Does your lady like the finer things in life? When she says ‘lets go out to dinner’ does she mean ‘lets pull out a second mortgage on the house for a really tiny steak and snooty service?’. Well, first things first, dump her. I’m no Love Guru, but I do know when one of my good people is getting played. We’re all about bros before L.J. Hoes around here so don’t say we didn’t warn you! But since you’re not gonna listen (and I mean, I get it, you’re a fantasy baseball nerd and you probably scored a 10 with that kind of taste) at the very least I need to teach you how to bargain hunt for those goods. Did you know cashmere wool is actually hair and that it comes from goats? Well speaking of GOAT, let’s roll with this awkward segue and talk Scott Kazmir. In his first start of the year against Texas, the Kazmanian Devil scattered two walks and a hit over seven innings while striking out 10. Now we all knew the Rangers were gonna be a weaker team coming into the season but that’s just someone pitching like a top shelf starter and Scott should have another shot at such glory facing the Astros. Though the season is still early, Houston seems to have picked up right where they left off in 2014 in terms of striking out since as a team, their K% is second-worst in the MLB at 26.8%. Last year they finished second to last in K% at 23.8 so we’re not seeing a statistical outlier here as a majority of their roster from last year is back in 2015 with their major additions (Valbuena, Rasmus, and Gattis) being known to swing and miss a bit. Given that, who knows. Maybe Kazmir can help you afford the real cashmere and you can get in on those caviar dreams. Better sign a pre-nup, though! Here’s some other hot takes for the April 13th DK slate…
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Jacob deGrom, SP: $9,000 – I’m mainly gonna stay focused on the late slate since that’s what our contest for today is all about but I’ll sprinkle in a bit of early bird specials because Ralph challenged me to his contest and now I gotta do research so you’re just gonna have to suffer through it with me, m’kay? Nothing special to report here, really. The Phighting Phils are really only phighting phutility at this point. Anyone gonna take them up for their Ryan Howard 75% off sale? I hear the Yanks could use a good 33+ year old player or two…
Rick Porcello, SP: $6,600 – This one is all about whether or not Jayson Werth is back in the lineup on Monday because *CONJECTURE ALERT* teams tend to play up when one of their guys comes back from an injury. Look, I gots no stats for that but I’ve seen it with my own four-eyes! That was an ‘I wear glasses’ joke, not an ‘I have a medical condition’ one, BTW. Nats offense has been pretty bad so far and Porcello is Boston’s ace…there’s no joke there. I mean there IS, but…
Mike Leake, SP: $6,700 – It’s dangerous going against the Cubs but it can also be lucrative. The Cubs still whiff a lot like they did last year as so far they’re sitting at a 25.4% K rate on the young season and that’s without Javier Baez. Isn’t the reason they sent him down was his strikeouts? Seems like the whole team could use that!
Rubby De La Rosa, SP: $6,400 – This start scares the dickens out of me and…wait, I’ve now put ‘dick’ in the same line as I’m talking about ‘Rubby’. I might as well stop this analysis now before it gets worse. The Padres are an offensively improved team so there’s absolutely nothing safe nor sane about this call, just realize for as bad as his first start of the year was, De La Rosa still fanned five. Yes, I own him on my NFBC team and because he’s a two start pitcher I’m throwing him out there and I’m looking for silver linings here.
Stephen Vogt, 1B/C: $3,700 – He’s still under $4K. I’m not sure if DK has adjusted to the fact that Oakland’s offense is, in fact, good but I’ll keep buying in until they do. I’d make a ‘more like Stephen GOAT’ joke here if I hadn’t already in the lead used it. Only one recycled joke per day. I have standards! BTW, if you’re punting it’s probably Tuffy and not much else. I’d rather spend the $500 more to not be on Ross like most others would be.
Ike Davis, 1B: $2,800 – Yes, I’m suggesting an Oakland stack and no I wouldn’t normally ‘punt’ 1B but the Minute Maid Park does play to lefties well. Ike maybe goes yard but a double and an RBI or two would also suffice at this price.
Chris Davis, 1B/3B: $4,400 – A power lefty in a park that plays well to lefties? Sign me up! Hopefully Michael Pineda isn’t trying to recreate Predator where he’s playing Arnold. I believe you have a little something on your neck there, Pineda!
Alex Guerrero, 2B/SS: $2,800 – Will need to check and make sure Turner and Uribe are still out but this is likely the cheapest chance of getting a HR out of your 2B or SS slot on the night. Now after saying that, watch Nick Ahmed go yard…
Johnny Giavotella, 2B: $3,300 – The other prime stack of the night has to go to the Angels facing Detwiler. BTW, ‘Detwiler’ is German for ‘straight fastball’. Meanwhile, Giavotella is ‘Italian’ for ‘trash’ but don’t let my Rosetta Stone studies throw you off here; you throw your FB nearly 80% of the time for your career to Trout and company, you’re not long for this world.
David Freese, 3B: $4,200 – What did I just say above? Besides that, David is a career .316 hitter against southpaws and already has 2 HRs against them on the year (Vargas/Paxton). And no, you’ll get no Freese puns. Y’all best chill about that.
Zack Cozart, SS: $3,100 – The splits say that Cozart is better against lefties than he is against righties. Of course, over the last three years, that just means he hits .256 against southpaws vs .236 against RHP. He’s got some pop and is a cheap punt play if you’re into such things and you know no one will be playing him. Hrm, they probably have a good reason…
Collin Cowgill, OF: $3,200 – With Calhoun hurting and there being a lefty on the mound, there’s really no reason for the Angels not to lead off with Collin. As THEE Bruce Dickinson would say, ‘I gotta have more Cowgill!’.
Scott Van Slyke, OF: $3,800 – Now I wouldn’t go crazy here since most everyone knows about those splits with Scott (and most don’t realize 70% of his damage was against Wade Miley; either look it up or trust me cuz no stats for you!) but he’ll be in a good spot in the lineup tonight to produce some runs. If you can’t tell, a Dodgers stack isn’t off my radar tonight either.
Travis Snider, OF: $4,100 – Hit his first HR of the season last night and gets to keep hitting in cushy Camden Yards tonight. Apropos to nothing DK price-wise, I dropped a Travis Snider sleeper post on you this off-season saying those friendly confines might give him a power boost this year. Let’s keep this dream going!
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
You’ll want to keep your eye on the ATLvsMIA game. I would’ve said Shelby was in play but with scattered thunderstorms and over a 60% chance of precipitation on the evening, let’s say I’m looking elsewhere, especially since it’s an intradivision game and could just become a doubleheader tomorrow. Sadly, similar things could be said about the TEXvsLAA game. I still got a fever for Cowgill over here!
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas is basically handing Andrew Cashner the win tonight with a -165 line and with a 6.5 O/U, he should be a relatively safe play for cash games. Meanwhile, the line for TORvsTB has gone up a half run to 8.5 since the opening line, making Odorizzi a great tourney play if you wanna go the contrarian route.