Let the hard sell begin.  I feel like I’m that dealer with the bad comb over in the polyester suit at the used car lot trying to sell a jalopy.  Minus the car analogy, I feel like I’m describing Woody Harrelson in Kingpin.  You know the film and if you don’t, it’s streaming on Netflix right now.  And by right now, I mean when I wrote this.  If this post isn’t live before they’ve pulled it, mea culpa for getting you excited about it and also, mea culpa for getting you excited about it in general…it’s a Farrelly brothers movie and it’s not one of their best and ‘best + Farrelly bros’ google search should tell you all you need to know about that phrasing.  BTW, this post isn’t sponsored by Netflix…but it should be!  Seriously, Razz movie reviews.  When does this happen?  We can stick with the sports section.  We’ll cover every 30 for 30!  But I digress even further than I normally would.  Given how we all feel about Travis Snider at this point in his career, you’d think he was Roy Munson on the baseball field, metal hook for a hand and all.  It’s true, he never lived up to our dreams and probably won’t still.  But in a deep league setting, that ain’t our concern.  So with that in mind, let’s take a look at Snider and how he can help you with your nasty 7-10 split for the 2015 Fantasy Baseball season…

So first off: the trade happened.  Cool right?  Nah, it ain’t cool.  I had this sucker written two days before that shizz went down and now I have to do some massive editing.  I mean, I’m happy we know he should get the PT chance he deserves with the Orioles but from the writer’s side of things, I’m currently retyping this with only two fingers, one from each hand.  You know what I’m sayin…anyway, the stats that lead me to talk about Travis are still valid.  Snider saw a surge in his batted ball distance, going from 273.07 in 2013 to 301.68 in 2014.  That was the 3rd best growth in batted ball distance last year behind only Marcell Ozuna (breakout season) and Drew Stubbs (he plays in Colorado…duh).  To be fair, though, that stat doesn’t really say much.  Tyler Flowers had the 4th highest.  Tyler Flowers hit .241 and struck out 36% of the time, making Chris Carter look like Ichiro Suzuki.  All this to say, it’s not indicative of success, fantasy or otherwise.  But the other cool stat was his K%; Snider has been a little too much of a windmill for his career with a 25% K-rate.  However, in 2014 he was able to chop that number down to a respectable 18.7% to go with a healthy 9.5% BB-rate.  Keep in mind this was over 359 plate appearances so we’re not talking about a statistical aberration.  The stats tend to say he’s now more selective at the plate and it’s resulting in squaring up more pitches.  Now one other concern of note: the ground ball rate.  He’s supposed to be a power hitter and his GB% last year was 49.4% and for his career, he’s never had it lower than 40% except his rookie year in 2008.  That said, his career HR/FB% is a respectable 13.3% (with 2014 seeing it at 16.5%).  Dayan Viciedo hit 21 HRs last year with a 45% GB rate and a much worse batted ball profile.  In other words, Snider could poke out 18-20 while holding down a respectable average above .260 if he holds his gains from 2014.  When you also consider that Camden Yards plays very well to lefties, a surprise 25 HR campaign isn’t too crazy of an idea.  So forget the career that never really began with Snider.  Instead, think of Camden as his Vegas and every pitcher as his Ernie McCracken while he bats with a prosthetic right hand…yeah, you’re now gonna go watch Kingpin.  Run, before it’s no longer on streaming!  Oh and draft Travis…yeah, that too.

 
  1. Nico says:
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    Heyo Sky! I’m looking forward to catching Snider at O’s games this summer. Off topic (obvs!), but what are your thoughts on Patrick Corbin and his realistic possibility of starting to pitch in June?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Nico: Nice! I think Corbin will be back around June but timeline wise, 18 months is my starting point for TJ pitchers. Unless its a keeper, I think he’ll be back but he’s gonna take some lumps while he’s at it. I don’t think he’ll be successful in 2015 for fantasy purposes.

  2. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    Who is Big Ern then?

    • Nico says:
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      @Smokey: What do you two think about Ryan Cook? Totally out for the closer job this year or what?

      • Smokey

        Smokey says:
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        @Nico: If Clippard faulters then it’s cook until Doolittle is back

        • Nico says:
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          @Smokey: Worth a 33rd round pick in this NFBC. Thanks Smoke!

          • Smokey

            Smokey says:
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            @Nico: well it depends on what other relievers are there. I mean I prefer Otero in that bullpen to some, but what else is there. If you wanna hit me up on twitter so we don’t hijack Sky’s post that’s cool to

            • Nico says:
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              @Smokey: Will do.

  3. Alcesto says:
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    Kingpin is definitely the Farrelly Bros best movie and Travis snider is bad at baseball. You should probably take long look at yourself in the mirror before writing another post.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Alcesto: Not a good way to make friends, Alcesto.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Alcesto: sheesh, lets hash this out. I agree with the Kingpin statement but lets break down the Snider stance and the people skillls

  4. Happy Vegans says:
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    Interesting post, Sky. Like you, I’ve had him on my radar but I’m worried about his split issues. I’m in a deep league with weekly changes so he probably doesn’t fit for me. On the other hand, a daily league candidate for sure… at least for me. Seems to mash lefties, not so much righties.

    Good work… always enjoy the perspectives.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Thanks! Those numbers against LHP aren’t heavily weighted from 2014(47 PA); I looked at them as an outlier given his career numbers against (.249) and I wouldn’t put much stock in them. His .245 against RHP is more the sturdier number but Baltimore plays better to lefties than most parks, especially when compared to PNC. He’s not being brought in to be on the thin side of the platoon if he becomes the starter since he’s a LHH, I can promise that.

      • Happy Vegans says:
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        @Sky: Good points.

  5. Baezaworldseries says:
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    Happy PI day!!!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      So wish it were yesterday for the pun factor but right back atcha!

  6. joeg414 says:
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    Hey Sky, just drafted in my 13 Team 6×6 , roto , Deep League. Thoughts ?
    Drafted 13th. Go Nats !
    Pick.
    13 Bryce Harper, Wsh OF
    14 Ian Desmond, Wsh SS
    39 Kyle Seager, Sea 3B
    40 Jorge Soler, ChC OF
    65 Gerrit Cole, Pit SP
    66 Carlos Santana, Cle 3B
    91 Jake Arrieta, ChC SP
    92 Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 3B
    117 Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh SP – Keeper
    118 Xander Bogaerts, Bos 3B
    143 Jose Quintana, CWS SP
    144 Avisail Garcia, CWS OF
    169 Tyler Clippard, Oak RP
    170 Anthony Rendon, Wsh 2B – Keeper
    195 Andrew Miller, NYY RP
    196 Brad Boxberger, TB RP
    221 Travis d’Arnaud, NYM C
    222 Kennys Vargas, Min DH
    247 James Paxton, Sea SP
    248 Desmond Jennings, TB OF
    273 C.J. Cron, LAA 1B
    274 Drew Pomeranz, Oak SP
    Bench
    299 Kendrys Morales, KC 1B
    300 Adam Ottavino, Col RP
    325 Juan Lagares, NYM OF
    326 Joel Peralta, LAD RP
    351 Brad Miller, Sea SS
    352 Marco Gonzales, StL RP
    377 Henderson Alvarez, Mia SP

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @joeg414: Without knowing the full setup of your league (how many you start and where), it’s hard to give a full gauge but here are my initial thoughts.

      I’m assuming your league overvalues closers since you didn’t come out with one but you did finish with a lot of handcuffs. Could pay off handsomely but you’ll definitely need to be everyone else to waivers if/when one becomes available. Similarly, you didn’t draft a lot of speed which is also fine but you’ll be stumping there in season as well. All and all, a solid roster where as long as you know what you need to do in season could be very competitive.

      • Joeg414 says:
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        @Sky: thanks for the feedback . We start 13 hitters and 9 pitchers . Yes Clisers went a little early this year , but I never “pay” for Saves. And I just missed on a few young Starters at the end.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Gotcha. You should be fine as long as you know your deficiencies and are aggressive fixing them in season.

  7. J-FOH says:
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    we had the FCL draft last night. I wept a little when you weren’t there

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      That’s funny, I slept fine.

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Sky: you were our comedic catalyst

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @J-FOH: Well now I feel bad for you all

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Sky: its sad

  8. TarmanGotHim says:
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    Sky!!

    First question for you heading into the season!!

    So, I am extremely extremely extremely high on Kennys Vargas. I can see him as a 75/25/90/0/.285 type guy.

    What are your thoughts on him?

    I do 12 Team H2H 5X5 money leagues. I will be in 4 leagues and for the most part, I have my strategy down. I just tend to go with the flow from rounds 16 and on. Meaning. After I get 1B, 3B, SS or 2B, OF OF OF and 1 UTIL Spot, 3 SP spots, I pretty much go SP, RP, SP, RP, UTIL, SP the rest of the way and 1-2 bench bats.

    2nd questions, depending on my team, I’ve been aiming for Yelich or a Cespedes tier player for my first UTIL spot, who do you see having a huge breakout season?

    I’m looking at guys like Pollock, Vargas, Avisail, Segura, Boegearts, Danny Santana as a second UTIL player. Would you rather have a higher tier player in both spots?

    Thanks for taking your time to read and answer!!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @TarmanGotHim:

      Hey Tarman!

      Kennys is a breakout candidate but I think .285 is an extremely lofty expectation given his K% and BB%. Think he’ll be useful but still a year away from being that kind of impact bat.

      I don’t think either player is a breakout candidate. Yelich maybe improves a little but his breakout is 15/30. Not sure he’s gonna get there this year

      I’m not sure how to answer this question? Take from here or another tier? I’m assuming you’re referring to some set of rankings. Either way, I like Avisail and Pollock, don’t mind Vargas. Not sure why you’d target a shortstop as your second UTIL.

  9. Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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    ozuna had a 50% GB rate last year along with his breakout season; so it’s sometimes possible. but he’ll likely regress right on down to 20 homers or so. But his steals really should be higher too.

Comments are closed.