As per usual, this typically makes people miss that other expectant high scoring affairs like TORvsBOS at 9.5 as well as the TEXvsSEA and MINvsLAA tilts at 9 apiece are going on. Coors nights are tourney nights in my book and its because they lead to such low ownership on great situations. Take advantage.