Greetings y’all, it is finally here! You use Greek in the title and then go hillbilly in the lead paragraph? Look, my ghost writers are very diverse in their backgrounds, m’kay? Gotta let them wax poetic as they want to. Or wax period, honestly. Could use some help with my eyebrows right now if we’re being honest. It’s the one thing me and The Brow have in common. Oh no, a basketball joke on a baseball blog; worlds are colliding! Anyways, opening day is here and that’s both a blessing and a curse in the world of DraftKings. You see, on the one hand, the season is starting and we’re excited. On the other hand, all that data mining you did last year to aid your own ascent up your tourney rankings? Might as well grab the paint thinner and start the Mona Lisa over because plenty of things don’t matter any more. We now have to aggregate some data from over the years and weigh some things out, carry the two, multiply by the square root of an isosceles triangle…OR you can get your subscription to the DFSBot started today and take a look at some of the data I’ll be looking at for today’s slate. How’s that for a god from the machine? But more to the point, it’s opening day and time for some fun. There’s the $100K Moonshot Tourney out there as well as a free $15K Tourney if you’re new to DK and sign up through us. But how do I do such a thing, you ask? Click on the underlined ‘DraftKings’ in this opening paragraph. No, I won’t tell you where it is. Treat it like this is a game of ‘Where’s Waldo’. PS, I referenced a child’s game because this search shouldn’t take that long…I’m still waiting…alright, just gonna have to leave you laggards behind because we have to get this show on the road. Here’s my red hot takes for the Opening Day 2015 Fantasy Baseball DK slate…
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Max Scherzer/Corey Kluber, SP: $11,500/$9,800 – I’m throwing this out there because these guys are probably my one-two punch for cash games today. I called both Cy Young winners in our Razzball Picks so why would I want has beens like Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez on opening day? PFFT I say! Houston has improved but has their K% as a team? Doubtful. What about the New York Mess? Well, I do think they are truly better but you know Scherzer still prolly K’ing 12 of’um. They’re priced just in the range of not too high and not too low so you can still build a LU with them if you’re frugal in the right places and don’t worry, we’ll get there.
Drew Hutchison, SP: $7,200 – If you’ve followed any of my drafts, or if you follow me on twitter, or even in the comments…well, first off stop following me, this is getting to restraining order levels. Secondly, you’d know that I’m madly, truly, deeply in love with the Hutch this year. Admittedly, this is not the best place to start the young pup but I own him in four leagues and will be doing so myself so I want you all to suffer with me….ok, really it’s just a contrarian play. His K/9 was healthy last year, saw an uptick in the second half, and he’s had a strong spring showing. What could possibly go wrong?
Bartolo Colon, SP: $6,800 – What do Michael Taylor, Tyler Moore, and Danny Espinosa have in common? They’re all guys the Nats wish they weren’t starting but have to due to injuries. Obviously Washington still has plenty of good bats but do you really think they wanna bat Yunel Escobar in the two spot? Rhetorical. I dare say this lineup went from being the scary Nationals to Natty Ice in a hurry. Consider Bartolo a tourney play only.
Ryan Hanigan, C: $2,700 – Yeah, I’m probably punting catcher opening day in my cash games. I wouldn’t expect much from Hanigan but he makes it easier to price in other guys that will actually, you know, DO something. If Ryan bestows upon me a single, I’ll consider this a plus play. Consider this a thumbs up – or is it an index finger to the back of the throat? – for Tuffy Gosesiwisch at $2,300 as well.
Russell Martin, C: $4,000 – If you’re gonna pony up and want to be contrarian to everyone telling you to start Buster Posey (and yes they will and for good reason…and I’m writing this on Saturday, I don’t even need to look, I’m that confident…ps, if you can afford him in a cash game, start him…pps, I’m stuck in these parentheses, please send help), Martin should be batting in the 2-spot of that glorious Toronto LU. I’m not fully endorsing a stack against Masahiro Tanaka but I’m definitely not going near him. The reduced spring velocity in his last start and knowing he opted to not get surgery and rather rest a partially torn UCL in his elbow has me leerier than Dad doing a campus tour at your local University in the spring. Hrm, wrong kind of leery maybe but either way, I like Martin’s chances to get on base and score a run or two.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $5,000 – So you can only get one of the two DET 1B in your lineup which sucks because it makes it hard to do the Tiggy stack. As good as Hughes is, he’s still an extreme flyball pitcher and Cabrera has come out looking very healthy so far in ST. It’s hard to afford, but I’d want to try and slide Yoenis Cespedes and J.D. Martinez here as well for a chance at some homerun derby-like fun.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $4,700 – I’m all about paying up where I think it’s worth it. Something tells me that people won’t want to start batters against Madison Bumgarner. I mean, he was the WS MVP, on the cover of pretty much every fantasy and non-fantasy magazine, he has his own freaking underwear line…and yet I’m looking at those near 270 innings from last year and it’s giving me pause. If you plan on having multi-tourney entries, considering A.J. Pollock, Mark Trumbo, and Chris Owings here ain’t a bad idea.
Justin Smoak, 1B: $3,200 – Yankee Stadium is lefty heaven and even though Smoak is a lefty from hell, this might be the marriage betwixt them. All you need is one bomb or a 2 run double to make this work your way. It’s a 1B punt, something I’m not really hip on. Let’s just say ‘the stadium made me do it!’ and move on.
Chase Utley, 2B: $4,100 – If you’re going the Tiger stack route, Kinsler is probably your man here but Utley gives me the opportunity to point out something very important: Clay Buchholz is just not very good, especially his numbers against LHH last year. I know, I know, those were last year’s stats but hear me out. Clay gave up a .351 wOBA to opposing LHHs on the year and CBP plays well for those left-handed bats. If you wanna get insane in the membrane, stacking the Philly lefties like Chase, Ryan Howard, Grady Sizemore, and Cody Asche isn’t as ugly of an idea as you might think. Ok, it actually IS ugly but the results could be beautiful.
Jace Peterson, 2B: $3,100 – Atlanta’s offense is gonna be terrible this year, right? Ain’t no good gonna come from it, huh? Well, that’s probably right but is Salty a good catcher at throwing opposing speedsters out? In the words of Lana Kane: NOPE. This is totally a speed punt play and if you’re employing it, give Eric Young Jr. at $3,300 a look as well in your OF.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $4,100 – Want a crazy stat that probably doesn’t matter? Seager had a 25.4% HR/FB rate at home against RHPs last year. The opposite side of this spectrum of awesome? Jered Weaver has for his career just a 33.2% GB rate and has been pulling a Matt Cain with his xFIP for quite some time now. You never know when the wheels are gonna come off on statistical anomalies but opening day could be an eye opener for the Angels and company and he doesn’t exactly have the prettiest of numbers in Safeco the last three years. I’m not sure how popular it will be but I fully plan to deploy a Mariners stack in a multi-tourney entry and its currently sitting top 3 for me on the day. Yeah, I’m from the PNW and an M’s fan. Just let me dream, dammit!
Will Middlebrooks, 3B: $2,800 – Being honest, I just don’t like 3B prices for opening day. What I do like if I’m punting is that Will has a career 18.6% HR/FB rate against LHP for his career. Unfortunately, the lefty he gets is Kershaw. Who will win this battle? No one knows…but my money is on Clayton. Thankfully very little salary money needs to be spent on Middlebrooks to find out.
Everth Cabrera, SS: $3,200 – It’s not the perfect pricing for a punt play but Freddy Galvis costs the same so you tell me how it’s not. I wanna know where he’s at in the LU before I go all in here. If he’s leading off, I’m hopping in the EverCab today and having him take me to the bank so I can deposit all the money he gave me. Oh and if you want a further breakdown on Everth for the week at hand, take a look at J-FOH’s opening Creeper post of the season.
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $3,800 – He’s probably batting no lower than 3rd…hrm, yeah, that’s about as positive as I can get here. Rays offense looks terrible on paper. Jaso batting leadoff? Well that makes no sense, even Jennings as better than him there. Ehhhh, this is simply about opportunity at multiple at bats and AsCab has that covered. What it’s covered in, however, is an entirely different conversation.
Ryan Rua, OF: $3,100 – It’s here I would be suggesting Billy Burns at $2,500 but, well, someone has a funky positional eligibility process. This isn’t a punt play but more of an opportunistic grab at a cheap power bat. The lineup spot and the ballpark are indeed sub-optimal but if you’re needing a cheap OF shot at a double or two and an RBI, you’ll Rua the day skippin’ over Ryan.
Carlos Gomez, OF: $5,000 – I know, big duh over here but of all the matchups around the league that look the least intimidating for opening day, Kyle Kendrick tops the DK taco…or is it bottoms it? Either way, he’s gonna give you the runs. I meant that in baseball terms, silly! This is probably going to be the game that gets heavy DK hitter considerations so rather than belaboring the point, I’ll just say you can get some points from here with other MIL bats and move on.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The threats of rain for PIT@CIN might get more real as the day moves along but surprisingly, the weather seems nice on opening day…thanks global warming! For those who like their HRs a little gust-aided, the winds are blowing out to LF in Oaktown currently so a RHB or two with pull tendencies might put you in a happy place. Don’t worry, I’m not judging.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As expected, the COL@MIL game leads the pack with 8 1/2 runs with no major front runners for bad scoring game at the helm. Yeah, Vegas is playing it safe opening day. For those of you out there chasing wins, first off, have fun chasing Unicorns and second off, Kershaw has the best odds at -190 and is not so closely followed by Mad Max at -165. Something of interest? The opening line for the TOR@NYY game has gone up a half run and Vegas has lost a little confidence that the Yanks are gonna win the game. That’s funny, that’s just what I mentioned earlier! Wonder if Vegas read previews of blog posts…
